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FA Cup 4th Round Draw - Bolton (H)


redsapper

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8 minutes ago, Badger08 said:

Cup runs boost clubs. Is that an actual fact you're quoting there?  Or an opinion? 

It’s a pretty valid opinion tbh!

Take our run last year - you can argue that the run ultimately affected our league form but there were no guarantees of going up anyway - and the run brought national exposure, financial rewards and I’ll wager made players look at us as a more serious proposition. For example - would Kalas have considered us as a lower half champ club?  (I don’t know but the exposure can’t have hurt his decision).

Lower down the pyramid take Lincoln - their FA cup run of a couple of years ago paid for a new training facility.

If it was a stone cold fact that going on a cup run meant a club would fail in the league then you may have a case in saying they don’t boost clubs. As it is, I can’t see @Nogbad the Bad‘s opinion being anything other than the right one.

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Have we got a big enough squad to rotate and not risk our key players? Defo so want to win the next round too. 

Did last seasons dip (to put it mildly) in form only happen because we had a cup run v both Manchester Cup runs? No, of course not, we didn't have the players who could sustain 50+games of high tempo so we can want a cup run this season. 

For me, to have a cup run we want to get the weakest teams (and possibly away where our form is best) until we get so far only a Spurs or Liverpool is the outcome;namely a day out again at Wembley with our league season already finished as a success! ? 

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8 minutes ago, Badger08 said:

Brilliant. So fatigue doesn't play a part in it at all.

Well let's just take your traditionally opinion to one side, and let's look at the sports science facts shall we?  Teams that take a long run in cup competitions see player stats dramatically drop for the remaining 3rd on the season.  Some would argue the time of the season players need to actually maintain or peak. Especially if you're looking at a playoff run. 

Also, teams who go futher into a cup competition seem to drop on average a points deficit of 0.861 per game. This is stats take  from  between 1996 to 2016 from  teams in all different leagues across the world. That's not even taking into  consideration the extra risk of injury.

These are the facts, not an off the cuff "traditionally" opinion.  

So as much as a one off game appeals to me, I'm fed up with "one off" cup games, I want a cup game every week in the Premier League. Why risk our chances of that when we're in such a good place right now is beyond me.

We are mid table - we aren’t going to go up this season. 

Enjoy the cup, enjoy the memories (like Man Utd last season), and worry less about what ifs.

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4 minutes ago, Selred said:

We are mid table - we aren’t going to go up this season. 

Enjoy the cup, enjoy the memories (like Man Utd last season), and worry less about what ifs.

Agree with this. What’s most likely to happen is we continue this run until Forest before going on a losing run again, where annoyingly all the ‘LJ is the worst’ fans come out of hiding etc. We recover to finish mid-table. 

So a cup run very welcome. 

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16 minutes ago, Badger08 said:

I completely get that, but the game is about those small margins, and I'd rather have the small margins on my side. 

Only 5 points off the playoffs. Are you basically giving up? You don't think we can gain 5 points? 

More fun to dream of the "double", reality is a top ten finish will be an improvement, and will set us up for a go next year. A cup run will add some spice to the season, increase our profile, and make us a better proposition for all the brilliant new players we will sign in the summer.............?

Optimism is good for your health, ......

 

 

 

 

 

 

??????

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40 minutes ago, Badger08 said:

I completely get that, but the game is about those small margins, and I'd rather have the small margins on my side. 

Only 5 points off the playoffs. Are you basically giving up? You don't think we can gain 5 points? 

Why can’t we do both? Cup run didn’t harm us in the first half of last season. Was a great performance and result yesterday which will only breed confidence for next week. Let’s go for it on both fronts. 

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11 minutes ago, lenred said:

Why can’t we do both? Cup run didn’t harm us in the first half of last season. Was a great performance and result yesterday which will only breed confidence for next week. Let’s go for it on both fronts. 

I agree no one last season complained when we were top 3 and beating premier league sides in the cup.

Was only after Wolves at home and LJ started to rest/ tweak the squad that our form dipped. 

Not one player complained of fatigue during both Man City games, we just signed the wrong players and played players (Wright) with injuries and changed the team to much each game.

