Admin phantom Posted June 7, 2018 Admin Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 Further to my point about the English press being overly negative, I have to pick up on this headline from the BBC sport web page Taken from https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44383950 England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote. The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world - two places ahead of England - have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate's side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal. Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina. Maybe I am just being overly sensitive but why couldn't the headline have read "England 8th most likely to win the World Cup"? Seems to get overly obsessed with the fact Peru are ahead of us in the list?!?! Mind you I dread to think how much time and money this company invested to get this output !! http://www.gracenote.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-predictions-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 That isnt the press being overly negative though. They've done an article based on what a companies data produced. Only real question is if the headline would have been better off saying "England 8th favourites..." To that I'd say their headline is fully justified- the research etc was to work out the chance each team had of winning, so by going with 4% they have gone along with what the results gave. That it is the 8th most likely is a secondary result after comparing our % chance of winning to that of the other nations. Meanwhile from a journalistic point of view it is more likely to catch someones eye than "England 8th favourites..." because that headline wouldnt surprise many people, and many would agree thats probably not far out and cite nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain, France and Germany as more likely in their opinion (the other two would likely vary from person to person, while those 5 would be pretty consistant) whereas I expect most people would think our chance of winning the World Cup is a bit more than 4%. So seeing that would be more likely to get someone to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 I’m amazed it’s as high as 4%. Zero chance would have been my assessment. I’m not a betting man but I will be surprised if we make it through the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 1 minute ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: I’m amazed it’s as high as 4%. Zero chance would have been my assessment. I’m not a betting man but I will be surprised if we make it through the group. I think we'll get through the group, but will make it hard for ourselves. Depending who we face in the first knockout rounds we may be able to scrape to the quarter finals. But agree on your first sentance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: I’m amazed it’s as high as 4%. Zero chance would have been my assessment. I’m not a betting man but I will be surprised if we make it through the group. I think everyone will be surprised if we manage to somehow overcome the adversity of being placed in a group consisting of two well established world footballing superpowers in Tunisia and Panama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnderMB Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 The BBC's sport section has been full of clickbait nonsense for a while now, and their coverage across all sports is getting worse and worse, especially the Winter Olympics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRFTG Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 1 hour ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: I’m amazed it’s as high as 4%. Zero chance would have been my assessment. I’m not a betting man but I will be surprised if we make it through the group. Why the pessimism when one of our two star strikers has notched 2 in 38 and Estonia and Lithuania are no mugs at the back....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberRed Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 Let's be honest, going into any world cup there only tends to be maybe 5/6 teams that could genuinely win it. Being 8th favourates is a bit like being 'best of the rest'. I must say I'm surprised Belgium aren't ranked higher though. Man for man, they look pretty formidable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Hitler Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 1 hour ago, JamesBCFC said: That isnt the press being overly negative though. They've done an article based on what a companies data produced. Only real question is if the headline would have been better off saying "England 8th favourites..." To that I'd say their headline is fully justified- the research etc was to work out the chance each team had of winning, so by going with 4% they have gone along with what the results gave. That it is the 8th most likely is a secondary result after comparing our % chance of winning to that of the other nations. Meanwhile from a journalistic point of view it is more likely to catch someones eye than "England 8th favourites..." because that headline wouldnt surprise many people, and many would agree thats probably not far out and cite nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain, France and Germany as more likely in their opinion (the other two would likely vary from person to person, while those 5 would be pretty consistant) whereas I expect most people would think our chance of winning the World Cup is a bit more than 4%. So seeing that would be more likely to get someone to read it. No, it is deliberately negative. 4% sounds awful but if you see that Germany has an 8% chance then it doesn't look pathetic at all. "England eighth favourites for the World Cup" Would have given a far better impression of the data contained in the analysis. 