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Lois Diony - The Statistical Freak

Olé

By Olé
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Olé

Olé

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Briefly pondering on the ineptitude of Diony as his latest film-myself-driving Instagram flashed across my phone, I had a look at WhoScored.com (fantastic data reference for the minutiae of the game) to see quite how bad he is on paper. In nearly three and a half hours of football for us, he hasn't scored, he's had just one shot, and the team as a whole has failed to score the entire time that he's been on the pitch. Dive into the detail and he's the only player at the club to be worst or among the worst in every single relevant category.

721700181_ScreenShot2018-05-03at10_23_59.thumb.png.8ed0750daae7b94177a46c90d2d3f4da.png

Hindsight is obviously easy, but I think you'd be hard pushed to find a professional club that on paper has signed a statistically more inept forward player this season and I am waiting with much anticipation for the oddly quiet Mark Ashton to reprise his usual summer recess video - to see how he maintains his self-congratulatory tone on transfer activity.

Incidentally, rather than painting Diony as some kind of statistically awful freak of nature, the rational explanation would be to put these different stats all down to coincidence, bad luck and bad form.... but as someone pointed out on Twitter this week, Saint-Etienne's record before and after his move, makes the statistical meltdown beyond remarkable:

  • Saint-Etienne before his 25/01 transfer: LDLLDLDLLLLL
  • Saint-Etienne since his 25/01 transfer: WWDWDDDWWDWWW

As the club are big fans of data, I keep wondering why we haven't just looked at all the evidence and written off the loan and sent him back already rather than sponsoring his London shopping trips and highly dubious approach to driving. But when I look at the records above, perhaps Saint-Etienne are actually paying us a bonus to keep him away from them. 

Odds on him being part of the lap of honour on Sunday?

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BobBobSuperBob

BobBobSuperBob

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10 minutes ago, Olé said:

Briefly pondering on the ineptitude of Diony as his latest film-myself-driving Instagram flashed across my phone, I had a look at WhoScored.com (fantastic data reference for the minutiae of the game) to see quite how bad he is on paper. In nearly three and a half hours of football for us, he hasn't scored, he's had just one shot, and the team as a whole has failed to score the entire time that he's been on the pitch. Dive into the detail and he's the only player at the club to be worst or among the worst in every single relevant category.

721700181_ScreenShot2018-05-03at10_23_59.thumb.png.8ed0750daae7b94177a46c90d2d3f4da.png

Hindsight is obviously easy, but I think you'd be hard pushed to find a professional club that on paper has signed a statistically more inept forward player this season and I am waiting with much anticipation for the oddly quiet Mark Ashton to reprise his usual summer recess video - to see how he maintains his self-congratulatory tone on transfer activity.

Incidentally, rather than painting Diony as some kind of statistically awful freak of nature, the rational explanation would be to put these different stats all down to coincidence, bad luck and bad form.... but as someone pointed out on Twitter this week, Saint-Etienne's record before and after his move, makes the statistical meltdown beyond remarkable:

  • Saint-Etienne before his 25/01 transfer: LDLLDLDLLLLL
  • Saint-Etienne since his 25/01 transfer: WWDWDDDWWDWWW

As the club are big fans of data, I keep wondering why we haven't just looked at all the evidence and written off the loan and sent him back already rather than sponsoring his London shopping trips and highly dubious approach to driving. But when I look at the records above, perhaps Saint-Etienne are actually paying us a bonus to keep him away from them. 

Odds on him being part of the lap of honour on Sunday?

Incredible

I’ve said Ole - I cannot see how we can possibly have actually watched Diony in the months preceding our January swoop on him - A player doesn’t turn that bad / fall that far from any hint of professional form or ability overnight

Would love to hear their ‘explanation’

 

Some more for for your statistics 

He has posted 43 videos of himself driving through the city centre

Spent 23 nights in London Shopping

£3731 on train fares

£687 on black cabs

£37,013  in Selfridges 

 

 

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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His work at Dijon is disregarded is it? 11 goals, 8 assists in a struggling side in 31 starts and 4 sub appearances is rather good. Seeing that data though (before we even get onto his 'performances' for us)- genuinely like 2 different players!