Didn’t effect Man City in the league and they played more games than us I believe.

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1 minute ago, wendyredredrobin said:

I don't know if it's been mentioned as I haven't read the whole thread but we are ball 15 in the draw at 9:45 pm on Monday

Plus, the prize money has been upped this season and it's 180K to each winning club in round 4.

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16 hours ago, REDOXO said:

Spurs at home!

EDIT....Away would be fun!!

Not for me, unless it’s the first match in their new home. Got to have a test match sometime? I went to see it when I was in London a couple of weeks ago, it looks amazing, if strangely right on the main road, no run off at all, they must have used every inch they could. 

For me a Prem team away, we seem to do well against Prem teams. Would be nice to revisit Liverpool after all these years. :clapping:

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15 hours ago, pongo88 said:

I’d like Accrington Stanley at home, as we have beaten them for a while (have we ever played them?). The win against Stoke was the first  New Year’s Day away win since 1903 so 2019 could be a year of firsts, including an F A Cup final win 

1958 FA Cup was the only time we played them as far as I can see.

2-2 draw away then a 3-1 win in the replay.

I'd like a lower level team at home in round 4 then (if we win) a top club at home in round 5. That's when the bigger clubs start to take it seriously and put out a proper first team, Man.Utd part II would be good.

 

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6 hours ago, Silvio Dante said:

It’s a pretty valid opinion tbh!

Take our run last year - you can argue that the run ultimately affected our league form but there were no guarantees of going up anyway - and the run brought national exposure, financial rewards and I’ll wager made players look at us as a more serious proposition. For example - would Kalas have considered us as a lower half champ club?  (I don’t know but the exposure can’t have hurt his decision).

Lower down the pyramid take Lincoln - their FA cup run of a couple of years ago paid for a new training facility.

If it was a stone cold fact that going on a cup run meant a club would fail in the league then you may have a case in saying they don’t boost clubs. As it is, I can’t see @Nogbad the Bad‘s opinion being anything other than the right one.

Think it also helped our momentum in the League for a while too- beat Palace 4-1, then we beat Sunderland, Fulham and Cardiff on the bounce in successive games.

Spurred us on a bit, added confidence and belief to an already fairly confident side IMO.

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6 hours ago, Badger08 said:

Brilliant. So fatigue doesn't play a part in it at all.

Well let's just take your traditionally opinion to one side, and let's look at the sports science facts shall we?  Teams that take a long run in cup competitions see player stats dramatically drop for the remaining 3rd on the season.  Some would argue the time of the season players need to actually maintain or peak. Especially if you're looking at a playoff run. 

Also, teams who go futher into a cup competition seem to drop on average a points deficit of 0.861 per game. This is stats take  from  between 1996 to 2016 from  teams in all different leagues across the world. That's not even taking into  consideration the extra risk of injury.

These are the facts, not an off the cuff "traditionally" opinion.  

So as much as a one off game appeals to me, I'm fed up with "one off" cup games, I want a cup game every week in the Premier League. Why risk our chances of that when we're in such a good place right now is beyond me.

Your a millenial, arnt you?

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6 hours ago, Hampshire Red said:

Have we got a big enough squad to rotate and not risk our key players? Defo so want to win the next round too. 

Did last seasons dip (to put it mildly) in form only happen because we had a cup run v both Manchester Cup runs? No, of course not, we didn't have the players who could sustain 50+games of high tempo so we can want a cup run this season. 

For me, to have a cup run we want to get the weakest teams (and possibly away where our form is best) until we get so far only a Spurs or Liverpool is the outcome;namely a day out again at Wembley with our league season already finished as a success! ? 

Not sure we do have the squad. Pack and Brownhill the only fit CMF , plus Morrell who can't really be classed as an option yet. 

As for last years run, pretty sure we rotated a lot in the earlier games, I'm fairly sure that between the 2 teams at Watford there were 20+ changes. It was only later in the run we played a progressively stronger side, partly through necessity because of injuries.

If we get through the next round (26th Jan) , then Walsh and Smith could be available for the 5th round (16th Feb) with a little luck. Then we might have the players to rotate. You never know , might have some in before with the window now open. 

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