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The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)


Mr Popodopolous

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Wow, my guess on Wolves promotion bonuses seems to have been spot on. :whistle2:

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However the £55m figure is believed to be inflated by around £20m on promotion bonuses for staff and players, plus extra transfer fees owed as a result of promotion.

My latest calculations for what we therefore know...

  • £55,149,000- 2018
  • £20,830,000- 2017
  • £7,561,000- 2016

TOTAL 3 year Loss- £68,418,000

Subtract £20m in promotion bonuses it would seem.

Total 3 year loss- £48,418,000.

Given what clubs like Wolves spend on infrastructure, academy etc in the main at this level, I think there is a fair chance the 3 year excluded spend would be at least £9,418,000- before we even factor in FOSUN taking over and the fact they would want to upgrade training facilities, revenue streams etc.

Looks like they passed it then- not by a huge amount but up to the limit would be enough.

Definite cutbacks this year would have been necessary had they fallen short, but Neves, Costa and Cavaleiro wouldn't have been short of takers and likely for good money at that. Had say Boly and Jota signed permanently they could have been sold on quickly, if option to buy they'd have been off the wage bill with no purchase obligations.

As I said this time a year ago- clever model indeed.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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WOW... They are lucky the gamble paid off. FFP !?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47453599

Wolverhampton Wanderers lost more than £1m a week during their Championship-winning campaign last season.

Wolves recorded a pre-tax loss of £57.16m for the year ending 2017-18, more than double the £23.18m they lost in the previous 12 months.

However, the club were promoted to the Premier League as title winners in Nuno Espirito Santo's debut season as manager.

They also turned over £26.4m and had an increase of £1.3m in ticketing income.

In a statement on the West Midlands club's website, the pre-tax loss was attributed to increased expenditure on players, wages, and promotion bonuses.

Some of those signings include player of the season Ruben Neves and the loan acquisitions of Diogo Jota and Willy Boly.

"Wolves' owners are committed to continuously improving the club, from both a footballing and wider operational and strategic perspective," said the statement.

However, Wolves are showing no signs of a reduction in spending and the club have already spent £109m on players since being promoted to the top flight.

Edited by City_pete1
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Am I right in thinking that they are free from penalties as they are in the Prem ? 
The EFL and the Prep being separate bodies , if the EFL try and put fines or whatever in place, there is no guarantee that the Prem would enforce them. 

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So, Wolves 3 seasons:

15/16: £7.5m profit

16/17: £20.8m loss

17/18: £57.1m loss

Overall: £70.4m loss

Less allowable deductions:

Promotion Bonus: £21.6m > £48.4m loss

Academy, etc: £5m per year = £15m > £33.4m

So inside FFP by my reckoning....saved by 15/16’s profit!  They would’ve had to sell the Crown Jewels had they not gone up last season.

@Mr Popodopolous - does that look right?

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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

So, Wolves 3 seasons:

15/16: £7.5m profit

16/17: £20.8m loss

17/18: £57.1m loss

Overall: £70.4m loss

Less allowable deductions:

Promotion Bonus: £21.6m > £48.4m loss

Academy, etc: £5m per year = £15m > £33.4m

So inside FFP by my reckoning....saved by 15/16’s profit!  They would’ve had to sell the Crown Jewels had they not gone up last season.

@Mr Popodopolous - does that look right?

That sounds very likely and I reckon spot on Dave.

Not followed it for a few hrs- was £21.6m confirmed?

It would have meant IMO bye bye Neves, Costa and Cavaleiro for one. No permanent for Boly, Jota and Afobe.

More importantly in a sense- would FOSUN, Mendes and Nuno kept faith? Have my doubts...

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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27 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That sounds very likely and I reckon spot on Dave.

Not followed it for a few hrs- was £21.6m confirmed?

It would have meant IMO bye bye Neves, Costa and Cavaleiro for one. No permanent for Boly, Jota and Afobe.

More importantly in a sense- would FOSUN, Mendes and Nuno kept faith? Have my doubts...

No, just under “other costs”

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At last, Aston Villa's full results out.

