Financial Fair Play, 3 Year Plans & How We Will Get Promoted

[Ian M]

Since it was clear we were raising funds this summer I have given our financial position some thought. I haven’t had the time to fully research our FFP position plus I doubt all of the details are available yet if I had but I believe in terms of what is and isn’t allowed, that in terms of the 3 year cycle, year 1 was pretty much break even. We then had a big loss last year and this Summer I think we have looked to balance that.

Certainly we are between break-even and a manageable loss over the 3 seasons, nowhere near the £39m allowable loss for the period. This gives us some wiggle room in my opinion and I have a theory over the goal for this and next season. I believe this season there is two main goals namely cancel out last year’s loss & make the squad a bit deeper in some of the more strenuous positions (as I may have touch upon before). I think there is also an expectation that we at least match last season’s finishing position whilst we are doing this.

We will never be able to compete for the finished championship articles whilst parachute payments are a thing, the closest we have got is Weimann but we got added value in that deal because Derby were selling us a 5 goal a season winger & we believe we have signed a 15-20 goal a season striker. Buying players that a) are of a type that suit our style & b) we can develop and add value to is the way to go for us and a policy we are clearly following. Next season the year 1 break even season drops off but we don’t need to replace it with another break even season because the season after, the year 2 big loss drops off. If we spent fairly big we would still comply with FFP if we didn’t go up because of this.

 

 If you actually look at our squad in terms of who we have got now that has developed somewhat over LJ’s time here, if those players continue to improve, 8 of the starting XI for 2019/20 look filled already: 

 

Goalkeeper

 RIghtBack CentreBack Webster Kelly

 O’Dowda Brownhill Pack Eliasson

 Diedhiou Weimann

 

To me that is developing very nicely into a first choice XI that could challenge for automatic promotion. Steffen would seem to fit the bill nicely as someone who would be around for the ride and improve with us, so I wouldn’t be surprised if money was borrowed against next season to bring him in in January if that is the only time his club will deal (particularly if we are still doing well). If you look at Kalas, he spent two seasons on loan at Fulham before they went up so he may well return. I believe that only leave RB lacking a player who would look good enough in an automatic promotion chasing team, though the club may see Vyner in this role? Hunt, as a two-time play-off qualifier is fine in the meantime.

I believe 2019/20 is the season the club are targeting as our challenge for promotion, though looking at it, depending how quickly a couple of players develop (I think Webster needs to learn how to use his physicality more though there was signs of it against Blackburn & COD is still too inconsistent) I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a play off challenge this season. There is also the possibility that the punt on Adelakun comes good and he becomes the preferred Right Wing option.

Things may  get complicated if we receive big offers for some of our players next Summer but as I said above, I believe there will be a budget to spend next Summer and we will be able to spend anything we generate too. 

[054123]

Good work, I shall make a note to save the date.

[robin_unreliant]

I'm not totally convinced that we were raising funds this summer explicitly to stay within the FFP limits.

SL has made it clear he wants the football club to be self sustaining. He has invested in the infrastructure but I'm not certain that he is happy to fund losses up to the FFP limit long term.

So it might not be right to assume we have bought ourselves some scope to invest more in the next window(s).

SL may just want to try and make what happened last season as the norm. Try to cover costs as much as possible by making a profit on sales to balance the wage costs.

It would be nice to think we have been saving up money to make a push but I suspect SL might see it differently.

[ChippenhamRed]

Interesting read, but the problem I have with this is the suggestion that we were deliberately “raising funds” this summer as part of a bigger plan. I don’t believe that to be the case. It was simply the case that three of our best players all wanted to leave because they were capable of bigger and better, and we had little choice but to cash in while they had strong market value. No one could have predicted that Bobby Reid would have become a £10 million striker within one season. If he hadn’t, we wouldn’t have had such a valuable asset that other clubs wanted to buy.

That said, I do accept the broad principle of selling high and recruiting younger players whose ability and value are likely to increase, as part of a sustainable model that incrementally works towards promotion. And you have to say based on league positions over the last five years, it seems to be working, with a few bumps along the way.

