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The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)


Mr Popodopolous
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20 minutes ago, reddoh said:

it is quite sad that a team that turned themselves around and floated to the top and were a model club to base your team on have dived so badly but I guess changing manager and owner(s) is possibly not the best maybe @Miah Dennehy can enlighten us

Looking in from the outside.

My take is that on the pitch their decline began with Laudrup sacking- Monk tough he did well for a time, was tactically a significant break from latter stage Jackett but for the most part it began with Martinez, through to Laudrup, via a slightly more pragmatic/tactical (but still technically good) Sousa and between Sousa and Laudrup of course Rodgers. They had a brilliant model on and off the pitch.

Off the pitch, getting in the American investors did for them in that sense and investors as opposed to benefactors appears to be the key word. Throw in instability and it is quite the collapse.

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Looking in from the outside.

My take is that on the pitch their decline began with Laudrup sacking- Monk tough he did well for a time, was tactically a significant break from latter stage Jackett but for the most part it began with Martinez, through to Laudrup, via a slightly more pragmatic/tactical (but still technically good) Sousa.

Off the pitch, getting in the American investors did for them in that sense and investors as opposed to benefactors appears to be the key word. Throw in instability and it is quite the collapse.

I believe at some point in the past @RedM said their are some managers that can get you up, some that keep you up (the next was not her words) some that are oops, whilst I agreed with the post I also thought about it and I personally believe that to be successful in any league you actually have to get off the pitch right first and I am not talking about out of date pasties.

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7 minutes ago, reddoh said:

I believe at some point in the past @RedM said their are some managers that can get you up, some that keep you up (the next was not her words) some that are oops, whilst I agreed with the post I also thought about it and I personally believe that to be successful in any league you actually have to get off the pitch right first and I am not talking about out of date pasties.

Can’t take the credit for that I don’t think, sounds too intelligent and thought out for me. :laugh:

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25 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Mr Popodopolous thought Norwich were in final season too?  They came down with Villa and one of the spreadsheets I got from your old posts says they get£15.1m this year. 

6B27283F-736A-4AC9-BAE2-09370E00C87C.jpeg

The rules seem to keep changing Dave!

I can't be certain on this, but so far as I've kept up to date with, those relegated after 1 season get the 2 years i.e. those who come straight down only get one and that would be from 2015/16- local Norwich media seemed to suggest last season was end of parachute payments for them i.e. final season when I looked into it. Also their site suggests they are zero this year.

https://www.canaries.co.uk/News/2018/october/norwich-city-annual-accounts/

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Not been on this thread for a little while.

Kieran Maguire's first letter of each paragraph acronyms- is it acronyms, is that right- absolute quality. One of the best aspects of football writing in 2018-19!

QPR lost £37m last season- however £20m of that was the FFP fine which of course excluded from calculations. They're still okay FFP wise and might even be next season, but big, big challenges for them moving forward. This is Year 4 of 4 of parachute payments but thereafter...knock £13-17m off (depending on calculations) but you add back on parachute payments. Reckon they won't be able to renew Rangel, Cameron, Wells or Hemed if they are to comply plus Freeman and Eze should attract interest- may have to sell at least one of those?

Cardiff lost £13-14m last season but their headline loss £38m- cost of promotion though came to £23m or so- that includes bonuses, fees due, possibly landmarks in fees based on it etc and is excluded for FFP purposes- I think they likely compiled over 3 years but there wasn't much in it. Certainly not quite on a shoestring, but notable nonetheless.

In theory by no later than 28th February 2019, the results for Nottingham Forest, Sheffield Wednesday and most notably Aston Villa are due out. These will be telling! Wolves results from last season too though I think they were fine- not by much but anything up to and including the limit would see them pass.

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Those accounts that are due today- those big 3 plus assorted others.

Aston Villa? No sign yet. Nottingham Forest submitted theirs and being processed at Companies House. Interestingly Sheffield Wednesday have extended their accounting period for 2018 to July from May...so late April you'd think. Wigan we roughly know, not in FFP mess,  Wolves no sign yet- think they passed 3 year FFP but would have been close! 

Birmingham I saw on Twitter,  their parent company in Hong Kong posted 6 month results to end of December. Let's say half season but yeah 6 month losses of parent company somewhere between £13-17m, will look into it later. Real losses maybe a bit lower but not by a lot.

Failing FFP still it appears- THROW THE BOOK!! If they sell Adams and Jota that certainly would help...

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Nottingham Forest headline loss £5,596,000 HOWEVER that includes a debt write off of £5m which under FFP does not count so add £5m to that.

