The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)

[chinapig]

53 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

What we do know is the White Paper on introducing an Independent Regulator in football is now due in October. We hope it contains robust proposals on how to address the financial flow and hopefully bring in the much-heralded Sustainability Index.

I fear Prime Minister Truss regards regulation of any kind as, to use her favourite term, un-Conservative. Let's see if the White Paper appears or withers on the vine.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

I fear Prime Minister Truss regards regulation of any kind as, to use her favourite term, un-Conservative. Let's see if the White Paper appears or withers on the vine.

And I would, on the whole, concede that point to her. Regulation is traditionally not the concern of the Conservative party. 

But the counter is that the football market is broken. It's failed to regulate itself. A higher hand is needed to guide it.

Whether she can understand that, or cares about, is up to her.

I understand that to politicians this is, perhaps fairly, a niche issue when compared to climate change, war in Europe, national strikes, energy bills etc. However, none of her supporters will get a vote from me until they come out in support of enforced regulatory change in football. For me this is a ballot box issue.

[Davefevs]

It’s an interesting read isn’t it.

My main grumbling point is the lack of risk management.  Ah, but Covid was unprecedented…as a health matter, maybe, but the reason for lost revenue is irrelevant really.  Clubs had made no plans.  Did they learn nothing from On-Digital?

I think it was @billywedlockthat said we will go through a period of less transfers with a fee in the EFL.  There will still be fees received, but likely to be from PL rather than Champ to Champ.

Im not yet sure whether we will see longer contract terms or shorter ones….maybe we will see longer contracts for the early 20s players, but shorter for the 25+ as high wage commitment is a dangerous game in the uncertain Championship.

Clubs do need to stop relying on “transfer profit”, they should see it as a “bonus” and not plan for it.  I do feel RG and the likes of Forest and Stoke as taking the piss a bit with trying to get the EFL to accept a notion of “we made £x million in the last 5 years, that would extrapolate”, when saleable players in your squad might be very different.

Clubs will have to give Academy players a pathway to keep costs down, at least we are ahead of the game here.

For City, until we know the fate of Massengo, Kalas, Wells, Dasilva and Bentley’s contracts we leave ourselves a bit open to bids for Scott and Semenyo.

[ExiledAjax]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Clubs do need to stop relying on “transfer profit”, they should see it as a “bonus” and not plan for it.  I do feel RG and the likes of Forest and Stoke as taking the piss a bit with trying to get the EFL to accept a notion of “we made £x million in the last 5 years, that would extrapolate”, when saleable players in your squad might be very different.

Yep, but we are 100% relying on the EFL allowing some of this. If they do not then we are in trouble.

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yep, but we are 100% relying on the EFL allowing some of this. If they do not then we are in trouble.

Interesting EA, can you shed any further light? Appreciate that it may not be able especially if was from Club and Trust thing but assuming that it relates to the period ending in 2022/23?

As in, all okay for prior periods.

Nottingham Forest and Stoke, well if they can get away with it...

Edited August 19, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

@GrahamC

Interesting you should mention Almeria. They were in La Liga a few times...however a reason it is interesting in this context is two fold.

Jorge Mendes was once involved at Nottingham Forest, dunno if he still is- but he certainly was involved in Almeria at the same time, just did a bit of quick research.

Arvin Appiah- Nottingham Forest academy product- moved to Almeria for £8m in 2019 or 2020, Mendes link? Carvalho loan maybe followed a similar principle.

Apologies, that was meant for the Nottingham Forest thread!

Edited August 19, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

44 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@GrahamC

Interesting you should mention Almeria. They were in La Liga a few times...however a reason it is interesting in this context is two fold.

Jorge Mendes was once involved at Nottingham Forest, dunno if he still is- but he certainly was involved in Almeria at the same time, just did a bit of quick research.

Arvin Appiah- Nottingham Forest academy product- moved to Almeria for £8m in 2019 or 2020, Mendes link? Carvalho loan maybe followed a similar principle.

Apologies, that was meant for the Nottingham Forest thread!

Whether there’s anything underhand at all I’ve no idea, but even if transfers / fees are done at arms length, players can be moved around to help the financial position of one club short term to the detriment of another and then square the circle later.

We’ve seen other examples too, Watford, Udinese.

Not sure how you sort out, short of banning permanent transfers between clubs with same ownership.

[ExiledAjax]

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

As in, all okay for prior periods.

I believe so yes.

[GrahamC]

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@GrahamC

Interesting you should mention Almeria. They were in La Liga a few times...however a reason it is interesting in this context is two fold.

Jorge Mendes was once involved at Nottingham Forest, dunno if he still is- but he certainly was involved in Almeria at the same time, just did a bit of quick research.

Arvin Appiah- Nottingham Forest academy product- moved to Almeria for £8m in 2019 or 2020, Mendes link? Carvalho loan maybe followed a similar principle.

Apologies, that was meant for the Nottingham Forest thread!