[Kid in the Riot]

@Ian M I think the point you're actually trying to make is not that we were deliberately raising funds, but that we have held back on spending this summer with a view to spending big at a later date. If that is your point then I think I agree. 

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

@Ian M I think the point you're actually trying to make is not that we were deliberately raising funds, but that we have held back on spending this summer with a view to spending big at a later date. If that is your point then I think I agree. 

My theory is that we have reserved a small "war chest" for January.  I think the club realise that they cannot repeat last January's debacle. Bringing in Diony, Walsh and Kent wasn't strengthening for the now.  I think it has been said that the players reacted poorly to the perceived lack of ambition, the better ones mentally drifted and began focussing on summer moves, and the others just generally struggled to carry on with the same hunger they had in the autumn.  This naturally contributed to our dramatic fall down the table.

@Michael McIndoe said at the time when he was posting on here that the club should be signing real quality if they wanted to capitalise on our strong autumn showing, and a number of posters on here echoed those opinions.

I think therefore that the club are holding some of the summer money back so that if we find ourselves in the top 8 come the new year we can, if we wish to, properly strengthen and prepare for a spring push for promotion or at least the play-offs.

[Davefevs]

@Ian M nice OP....you’ll find my reply in your DM!! Hadn’t realised you turned it into a post!

1 hour ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Interesting read, but the problem I have with this is the suggestion that we were deliberately “raising funds” this summer as part of a bigger plan. I don’t believe that to be the case. It was simply the case that three of our best players all wanted to leave because they were capable of bigger and better, and we had little choice but to cash in while they had strong market value. No one could have predicted that Bobby Reid would have become a £10 million striker within one season. If he hadn’t, we wouldn’t have had such a valuable asset that other clubs wanted to buy.

That said, I do accept the broad principle of selling high and recruiting younger players whose ability and value are likely to increase, as part of a sustainable model that incrementally works towards promotion. And you have to say based on league positions over the last five years, it seems to be working, with a few bumps along the way.

I think it’s less about deliberately raising funds, it’s more about covering losses....£18.4 loss in 17/18 if SL converting that debt last season directly correlates to our P&L (which is how he’s managed previous losses).

I still think SL would’ve wanted to sell one or two of Flint, Bryan, Magnússon (less so) and Reid in January but in our position:

1. LJ / MA would’ve pushed hard to keep them
2. they could be sold in the summer....mindful of the contract expiry of Reid, Magnússon and Bryan in summer 19.
3. SL would’ve been roundly criticised if he had

Unfortunately, we backed Diony and Kent....with good intentions.  We even agreed a record deal for Diony to sign permanently.  In hindsight we backed the wrong players and wasted money that had we backed the right player(s) might have made a huge difference.  We weren’t the only ones....Madine did not contribute much if anything of his £6m fee to Cardiff’s promotion, Grabban, ultimately, didn’t justify his, and nor did Cameron Jerome at Derby.  Did Brentford’s chances go on the back of selling Vibe to China?  People make out it was so black and white, the above proves it wasn’t imho.

I do subscribe to Ian’s 3cyear cycle approach, albeit probably reflect that it’s a steady progress plan, keeping yourself financially solid, ready to launch at the appropriate point....mindful of the 3 year FFP rolling cycle.  No point blowing £39m in one season if you’re not ready, as effectively your hamstrung in the following 2 years.  Launch time could be in January is the plan is ahead of schedule.  Last Jan, we hadn’t built the foundation strong enough.  The signings of Hunt, Webster, Weimann, plus Kalas on loan, and Maenpaa to a lesser degree (think Steffen is our target - money reserved for Jan???) have strengthened that foundation.  The next set are waiting (Adelakun and Eisa), and some are on target / ahead / just behind....Eliasson, Kelly, O’Dowda respectively.

We will know whether 6th place in September on the back of a slow burning start is a mirror for autumn, and whether those foundations are strong enough.

I have no regrets re last Jan, nor Jan-May....there was a bigger picture in play, and although MA’s wording along the lines of “we aren’t ready” was truthful....he might have been better saying nothing (Ronan Keating!), but we criticise him for being too vocal, or not vocal enough.  I do think he has his faults....recruitment being the main one, but I can’t sit here and moan about Eliasson all last season, without reflecting back this season that he / they may have got it right....just a bit slower than we hoped.

