What is the minimum fee we would accept for Bobby

[CotswoldRed]

7 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

I think it’s pretty clear that our players, on the whole, are not as good as the first half of the season suggested. Rather like a cup performance or cup run, everyone can raise their game on occasion, but aren’t capable of doing it throughout a whole season. Much like the players in most teams. The ones (few) that do, get promoted. 

Only Wolves & Cardiff have really maintained their levels throughout the season. Most others have had good & bad spells. Same as every other division, in every league, all over the world. 

 

Due to many factors I'd agree that you can over-perform, especially combined with a bit of luck. But over half a season? 

If you can perform at the level we did for that period of time I think the sensible view is that the players are very talented. 

That's not to say they will keep that up over a season but an apparent irretrievable loss of form leading to a complete change of tactics for the second half of the season says that the boss has lost belief in what he used to believe in. Hence recent posts questioning what the clubs tactical/playing ethos now is. 

I'm at a complete loss to explain his actions, particularly with tactics, especially as they appear not to work.

In a team meeting if one of the senior players was to ask "boss, why don't we approach the next game in the same way we did in during November, using the same players?".. what would his response be? 

"No, that won't work, let's do what we've done since January"? 

[ExiledAjax]

One thing I would hope we would try for would be a bonus payment in case of an England cap.  If he goes to somewhere like Bournemouth and nabs 3-4 goals in August/September then there's no reason at all that he couldn't make the England squad for the games in September.  Yes it would need a few injuries to the usual suspects but in a post-world cup season there will be cries for a refresh of the squad.

Not saying it is likely, but I'd be hoping for an extra £1m or so should Bobby get the call.

[Mr Popodopolous]

32 minutes ago, CotswoldRed said:

Due to many factors I'd agree that you can over-perform, especially combined with a bit of luck. But over half a season? 

If you can perform at the level we did for that period of time I think the sensible view is that the players are very talented. 

That's not to say they will keep that up over a season but an apparent irretrievable loss of form leading to a complete change of tactics for the second half of the season says that the boss has lost belief in what he used to believe in. Hence recent posts questioning what the clubs tactical/playing ethos now is. 

I'm at a complete loss to explain his actions, particularly with tactics, especially as they appear not to work.

In a team meeting if one of the senior players was to ask "boss, why don't we approach the next game in the same way we did in during November, using the same players?".. what would his response be? 

"No, that won't work, let's do what we've done since January"? 

The thing is, overperformance can happen for a number of months or a season. It's rare but sometimes a perfect storm can kick in and it can happen.

Case in point is Reading last season- now I think they are better than relegation fodder, but are nowhere near top 6- and that has kind of been proven in some ways- all of their numbers in 16/17 pointed to the idea they were seriously overperforming. To give one example only, they had the 6th least shots on goal in the division last season per game and conceding the 3rd most- possible that they were getting and conceding them in perfect areas but that doesn't tend to replicate itself. 9th most shots on target though, but again the 3rd worst defence in terms of SOT conceded. Ipswich are another who should be somewhat lower down, but they are hard to beat I guess.

I wouldn't put us in that category, we have more depth for one and our numbers in terms of performance indicators are better but possibly 2nd was above where we should realistically have been. Blew it in terms of playoffs though!

[Bar BS3]

22 minutes ago, CotswoldRed said:

Due to many factors I'd agree that you can over-perform, especially combined with a bit of luck. But over half a season? 

If you can perform at the level we did for that period of time I think the sensible view is that the players are very talented. 

That's not to say they will keep that up over a season but an apparent irretrievable loss of form leading to a complete change of tactics for the second half of the season says that the boss has lost belief in what he used to believe in. Hence recent posts questioning what the clubs tactical/playing ethos now is. 

I'm at a complete loss to explain his actions, particularly with tactics, especially as they appear not to work.

In a team meeting if one of the senior players was to ask "boss, why don't we approach the next game in the same way we did in during November, using the same players?".. what would his response be? 

"No, that won't work, let's do what we've done since January"? 

Well put & I agree with that. I don’t think the answer is always that easy to pin point. If it was then Leeds, Ipswich and ourselves would have rectified it. 

Is arguably easier in the first half of the season, before teams at both ends begin battling harder towards the “business end”..? Probably Fulham & Millwall would say “no”.

We definitely have talent in the squad. Are they left carrying others, unable to impact the game as they wish..? Perhaps. 

I’d be very happy to see replacents bought in for the likes of Pisano & Mags, neither of whom are good enough for the top end of the championship. Question marks loom over the consistency of some others, who can be fantastic, but can equally be poor. 