Pretty busy this morning but a couple of headline figures:

  • Turnover- £68.8m
  • Profit on Player Trading- £15.882,000
  • Compensation for HS2- £3m. This is a once off cash gain.
  • Amortisation- roughly the same at £23,793,000 up from £23,737,000

The Wage Bill rise is staggering though. Reduction in Parachute Payments no problem...Total wages once Social Security and Pension costs factored in £73,110,00! :shocking: If we're stripping out that aspect and looking at wages- admittedly club wages in isolation, still up to £65,122,000 from £53,490,000.

Headline loss after all that £36,069,000. Though once excluded costs taken into account it comes down of course. Estimate their revenue falls by £21-22m this year with final year of Parachute Payments and presumably no recurring HS2 Compensation. In other words? They need to if rules enforced stringently, reach compliance at a time when revenue drops £21m. Their accounts did suggest they spent £10m or so on Youth Development thoiuygh so they're fine for the 3 years to last season but this season? Big problems you'd think!

Oh yeah and in other news, Reading lost almost £21m. Thought they would be in trouble.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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30 minutes ago, phantom said:

After yesterday's figures released by wolves, Reading show even worse figures just released (for every £100 income they spent £197)

IMG_20190306_092853.jpg

How can Reading have spent so much and yet be doing so badly?  Bear in mind, they finished 20th last season...

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5 minutes ago, Loderingo said:

How can Reading have spent so much and yet be doing so badly?  Bear in mind, they finished 20th last season...

There's plenty of owners and managers that can prove that is quite an easy thing to do.

It's spending little and doing well that is the toughie!

Edited by downendcity
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The ones who will feel gutted looking at these results over 2 seasons and likely hamstrung sides will be Barnsley fans big time.

7th in Jan 2017, few points off the playoffs and no FFP breach. Already in transfer profit from Mawson sale and Stones sell-on clause. So what do they do? Why, sell Bree, Hourihane and Winnall of course!

@BobBobSuperBob called it right IMO when he suggested it maybe asset stripping a while ago.

I mean you could also argue as clubs who run a relatively tight ship Burton, or Rotherham but neither of them were challenging the top. Barnsley had hit on a great formula and had momentum- no vast need to sell 2 years ago but sell they did!

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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Decided to take a quick look at Aston Villa and some early analysis for this season.

Yes their wage bill will surely have come down- Johnstone, Terry, Samba, Snodgrass, Onomah and Grabban all gone. Plus Agbonlahor...Still, a renewal of loan for Tuzunabe, plus loans for Moreira (half a season until cancelled), (half a season until cancelled) Bolasie, El Ghazi, and Tammy. Plus half-season loans for Mings, Hause and Carroll hardly cheap! Probably cheaper but by how much...? Oh, plus Hogan and McCormack loaned out- but then McCormack loaned out last season, Bree also but he's not I think exactly on major wages.

Not even factored in any potential loan fees they have paid, let alone fees for permanent signings that we do know to be added to the amortisation column- I'll do that later. Then knock off £18-20m in parachute payments, £3m for Bodymoor Heath HS2 compensation- god knows what their losses this year will look like! :shocking::shocking:

They surely need the book thrown good and proper, until they comply- they make Birmingham's fiscal management look not so terrible when you consider they had the luxury (but not for much longer) of about an average of £29-30m per year in parachute payments. Yes they were on a sliding scale but that would be an average I reckon.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Decided to take a quick look at Aston Villa and some early analysis for this season.

Yes their wage bill will surely have come down- Johnstone, Terry, Samba, Snodgrass, Onomah and Grabban all gone. Plus Agbonlahor...Still, a renewal of loan for Tuzunabe, plus loans for Moreira (half a season until cancelled), (half a season until cancelled) Bolasie, El Ghazi, and Tammy. Plus half-season loans for Mings, Hause and Carroll hardly cheap! Probably cheaper but by how much...? Oh, plus Hogan and McCormack loaned out- but then McCormack loaned out last season, Bree also but he's not I think exactly on major wages.

Not even factored in any potential loan fees they have paid, let alone fees for permanent signings that we do know to be added to the amortisation column- I'll do that later. Then knock off £18-20m in parachute payments, £3m for Bodymoor Heath HS2 compensation- god knows what their losses this year will look like! :shocking::shocking:

They surely need the book thrown good and proper, until they comply- they make Birmingham's fiscal management look not so terrible when you consider they had the luxury (but not for much longer) of about an average of £29-30m per year in parachute payments. Yes they were on a sliding scale but that would be an average I reckon.

