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W10 D5 L5 = 73 points - can we do it?


headhunter

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I read recently that 73 points has been the average to finish 6th and therefore secure that last play off spot.

With 20 games to go and our current points total that 10-5-5 sequence would give us 73 points - can we do it?

It equates to 1.85 points per game which we have done more than once for an extended period under LJ's stewardship. 

Pick 5 games we might lose in the last 20 which leaves 15 we CANNOT lose. 

My 5 nil points are: Boro, Norwich, Sheffield Utd and Villa all away and Derby at home.

A big ask not to lose any other games!

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This weekend will be a big one in this respect IMO.

We play Bolton at home, a Bolton in crisis. Meanwhile, the following fixtures all take place and can enable us to perhaps make up significant ground- so long as we fly under the radar a bit, it will help us...

  • Birmingham v Middlesbrough
  • Leeds v Derby
  • Sheffield United v QPR
  • West Brom v Norwich

Derby and Middlesbrough could both easily drop points there, QPR I would say it is likely they do and one or both West Brom and Norwich- though they are surely aiming at the automatic spots- could too. If we hold up our end of the bargain and win Saturday, and hopefully win quite well, that gap could suddenly start to look a lot more manageable.

However I think we'll fall short come May. Possibly we'll take it to the last few weeks/games but I can't see us getting into the top 6 myself.

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13 minutes ago, headhunter said:

I read recently that 73 points has been the average to finish 6th and therefore secure that last play off spot.

With 20 games to go and our current points total that 10-5-5 sequence would give us 73 points - can we do it?

It equates to 1.85 points per game which we have done more than once for an extended period under LJ's stewardship. 

A big ask not to lose any other games!

SL sees the top six as the target - he said as much at the Senior Reds Xmas lunch and there were one or two raised eyebrows at that comment.....

Its realistic of course if City can maintain consistent results.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This weekend will be a big one in this respect IMO.

We play Bolton at home, a Bolton in crisis. Meanwhile, the following fixtures all take place and can enable us to perhaps make up significant ground- so long as we fly under the radar a bit, it will help us:

  • Birmingham v Middlesbrough
  • Leeds v Derby
  • Sheffield United v QPR
  • West Brom v Norwich

However I think we'll fall short come May. Possibly we'll take it to the last few weeks/games but I can't see us getting into the top 6 myself.

It’s one round of the Championship fixtures - should City struggle against Bolton and and get a point it won’t make a huge difference regardless of other results.

That said if City are on the fringe of the top six with 10 games remaining........

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41 minutes ago, Robbored said:

It’s one round of the Championship fixtures - should City struggle against Bolton and and get a point it won’t make a huge difference regardless of other results.

That said if City are on the fringe of the top six with 10 games remaining........

In terms of points you are right.

However, it's about pressure too, confidence, momentum- if suddenly sides see an increasingly confident side- say for argument's sake Derby draw or lose and Birmingham v Middlesbrough is a draw and we beat Bolton 3-0. It's a big if, especially us winning 3-0 and QPR lose too and I don't know, WBA v Norwich a draw is plausible isn't it. Those sides suddenly see a side growing in confidence coming up on the rails, overtaking 2 of them (I would assume Aston Villa beat Wigan and Nottingham Forest beat Reading), we're suddenly up to 9th or above and the gap is 3 points from said side. It all makes a difference.

Same as if we had beat Wolves at Christmas 2017, that would only have been 3 points but would have put us up a level and weakened their belief somewhat, doubts may have crept in- not just with us behind them but lots of sides with renewed hopes and quite a few playing on Monday with Wolves later in the week. LJ was right, that game could have opened it all up again!

Whereas on the flipside if we draw and sides around us get ideal results from their perspective, that will boost them and we'll be knocked back a bit, momentum stalled=less chance.

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It’s actually surprisingly within reach when you lay it out like that, isn’t it?

Put it this way - if we string together four wins in a row at some point, we just need to be fairly average for the rest of the time and we’ll be really close.

Of course, a four-game losing run always seems to be just around the corner with us too...

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4 minutes ago, Robbored said:

It’s one round of the Championship fixtures - should City struggle against Bolton and and get a point it won’t make a huge difference regardless of other results.

That said if City are on the fringe of the top six with 10 games remaining........

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

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1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

 They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

On the flipside, while we should be aiming at a convincing home win, they don't tend to get thrashed often in the main. Their current uncertainty may see a collapse though. Norwich had serious problems beating them, took a last minute winner before Christmas. Leeds only beat them 1-0 at their place i.e. at Bolton too.

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5 minutes ago, Red Army 75 said:

Who knows. But we have something to go for. Few weeks ago I personally thought the season was over . Low to mid table finish . But now game on 

Nobody has a crystal ball RA and not so long ago the anti LJ brigade were in full voice but have recently gone quiet........:cool2:

At the start of this campaign  I posted that I’d be happy with a better finish than last season with a possible push for the pray-offs with 10-15 games to go.

We’re well placed for achieving that.........:fingerscrossed:

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If the performances keep steadily improving like they are then who knows... maybe a couple of team above us will drop off and with some luck we could snag 6th! 

I believe achieving this would without doubt need some solid consistency, something LJ has had trouble with at times in the past. I'm aware how silly that sounds now we're currently 8 games unbeaten, but we've been in a somewhat similar situation previously and hit free fall.. It's like we have an on/off switch 

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6 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

I don’t think their 6-0 hammering is going to help us much. 

Often after a result like that, managers revert back to basics and their main focus will likely be to be tight at the back. 

I very much doubt we will lose on Saturday, but I don’t think that winning is going to be made easy after their last capitulation. 

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39 minutes ago, headhunter said:

I read recently that 73 points has been the average to finish 6th and therefore secure that last play off spot.