I looked back at my own projections for their losses last season- and only around £2m out which I think given no publicly given wage figures for new signings not a bad effort. I had it about £12.4m for their losses last season inclusive of transfer profit, changes in amortisation etc- and the primary reason for that was I overestimated their transfer profit by about £2.4m.

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Though they were relegated last season- perhaps linked to this, Barnsley's accounts make for interesting reading.

Barnsley were nowhere near FFP- nowhere near. Actually before player trading made an Operating Profit of £398,000- excellent by Championship standards...yet they made hay when the sun shone financially and sold Bree,  Hourihane and Winnall in January 2017 when they were on the edge of the playoffs. Profit on transfers of £12,449,746- £100 on interest was profit of £12,848,354 in 2016/17. :clap: Mawson had been sold in August and they got a sell on for Stones so I believe they didn't need to sell Bree, Hourihane or Winnall when they were near top 6.

2017/18- A miniscule loss (by Championship standards) of £1,403,156, interest payments £100 too. Obviously player trading/profit took that loss down again, £176,331. They sold Roberts but also lost Messrs Scowen and Marley Watkins (yes I know).

Now there is a club who made quite a few unnecessary sales! Assumed they were selling them to balance the books but seemed according to their accounts pretty well unnecessary- ended up losing a good side and going down!

Lesson in there for us!

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9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Though they were relegated last season- perhaps linked to this, Barnsley's accounts make for interesting reading.

Barnsley were nowhere near FFP- nowhere near. Actually before player trading made an Operating Profit of £398,000- excellent by Championship standards...yet they made hay when the sun shone financially and sold Bree,  Hourihane and Winnall in January 2017 when they were on the edge of the playoffs. Profit on transfers of £12,449,746- £100 on interest was profit of £12,848,354 in 2016/17. :clap: Mawson had been sold in August and they got a sell on for Stones so I believe they didn't need to sell Bree, Hourihane or Winnall when they were near top 6.

2017/18- A miniscule loss (by Championship standards) of £1,403,156, interest payments £100 too. Obviously player trading/profit took that loss down again, £176,331. They sold Roberts but also lost Messrs Scowen and Marley Watkins (yes I know).

Now there is a club who made quite a few unnecessary sales! Assumed they were selling them to balance the books but seemed according to their accounts pretty well unnecessary- ended up losing a good side and going down!

Lesson in there for us!

Is it possible they are working to the £5m unbacked losses FFP model, so playing safe.  They also used to submit less detailed accounts too, not sure if that has any bearing in their size and backing?

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18 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Is it possible they are working to the £5m unbacked losses FFP model, so playing safe.  They also used to submit less detailed accounts too, not sure if that has any bearing in their size and backing?

Yeah that's possible and the less detailed accounts too, helps signify a smaller company. When they had already made an operating profit though- plus the cash from Mawson sale and Stones sell on- it still looking in from outside admittedly, looks like it wasn't necessary. I'm all for understanding the wishes of a club to be as profitable as possible, but that just seemed odd- clearing balance sheet maybe for takeover.

Essentially, I'd have sold them even with the small operating profit if midtable and going neither up nor down- but not if on the edge of playoffs and playing well- that's my outsiders view. Probably would have made a few million in profit due to Stones sell on and Mawson sale in any case.

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8 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

It looks like they`re well and truly in the shit then? Surely no amount of creative accounting can make this look alright can it?

It`s what happens when you stick everything on red. Those who criticise the way City do things need to take a long hard look at this.

You've reckoned without their newly appointed accountant.

 

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14 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

It looks like they`re well and truly in the shit then? Surely no amount of creative accounting can make this look alright can it?

It`s what happens when you stick everything on red. Those who criticise the way City do things need to take a long hard look at this.

This from Villa's forum today:

We cannot and will not go on like this.

I think some people are in for a shock in the summer when we have to build an entire new team with no money, no turnover and very few sellable assets.

I think Hogan is loaned out to get games and will probably start the main man next year.

I see no feasible way we can afford or attract Mings. Smith is going nowhere because he is cheap, will work with what he has been given and will be desperate to succeed regardless.

That is the honest truth. I think some people are living in an alternative reality with regards to the summer.

I expect cheap free journeymen. Clayton Donaldson's and the like.

Edit : not that I am against working on a budget now. Other teams do it and get out the league. How many times have we been outplayed by a side built on frees and flops molded into a team since we have been down here?

Sobering reading for any City fans who don;t think the FFP is a thing or that SL uses FFP as a convenient excuse for not spending his money.