Thanks, I’ve lost track but thought Mendes was behind the Chinese take over at Wolves, which obviously has resulted in an almost entirely Portuguese side there now.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Thanks, I’ve lost track but thought Mendes was behind the Chinese take over at Wolves, which obviously has resulted in an almost entirely Portuguese side there now.

Like with many super agents, think he has his fingers in a lot of pies. Unsure of the finer details.

For example, Joorbrachian certainly has or has had some kind of input into tranfers at Reading but I'd be surprised if they're the only club. He's been seen in the directors box there in the past for sure.

[chinapig]

21 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Thanks, I’ve lost track but thought Mendes was behind the Chinese take over at Wolves, which obviously has resulted in an almost entirely Portuguese side there now.

He is effectively their Director of Football and there is a financial connection between Wolves' owners and his agency. But it's just a coincidence that his clients often sign for them.

The Premier League investigated and found it was all hunky dory. Of course they did, just like they found there was no connection between Newcastle's owners and the Saudi state.

Thank heavens our game is squeaky clean unlike those shady foreigners eh?

[Davefevs]

6 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

I believe so yes.

I’m projecting we are over the £39m (after excludables / allowables)…but not by a huge amount.  But really need to see 21/22 accounts to further correct projections.

[Mr Popodopolous]

47 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m projecting we are over the £39m (after excludables / allowables)…but not by a huge amount.  But really need to see 21/22 accounts to further correct projections.

Agreed on this Dave. While since I've looked properly but had a couple of workings as around £4m...but then I expect I am overshooting, veering on the side of excessive caution  as I sometimes do. *Couple of million maybe?

*Basis for my workings is headline loss minus the typical £5m per season in allowables then the £5m x 2 and £2.5m x 1 in Covid allowable as voted on in February. Clearly this can potentially rise.

I estimate on that basis fwiw that if we have a P&S loss exceeding £10m tops, perhaps £9-9.5m in 2022/23 then we fail.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Rudolf Hucker]

On 19/08/2022 at 12:16, ExiledAjax said:

… none of her supporters will get a vote from me. Ever.

That’s better! 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Stoke have 4 PL loanees in the starting 11 and a permanently signed Gayle on the bench.*

We seem not to have two pennies to rub together, is exact equal treatment being handed down from an FFP perspective.

*Harry Clarke also on loan from Arsenal, maybe injured or something. McCarron young player signed permanent from Leeds, not in the 18.

@ExiledAjax @Davefevs 

@chinapig

Yes yes I know teams still have time to balance the books, us included but something doesn't seem right with this. I hope Messrs Could and Lansdown will be raising matters with the EFL. Other clubs too.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[chinapig]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yes yes I know teams still have time to balance the books, us included but something doesn't seem right with this. I hope Messrs Could and Lansdown will be raising matters with the EFL. Other clubs too.

I suspect we may be hoping that the EFL will treat both clubs generously. Weren't we partners in crime in claiming lost transfer revenue and asking for changes in the P&S regs?

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I suspect we may be hoping that the EFL will treat both clubs generously. Weren't we partners in crime in claiming lost transfer revenue and asking for changes in the P&S regs?

Perhaps and that's a good point as Lansdown did refer to Stoke as an example of a very well run club in an interview in February.

Yes we wanted x in Lost transfer revenue, Stoke wanted iirc £30m in 2019-20 for the Covid Impairment and £11m in 2020/21 for the lost transfer profits, savings- whatever net gain.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Ah Reading, a side under an EFL Business Plan who failed FFP.

Have Hendrick on loan, a young Nottingham Forest loanee and a probably young Porto loanee in CM.

Nottingham Forest loanee has just put them ahead v Middlesbrough.

Just double checked. The Porto loanee is young but not so young, 25. Definitely not a regular for Porto but played 32 times for La Liga Alaves last season as per Wiki. Albeit Alaves did finish bottom of La Liga and went down!

Edited August 20, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Interesting snippet in Ahead of the Game by Matt Hughes this week.

PL seemingly are close to agreeing a funding package for the EFL but want the Championship to adopt their spending rules, ie the higher limits but their version of the revenue to football costs rule...90% in year 1, 80% in year 2 and settling finally, on 70% in Year 3.

[chinapig]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interesting snippet in Ahead of the Game by Matt Hughes this week.

PL seemingly are close to agreeing a funding package for the EFL but want the Championship to adopt their spending rules, ie the higher limits but their version of the revenue to football costs rule...90% in year 1, 80% in year 2 and settling finally, on 70% in Year 3.

Isn't that what UEFA have proposed?

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Isn't that what UEFA have proposed?

Yes, will have to re-read the column. Although as I recall there were some differences between the domestic one and the UEFA one- fixed asset sale profits the big one.

UEFA adjusted out from the off, whereas the EFL from 2016/17 to 2020/21, seemed to permit the inclusion in P&S calculations, possibly due to PL influence.

Would be interesting to know if the EFL would copy and paste the UEFA ones or if the domestic version would have some differences..perhaps driven by the PL.

