Relegation battle

[Bar BS3]

10 minutes ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

Really interesting.

174 points from 118 games = 1.475pts/game.

Over a 46 game season that's 67.85 points.

That's just below play offs.

Oh dear, that’s going to upset some people on here. 

Oh well, at least they can harp on about us not having won a game since last month, or not winning any games this season, apart from the games that we’ve won, obviously! Or however they want to view the stats to have a pop. 

[ChippenhamRed]

1 hour ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

Really interesting.

174 points from 118 games = 1.475pts/game.

Over a 46 game season that's 67.85 points.

That's just below play offs.

I remain far from convinced that Johnson is the man who will lead us to the next step - the playoffs and beyond - but it is an undeniable fact that his overall record at this club compares favourably with pretty much any City manager in the last 30 years - particularly when you consider he has managed entirely in the second tier, unlike for example Cotterill or his dad.

Of course some will say “so he should with the money he’s spent” - disregarding the fact that he is managing in an era when Championsho strikers change hands for £10m+, and our budget has never been more than mid-range in the division.

[Dr_Castro]

On 04/11/2018 at 15:20, Wanderingred said:

Current form has us 15th over the last six games.

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/form-guide

I called for LJs head yesterday. I think he has no idea what he is doing, and I am certainly not defending him. But I deal in facts. And to say our form is relegation form is absolutely wrong.

AAAARGH! we are bottom of the table ( of average away attendances)

[JamesBCFC]

1 hour ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

Really interesting.

174 points from 118 games = 1.475pts/game.

Over a 46 game season that's 67.85 points.

That's just below play offs.

 

1 hour ago, Bar BS3 said:

Oh dear, that’s going to upset some people on here. 

Oh well, at least they can harp on about us not having won a game since last month, or not winning any games this season, apart from the games that we’ve won, obviously! Or however they want to view the stats to have a pop. 

 

34 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

I remain far from convinced that Johnson is the man who will lead us to the next step - the playoffs and beyond - but it is an undeniable fact that his overall record at this club compares favourably with pretty much any City manager in the last 30 years - particularly when you consider he has managed entirely in the second tier, unlike for example Cotterill or his dad.

Of course some will say “so he should with the money he’s spent” - disregarding the fact that he is managing in an era when Championsho strikers change hands for £10m+, and our budget has never been more than mid-range in the division.

His overall record with us has by and large been consistently at that level, I remember checking his overall record with us at the end of his first awful run with us and even then it was still a top half record!

The form when he took over until the end of 2015-16 was top 6, he was in charge for 1/3 of that season.

16-17 obviously was bottom half overall at the end of the season, but people often forget (or, if I'm being cynical- and this is OTIB after all- deliberately ignored) we were in the playoffs either until the Brighton game on bonfire night or the week after, so at that point he had had us playing top 6 form consistently for 2/3 of a season (actual games played, so no inflation of time to his benefit by the off season) we then had half a season of what actually was relegation form, before results picked up at the end- let's say 1/5 of the season as lower half form as a placeholder time and form value (I'd need to go back and double check, but 8-9 games can't be far off what it was).

Last season until the Wolves game was top 2 form, the second half of the season was bottom half struggler form (but not  relegation form as it is so often claimed- there were 4 or 5 teams who were on worse form than us over the same period of time. Not a great deal better, but different to the claimed narrative).

As of right now LJ has been our manager for approximately 2 whole seasons and 2/3 of a third (Up til now of this season and his appointment season both spells being approx 1/3 of a season).

All these time frames are rough, but gives this (converted into the same fraction in brackets for simplicity).

Total Top 2 form- 1/2 season (15/30).

Total Top 6 form- 2/3 season (20/30)

Mid Table form 1/3 season (10/30)         Oddly, this is just this seasons form up til now.

Lower half form (Placeholder)- 1/6 season (5/30)

Bottom half struggler form- 1/2 season (15/30)

Relegation form- 1/2 season (15/30)

 

Total time (80/30 which equals 2 full seasons and 2/3 of a third)

 

So to make the groups a bit clearer, we have spent an entire season of Lee Johnsons tenure with relegation or bottom half struggler form

We have spent about half a season with mid table or bottom half (but not struggler, think 13th-15/16th) including the small number of games at the end of his first full season where I guesstimated what we had.