Sounds like Villa fans are bracing themselves for the worst when their accounts are assessed by the EFL. Could be a major watershed moment if they bust the limits and are properly punished. 

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10 minutes ago, downendcity said:

This from Villa's forum today:

We cannot and will not go on like this.

I think some people are in for a shock in the summer when we have to build an entire new team with no money, no turnover and very few sellable assets.

I think Hogan is loaned out to get games and will probably start the main man next year.

I see no feasible way we can afford or attract Mings. Smith is going nowhere because he is cheap, will work with what he has been given and will be desperate to succeed regardless.

That is the honest truth. I think some people are living in an alternative reality with regards to the summer.

I expect cheap free journeymen. Clayton Donaldson's and the like.

Edit : not that I am against working on a budget now. Other teams do it and get out the league. How many times have we been outplayed by a side built on frees and flops molded into a team since we have been down here?

Sobering reading for any City fans who don;t think the FFP is a thing or that SL uses FFP as a convenient excuse for not spending his money.

Sounds like Villa fans are bracing themselves for the worst when their accounts are assessed by the EFL. Could be a major watershed moment if they bust the limits and are properly punished. 

Your last 3 words are the key ones.The EFL keep kicking the can down the road as far as Brum are concerned. How much more reluctant will they be to grasp the nettle when it comes to Villa?

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20 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Your last 3 words are the key ones.The EFL keep kicking the can down the road as far as Brum are concerned. How much more reluctant will they be to grasp the nettle when it comes to Villa?

Which is what most of us are convinced they will be. FFP just becomes a sham without meaningful sanctions but I think we all fear what will (or won`t) happen.

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1 hour ago, chinapig said:

Your last 3 words are the key ones.The EFL keep kicking the can down the road as far as Brum are concerned. How much more reluctant will they be to grasp the nettle when it comes to Villa?

 

1 hour ago, Red Right Hand said:

Which is what most of us are convinced they will be. FFP just becomes a sham without meaningful sanctions but I think we all fear what will (or won`t) happen.

I know this has been mentioned before ( probably within this thread) but should the EFL duck the issue, then the crunch/pressure could come from the other clubs.

If you are a club that has compromised it's situation in order to ensure you comply with FFP, how will you feel if you see a "big" club getting away with what is effectively a rap on the knuckles, rather than the meaningful penalties that were being bandied around when the changes were announced? I would hope ( perhaps naively) that those other clubs will take action against the EFL, demanding appropriate action against defaulting clubs.

There is one other consideration, using Villa as an example. We have all talked about points deduction as being the major penalty/deterrent, but what if, by the time the FFP decision is made,Villa are well out of the play off race but completely safe from any worry about relegation but they have bust FFP limits out of the park? Villa would have been expecting the worst, but if they are given a points deduction it might only scupper their remote play off hopes, and at worst  put them on the periphery of the relegation fight. They could see that as a right result, as once penalised,  then I think I'm right in saying they start with a clean slate and this year's loss is ignored going forward.

If so, then as long as their owner has the finance available they could go relatively hell for leather to change and improve their squad and be competitive the following season. I know the EFL could combine a points deductions with a substantial fine and/or a transfer embargo, but would they have the means to carry a points deduction forward to the following season, as this would then be a meaningful penalty and would avoid a club being penalised but not really ( i that makes sense)?

  

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Juju Well,  we won't get the full picture until Recon Group UK Limited's results are released but it looks bad for Aston Villa.

Haven't had the chance to analyse the figures in full yet but pretty sure for the 3 years to last season, they passed. This season however, failed and likely big time at that e.g. 2016/17-present.

A key reason they would have passed last season is PL loss limit £35m plus allowed costs in a season whereas our league is £13m plus allowed costs in a season. 

@downendcity

There is no great clarity on this, but according to a respected blogger Al majir on all things Birmingham financial, once punished the obligation on the club for the remainder of the period is £13m losses (plus allowable costs) each remaining season of it.

The difficulty here comes is that 16/17 is a 3 year FFP period but if it's rolling as I think then they would- and just say they lose £40m this season.

That would mean reducing losses by £27m in a year while £13-14m in parachute payments goes! Huge adjustment...same the next season too.  Selling Grealish would solve year 1 but would be tough for a while.

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6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Wonder if Brum has been put back to March to wait for projected accounts for several clubs, so that they can dish out consistent penalties?

I've wondered if this is  the case Dave.

Dealing with one club on isolation could make a rod for their own back. Hit Brum really hard creates a precedent and what if; say, Villa announce eye watering losses? If they give the same penalty as Brum; then Birmingham would be up arms. Treat Villa more severely; say an even more swinging points pebalty; it could put them in danger of relegation and you would probably then see Villa getting lawyers Involved.