They often demand some kind of harmonisation or favourable terms for their cash, the PL that is.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interesting snippet in Ahead of the Game by Matt Hughes this week.

PL seemingly are close to agreeing a funding package for the EFL but want the Championship to adopt their spending rules, ie the higher limits but their version of the revenue to football costs rule...90% in year 1, 80% in year 2 and settling finally, on 70% in Year 3.

Although I prefer this to FFP, it needs to be done with a change to PPs also.

Have to have something like a 12 month moratorium on contracts signed in the summer of the season before without a relegation reduction, to not be included in full in the first season after relegation.  You then get 12 months to go back up, move them on, or renegotiate their contract.  Something like that.  The PP (far lower amount please) then acts more like coverage of lost revenue but not for inclusion in the wage to revenue %.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Not City or Championship related- at the UEFA level.

https://www.insideworldfootball.com/2022/08/23/barca-psg-juve-top-list-clubs-facing-new-ffp-crackdown/

Seems some big hitters could be in trouble- this would be to the period ending 2020/21 which was the 4 year period of 2017/18, 2018/19 and then the combined average of 2021/22.

20 more are on a watch list for potential issues for the season just gone- including irony of ironies, Arsenal!

The final period of FFP will be the one ending in 2022/23- I assume sanctions and investigations will apply up to then and it's the new system thereafter- how ironic would it be if we were the final Championship club to fall foul of P&S in its current form. Then any club who might be set to breach in 2023/24 or even 2024/25...new system eh??

Am a little surprised at PSG in that I thought their issues would arise to the period ending 2021/22 or perhaps 2022/23 when a profitable year dropped off. They were reportedly looking to offload between 10-15 players but their progress has been mixed.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

I see both Forest and Watford trying it in today.

Watford sell a player for £16m and then loan him back. Hey, what’s the problem? The problem is their owner also owns Udinese.

Forest about to buy a player for £5m from relegated Bordeaux, then loan him to Olympiacos.  Hey, what’s the problem?  The problem is their owner also owns Olympiacos.

This needs to be stopped.

[GrahamC]

Just now, billywedlock said:

Guernsey FC are about to buy Chukwuemeka for £20 m and loan him to Bristol City for the next 5 years 

Think they should buy Semenyo & Scott for £38m & then loan them back to us.

That’s how it works, isn’t it?

Cheating bastards.

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I see both Forest and Watford trying it in today.

Watford sell a player for £16m and then loan him back. Hey, what’s the problem? The problem is their owner also owns Udinese.

Forest about to buy a player for £5m from relegated Bordeaux, then loan him to Olympiacos.  Hey, what’s the problem?  The problem is their owner also owns Olympiacos.

This needs to be stopped.

The Watford player has also featured in 4 games for them already & was suspended for the other.

This is just bollocks, it isn’t even sharing players around like Watford & Udinese do, he clearly was & remains Watford’s player but they get a load of money to offset FFP.

Cheating.

[SuperRed]

Chairman chief executive Scott Duxbury said of the deal: “This further protects the club at a time when balancing financial wellbeing and retaining a squad to compete at the top end of the Championship are our top priorities.

“Taking Rob’s (Edwards – head coach) guidance, we’ll review our options at the end of this season once divisional status is confirmed.”
 

Taking the piss! 

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, SuperRed said:

Chairman chief executive Scott Duxbury said of the deal: “This further protects the club at a time when balancing financial wellbeing and retaining a squad to compete at the top end of the Championship are our top priorities.

“Taking Rob’s (Edwards – head coach) guidance, we’ll review our options at the end of this season once divisional status is confirmed.”
 

Taking the piss! 

Blatant.

[Mr Popodopolous]

It is a massive pisstake- and though we are predominantly concerned about our level as a concept it distorts it all.

I would suggest e.g. that Udinese during Covid would not attract Pererya and Deulofeu on the open market- yet in summer 2020, that exact transfer played out.

The Nottingham Forest Bordeaux signing loaned to Olympiakos- I would suggest that is also to the benefit of Olympiakos...it works both ways, distorts at both ends and is cheating plain and simple. Usually Nottingham Forest and Olympiakos used to share around relatively low cost or free signings...often frees or whatever, but buying a player for several million then loaning to a sister club is a nonsense- this Watford one an 8 figure profit AND loaned back is as I said elsewhere the worst yet.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

One more detail on FFP. Been reading a little about it again.

While it is true that the loss limit will double, it is also true that excludable costs will no longer be counted as such.

ie, current rules see a £50m 3 year pre tax loss, but with £4m in allowables a year would be a £38m 3 year FFP figure, just within a £39m limit.

Whereas the new allowable element of it means that yes you'd be well within but not excluded...£28m within actually.

£50m pre-tax loss would be just that...but with £78m to aim at you're well within, especially with the 90>80>70% of football costs as a percentage if turnover that is coming in.

This is assuming that the EFL vote to double that limit, is in line with the UEFA levels. It can be designed to incentivise spending in youth, community etc.