That said, we clearly clearly got this one badly wrong. Disruptive? May well be- perhaps his season at Dijon was a fluke too, should certainly based on that have been a lot better than what he's shown this year. Hard to explain a drop off in output between seasons to that level.

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Olé

Olé

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14 minutes ago, EmissionImpossible said:

Whilst he may be dreadful I’m not sure that relatively small sample of information can be used to prove/support it. 

It's a fair point and I did a double take and cross-checked to see how much his data was skewed by playing so little. It isn't.

Hegeler, Eliasson and Woodrow have each played not much more time than Diony, and have 5, 3 and 10 shots versus his 1.

Engvall has played a grand total of 13 minutes in 2 league sub appearances with 75% pass completion and no mis-control.

Over 3 hours is enough to see that he doesn't shoot, he doesn't setup teammates, he can't pass, and mis-controls the ball.

Add in that he's offside or fouls more frequently than more or less everyone else, and I'm not sure we want a larger sample! 

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ZiderEyed

ZiderEyed

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1 minute ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

Especially given he was originally draft pick one ahead of Diedhiou.

Ahead of Kodjia as well wasn't he? Honestly there needs to be a big inquest in to our recruitment, there's a fantastic amount of dross at the club currently.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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9 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

Especially given he was originally draft pick one ahead of Diedhiou.

How do we explain 11 goals and 8 assists for Dijon the year before?

It attracted interest from clubs in England and big clubs in France- there's got to be some sort of talent in there somewhere. Not defending the signing but he clearly did well last season.

Birmingham, Bournemouth and Brighton all interested last summer. For a bit of balance, some sort of graph from his season at Dijon.

C7YTioZXwAMiPN1.jpg

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Esmond Million's Bung

Esmond Million's Bung

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Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

How do we explain 11 goals and 8 assists for Dijon the year before?

It attracted interest from clubs in England and big clubs in France- there's got to be some sort of talent in there somewhere. Not defending the signing but he clearly did well last season.

Teams promoted here in France usually have one successful season and then the struggle begins, also especially for strikers the transformation from French football to English football is huge jump in mainly the physical side and pace of the game, something our Famara is still coming to terms with, for such a big muscular guy he is all too often very easy to move off of the ball.

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nebristolred

nebristolred

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The guy clearly had talent - his record before St Etienne wasn't an accident. His cameo's for us have been when we've been playing crap as a team, and have been mainly sub appearances.

It's fair to say this signing hasn't worked out but I'd stop well short of saying that he's our worst ever signing. In his first appearance for us he actually had a pretty impressive turn of pace.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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Just now, Esmond Million's Bung said:

Teams promoted here in France usually have one successful season and then the struggle begins, also especially for strikers the transformation from French football to English football is huge jump in mainly the physical side and pace of the game, something our Famara is still coming to terms with, for such a big muscular guy he is all too often very easy to move off of the ball.

Thanks, that's interesting to know. See a bit of French football, it's good technically but slower and less physical for sure. So we think it was just a freak season for him maybe at Dijon last year?

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GrahamC

GrahamC

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Is it not beyond possibility that his year at Dijon was simply his one good year?

He really struggled at St. Etienne and obviously has with us, too.

The gamble was taking someone on loan so clearly in such poor form.

I know it isn’t a popular view but I honestly believe we would have been better off persevering with Woodrow.

Every time he appeared as a sub he worked hard, putting the opposition back four under pressure (I acknowledge Taylor does this too, but he has been out injured).

Ole’s stats also show in addition to his excellent goal v Derby that he was at least some sort of a goal threat in his time on the pitch, too.

Finally despite being (I would expect) a bit fed up with the way the season has gone for him, no instagram nonsense from him, either.

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Esmond Million's Bung

Esmond Million's Bung

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thanks, that's interesting to know. See a bit of French football, it's good technically but slower and less physical for sure. So we think it was just a freak season for him maybe at Dijon last year?

