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Losses up to £23.5m?


robin_unreliant

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12 hours ago, SX227 said:

So, in a nutshell:

We have spent waaaay over the odds on some very, very mediocre players. Including some absurd loan fees.

And had to sell/release 6 or 7 of the more high profile ones to cover that mistake? - Reid,Flint,Bryan,Mags,Milan,O'Neil etc 

I thought we had this all-singing,all-dancing recruitment team that could do no wrong.

Obviously not.

We WOULD have money for good players if we stopped spunking millions up the wall on excessive wages, loan fees and signing on bonuses for the wrong players.

Correct?

Yes.  Although this summer we’ve gone back to a bit of basics. 

Hunt, Webster and Weimann all playing virtually every game. Watkins in and out. Be interested to see Adelakun’s game time once fit. Eisa is 24 so at £1.5m is a lot of money “for the future”. But generally LJ has played the summer signings. He hasn’t done that in the past!!

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On 03/11/2018 at 08:59, Sturny said:

If you include the two 17yo Leeds players into the first team squad, then us and Leeds have the same size squad (25 players each). Not sure what relevance first team appearances has to do with anything, unless you’re referring to appearance bonuses? 

I'm basing squad size on those who make an appearance, at least those who have up till now. For instance, Taylor Moore has a squad no. but I'm not including him as he hasn't yet made and, indeed, is unlikely to make an appearance. Similarly for Leeds I'm basing the size of their squad on who's already played. There's just a lot of guff about them having this smaller squad than us. As you yourself point out, at best our two squad sizes are broadly similar. 

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Done some calculations based on the figures,.

FFP loss.

£13m per season PLUS allowable losses.

Assuming the cycle of 2016-17 starts and ends in March 2019 when projected accounts submitted.

Headline loss after taxation credit about £25,164,281- that is before allowable costs estimated at £4.7m. For 2016/17, our 'real' loss after taxation credit was £6,346,035 minus £4.5m in allowable costs

Total 2 year FFP Loss after allowable losses and taxation credit therefore £22,310,316. Hence this season we can legitimately lose in FFP terms, up to £16,689,864- that is BEFORE costs excluded for FFP purposes and possibly after- though I'm no expert on the latter- taxation credit.

In 2019/20, the 2016/17 small loss will be wiped and therefore our starting point will be last season- this is where it could have got trickier- though this summer should see a major improvement. Still to continue, this and next season combined we can lose approximately in FFP terms £18,535,719. That's not per season, but in total, lop that in half and we'll need FFP losses on average for this and next season of no more than £9,267,859.50. Big challenge or opportunity to keep hold of key assets in summer 2019? ?

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3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Big challenge or opportunity to keep hold of key assets in summer 2019? ?

Maybe the bigger challenge is identifying who are these key assets.

Lloyd - but still developing and likely to be on a fairly low wage in comparison to some of the established first team.

Aside from Lloyd, I don't really see who we have who would either command (at the moment) a sizeable fee, or would be tempted to move for a higher wage.

Suppose we might have to look at who is out of contract and guesstimate who from the development side of things could do the same job on a lower wage.

Not sure we have any 10million pound players in the current squad to help balance the books.

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1 minute ago, Bristol Rob said:

Maybe the bigger challenge is identifying who are these key assets.

Lloyd - but still developing and likely to be on a fairly low wage in comparison to some of the established first team.

Aside from Lloyd, I don't really see who we have who would either command (at the moment) a sizeable fee, or would be tempted to move for a higher wage.

Suppose we might have to look at who is out of contract and guesstimate who from the development side of things could do the same job on a lower wage.

Not sure we have any 10million pound players in the current squad to help balance the books.

A few out of contract next summer though- that will free up wages. Kalas also will be off back to Chelsea as will Da Silva, the former especially, he isn't cheap probably- it will help balance the books a bit maybe in FFP terms.

Strengthening in any meaningful way as it stands? Forget it IMO- that said in the rolling FFP terms if losses right down this season maybe very modest strengthening could be possible in Summer 2019. Any academy players we sell we get 100% return on too, any whose contract expires- if we signed them for a fee then their cost of amortisation is off the books too. Do we have a year option on Wright, Smith and Taylor as I am unsure when their contracts are up.