4% sounds like we're coming last. Just now, AberRed said: Let's be honest, going into any world cup there only tends to be maybe 5/6 teams that could genuinely win it. Being 8th favourates is a bit like being 'best of the rest'. I must say I'm surprised Belgium aren't ranked higher though. Man for man, they look pretty formidable. Sorry that's my fault; I drew them in the office sweepstake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said: No, it is deliberately negative. 4% sounds awful but if you see that Germany has an 8% chance then it doesn't look pathetic at all. "England eighth favourites for the World Cup" Would have given a far better impression of the data contained in the analysis. 4% sounds like we're coming last. It really isnt. It even says in the article that the favourites have a 21% chance. The 4% number is a perfectly clear representation, given its exactly the number of the data. 4% sounding like coming last is just something in your head. If the favourites have a 21% chance, theres only 79% to go between the 31 other countries. If every country other than the favourites had an equal chance then that would be a 2.55% chance each. So a 4% chance is already better, but Spain have a 10% chance, and Germany and Argentina an 8% chance. So between 4 nations thats 47% gone, 53% between 28 nations is 1.89% each, so a 4% chance is more than double the average of the teams outside the 4 most likely sides. Saying theres a 4% chance grabs the attention more than saying 8th favourites, but it isnt being negative and makes sense when you actually think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Hitler Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said: It really isnt. It even says in the article that the favourites have a 21% chance. The 4% number is a perfectly clear representation, given its exactly the number of the data. 4% sounding like coming last is just something in your head. If the favourites have a 21% chance, theres only 79% to go between the 31 other countries. If every country other than the favourites had an equal chance then that would be a 2.55% chance each. So a 4% chance is already better, but Spain have a 10% chance, and Germany and Argentina an 8% chance. So between 4 nations thats 47% gone, 53% between 28 nations is 1.89% each, so a 4% chance is more than double the average of the teams outside the 4 most likely sides. Saying theres a 4% chance grabs the attention more than saying 8th favourites, but it isnt being negative and makes sense when you actually think about it. I understand the logic; but this didviding 100% percent amongst constituent teams is not a a method of ranking I have ever come across before and nor I expect would the casual reader glancing at the headline. It's a really odd thing to do; I have enevr seen teh Championship listing ranked in thsi way. Odds of winning yes, position of likelihood yes, but percenatges of a total 100% - totally misleading. 4% sounds like a very small number, 8th sounds like a decent ranking. The sub-editor writing the headline had the choice between making England look like probably quarter finalists or total lame ducks and chose the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBW Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 England above Portugal is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted June 7, 2018 Report Share Posted June 7, 2018 8 hours ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: I’m amazed it’s as high as 4%. Zero chance would have been my assessment. I’m not a betting man but I will be surprised if we make it through the group. I don’t think we have any chance whatsoever of winning the World Cup, but seriously.... you’d be “surprised” if we finish above Tunisia & Panama in the group stage..?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBW Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said: I don’t think we have any chance whatsoever of winning the World Cup, but seriously.... you’d be “surprised” if we finish above Tunisia & Panama in the group stage..?! I genuinely think England could finish third but I wouldn't say I'd be surprised to see them go through. Surprised to see them win any games after the group stage, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Brent Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 England have a 3.125% chance of winning the World Cup, same as everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryans Left Peg Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 I attended Peru’s WC qualifier playoff with New Zealand which finished 0-0. They have no chance. I fail to believe Peru have a stronger squad than England (and I think it’s one of the weakest we’ve had in a long time). The FIFA rankings are flawed and full of shite. I notice Peru have been given 68% of escaping their group, France on 69%. Surely France will win that group, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Denmark (35%) topple them as well and get 2nd. Some times common sense needs to be applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tinmans Love Child Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 19 hours ago, phantom said: Further to my point about the English press being overly negative, I have to pick up on this headline from the BBC sport web page Taken from https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44383950 England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote. The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world - two places ahead of England - have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate's side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal. Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina. Maybe I am just being overly sensitive but why couldn't the headline have read "England 8th most likely to win the World Cup"? Seems to get overly obsessed with the fact Peru are ahead of us in the list?!?! Mind you I dread to think how much time and money this company invested to get this output !! http://www.gracenote.