ExiledAjax Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sturny said: I did, what did he say that was relevant? Most pertinently - that we have an agreed fee option to buy Da Silva in the summer. We would need to agree personal terms but the deal is done with Chelsea. Personally I suspect he'll join us permanently in the summer, especially if Kelly leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturny Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said: Most pertinently - that we have an agreed fee option to buy Da Silva in the summer. We would need to agree personal terms but the deal is done with Chelsea. Personally I suspect he'll join us permanently in the summer, especially if Kelly leaves. Okay thanks so that’s 1 out of the 2, my point remains about Kalas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Sturny said: Okay thanks so that’s 1 out of the 2, my point remains about Kalas It also sounded that they tried to have a similar agreement with Kalas, but nothing got agreed. Same with Palmer, LJ and Palmer himself hinted that they talked about the summer, but nothing agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sturny said: Okay thanks so that’s 1 out of the 2, my point remains about Kalas Chelsea have a habit of extending loans for certain fringe players who do well at a club. Kalas had 1 and a half seasons at Middlesbrough and 2 at Fulham. Piazon had 2 seasons at Fulham- maybe we will get another season of Kalas on loan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Sturny said: I did, what did he say that was relevant? That a fee is already agreed for Dasilva. So there’s a good chance he won’t be going back anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Most pertinently - that we have an agreed fee option to buy Da Silva in the summer. We would need to agree personal terms but the deal is done with Chelsea. Personally I suspect he'll join us permanently in the summer, especially if Kelly leaves. MA said as much on 20man recently but added “if he wants to stay of course”...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Next year for me is the big one. This season the Championship is incredibly competitive, and that's why even fewer points may see play offs achieved. There are a lot of clubs that need promotion this year or FFP is really going to bite them and hard - assuming of course it is enforced. Next season I think the Championship will be much weaker. The clubs battling relegation from the Prem don't look particularly strong, albeit they will have cash on the hip and be better placed than the likes of Stoke. But really Cardiff I wouldn't fancy to 'walk' this league, Fulham probably sans Mitrovic similar, Huddersfield/Burnley (expect Soton to survive), again competitive, but not stand out. Because we are FFP compliant - taking MA's words, if we can sneak the playoffs this year we would be quite attractive next year to new players. We shouldn't be FFP hamstrung, we will realistically have money to invest from player sales (I'd wager Kelly, Pack and maybe Smith off the wage bill) and more experience for our younger players. I know 'next year' is a bit of a Championship cliché, but I think that's the prime opportunity for us and I would like to see the club be a bit more ruthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 44 minutes ago, downendcity said: The only problem with looking at LJ's overall performance is his lack of consistency. The last 2 seasons can almost be measured in half season sequences and depending on which half season we have shown promotion, or near promotion form, or close to relegation form. As the Major points out, LJ also has an ability to confound current form , and fans' expectations, and particularly when faced with tough games and opposition. This season is an interesting one. It started with a degree of pessimism following the departures of Reid , Flint and Bryan but the start was far better than expected, only to the stall with 4 defeats seeming to be the herald of another LJ half season slump. With most fans predicting a dire December, LJ once again confounded those expectations with a decent run, albeit with not completely convincing performances, and has carried that into the new year. We do seem a bit more solid this season and less likely to "collapse" post Christmas, as happened last year. Few teams seem able to maintain extended runs at the moment, so it is not impossible that we could sneak into the play offs as LJ has a track record that shows he ( and his team) is capable of going on the sort of run necessary over half a season. Funnily enough, the biggest danger to our chances might well be not the tough games against our main rivals, but those against teams near the bottom of the table. As many others have commented, we seem to play better against teams that come at us, but struggle against those that play deep and defend - if we can get results in those games, then who knows what we can do? So can we do it, you haven't really answered the question, what is your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, pillred said: So can we do it, you haven't really answered the question, what is your opinion. I think we can. Now watch us lose to Bolton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merrick's Marvels Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, ReggyRed said: Wont be hard to replace people when we have just got promoted and about to play our first season in the prem That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meh Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Forgetting previous win ratios etc, when I first read the question and thought would we only lose 5 games out of 20 I was pessimistic but if slightly switched to do I think we can win 11 out of 20 games I think yes - feasible on current form and seemingly harder to break down. Then it is out of 9 other games can we get 2 points which seems more than likely. So 73 points seems an acceptable but challenging target. 