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If you (Cardiff) had stayed down? #Firesale

Dc0hOIEWkAI1vyw.jpg

You were very fortunate going up when you did- saw a graphic and it said your turnover without Parachute Payments in 16/17 would have been £17m at the highest end and £11-12m at the lowest!? That said you would be absolutely fine in 19/20 Championship FFP terms with how you have recruited- just wonder if EFL can hold fire and punish for historic offences when you're back at this level.

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8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

If you (Cardiff) had stayed down? #Firesale

Dc0hOIEWkAI1vyw.jpg

You were very fortunate going up when you did- saw a graphic and it said your turnover without Parachute Payments in 16/17 would have been £17m at the highest end and £11-12m at the lowest!? That said you would be absolutely fine in 19/20 Championship FFP terms with how you have recruited- just wonder if EFL can hold fire and punish for historic offences when you're back at this level.

If Cardiff do get relegated this season (who knows), they be fine as they'll be parachuted right up!

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4 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

If Cardiff do get relegated this season (who knows), they be fine as they'll be parachuted right up!

Oh yeah, I know this season and the higher loss limit in PL means that'll be aok.

What I'm wondering (wishful thinking surely) is can the EFL can impose a punishment for their losses they incurred between 15/16 and last season, if indeed that graphic is accurate- i.e. a points deduction?

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41 minutes ago, BlueDredd said:

How many more season's do you think you can remain competitive, whilst making big loses?

It may hit shit or bust at some point.

Honestly don't think it will. As long as Lansdown is here it won't get to that point, he seems relatively content to be moving slowly in the right direction as he perceives it, wouldn't be surprised if in the next 5 years he slowly ramps up spending mind.

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By the way @BlueDredd my last post was probably a bit churlish- Cardiff tbf to you are doing it right and it pains me to say it, but financially, getting Championship players who will be strong at this level? Not terribly ambitious but prudent!

To answer your question properly, do you mean in financial/cash terms aka SL's interest levels, or FFP terms? The 2 are different things.

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5 hours ago, Bristol Rob said:

The Swiss Ramble analysis of our results.

As always several fascinating insights in his/her analysis - 

  • Take out the effect of parachute payments and City are 7th in the league for revenue, which is impressive, albeit comparison mostly vs clubs in 16/17 as others haven't yet reported for 17/18
  • City are 6th for commercial income and for what I assume is the first time ever, match day revenues exceeded season ticket revenue - quite a statement on the impact of the AG redevelopment
  • In addition to the season by season amortisation of transfer fees, we recorded a £1m impairment (write down) on prior signings - I wonder who we re-valued last season (auditable recognition that an asset not worth as much as previously valued)... Engvall? Moore? 
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2 hours ago, ZiderEyed said:

Honestly don't think it will. As long as Lansdown is here it won't get to that point, he seems relatively content to be moving slowly in the right direction as he perceives it, wouldn't be surprised if in the next 5 years he slowly ramps up spending mind.

In your opinion, how does FFP allow him the room to do so?

In addition, moving slowly in the right direction over a 5 year period, as you put it, would be seen by rather too many supporters (wrongly imo) as stagnation - it's started already, see ridiculous threads like "Goin nowhere doin nothing". That's the nature of the beast round here, always has been. And when supporters think we're stagnating, they stop attending.

Imo if we spend 5 years making slow progress our crowds will decline in number - history tells us that. And while that revenue stream declines, wages are on a steady upward curve in the opposite direction (this being the downside of the Pillar that dictates we buy mostly cheap and young because if they improve you have to reward them with ever improving contracts).

The answer to this conundrum is straightforward but difficult to achieve:

The right coach, recruitment that's near 100% successful, and a "go for it"mentality when it comes to promotion that is ambitious without being irresponsible. I see little evidence of any of these, at the present time.

 

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1 minute ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

In your opinion, how does FFP allow him the room to do so?

In addition, moving slowly in the right direction over a 5 year period, as you put it, would be seen by rather too many supporters (wrongly imo) as stagnation - it's started already, see ridiculous threads like "Goin nowhere doin nothing". That's the nature of the beast round here, always has been. And when supporters think we're stagnating, they stop attending.