Remember Bolasie went back to Everton in January, but it's said Villa were paying the full 80k a week wages he's on.

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3 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Remember Bolasie went back to Everton in January, but it's said Villa were paying the full 80k a week wages he's on.

Yep, that's £2m more over half a season or maybe £1.3m. Anyway I think their wage bill likely came down but not by much and by nowhere near enough.

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7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yep, that's £2m more over half a season or maybe £1.3m. Anyway I think their wage bill likely came down but not by much and by nowhere near enough.

You or @Davefevs might find the tweets in this post worth looking at

https://www.villatalk.com/topic/18562-avfc-accounts-2018/?do=findComment&comment=2622421

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5 hours ago, JamesBCFC said:

Im not sure about the series of tweets, and will wait for Mr Pop to run his expert eye over them and give his considered opinion.

However, the forum post at the top of the page caught my eye:

The thing is the january buys dont really say anything, as we could be buying them hoping we will go up and avoid sanctions. Obviously we hope that this is not the case.

It could also mean that were ok in terms of FFP and they have a plan round it etc, if this is so i would love to know how as i cant see any other conclusion other than us failing from what we know so far.

There were suggestions from Purslow that FFP was reset when edens and sawiris came in.  I wonder if like last summer we showed the EFL a plan going forward for them to ok on how wè will comply or fund the losses etc. I believe that our possible case is different to the Blues in a sense that their board failed to come up with a plan the EFL agrees with numerous times going forward and then signed Pedersen whilst under an embargo.

Another fan thinking that promotion enables them to avoid any penalty. Similarly the poster believes that when the new owners came in somehow ffp was "reset" , implying that any club worries about ffp merely needs to change ownership. 

I also like the way he thinks that their situation is different from Birmingham's although showing the EFL a "plan" but still busting ffp limits exonerates the mighty Villa.

Another post mentions that their financial issues would be resolved if they get back to the prem,  "where they belong"! , 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Im not sure about the series of tweets, and will wait for Mr Pop to run his expert eye over them and give his considered opinion.

However, the forum post at the top of the page caught my eye:

The thing is the january buys dont really say anything, as we could be buying them hoping we will go up and avoid sanctions. Obviously we hope that this is not the case.

It could also mean that were ok in terms of FFP and they have a plan round it etc, if this is so i would love to know how as i cant see any other conclusion other than us failing from what we know so far.

There were suggestions from Purslow that FFP was reset when edens and sawiris came in.  I wonder if like last summer we showed the EFL a plan going forward for them to ok on how wè will comply or fund the losses etc. I believe that our possible case is different to the Blues in a sense that their board failed to come up with a plan the EFL agrees with numerous times going forward and then signed Pedersen whilst under an embargo.

Another fan thinking that promotion enables them to avoid any penalty. Similarly the poster believes that when the new owners came in somehow ffp was "reset" , implying that any club worries about ffp merely needs to change ownership. 

I also like the way he thinks that their situation is different from Birmingham's although showing the EFL a "plan" but still busting ffp limits exonerates the mighty Villa.

Another post mentions that their financial issues would be resolved if they get back to the prem,  "where they belong"! , 

 

 

Oh a number of them on there appear to be clueless re FFP.

Thought the tweets might be worth a look as it's someone analysing the accounts, but Mr P and Davefevs understand it all more than myself.

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1 hour ago, downendcity said:

Im not sure about the series of tweets, and will wait for Mr Pop to run his expert eye over them and give his considered opinion.

However, the forum post at the top of the page caught my eye:

The thing is the january buys dont really say anything, as we could be buying them hoping we will go up and avoid sanctions. Obviously we hope that this is not the case.

It could also mean that were ok in terms of FFP and they have a plan round it etc, if this is so i would love to know how as i cant see any other conclusion other than us failing from what we know so far.

There were suggestions from Purslow that FFP was reset when edens and sawiris came in.  I wonder if like last summer we showed the EFL a plan going forward for them to ok on how wè will comply or fund the losses etc. I believe that our possible case is different to the Blues in a sense that their board failed to come up with a plan the EFL agrees with numerous times going forward and then signed Pedersen whilst under an embargo.

Another fan thinking that promotion enables them to avoid any penalty. Similarly the poster believes that when the new owners came in somehow ffp was "reset" , implying that any club worries about ffp merely needs to change ownership. 