12 wins and we can lose 8 and still be on 74 points !! So we need to win 3 of every 5 games !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Neo said: Forgetting previous win ratios etc, when I first read the question and thought would we only lose 5 games out of 20 I was pessimistic but if slightly switched to do I think we can win 11 out of 20 games I think yes - feasible on current form and seemingly harder to break down. Then it is out of 9 other games can we get 2 points which seems more than likely. So 73 points seems an acceptable but challenging target. 12 wins and we can lose 8 and still be on 74 points !! So we need to win 3 of every 5 games !! We have only won 3 in 5 in the league on one occasion this season (when we won 4 on the spin). Of course, win on Saturday, and that’ll be twice. Should 35 points be enough, then there are several ways to do it. 12 wins (8 defeats) 11 wins 2 draws (7 defeats) 10 wins 5 draws (5 defeats) 9 wins 8 draws (3 defeats) 8 wins 11 draws (1 defeat) if i thought we we were gonna get those points I reckon, based on current form, it would be the 9W 8D 3L bullet above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 57 minutes ago, Davefevs said: We have only won 3 in 5 in the league on one occasion this season (when we won 4 on the spin). Of course, win on Saturday, and that’ll be twice. Should 35 points be enough, then there are several ways to do it. 12 wins (8 defeats) 11 wins 2 draws (7 defeats) 10 wins 5 draws (5 defeats) 9 wins 8 draws (3 defeats) 8 wins 11 draws (1 defeat) if i thought we we were gonna get those points I reckon, based on current form, it would be the 9W 8D 3L bullet above. 3 in 5 is a 60% win rate. That would be a massive surge I form. You follow Experimental 361 as well don't you. Are you as annoyed at me that he seems to have stopped doing the graphic where he predicted where each team was most likely to finish? I thought it was excellent and it proved pretty good, never giving us much of a chance of relegation when we were down in the bottom 1/4 and then last season not really believing the hype when we were 2nd. I'd love to see what it though of us this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I too follow Experimental 3-6-1, and read the website. It had us with better underlying performances than results in 16/17 when we were in that long slump under LJ and that helped me believe we may stay up back then. This Tweet was very accurate as well. (Bolton eventually finished with 43). Have to say for 16/17 the overachievement/underachievement graphic in broad terms looked pretty accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grey Fox Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I think if we can solve the 10 problem, and hopefully Palmer is the answer we could do it, which isn't to say we will. Could be exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Mr Popodopolous Then look at the one up to 30 Dec. Only match missing is the away win at Stoke. What it shows is that we were actually underperforming despite being on a 7 match unbeaten run. However, our expected xG took a bit of a nose dive in the latter parts of 2018. We might find it a struggle to continue this run unless we improve our underlying performances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUSSEL85 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grey Fox said: I think if we can solve the 10 problem, and hopefully Palmer is the answer we could do it, which isn't to say we will. Could be exciting I still think we are a "fox in the box" light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taz Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 We can do it yes, but we generally do well in one half of the season, and not so well in the other (other than the relegation season, that was just a disaster throughout!) Also under Johnson, you never know if another run, whether it be a winning or losing one, is just around the corner. Last January may as well not have happened for us, but with the signing of Palmer, and the reported interest in other midfielders, at least we are trying to address the obvious shortfalls within the squad. Pulling these transfers off is another thing though. I remember the season Bolton last went down, they came to us in a mess, and left with a 6-0 hiding. I don't think it will happen again, but we need to come out and go at them from the start - get a goal and they'll get twitchy. Back to the original question - so far this season, we've not been great, definitely not pretty, but we are where we are. Last season we ran out of steam, and didnt have the strength in depth to replace players when it mattered. Perhaps our start to the season means that the second half will be a bit more like last year (pre-Christmas), as we'll be able to sustain it more. We definitely look better at the back this year, and I think we would be able to cope better when teams hit us on the counter attack, if we were to play "more expressively". The fact remains though - we arent the only club who could pull together the right run of results and get up towards that points target. The Championship is one of the more open and competitive leagues, and usually come April there are still quite a few teams in with a realistic chance of making the playoffs. I've always thought that we were too good to go down this year, despite what others may have thought before the season started. We just need to get 2 or 3 key players in to push us onto that next level, and if we can do that without Johnson tinkering around too much, then I think we may just scrape the playoffs. If we do, players like Kalas, Da Silva, and even Palmer (providing his Huddersfield form is repeated) will suddenly become very realistic signings for next season. We may have agreed a fee with Chelsea for Da Silva, but he'll still need to want to come here. Kalas I feel will only be likely