I was actually at Diedhiou's penultimate game for Angers in Lorient and he looked a beast in an Angers team set up with him totally as a totally isolated loan striker, the Lorient back line struggled with his physicality, but sadly in England the physicality of defenders is 'real' and he needs to wise up, he is slowly getting there and the times he did stay on his feet especially in the penalty area usually brought him success.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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Just now, Esmond Million's Bung said:

I was actually at Diedhiou's penultimate game for Angers in Lorient and he looked a beast in an Angers team set up with him totally as a totally isolated loan striker, the Lorient back line struggled with his physicality, but sadly in England the physicality of defenders is 'real' and he needs to wise up, he is slowly getting there and the times he did stay on his feet especially in the penalty area usually brought him success.

Obviously Diedhiou as a lone striker here is a non starter and should be a non starter because of Reid, but I have wondered if he could- provided flanked by wingers- have performed that role for us to a decent standard?

Agree with what you say about him too, big gap in physicality but he is getting there steadily. Think he's done alright for us this year and should be stronger- both physically and performance wise- after a full season to learn, another full preseason etc.

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phantom

phantom

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25 minutes ago, alexukhc said:

Still would like to know why he got arrested

 

1 hour ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

He has posted 43 videos of himself driving through the city centre

Surely this is a criminal offence?

A bit like the Tammy incident, it only seemed to come public after word got out on here - but this time around it's stayed real "hush hush"

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Olé

Olé

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15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

How do we explain 11 goals and 8 assists for Dijon the year before?

I've tried to look into this but nowhere carries much data about Dijon's 2015/16 matches and scorers/times - however:

It was for a team that finished comfortably second in the second tier, regularly scoring at least 2-3 goals a match, and scoring 62 goals (Diony 18% of them, and 7% of their assists). It's quite possible from those shares, that he was an average part of a very successful team, or even a flat-track bully. No one talks about Phil Jevons anymore... 

In the same season, Famara Diedhiou scored 21 goals and also had 4 assists for a team that finished down in 7th in the same division. 

You can interrogate the actual performance stats for Diony in that Dijon season, via this (look at the Dijon row, and use the "Detailed" tab for more granularity):

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/232587/History/Lois-Diony

  • Shot every 48 minutes (vs 200 min at City)
  • Setup teammate every 55 minutes (vs 200 min at City)
  • 72% pass completion (vs 56% at City)
  • Miscontrol every 26 minutes (vs 17 min at City)
  • Failed pass every 17 minutes (vs 9 min at City)
  • Offside every 134 minutes (vs 100 min at City)
  • Foul every 60 minutes (vs 33 min at City)

Fairly obviously the Championship is a much higher standard than French second tier and that has found him out. And although we struck gold with Kodjia and Diedhiou, there was negative comment on Diony on Twitter from Saint-Etienne fans prior to us singing him (they're still taking the p--- now) so he was already a bit of a different case.

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Olé

Olé

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23 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Is it not beyond possibility that his year at Dijon was simply his one good year?

I feel the same way Graham. I hate to be that person who infers about people's whole lives from their social media, but having seen his, I would not be surprised in the slightest if the truth about Diony is that one half decent - but not defining - season (and money that followed) went to his head, and he lost all focus or determination to keep progressing as a certainty incomplete 25 year old footballer. I don't see someone who cares about anything other than his lifestyle and friends. Football barely warrants a mention.

I also agree that Woodrow would at least have been the least worst option with some proven previous in the Championship, but again that is hindsight. Certainly he would have been a far far better option away at Burton, a ground he had played and scored regularly on, and on a pitch where we needed to get the ball in the air such was the dire standard of the playing surface. Diony came on in that game and for my money had the most hopeless of all his appearances in a City shirt (albeit sadly that's a close run thing).

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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27 minutes ago, Olé said:

I've tried to look into this but nowhere carries much data about Dijon's 2015/16 matches and scorers/times - however:

It was for a team that finished comfortably second in the second tier, regularly scoring at least 2-3 goals a match, and scoring 62 goals (Diony 18% of them, and 7% of their assists). It's quite possible from those shares, that he was an average part of a very successful team, or even a flat-track bully. No one talks about Phil Jevons anymore... 

In the same season, Famara Diedhiou scored 21 goals and also had 4 assists for a team that finished down in 7th in the same division. 