I also like the way he thinks that their situation is different from Birmingham's although showing the EFL a "plan" but still busting ffp limits exonerates the mighty Villa.

Another post mentions that their financial issues would be resolved if they get back to the prem,  "where they belong"! , 

 

 

Yes, a common mistake of not understanding the difference between cash flow and p&l / FFP.

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11 hours ago, downendcity said:

Im not sure about the series of tweets, and will wait for Mr Pop to run his expert eye over them and give his considered opinion.

However, the forum post at the top of the page caught my eye:

The thing is the january buys dont really say anything, as we could be buying them hoping we will go up and avoid sanctions. Obviously we hope that this is not the case.

It could also mean that were ok in terms of FFP and they have a plan round it etc, if this is so i would love to know how as i cant see any other conclusion other than us failing from what we know so far.

There were suggestions from Purslow that FFP was reset when edens and sawiris came in.  I wonder if like last summer we showed the EFL a plan going forward for them to ok on how wè will comply or fund the losses etc. I believe that our possible case is different to the Blues in a sense that their board failed to come up with a plan the EFL agrees with numerous times going forward and then signed Pedersen whilst under an embargo.

Another fan thinking that promotion enables them to avoid any penalty. Similarly the poster believes that when the new owners came in somehow ffp was "reset" , implying that any club worries about ffp merely needs to change ownership. 

I also like the way he thinks that their situation is different from Birmingham's although showing the EFL a "plan" but still busting ffp limits exonerates the mighty Villa.

Another post mentions that their financial issues would be resolved if they get back to the prem,  "where they belong"! , 

 

 

First time I've ever been called an expert. :laughcont:

Regards the Tweets, I've seen that account before- think the person behind it is pretty clued up and doesn't try and sugarcoat it at all. His projected likely losses I read when I took a look, I assumed quite likely for them this year as well. He's got the minutiae of the details but his forecasted revenue drops etc are within a couple of million of my big picture ones for them this season- but yeah if there is an Aston Villa fan to read with regards analysis of FFP he's the one!

As usual, on their site a number of Aston Villa fans less than astute on all matters FFP. A good Twitter account to read on it is Camilla Payme- @CamillaPayne7 - the person behind that account has some interesting takes but has gone a bit quiet on it lately- wonder why! :whistle2:

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

First time I've ever been called an expert. :laughcont:

Regards the Tweets, I've seen that account before- think the person behind it is pretty clued up and doesn't try and sugarcoat it at all. His projected likely losses I read when I took a look, I assumed quite likely for them this year as well.

As usual, on their site a number of Aston Villa fans less than astute on all matters FFP. A good Twitter account to read on it is Camilla Payme- @CamillaPayne7 - the person behind that account has some interesting takes but has gone a bit quiet on it lately- wonder why! :whistle2:

Relative to many of us you are an expert or at least more of an expert..

 

 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, JamesBCFC said:

A tweet posted on there - 'Despite this Villa may be okay in terms of FFP as some costs are excluded. Have estimated that FFP losses for last two seasons are £25.1 million so maximum loss for 2018/19 is £13.9 million. Will be tough due to parachute payments falling but not impossible #AVFC'

Some players potentially there to pinch if they need the money then..?

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22 hours ago, hodge said:

A tweet posted on there - 'Despite this Villa may be okay in terms of FFP as some costs are excluded. Have estimated that FFP losses for last two seasons are £25.1 million so maximum loss for 2018/19 is £13.9 million. Will be tough due to parachute payments falling but not impossible #AVFC'

Some players potentially there to pinch if they need the money then..?

I've been trying to project their anticipated FFP adjusted losses for this season- includes a number of assumptions as it has to but it's fair to say they're big- still a work in progress.

Early and basic assumptions:

  • Parachute Payments- down £18-19m
  • The £3m from HS2 is a non-recurring income.
  • Allowable costs, that'd even with the high youth expenditure, be the same as last season.
  • Profit on Player Transfers seems to be down by £7-7.5m.
  • Amortisation on said players reduced- but this is maybe offset or even exceeded by additional amortisation on new signings.
  • This is the most open to question- Wage bill down £10m- but even an idiot like Tony Xia must have realised...plus their new owners/hierarchy appear more savvy.
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