I simply don’t think we are good enough, yet. We are improving, but I think it will be another 2 or 3 seasons before we are genuine promotion challengers. Having said that, also fear for us next season (at this point in time) and a relegation battle could well be on the cards, but of course, we have all summer to address that. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

With regards a fee for Reid, between £8-10m?

That's if we sell him, of course- and we shouldn't

. No lower than £8m though IMO.

5 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

In the last 5 years, we’ve had Baldock, Kodjia, Tammy, Fammy & Reid. I’m not sure how you think it would be impossible for us to find a replacement again..?! 

Don't forget Tomlin- excellent for a time!

The thing is, it's hard to keep replacing strikers and getting it right- moreover hard to, even if they're good on paper, have the right attributes- sometimes it doesn't work. Puts a bit of pressure on and there's no guarantees with any of it- player doesn't fit despite being talented, could easily happen. Got to be looking at keeping Reid IMO.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 hours ago, gl1 said:

If we are serious about progressing, don’t we need to keep Reid, Bryan, and Flint and strengthen the weaknesses elsewhere, such as GK, RB and Attacking mid field? 

I know we are not a glamour club and it’s hard to complete, but if teams like Stoke, Huddersfield, Bournemouth, Cardiff, Reading, and Burnley can compete, why can’t we? Of all the teams listed above we are one of the biggest with regards to facilities and current attendances. 

Most of those have the facilities tbh- Burnley and Bournemouth the notable exceptions. The latter also flouted FFP in a way that would not be tolerated today.

Agree with the thrust of your post- Reid, Bryan, Flint- and of course Pack gotta keep him too!

[Super]

143 million.

[Olé]

I know the year left on his contract puts us in a limited position, but we've simply got to find a way to do a lot better than £6m

In today's market that's peanuts for a EFL team of the season player with more combined goals and assists than anyone else.

At a wild guess, our strike rate to produce a player of that magnitude will be once every 10 years, so we need to make it count.

The "return" must be symbolic of our investment in the academy, so it needs to get closer to our outlay over that long a period.

 

When we talk about LJ's transfer spending, people often forget we must spend £1-2m a year simply on operating an academy.

We've yet to have a big direct payback on that investment, and Bobby has been a part of it since he was 12. You do the maths.

As such, the club has invested far too much in Bobby's "pathway" to let him go for a sum that would barely cover his stand in.

It needs to be £10m+ so that the club can put half of it in the bank as ROI for the academy, and the rest getting a replacement.

 

Easier said than done of course, but a new deal with signing on fee and release clause or even pre-agreed transfer, is a must.

Take a £6m "bird in the hand" for Reid now and we'll make very little inroads into the economics of a self-sufficient academy. 

[NcnsBcfc]

I think the issue isn't what do we expect. Rather, what clubs are willing to offer.

We are not in a great position negotiation wise. With only 12 months left and him being over 25( no compensation).

Bobby has had a great season, and has surpassed everyone's expectations; but who's to say he will continue in that vein of form next year.

I think it's a massive risk to not agree a figure and then leave it to Jan 2019; when we are struggling and having to sell.

I reckon £6-8 million will get him personally. It's not what he's worth (on the basis  of this season in isolation). If it's towards the lower end of that estimation, he will still go though. We can't set up the team for next season on a player that may be gone 3 months later.

 

[TheCulturalBomb]

£10m as a player we don't need to sell and one of the highest goal scorers this season.

[Bar BS3]

I think a lot of people are completely missing the point, that it’s largely in Bobby’s hands. 

If we only get offers of £3/4/5million this summer, we’d have to evaluate if it’s worth selling him for that amount, in line with our plans. 

As it stands (which I believe is that Bobby’s been offered a contract but won’t sign it) our hands our tied. In Jan the offers will half again, or this time next season he walks for nothing. 

Facts are that that reduces his value significantly. 

[Carey 6]

Hogan joined Villa from Brentford for 9 million with 18 months on his contract. Similar age, only had one good season at the level before also. 

Think those hoping for 10m+ are very optimistic.

[Mr Popodopolous]

25 minutes ago, TheCulturalBomb said:

£10m as a player we don't need to sell and one of the highest goal scorers this season.

That's a key bit- if we were any number of clubs at this level, we would need to sell- FFP and that.

We have no such FFP issues so we can be a bit more discerning- however a good chunk of this League don't have that luxury.

[Bar BS3]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's a key bit- if we were any number of clubs at this level, we would need to sell- FFP and that.

We have no such FFP issues so we can be a bit more discerning- however a good chunk of this League don't have that luxury.