With 20 games to go and our current points total that 10-5-5 sequence would give us 73 points - can we do it?

It equates to 1.85 points per game which we have done more than once for an extended period under LJ's stewardship. 

Pick 5 games we might lose in the last 20 which leaves 15 we CANNOT lose. 

My 5 nil points are: Boro, Norwich, Sheffield Utd and Villa all away and Derby at home.

A big ask not to lose any other games!

Difficult to predict these as our away form is better than our home.

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6 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

They’ll come and park the bus as most struggling club do and it’s not always easy to break down a packed defence - remember Rotherham? 

Yep......City should beat them but you can never be sure that three points are in the bag.

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12 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

Jesus Christ man don't say that... you know very well what's gonna happen now ?

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2 minutes ago, Sturny said:

If the performances keep steadily improving like they are then who knows... maybe a couple of team above us will drop off and with some luck we could snag 6th! 

I believe achieving this would without doubt need some solid consistency, something LJ has had trouble with at times in the past. I'm aware how silly that sounds now we're currently 8 games unbeaten, but we've been in a somewhat similar situation previously and hit free fall.. It's like we have an on/off switch 

It's hard to predict these things but Middlesbrough look like they maybe running out of steam a bit.

2 wins and 3 draws in their last 8. Not especially great...

Derby 15 pts from 10 games, definitely a bit of a dip though should still be enough.

Nottingham Forest 1 win in 6. 3 losses as well.

Aston Villa 1 win in 6 (though only 1 loss too).

However, I'm not getting carried away at all. 1 game at a time still and no vast expectation of the playoff is my current mindset.

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6 minutes ago, Robbored said:

They’ll come and park the bus as most struggling club do and it’s not always easy to break down a packed defence - remember Rotherham? 

Yep......City should beat them but you can never be sure that three points are in the bag.

Before the sendings off Rotherham didn't look like parking the bus, they were on top. Wouldn't surprise me if the Bolton game was similar 

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48 minutes ago, headhunter said:

I read recently that 73 points has been the average to finish 6th and therefore secure that last play off spot.

With 20 games to go and our current points total that 10-5-5 sequence would give us 73 points - can we do it?

It equates to 1.85 points per game which we have done more than once for an extended period under LJ's stewardship. 

Pick 5 games we might lose in the last 20 which leaves 15 we CANNOT lose. 

My 5 nil points are: Boro, Norwich, Sheffield Utd and Villa all away and Derby at home.

A big ask not to lose any other games!

Please don't forget Preston North End away.. we almost certainly will lose that one

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1 minute ago, Sturny said:

Before the sendings off Rotherham didn't look like parking the bus, they were on top. Wouldn't surprise me if the Bolton game was similar 

Rotherham tried to play on the break but anyway that game has gone so no point debating it.

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2 minutes ago, Barry Sheene said:

Please don't forget Preston North End away.. we almost certainly will lose that one

Our record v them surely suggests yes but if we keep up our more counter attacking game plan on the road- we'll continue to get some unexpected results. Given Preston are quite counter attacking themselves, tactically our current approach could cause them issues.

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15 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

Mark Ashton doesn't think so either. On Twentymans show on Monday he said something along the lines of "we should be putting teams like Bolton to the sword"

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3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It's hard to predict these things but Middlesbrough look like they maybe running out of steam a bit.

2 wins and 3 draws in their last 8. Not especially great...

Derby 15 pts from 10 games, definitely a bit of a dip though should still be enough.

Nottingham Forest 1 win in 6. 3 losses as well.

Aston Villa 1 win in 6 (though only 1 loss too).

However, I'm not getting carried away at all. 1 game at a time still and no vast expectation of the playoff is my current mindset.

Very hard to predict indeed. You're right about Middlesbrough, reckon they're on a slow decline. Forest will pick up and Derby have the motivation to keep it up are my predictions  

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10 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Nobody has a crystal ball RA and not so long ago the anti LJ brigade were in full voice but have recently gone quiet........:cool2:

At the start of this campaign  I posted that I’d be happy with a better finish than last season with a possible push for the pray-offs with 10-15 games to go.

We’re well placed for achieving that.........:fingerscrossed:

I try not to get involved with the LJ debate anymore. I have changed my mind numerous times about Hokey Cokey. Just happy we’ve hit some championship consistency. I can live with that 

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9 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Often after a result like that, managers revert back to basics and their main focus will likely be to be tight at the back. 

I don't think there's any doubt they'll come and sit back. They haven't scored in four of their last five away games.

All I'm saying is if we have top six ambitions then it's time to start putting teams like this away comfortably. 

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1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I don't think there's any doubt they'll come and sit back. They haven't scored in four of their last five away games.

All I'm saying is if we have top six ambitions then it's time to start putting teams like this away comfortably. 

How much did Leeds and Norwich beat Bolton by in December?

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14 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We shouldn't be struggling against the likes of Bolton if we have top six ambitions.

They've won one of their last 16 league games and got trounced 6-0 at Hull in their last outing.

I am always worried about the "wounded animal", I have seen examples in the past when you could quite feasibly expect a side to roll over because of their situation but show some resilience for what ever reason. The one that sticks in my mind (probably because of their current position) is Bournemouth coming here at the end of the last century when there was talk of a winding up order against them that week. They beat us 0-1 with Ian Cox playing an absolute blinder. 
You are right, we should expect to beat Bolton, but I hope the players don't think all they have to do is turn up.

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Agree with KITR . We all know every game in the championship is brutal. But if they are to fulfill their aspirations. Then teams like Bolton at home need beating . Got some tough games coming up and we’ve slipped up at home to much already. As for the wounded animal scenario they put 5 past Walsall last week. Tough game 

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