[Ian M]

2 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

@Ian M I think the point you're actually trying to make is not that we were deliberately raising funds, but that we have held back on spending this summer with a view to spending big at a later date. If that is your point then I think I agree. 

Yeah I may have worded it poorly (look at the time of posting ). Deliberately raising funds not so much as expecting bids to come in and making a decision to spend later.

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I have no regrets re last Jan, nor Jan-May....there was a bigger picture in play, and although MA’s wording along the lines of “we aren’t ready” was truthful....he might have been better saying nothing (Ronan Keating!), but we criticise him for being too vocal, or not vocal enough.  I do think he has his faults....recruitment being the main one, but I can’t sit here and moan about Eliasson all last season, without reflecting back this season that he / they may have got it right....just a bit slower than we hoped.

I keep going back to Gary Neville’s comment after the Man U - Spurs game when talking about Lucas Moura that it can take up to 12 months for a new player to shine in the Pochetino system and can’t help but think the same will often apply to us. One because Johnson wants us to play a pitch wide pressing system similar to those employed by Klopp & Pochetino and it takes time for players to learn the trigger points, learn to be positionally disciplined as soon as the ball is lost to be in a position  to press as well as gain the level of fitness required for that role. Secondly, whilst Spurs and Liverpool have a top 6 budget for their league to buy players closer to their peak for that system, we have to identify players we think we can improve over time too.

As much as people  (myself included) have raved about Eliasson’s set piece delivery, I actually think my favourite feature of his game on Sunday was when we lost the ball at one point in the second half, Niklas had been upfield looking to overload on the far side, he sprinted back into position and when Blackburn tried to move down their right flank, he was in position to simply block their passing lanes. He may not have won the ball back, but this discipline shut down an opposition move before it could get started and bought time for others to be in position to press. This simply wouldn’t have happened last season.

LJ is nowhere near the finished article but for all his faults, players with the right ambition do improve under his coaching. Even if you ignore the examples that have already secured upward transfers, the team I listed above, most have improved since their first appearance for us which is a marked difference to certain periods during my time supporting the club where it often felt like we were a graveyard for talent. Players would come here with fairly decent reputations and we would manage to ruin them! I think we need to get used to the idea that each window we will be signing a couple who a year down the line, we will be uttering the phrase “player x is like a new signing” due to their seeming emergence from nowhere.

[Snufflelufagus]

22 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Yeah I may have worded it poorly (look at the time of posting ). Deliberately raising funds not so much as expecting bids to come in and making a decision to spend later.

I keep going back to Gary Neville’s comment after the Man U - Spurs game when talking about Lucas Moura that it can take up to 12 months for a new player to shine in the Pochetino system and can’t help but think the same will often apply to us. One because Johnson wants us to play a pitch wide pressing system similar to those employed by Klopp & Pochetino and it takes time for players to learn the trigger points, learn to be positionally disciplined as soon as the ball is lost to be in a position  to press as well as gain the level of fitness required for that role. Secondly, whilst Spurs and Liverpool have a top 6 budget for their league to buy players closer to their peak for that system, we have to identify players we think we can improve over time too.

As much as people  (myself included) have raved about Eliasson’s set piece delivery, I actually think my favourite feature of his game on Sunday was when we lost the ball at one point in the second half, Niklas had been upfield looking to overload on the far side, he sprinted back into position and when Blackburn tried to move down their right flank, he was in position to simply block their passing lanes. He may not have won the ball back, but this discipline shut down an opposition move before it could get started and bought time for others to be in position to press. This simply wouldn’t have happened last season.

LJ is nowhere near the finished article but for all his faults, players with the right ambition do improve under his coaching. Even if you ignore the examples that have already secured upward transfers, the team I listed above, most have improved since their first appearance for us which is a marked difference to certain periods during my time supporting the club where it often felt like we were a graveyard for talent. Players would come here with fairly decent reputations and we would manage to ruin them! I think we need to get used to the idea that each window we will be signing a couple who a year down the line, we will be uttering the phrase “player x is like a new signing” due to their seeming emergence from nowhere.