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-predictions-2018/ How can the press be positive about a World Cup, we have been terrible in last 3 major tournaments, I think 1998 was the last time we were unlucky to go out. I am not getting positive until I have reason, I just want them to give it a go, I’d rather we lost going for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Brent Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bryans Left Peg said: I attended Peru’s WC qualifier playoff with New Zealand which finished 0-0. They have no chance. I fail to believe Peru have a stronger squad than England (and I think it’s one of the weakest we’ve had in a long time). The FIFA rankings are flawed and full of shite. I notice Peru have been given 68% of escaping their group, France on 69%. Surely France will win that group, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Denmark (35%) topple them as well and get 2nd. Some times common sense needs to be applied. Agree about the rankings. I’ve tipped Peru, however, as my surprise team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryans Left Peg Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, David Brent said: Agree about the rankings. I’ve tipped Peru, however, as my surprise team. Individually they have some good players, and I think Guerrero returning from the drug ban might give them a big lift but I have a sneaky feeling Denmark might out the group! Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 Peru did pretty well in South American qualifying tbh- some notable results. Could easily be a dark horse (not in terms of winning but could cause a few shocks). Belgium have a depth of talent for sure- tbh though just see Germany, France, Brazil and Spain as better overall. Not that it's decisive but first game for both Martinez and new Spain boss was in 2016 after Euros- albeit a friendly. Spain properly dispatched them 2-0 in Belgium so quarters likely and semis their upper limit IMO (Belgium that is). As for us? Quarters probably and I'd be fairly happy with this, especially if we play decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undy English Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 Think we're pretty fairly placed on that graph. On a par with Portugal and Belgium who often fail to impress at major tournaments, despite impressive friendlies in the run-up. Surprised to see Peru so highly ranked, but otherwise can't complain with our position on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 The problem always used to be that the media hyped our chances up before the tournament, then laid into them when expectations weren't met, usually with the scapegoating of a couple of players and a call to replace the "failures" with the next generation of inexperienced youngsters. If they've moved on from that then that's progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted June 8, 2018 Author Admin Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said: If they've moved on from that then that's progress. But they haven't just ask Raheem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Dicks' Barmy Army Posted June 8, 2018 Report Share Posted June 8, 2018 23 hours ago, JamesBCFC said: That isnt the press being overly negative though. They've done an article based on what a companies data produced. Only real question is if the headline would have been better off saying "England 8th favourites..." To that I'd say their headline is fully justified- the research etc was to work out the chance each team had of winning, so by going with 4% they have gone along with what the results gave. That it is the 8th most likely is a secondary result after comparing our % chance of winning to that of the other nations. Meanwhile from a journalistic point of view it is more likely to catch someones eye than "England 8th favourites..." because that headline wouldnt surprise many people, and many would agree thats probably not far out and cite nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain, France and Germany as more likely in their opinion (the other two would likely vary from person to person, while those 5 would be pretty consistant) whereas I expect most people would think our chance of winning the World Cup is a bit more than 4%. So seeing that would be more likely to get someone to read it. Am I the only person screaming "COCK" after reading this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Believesham Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 So, don’t back England for anything less than 25/1! Actually, don’t back England. I’m actually optimistic about the World Cup. Reaching the Quarter finals would not be beyond our capabilities & people have such low expectations (as a result of the last 2 tournaments), it would a be considered a decent tournament. Since 1998 we’ve gone out of international tournaments 3 times on penalties, that in itself is unlucky! (Ok, we’ve also failed to emerge from 2 groups and failed to qualify once). A quarter final exit would be dignified, a semi-final exit would be an achievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reading Red UTC Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 8th favourites matches my assessment of how we’ll do. Thanks to a relatively weak group H I think we’ll get to the quarter finals before being horribly molested by Brazil or Germany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunnyfunt Posted June 9, 2018 Report Share Posted June 9, 2018 On 07/06/2018 at 17:16, AberRed said: Let's be honest, going into any world cup there only tends to be maybe 5/6 teams that could genuinely win it. Being 8th favourates is a bit like being 'best of the rest'. I must say I'm surprised Belgium aren't ranked higher though. Man for man, they look pretty formidable. Two words. Roberto Martinez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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