if we are close to the playoffs, or even if we did get promoted. So many players also need to hit a good run of form. Fammy, for all of his critics, doesn't have a bad record for us. If he hits form, along with Brownhill, who at the moment is playing some great football, will be 2 of our key men. If the recruitment is right, and the style of play is sorted, then I think we will make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 @ExiledAjax Perhaps I'm misinterpreting but underachieving in what sense? in the sense that our performances despite yielding 7 unbeaten should have yielded better margins or vice versa? I'd say if that's the case, it's a positive as we might start doing even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: @ExiledAjax Perhaps I'm misinterpreting but underachieving in what sense? in the sense that our performances despite yielding 7 unbeaten should have yielded better margins or vice versa? I'd say if that's the case, it's a positive as we might start getting more of what we deserve/what the underlying performances indicate. Yes you're correct. So even though we were unbeaten, our performances suggested that over that period our goal difference should have been higher. Essentially a couple of those draws should have been wins. But, there's a caveat. Whilst you could say that we should be expecting to see better margins in the near future - this would only be a reasonable conclusion if the red line was still at the +0.25 point. It isn't, which suggests that our performances have been deteriorating. People have noticed this - see the Brentford and Rotherham match threads. On those charts the red line is your "expected goal difference" ie the goal difference you'd have if results went the way of your performance based stats. The blue line is what you actually got. As football is ridiculously hard to statistically analyse these rarely match perfectly. Over Nov/Dec last year our redline was coming back towards zero. It had been as high as +.25 goals per game. In the same games our actual gd was also coming back towards zero, from a low of -0.5. It is all done on a ten game rolling average so on 30 Dec it counted our 7 game unbeaten run plus the three preceding defeats. These were Reading which we should have won, Preston I can't recall, and Leeds where we probably deserved to lose. I know lots of people hate this kind of stuff but over a long period it does often prove a good indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Could we do it? Yes. Will we? I highly doubt it, but wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said: Could we do it? Yes. Will we? I highly doubt it, but wouldn't rule it out. Just sit on the fence then.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Robbored said: Just sit on the fence then.................. I brought a cushion so I won't get splinters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Obviously we can do it , I seriously doubt we will. Now here is where having a streaky manager could be beneficial , if LJ were to get lucky and have the reverse January from last year then who knows. I don't know anything about the new lad, but we were very short in that area, shame Williams wasn't fit as those 2 plus the mysterious striker could have been just the boost we need. Thing is, who knows how any new boys will go, we hope for the best and at least any new additions are coming into a side in form, but last year tells us not to get our hopes too high. One thing, and it doesn't matter who we bring in , we have to start to win home games or it will be over sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
22A Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 hours ago, headhunter said: I read recently that 73 points has been the average to finish 6th and therefore secure that last play off spot. Not quite, we may need a few more. The Championship 2016 - 6th placed team Sheff W amassed 74 pts. 2017 - 6th placed Fulham amassed 80 pts. Last year Derby - 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TammyAB Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 This may sound boring but I'm not even going to worry about the league table until/if things start opening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendyredredrobin Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Statistical predictions are a bit of a waste of time and so many games go against all expectations. You can't really look much further forward than the next game, except for considering resting players when some big ones are coming up. We have to go into every game believing that we can win it and hopefully creep closer and closer to a top 6 position using an appropriate formation and tactical setup for each particular game. I'm sure that this is the way LJ looks at it. We do have a 50/50 chance of reaching the play off's in my view, but there will be some very good teams up there when it comes to the crunch and I don't think we are anywhere near ready for the Prem yet TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 hours ago, Barry Sheene said: Please don't forget Preston North End away.. we almost certainly will lose that one We will beat them one day. It's been nearly a decade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said: We will beat them one day. It's been nearly a decade! Another "first" to go with all the others this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Think we can do it. Our team is getting better and better, the defence is strong and with the new guy and a good striker in we can find another dimension in our way to play. LJ has been here now for a while and knows what it needs to be top six. Walsh coming back, Adelakunde, Eliasson, Watkins. We have many options in defence and attacking. Wright, Pisano, Dasilva, Kelly. Think we have 40-60 to reach top six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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