So what your saying is Louis Diony would have been amazing this season !!!!! ?

[Ian M]

25 minutes ago, Snufflelufagus said:

So what your saying is Louis Diony would have been amazing this season !!!!! ?

No, because he didn’t appear to have the right sort of attitude

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Ian M said:

Yeah I may have worded it poorly (look at the time of posting ). Deliberately raising funds not so much as expecting bids to come in and making a decision to spend later.

I keep going back to Gary Neville’s comment after the Man U - Spurs game when talking about Lucas Moura that it can take up to 12 months for a new player to shine in the Pochetino system and can’t help but think the same will often apply to us. One because Johnson wants us to play a pitch wide pressing system similar to those employed by Klopp & Pochetino and it takes time for players to learn the trigger points, learn to be positionally disciplined as soon as the ball is lost to be in a position  to press as well as gain the level of fitness required for that role. Secondly, whilst Spurs and Liverpool have a top 6 budget for their league to buy players closer to their peak for that system, we have to identify players we think we can improve over time too.

As much as people  (myself included) have raved about Eliasson’s set piece delivery, I actually think my favourite feature of his game on Sunday was when we lost the ball at one point in the second half, Niklas had been upfield looking to overload on the far side, he sprinted back into position and when Blackburn tried to move down their right flank, he was in position to simply block their passing lanes. He may not have won the ball back, but this discipline shut down an opposition move before it could get started and bought time for others to be in position to press. This simply wouldn’t have happened last season.

LJ is nowhere near the finished article but for all his faults, players with the right ambition do improve under his coaching. Even if you ignore the examples that have already secured upward transfers, the team I listed above, most have improved since their first appearance for us which is a marked difference to certain periods during my time supporting the club where it often felt like we were a graveyard for talent. Players would come here with fairly decent reputations and we would manage to ruin them! I think we need to get used to the idea that each window we will be signing a couple who a year down the line, we will be uttering the phrase “player x is like a new signing” due to their seeming emergence from nowhere.

Fantastic post 

[Bristol Oil Services]

All the best laid plans, and all that.

So, after doing things by the books, and with all our accounts in order, and all our financial "eyes" dotted and "teas" crossed (we're not owned by an accountant for nothing) we're ready, finally, this time - more than any other time - we're all geared up to "go for it" in 2019/20 only - would you flippin believe it? - for bloody Newcastle and West Ham to be relegated along with Cardiff, instead of Huddersfield and someone else as crap and they've-had-their-moment as Huddersfield, and the Championship, incredibly, if it were possible, looks harder and more competitive still than ever before, what with Sam Allardyce's Derby County going for it big time as well, and Aston Villa's new owners (replacing 2018's new owners) quite unbelievably adding Juve's CR7 and LA Galaxy's Zlatan Ibrahimovic to their forward line of Kodjia, Abraham, Bolasie,  Albert and A. Weimann (£10m buy in January window), plus Sergio Ramos shoring up the Villa back line, on £450k a week (but still struggling to beat Brentford at home, resulting in new Villa boss Thierry Henry bemoaning his lack of midfield options) and even Darrell Clarke's newly promoted Bristol Rovers ruffling a few feathers with their cocky "we're coming for the lot of you" Downs-football bravado, and then, as if this wasn't enough to contend with, out of nowhere, staggeringly, and end-of-the-maximum-wage level controversially, so-called City fan Richard Scudamore announcing an "essential, and long-overdue" re-structuring of the Prem (before disappearing into retirement, in the Bahamas) reducing the number of clubs to prevent a World League breakaway of elite clubs, meaning only one automatic promotion place for the time being, and finally Sunderland pipping us to promotion by playing out a 2:2 draw for the one point they need at the Mem with the ball being passed around the centre circle for the last 70 minutes ....or WW3 breaks out with Russia/China, or something. 

It would be so Bristol City....

[JoeAman08]

I am not sure there is a plan so detailed because you can’t count on finishing anywhere in this league. Many(including myself) pipped us for midtable(12-15th). Truth is it is so easy to finish much better or worse than that. So think the plan is to be in a good financial state for whatever comes our way. Be that a promotion push or relegation battle. 