We DO have to sell, unless we are willing to see him leave for peanuts in January or nothing whatsoever next summer. 

We’ve offered him a contract, he’s not signed it and everything I’ve heard from him sounds like he’s happy to stay another year, before moving on. I don’t think that’s much good for us, so I’d be amazed if he wasn’t sold this summer. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Bar BS3 said:

We DO have to sell, unless we are willing to see him leave for peanuts in January or nothing whatsoever next summer. 

We’ve offered him a contract, he’s not signed it and everything I’ve heard from him sounds like he’s happy to stay another year, before moving on. I don’t think that’s much good for us, so I’d be amazed if he wasn’t sold this summer. 

I mean financially speaking at this time, there's no huge imperative that says for example 'must sell or risk a transfer embargo'. A decent number of clubs at this level are walking a bit of a financial tightrope- us? Not so much.

Obviously we wouldn't want nothing for him, but could it be worth a gamble keeping him one more year to see if he can help us to the playoffs say? I mean, if he can replicate this season or get close to it, we're bound to have a shot at it.

[Bar BS3]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I mean financially speaking at this time, there's no huge imperative that says for example 'must sell or risk a transfer embargo'. A decent number of clubs at this level are walking a bit of a financial tightrope- us? Not so much.

Obviously we wouldn't want nothing for him, but could it be worth a gamble keeping him one more year to see if he can help us to the playoffs say? I mean, if he can replicate this season or get close to it, we're bound to have a shot at it.

We didn’t have a shot at the play offs when Tammy scored more than Bobby has done. 

We don’t HAVE to sell, no. But we can’t really afford not to either. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

We didn’t have a shot at the play offs when Tammy scored more than Bobby has done. 

We don’t HAVE to sell, no. But we can’t really afford not to either. 

Think we've got a better squad now, in some respects (hamstrung badly though it is by 4-4-2).

Just me probably, but I'd keep him for one more year basically and see if we can get that bit further- playoffs. Assuming we won't have the Cup run or injury crisis again this coming season which will help with the stability. Just think he's an excellent player for us, very important to how we play- and particularly the case when we had Paterson behind Reid in that great period- so I'd be really loath to sell him at all this summer.

[Bar BS3]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Think we've got a better squad now, in some respects (hamstrung badly though it is by 4-4-2).

Just me probably, but I'd keep him for one more year basically and see if we can get that bit further- playoffs. Assuming we won't have the Cup run or injury crisis again this coming season which will help with the stability. Just think he's an excellent player for us, very important to how we play- and particularly the case when we had Paterson behind Reid in that great period- so I'd be really loath to sell him at all this summer.

Of course we’d all like to keep him..!

I just don’t think it’s likely for a club that are losing money and need to invest in several other areas. 

[oldstandrobin]

3 hours ago, NOTBLUE said:

Down in Bournemouth last week and was chatting to Bournemouth season ticket holder,he reckons the deal has more or less already been done,said it was £12 million plus,probably nonsense but who knows.

be wary of what a ST holder will tell you....just look at OTIB to confirm that 

[NOTBLUE]

7 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

be wary of what a ST holder will tell you....just look at OTIB to confirm that 

Are you saying that people make things up on OTIB,.

[oldstandrobin]

6 minutes ago, NOTBLUE said:

Are you saying that people make things up on OTIB,.

Heaven forbid 

[Mr Popodopolous]

39 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Of course we’d all like to keep him..!

I just don’t think it’s likely for a club that are losing money and need to invest in several other areas. 

Losing money yes- but not enough to get transfer embargoed or FFP sanctioned.

Unless you actively sell players and keep a lid on wages, or sell to invest like what Brentford do so well, or are like say a Burton with very limited ambition- and not knocking them it's just how it goes, almost all clubs will make a loss at this level. The facilities? Majority at this level have them, have had them for longer- it's just in this League a case of limiting losses as best we can IMO for the foreseeable.

Does the squad need that much work? Obviously once the loanees have gone back, Steele has left and the out of contract players have gone, a decent chunk of the deadwood will be gone. That will free up wages- of course, it will only mean 20 senior players. Of the players we have out on loan, only Vyner is IMO near the first team at this time so it may need a RB and a decent backup keeper, but a squad of 23 sounds about right.

[havanatopia]

20 million

 

[BRIAN WILSON]

19 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

Heaven forbid 

I heard a conversation in 'the corridors of power' #gaslogic

[REDOXO]

2 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

We didn’t have a shot at the play offs when Tammy scored more than Bobby has done. 