Imo if we spend 5 years making slow progress our crowds will decline number. And while that revenue stream declines, wages are on a steady upward curve in the opposite direction (this being the downside of the Pillar that dictates we buy mostly cheap and young because if they improve you have to reward them with ever improving contracts).

The answer to this conundrum is straightforward but difficult to achieve:

The right coach, recruitment that's near 100% successful, and a "go for it"mentality when it comes to promotion that is ambitious without being irresponsible. I see little evidence of any of these, at the present time.

 

Whether or not its a feasible goal is another thing, but ultimately I see the philosophy that SL WANTS to implement as finding players from the lower leagues/academy system, developing and selling them on, and using the profits to buy more, but also to acquire a better calibre of player in the mean time. It is not a new idea, it has been done successfully by Brentford and PNE who have climbed the leagues in the same way. 

I think the thing that is required to prevent the dip in attendances, and thus, income from matchday revenue, STs, etc. is to have a team that plays an attractive style of football. You'd hope that you could maintain high crowds (for us) with attractive football and being consistently competitive at this level.

With regards to your answer to the conundrum;

The right coach - Does he even exist?

Recruitment thats near 100% successful - Sure you'd agree not possible, but I'd settle for recruitment that a) follows a clear strategy and attempts to find players to fit in to a defined footballing philosophy and b) doesn't make quite such poor losses with each failed transfer

Go for it mentality - Think under SL it'll never happen. I am aware we spent on Diony and Kent in January but ultimately neither were proven, quality footballers at this level. Diony was a gamble and Kent, while rated, obviously wasn't to be the sort of player who took us to the next level.

Ultimately I fear that you might be right.

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Or perhaps- and given he's such a bright young coach it's hard to believe- LJ has problems getting the best out of players from a higher level- tactically, technically.

Not saying go and appoint some big name ex player, but it is noticeable to me that a lot of players from a higher level with some experience behind them under him have tended to start off with significant approval ratings on here...then steadily decline and eventually collapse!

From memory, O'Neil got plaudits on here early on. So too did Magnússon that's just 2, Hegeler from the Bundesliga with CL experience got quite a bit of praise also. Admittedly injuries have played roles with some- well most?- but there does seem to be a worrying trend for me. Kalas started great. now not so sure. Baker another, has he progressed, stagnated or regressed in the last year?

Guess what I'm trying to say is, could he be better with players on the up? That poses a problem and a ceiling if he can't get the best out of those with some sort of record behind them.

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20 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

By the way @BlueDredd my last post was probably a bit churlish- Cardiff tbf to you are doing it right and it pains me to say it, but financially, getting Championship players who will be strong at this level? Not terribly ambitious but prudent!

To answer your question properly, do you mean in financial/cash terms aka SL's interest levels, or FFP terms? The 2 are different things.

It's alright mate. I understand the frustration..

We were very lucky to go up when we did. Spent little money other than a punt on Gary Madine, and luckily it returned for us in a big way.

If we do come back down, we'll be stronger financially and in a more comfortable position to compete again!

Also I meant in terms of FFP

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18 minutes ago, BlueDredd said:

It's alright mate. I understand the frustration..

We were very lucky to go up when we did. Spent little money other than a punt on Gary Madine, and luckily it returned for us in a big way.

If we do come back down, we'll be stronger financially and in a more comfortable position to compete again!

Also I meant in terms of FFP

You will- you've done it right as I say- imagine adding Smithies, Cunningham, Reid and yes Madine to a Championship squad- the latter will be used more readily next year if you come back down. Plus the surplus of Parachute Payments...yeah I've often thought your strategy was to build club, buy some players but mainly Championship, if you come back down then you're in a really strong position to have a ctrack at an instant return and build properly in 2020/21.

FFP? Think we're better placed than forecast- because I see lots of sides heading for a financial crunch in this division over the next 2-3 years- IF FFP is enforced correctly, we will already be looking to comply, whereas a lot of sides should be getting docked points, embargoed or having to have rapid rebuilds/fire sales- and having to change course quickly at that! Or in a number of cases be run alright, but just not big enough or rich enough to push towards the top end.

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Since the losses have come to light, a lot of people have jumped on the Lansdown bandwagon to say that we'd be royally ****** without him.