We have spent a little over an entire season with top 6 or better form (approximately 1 full season and 1/6th of another)

 

So what do this tell us? Ultimately not a huge amount except that, on balance, there will be more good than bad. Ultimately every single manager will have a total of a seasons worth of bad form if they are a midtable side and he's been there a few years. Equally, most will have a seasons worth of form that would compete for a playoff place over the same time.

 

So what causes the main problems with LJ

1. It is all or nothing. Great form followed by awful. Then when there is some mixed form, the critics won't cut any slack because there had been such bad for,  and obviously any mixed form is a precursor to more dreadful form.

2. Entitlement from the fans. I really don't think this needs to be expanded on as it's very clear from posts on here, but can expand if someone asks.

3. Following Cotterill. Following a manager who was almost universally loved, and who had brought us our most successful season in years, we have someone who wasn't a huge name as a manager, and  who had split the fanbase when here as a player. People were against him before  he was even appointed ("I will boo") and so there were some (granted, a minority) who couldn't wait to jump on his back. Not only that but a few of them couldn't wait to spread seeds of discontent on here, there was "I hope we lose" at the start of Johnsons first January here, at that time he had presided over 2/3s of a season at top 6 form, and approximately 6 weeks of relegation form and people were wanting him sacked! 

4. The fans described in the above. After such threads as the aforementions, OTIB became increasingly toxic, if you didn't want him gone, it was claimed you'd be happy for us to be relegated, then there would be retaliation, there was no middle ground (I personally defended LJ more because of this, taking a stance because I viewed the abuse- of which there was plenty- aimed at him as undeserved and the criticisms overly harsh- though I did agree with some concerns). And we still see the after effects now IMO. When there's a run of bad form people jump back to the extreme views (I see this more from the anti-LJ, but then I am still defending him so can't claim to be unbiased, though I try to be). 

What could resolve this?

1. Perspective. Certain fans clearly have not kept up with the times and use transfer fees as a stick to beat LJ with, while continually ignoring the inflation of transfer fees in the modern game.

2. More balanced form. A season, or even 2 of just inconsistent midtable form might finally convince people that the losing, or winless, streaks are over- of course, some would then complain that we are stagnating and will never make progress.

I think LJ has actually tried to make steps towards 2, though of course he is aiming to win every game. But in the summer he spoke about signing defenders to make us better there. We have now got something like the 8th best defensive record in the league and nearly half our goals conceded came in 2 games. But it has come at the expense of our goals being scored. Whether that is down to profligacy or a lack of chances is the next question. If it's the former then things should balance out- we were arguably over prolific earlier in the season, now we have a dry spell. This is a reversion to the mean. If it is the latter then that is a bigger concern.

 

[BS4 on Tour...]

Edit - incorrect 

 

[JamesBCFC]

4 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

 

We were never anywhere near the play offs in November that season....we never got higher than 12th as we lost all three games in November 2016 - and November isn’t ‘late’ into a season....it’s less than three months into a campaign with over six months to go...

We were 6th on the 4th of November 2016, last time I checked that is a playoff place.

At that point 15 games had been played, approximately 1/3 of the season.

I didn't say November was late season, but "as late as" to make the point that it wasn't after 2-3 games (we were top after the Burton game). After 1/3 of the season you generally start to see it shaping up, though that doesn't mean clubs won't go on long runs, positive or negative.

[BS4 on Tour...]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

We were 6th on the 4th of November 2016, last time I checked that is a playoff place.

At that point 15 games had been played, approximately 1/3 of the season.

I didn't say November was late season, but "as late as" to make the point that it wasn't after 2-3 games (we were top after the Burton game). After 1/3 of the season you generally start to see it shaping up, though that doesn't mean clubs won't go on long runs, positive or negative.

I edited/deleted my previous post as I realised I was wrong - apologies James

[Wanderingred]

2 hours ago, Dr_Castro said:

AAAARGH! we are bottom of the table ( of average away attendances)

Presume that table is for average total crowds at all our away games? Makes sense I guess as we've been to most of the grounds with the lowest attendances in the league.. Rotherham, Brentford, Wigan, QPR etc.

[glen humphries]

5 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Edit - incorrect 

 

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[BS4 on Tour...]

4 hours ago, glen humphries said:

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[glen humphries]

2 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

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[Full nelson]

Looks like your all coming around to this now!! We are in deep trouble! There’s nothing there, no fight, no passion, no heart, no nothing.