We don’t HAVE to sell, no. But we can’t really afford not to either. 

I did chuckle as I don’t remember Tammy ever being asked to be a winger. Why was that LJs fall back cunning plan with Bob? Who the F knows!!?

Bob will want to go and keep that to himself as a nice fat signing on fee would be nice. 

Bobs a striker now capable of winning a golden boot so I would be confident of a move in the summer. As a bloke in implied earlier he could be a one season wonder but my instinct is not! 

The one year thing is not as relavant as some people think. If you need a striker you need one and SL won’t be bent over, it’s hard to bend over a guy worth 2 billion  

I say good luck Bob we will be shouting for you in the Premier League. Along with Joe Flinty And Marlon!

 

[Ian Crabbe]

Maybe look at getting a player swap deal plus money for Bobby,I may be wrong but think Bournemouth have Afobe,Grabban,King and maybe Wilson,if Bobby went there they couldn’t all play,all experienced players which a lot of people have said we need,I’m sure there will be others at other clubs as well.I know we should be in a position to poach players from a club like Bournemouth but we are where we are.

 

[Bar BS3]

18 minutes ago, Ian Crabbe said:

Maybe look at getting a player swap deal plus money for Bobby,I may be wrong but think Bournemouth have Afobe,Grabban,King and maybe Wilson,if Bobby went there they couldn’t all play,all experienced players which a lot of people have said we need,I’m sure there will be others at other clubs as well.I know we should be in a position to poach players from a club like Bournemouth but we are where we are.

 

You’d have to be happy with a Bobby for Grabban swap, if he’s going to be leaving anyway. 

[southvillekiddy]

11 hours ago, You Do The Dziekanowski said:

If Kodjia was valued at £15m I would say Bobby is worth at least £10m. I know what Lansdown said about selling players who’ve earned a price tag as such but why not stick a ridiculous price tag on him say £20m and look at accepting a bid just below. 

Thing is mate Bobby is a far better footballer than Kodjia

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's a key bit- if we were any number of clubs at this level, we would need to sell- FFP and that.

We have no such FFP issues so we can be a bit more discerning- however a good chunk of this League don't have that luxury.

Having lost “only” £3.5m last year (16/17) we’ve definitely bought us some time, but as I keep stating that £3.5m loss would’ve been £12.0m loss had we not sold Kodjia (and got unexpected windfall from Bolassie and Adomah).  If SL is being honest about us starting to pay in line with the bigger clubs (Villa excepted), then our wage bill (that includes all manner of things not just pure wages) for 17/18 is going to have gone up significantly, and with no sales of any note, I wouldn’t be surprised if we publish £8-10m loss....slightly offset by the revenue from the cup run.

If we don’t sell anyone, we still to invest in a squad that is really a ‘first eleven plus whoever LJ puts on the bench’.  The depth is there in theory, and in numbers, but massively lacking in quality.  This may mean players are confident of their places despite performance.  So how much does LJ need to spend, to get a 20 man squad capable of really pushing on?  Quite a bit I’d suggest.

No, we aren’t in FFP trouble, but if we fail to capitalise on selling 2 or 3 at top whack, we will hamstring ourselves budget wise in 19/20 and beyond.

32 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

I did chuckle as I don’t remember Tammy ever being asked to be a winger. Why was that LJs fall back cunning plan with Bob? Who the F knows!!?

Bob will want to go and keep that to himself as a nice fat signing on fee would be nice. 

Bobs a striker now capable of winning a golden boot so I would be confident of a move in the summer. As a bloke in implied earlier he could be a one season wonder but my instinct is not! 

The one year thing is not as relavant as some people think. If you need a striker you need one and SL won’t be bent over, it’s hard to bend over a guy worth 2 billion  

I say good luck Bob we will be shouting for you in the Premier League. Along with Joe Flinty And Marlon!

 

So Bobby moved to the wing?  

Wasn't that where Kodjia ended before being sold?

[Davefevs]

10 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

You’d have to be happy with a Bobby for Grabban swap, if he’s going to be leaving anyway. 

....but don’t forget a heavy wage tag too.  Having said that I don’t think money would persuade Bobby to stay.  This is probably his one shot.

9 minutes ago, southvillekiddy said:

Thing is mate Bobby is a far better footballer than Kodjia

Imho, Kodjia was vastly underrated.  19 or 20 goals in a relegation threatened team, adjusting to a new country, etc.  Proved his quality at an average Villa side last year too.

Wouldve loved to have seen them partner each other.  Much as a rate Famara, I think JK and BR would have been a real match.