They're probably right, but in my view Lansdown needs to do more than pump money into the club. He needs to put his money into the area, and ensure that the club is self-sufficient, and until recently I would've said that he hasn't done this.

Today, we know all the stuff he's been working on for years to help push us to the next level. We're getting a new training complex on par with most Category 1 academies. Our stadium is going to have a small sporting arena next to it. We have a division that makes sports clothing. Our revamped stadium boasts more live music acts and has much better conference facilities than before.

On the pitch, we've also had a good run over the past few years. It feels like we're now an established Championship team instead of a team that fights relegation to become a big fish in League 1's small pond. We also had a nice cup run where we knocked Man Utd out of the cup, and where we were up on goals against the best team in the country and (arguably) the best coach in the world.

My hope is that in the next five years, our commercial side will be strong enough to maintain a Premier League run. It looks like things are happening, but the financials are the ultimate score card, and Lansdown needs to get some points on the board.

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1 hour ago, EnderMB said:

Since the losses have come to light, a lot of people have jumped on the Lansdown bandwagon to say that we'd be royally ****** without him.

They're probably right, but in my view Lansdown needs to do more than pump money into the club. He needs to put his money into the area, and ensure that the club is self-sufficient, and until recently I would've said that he hasn't done this.

Today, we know all the stuff he's been working on for years to help push us to the next level. We're getting a new training complex on par with most Category 1 academies. Our stadium is going to have a small sporting arena next to it. We have a division that makes sports clothing. Our revamped stadium boasts more live music acts and has much better conference facilities than before.

On the pitch, we've also had a good run over the past few years. It feels like we're now an established Championship team instead of a team that fights relegation to become a big fish in League 1's small pond. We also had a nice cup run where we knocked Man Utd out of the cup, and where we were up on goals against the best team in the country and (arguably) the best coach in the world.

My hope is that in the next five years, our commercial side will be strong enough to maintain a Premier League run. It looks like things are happening, but the financials are the ultimate score card, and Lansdown needs to get some points on the board.

Define 'self-sufficiency'?

In the sense of at this level- we had higher turnover than ever before, yet bugger losses than ever before- the average turnover/wage ratio and that is before any other cost is 100% in the Championship, think that was for 16/17. Leeds as of 16/17 seemed to have a commercial revenue that outstrips even some PL clubs so they maybe able to manage it, clubs who are prudent and with Parachute payments maybe able to manage it over time- talking pure cash losses/profit, not FFP.

I think though at this level the best we can hope for- no reflection on the club or SL- is annual FFP compliance, maybe the odd year with a profit in real terms but this division- well the figures speak for themselves! Wages and fees have risen much quicker than TV money etc.

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25 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Define 'self-sufficiency'?

In the sense of at this level- we had higher turnover than ever before, yet bugger losses than ever before- the average turnover/wage ratio and that is before any other cost is 100% in the Championship, think that was for 16/17. Leeds as of 16/17 seemed to have a commercial revenue that outstrips even some PL clubs so they maybe able to manage it, clubs who are prudent and with Parachute payments maybe able to manage it over time- talking pure cash losses/profit, not FFP.

I think though at this level the best we can hope for- no reflection on the club or SL- is annual FFP compliance, maybe the odd year with a profit in real terms but this division- well the figures speak for themselves! Wages and fees have risen much quicker than TV money etc.

Pretty much what you've stated with Leeds United. They're a club with an impressive stadium, and are well-supported inside and outside of their city. Regardless of their past reputation, the city is proud of them, and they'll never be short of support.

I doubt Bristol City will ever reach that peak, but I'd like to see Bristol City be a point of pride in the city. Most of all, I want to see Lansdown use his business connections to ensure we always have top-tier commercial opportunities available to us. Considering Bristol is a tech leader in the UK, and since we've got two solid universities, it'd be good to see Bristol City dip their toes in this market and use Bristol Sport as a way of promoting sport/tech businesses.

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4 minutes ago, EnderMB said:

Pretty much what you've stated with Leeds United. They're a club with an impressive stadium, and are well-supported inside and outside of their city. Regardless of their past reputation, the city is proud of them, and they'll never be short of support.