You can interrogate the actual performance stats for Diony in that Dijon season, via this (look at the Dijon row, and use the "Detailed" tab for more granularity):

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/232587/History/Lois-Diony

  • Shot every 48 minutes (vs 200 min at City)
  • Setup teammate every 55 minutes (vs 200 min at City)
  • 72% pass completion (vs 56% at City)
  • Miscontrol every 26 minutes (vs 17 min at City)
  • Failed pass every 17 minutes (vs 9 min at City)
  • Offside every 134 minutes (vs 100 min at City)
  • Foul every 60 minutes (vs 33 min at City)

Fairly obviously the Championship is a much higher standard than French second tier and that has found him out. And although we struck gold with Kodjia and Diedhiou, there was negative comment on Diony on Twitter from Saint-Etienne fans prior to us singing him (they're still taking the p--- now) so he was already a bit of a different case.

His 11 and 8 season for Dijon was last season- in Ligue 1.

Definitely I wouldn't compare his Ligue 2 to the Championship- the difference is standard is clear for all to see, but his Ligue 1 form in 16/17 was why clubs from England and big clubs in France, were definitely interested in him.

Whoscored is a great tool, it's a shame it only gives the existing season for more detailed stats and metrics.  However from a summary of the detailed headline figures from St Etienne v Dijon times, it's striking that offensively and passing in particular, he was significantly better at Dijon than St Etienne- even when removing headline figures like goals and assists which I guess are the end result, bottom line.

Passing (these are averages):

  • 1.5 key passes per game at Dijon vs 0.3 at St Etienne.
  • 18.2 passes per game at Dijon vs 10.3 at St Etienne.
  • 0.4 crosses per game at Dijon v 0.1 at St Etienne.
  • 0.3 long balls per game at Dijon v none at St Etienne.

The only similarity is passing accuracy (72.4 v 67.1 respectively).

Offensive (as above, averages):

  • 1.7 Shots per game at Dijon v 1 at St Etienne (thinking about it, that's surely shocking for a striker on both counts)?
  • 1.5 Key Passes per game at Dijon v 0.3 at St Etienne.
  • 1.5 Dribbles per game at Dijon v 0.5 at St Etienne.
  • 1.5 times fouled per game at Dijon v 1.1 at St Etienne (indicative he was causing defences more issues at Dijon than St Etienne).
  • 0.6 times caught offside per game at Dijon v 0.4 at St Etienne (getting in better positions more frequently? :dunno: ).

Maybe the side was built around him, for him at Dijon- who knows.

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Fiale

Fiale

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1 hour ago, Olé said:

Briefly pondering on the ineptitude of Diony as his latest film-myself-driving Instagram flashed across my phone, I had a look at WhoScored.com (fantastic data reference for the minutiae of the game) to see quite how bad he is on paper. In nearly three and a half hours of football for us, he hasn't scored, he's had just one shot, and the team as a whole has failed to score the entire time that he's been on the pitch. Dive into the detail and he's the only player at the club to be worst or among the worst in every single relevant category.

721700181_ScreenShot2018-05-03at10_23_59.thumb.png.8ed0750daae7b94177a46c90d2d3f4da.png

Hindsight is obviously easy, but I think you'd be hard pushed to find a professional club that on paper has signed a statistically more inept forward player this season and I am waiting with much anticipation for the oddly quiet Mark Ashton to reprise his usual summer recess video - to see how he maintains his self-congratulatory tone on transfer activity.

Incidentally, rather than painting Diony as some kind of statistically awful freak of nature, the rational explanation would be to put these different stats all down to coincidence, bad luck and bad form.... but as someone pointed out on Twitter this week, Saint-Etienne's record before and after his move, makes the statistical meltdown beyond remarkable:

  • Saint-Etienne before his 25/01 transfer: LDLLDLDLLLLL
  • Saint-Etienne since his 25/01 transfer: WWDWDDDWWDWWW

As the club are big fans of data, I keep wondering why we haven't just looked at all the evidence and written off the loan and sent him back already rather than sponsoring his London shopping trips and highly dubious approach to driving. But when I look at the records above, perhaps Saint-Etienne are actually paying us a bonus to keep him away from them. 

Odds on him being part of the lap of honour on Sunday?

 

wow that is some change of form, it's like siphoned all our form across the channel - was Diony the conduit ?

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