I thought one of the reasons for using projected year 3 figures was so that they would all be available at the same time - irrespective of club's actual financial year end. 

Perhaps the reason for The ELF addressing Brum now is that they have been managing their finances under the eye of the EFL since their embargo.

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Well Wolves financial results are out.

The headline loss for last season is £55.15m which makes it sound like they have smashed FFP. HOWEVER treat with caution due to promotion bonuses which in Cardiff's case e.g. once factoring in clauses due to other clubs as well which are exempt, ran to £23m, no disclosure of those for Wolves yet, they need to be knocked off as and when. Plus don't know how much their new regime invested in infrastructure, youth etc over the 3 years- so it's not certain they have broken it but not enough info to say for sure at this stage. Summed up in one word however? Eye-watering!

In layman's terms, if their promotion bonuses and costs no less than £16m plus the often touted £6m per year spent on infrastructure, academy etc over this 3 year period then they would have took it very near the limit, perhaps up to- but not over. Would have to analyse the figures in full though later plus when (if) promotion bonuses arise ands are disclosed.

Right now though, with what we know for sure it looks like it may have been breached...but those excluded costs have to be taken into account. Shows how well sides like us and though they are a notch lower, Preston, Brentford and in last season's case Millwall- oh and Sheffield United- have done to compete for as long as we did in some ways. Once last seasons results in for all clubs we'll be able to see where we ranked in terms of wage bill (once promotion bonuses etc excluded)...

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The moment of truth for Aston Villa will be in the coming day or 2...

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10176070/filing-history

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05891280/filing-history

Think they are spun off into 4 companies- Aston Villa Limited and Recon Football which are useful but not decisive. The one to watch most for last season I'd say is Recon Group UK Limited and possibly (though not looked into it so much), Recon Sports Limited. These are the 2 above who have submitted and we'll know all probably sometime tomorrow?

With the takeover, who knows (or at this stage cares) what the right company will be in 2020 for their financial results this season?

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3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well Wolves financial results are out.

The headline loss for last season is £55.15m which makes it sound like they have smashed FFP. HOWEVER treat with caution due to promotion bonuses which in Cardiff's case e.g. once factoring in clauses due to other clubs as well which are exempt, ran to £23m, no disclosure of those for Wolves yet, they need to be knocked off as and when. Plus don't know how much their new regime invested in infrastructure, youth etc over the 3 years- so it's not certain they have broken it but not enough info to say for sure at this stage. Summed up in one word however? Eye-watering!

In layman's terms, if their promotion bonuses and costs no less than £16m plus the often touted £6m per year spent on infrastructure, academy etc over this 3 year period then they would have took it very near the limit, perhaps up to- but not over. Would have to analyse the figures in full though later plus when (if) promotion bonuses arise ands are disclosed.

Right now though, with what we know for sure it looks like it may have been breached...but those excluded costs have to be taken into account. Shows how well sides like us and though they are a notch lower, Preston, Brentford and in last season's case Millwall- oh and Sheffield United- have done to compete for as long as we did in some ways. Once last seasons results in for all clubs we'll be able to see where we ranked in terms of wage bill (once promotion bonuses etc excluded)...

Some crazy figures here 

IMG_20190305_122828.jpg

IMG_20190305_122832.jpg

IMG_20190305_122836.jpg

IMG_20190305_122842.jpg

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15 minutes ago, phantom said:

Some crazy figures here 

IMG_20190305_122828.jpg

IMG_20190305_122832.jpg

IMG_20190305_122836.jpg

IMG_20190305_122842.jpg

You're not wrong! Promotion bonuses of say £20m (not an unreasonable guess for players of that calibre, owners of that wealth) would be excluded though, profit on transfers would offset too. Plus all their more routine excluded costs- one estimate was £18m of excluded costs in the previous 3 seasons.

Most clubs do list 'cost of promotion'- i.e. bonuses or payments due to clubs in the event of promotion which otherwise would not have been due- somewhere in their accounts though, yet nothing yet- so I do wonder...

The Championship Operating losses are just nuts- shows how quickly wages in general, and at times fees have risen at this level- while TV revenue has been left trailing...

The only way to solve it in the long term would be an annual breakeven requirement from operational revenue plus profit on sales whatever that maybe, but I am sure no club would vote for that- plus it would necessitate wages plummeting across the board at this level and the EFL wouldn't like it either because it would reduce the quality of product over time. This emoji sums up the chances of that happening! 🦄

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