I doubt Bristol City will ever reach that peak, but I'd like to see Bristol City be a point of pride in the city. Most of all, I want to see Lansdown use his business connections to ensure we always have top-tier commercial opportunities available to us. Considering Bristol is a tech leader in the UK, and since we've got two solid universities, it'd be good to see Bristol City dip their toes in this market and use Bristol Sport as a way of promoting sport/tech businesses.

Also have a fanbase that extends well beyond Leeds because of their history- I know lots on here don't like Leeds, but they have a strong history and that counts in a commercial sense. Enough about Leeds however.

Agreed, there are avenues we can definitely tap into- should be looking to tap into, such as those that you state.

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22 minutes ago, EnderMB said:

Pretty much what you've stated with Leeds United. They're a club with an impressive stadium, and are well-supported inside and outside of their city. Regardless of their past reputation, the city is proud of them, and they'll never be short of support.

I doubt Bristol City will ever reach that peak, but

Between 1965 and 1975 Leeds were one of Europe's elite teams, managed by an all time great, with world class players. So I think your doubts are well founded!!!  Can't stand their fans but that history commands respect.

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2 hours ago, EnderMB said:

Pretty much what you've stated with Leeds United. They're a club with an impressive stadium, and are well-supported inside and outside of their city. Regardless of their past reputation, the city is proud of them, and they'll never be short of support.

I doubt Bristol City will ever reach that peak, but I'd like to see Bristol City be a point of pride in the city. Most of all, I want to see Lansdown use his business connections to ensure we always have top-tier commercial opportunities available to us. Considering Bristol is a tech leader in the UK, and since we've got two solid universities, it'd be good to see Bristol City dip their toes in this market and use Bristol Sport as a way of promoting sport/tech businesses.

 

1 hour ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Between 1965 and 1975 Leeds were one of Europe's elite teams, managed by an all time great, with world class players. So I think your doubts are well founded!!!  Can't stand their fans but that history commands respect.

That period - '65 to '75 - coincided with the growth/spread of TV owning households and specifically the introduction of Match of the Day, which began in 1964 but really got going by the late 60s. In 1968, The Big Match began on independent television. By the early 70s, millions were able to see the top clubs and stars, every weekend. This was a time when being on television was huge (probably like being an internet/social media sensation today) and being successful on television was game-changing. What a time to be winning and challenging for the top domestic honours in the country, and in Europe. Football, films and pop music was all there was.

Liverpool also benefitted from this fortuitous timing. 

The decade or so immediately after WW2,  when crowds hit record highs around the country, and the 65 - 75 dawn of TV football, were two "windows" when it was possible to lay down traditions of support that would last well beyond the silverware. 

We cannot "reach that peak," those opportunities have gone. When we do make the Europa League (don't stop always believin') we'll have to settle for the silverware/the 6th or 7th place in the Prem and the glory; the nationwide devotion, adoption and support/coachloads from all corners will not be coming our way.

Bloody Leeds!

 

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22 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Or perhaps- and given he's such a bright young coach it's hard to believe- LJ has problems getting the best out of players from a higher level- tactically, technically.

Not saying go and appoint some big name ex player, but it is noticeable to me that a lot of players from a higher level with some experience behind them under him have tended to start off with significant approval ratings on here...then steadily decline and eventually collapse!

From memory, O'Neil got plaudits on here early on. So too did Magnússon that's just 2, Hegeler from the Bundesliga with CL experience got quite a bit of praise also. Admittedly injuries have played roles with some- well most?- but there does seem to be a worrying trend for me. Kalas started great. now not so sure. Baker another, has he progressed, stagnated or regressed in the last year?

Guess what I'm trying to say is, could he be better with players on the up? That poses a problem and a ceiling if he can't get the best out of those with some sort of record behind them.

Mmmmmm, you old cynic!!!  @BobBobSuperBob Will recall several of my posts on a similar theme a while back!

2 hours ago, spudski said:

As a friend of mine pointed out this morning...one of the forums favourite Directors was on £436K a year...and probably more this season. WTF!!!

I highlighted this to Kieran Maguire - price of football.  He’d taken £545k as being split 5 ways (ave £109k) which he thought was low. I corrected him and gave a bit more info too. He appreciated it!!! 

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