Now, we have added quality while returning some profit and that is all good and well but I am not sure we will necessarily spend that profit. It is good to have in that 3 year window but this squad will have to continue to show its promise before I think SL will invest more into losses. What we do know is that the club is going about it the right way. It may take 3 more years for a proper promotion push. It could take more but either way I do not fear our ability to react to any scenario we may be faced with and that is a good thing

[cidered abroad]

18 hours ago, Ian M said:

Since it was clear we were raising funds this summer I have given our financial position some thought. I haven’t had the time to fully research our FFP position plus I doubt all of the details are available yet if I had but I believe in terms of what is and isn’t allowed, that in terms of the 3 year cycle, year 1 was pretty much break even. We then had a big loss last year and this Summer I think we have looked to balance that.

Certainly we are between break-even and a manageable loss over the 3 seasons, nowhere near the £39m allowable loss for the period. This gives us some wiggle room in my opinion and I have a theory over the goal for this and next season. I believe this season there is two main goals namely cancel out last year’s loss & make the squad a bit deeper in some of the more strenuous positions (as I may have touch upon before). I think there is also an expectation that we at least match last season’s finishing position whilst we are doing this.

We will never be able to compete for the finished championship articles whilst parachute payments are a thing, the closest we have got is Weimann but we got added value in that deal because Derby were selling us a 5 goal a season winger & we believe we have signed a 15-20 goal a season striker. Buying players that a) are of a type that suit our style & b) we can develop and add value to is the way to go for us and a policy we are clearly following. Next season the year 1 break even season drops off but we don’t need to replace it with another break even season because the season after, the year 2 big loss drops off. If we spent fairly big we would still comply with FFP if we didn’t go up because of this.

 

 If you actually look at our squad in terms of who we have got now that has developed somewhat over LJ’s time here, if those players continue to improve, 8 of the starting XI for 2019/20 look filled already: 

 

Goalkeeper

 RIghtBack CentreBack Webster Kelly

 O’Dowda Brownhill Pack Eliasson

 Diedhiou Weimann

 

To me that is developing very nicely into a first choice XI that could challenge for automatic promotion. Steffen would seem to fit the bill nicely as someone who would be around for the ride and improve with us, so I wouldn’t be surprised if money was borrowed against next season to bring him in in January if that is the only time his club will deal (particularly if we are still doing well). If you look at Kalas, he spent two seasons on loan at Fulham before they went up so he may well return. I believe that only leave RB lacking a player who would look good enough in an automatic promotion chasing team, though the club may see Vyner in this role? Hunt, as a two-time play-off qualifier is fine in the meantime.

I believe 2019/20 is the season the club are targeting as our challenge for promotion, though looking at it, depending how quickly a couple of players develop (I think Webster needs to learn how to use his physicality more though there was signs of it against Blackburn & COD is still too inconsistent) I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a play off challenge this season. There is also the possibility that the punt on Adelakun comes good and he becomes the preferred Right Wing option.

Things may  get complicated if we receive big offers for some of our players next Summer but as I said above, I believe there will be a budget to spend next Summer and we will be able to spend anything we generate too. 

Food for thought.

Well thought out. Interesting if assumptions are accurate.

[robin_unreliant]

13 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Interesting read, but the problem I have with this is the suggestion that we were deliberately “raising funds” this summer as part of a bigger plan. I don’t believe that to be the case. It was simply the case that three of our best players all wanted to leave because they were capable of bigger and better, and we had little choice but to cash in while they had strong market value. No one could have predicted that Bobby Reid would have become a £10 million striker within one season. If he hadn’t, we wouldn’t have had such a valuable asset that other clubs wanted to buy.

I remember listening to SL being interviewed on Radio Bristol near the end of last season.

He said something like, it was a bit of a disappointing ending given where we were ar Christmas. However, the cup run and good first half of the season had significantly increased the value of the squad. Some of that added value will be realised over the summer.

He pretty much spelled out that we were cashing in. Couldn't have said it any plainer was my thinking at the time.

Whether it was because we knew they wouldn't stay, or it fit SL's financial planning, is more difficult to determine though. He certainly didn't sound unhappy about it.