Cowshed Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Bolton tend to willingly concede the ball as part of their gameplan, even at home so I wouldn't get wildly excited about it all in that respect. However it was good to see and continued improvement. We generally have not been, though we have been improving of late in this respect, a possession heavy side this season. A few games where we have shone with the ball, but partly due to opposition tactics as well and partly due to us, but we average around 52% I reckon over the season. Finisher? Maybe- Would personally put Eliasson in for Weimann and Palmer for Paterson in the current configuration, see how that goes harsh on Paterson though it maybe. @Cowshed That is one interpretation and maybe the right one. Another one maybe that it's high in real terms, higher than the average, higher I dare say than any side in this division in say a goals or Shots on target to woodwork ratiom higher than the mean and at some point it will turn and fall into line a bit with expected patterns. That's my hope anyway. Its the interpretation the FA and one many experts use … I was in the you make your own luck camp till it was highlighted to me you can't make luck. As you will be aware there are anomalies and these frequently even out over measured periods. Short term fine = Positive we are getting close. Long term negative not its your not unlucky, we are crap at shooting, sharpen up, practice more, get somebody better because nobody should miss that often and that's what it is missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Cowshed said: Its the interpretation the FA and one many experts use … I was in the you make your own luck camp till it was highlighted to me you can't make luck. As you will be aware there are anomalies and these frequently even out over measured periods. Short term fine = Positive we are getting close. Long term negative not its your not unlucky, we are crap at shooting, sharpen up, practice more, get somebody better because nobody should miss that often and that's what it is missing. The difference between success and failure at all levels of professional sport is usually not huge, but the effect an individual scorer can have is disproportionate. How will Spurs cope without Kane for a month? Probably ok, but they will definitely be weakened. Why are Huddersfield looking like relegation fodder? Partly their defence but mostly because their strikers are poor and they can't score. At Championship level, we know that a good team can get ahead with a top striker. Dwight Gayle, Andre Gray, Callum Wilson all come to mind as top-scoring forwards, who have helped their team to promotion, and arguably made the difference. Making chances is obviously important, but if your forwards can't consistently shoot straight and accurately, by which I mean at least getting it on target, then there is still a problem. Practice can definitely help, witness international teams spending time in training on penalties. Given our record of hitting the woodwork this season, I would suggest we still need more practice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I lost faith in possession stats when I learned that they're just a % of passes made. You could play loads of one touch and skew the 'possession' weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 13/01/2019 at 22:56, joenaldo said: If get in forests face and attack the makeshift defence they will have i will be feeling good. Looking at the table we could easily slip to 12th if we lose so need a few more good results to be in the mix while others falter (mainly hoping Villa :laugh:) FYI - We can't slip to 12th. Villa play Hull so one of those two sides is unable to overtake us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 hours ago, mozo said: I lost faith in possession stats when I learned that they're just a % of passes made. You could play loads of one touch and skew the 'possession' weighting. Same with most of the stats. Shots, Shots on Target, etc, all need context. I think we had 5 shots on target vs Bolton’s 4 on Saturday, but I can only remember 2 of them....1) the goal and 2) Ameobi’s tame long-range dribbler. 5v4 was not a reflection of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelts Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 12/01/2019 at 23:01, boatman said: For me 2 up front Is a must at home. i have an unhealthy hatred of 1 up front at home. He’s far too cagey at home and pays too much attention to the opposition thinking they’re Barca when we is only playing Bolton ffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Am A Cider Drinker Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Same with most of the stats. Shots, Shots on Target, etc, all need context. I think we had 5 shots on target vs Bolton’s 4 on Saturday, but I can only remember 2 of them....1) the goal and 2) Ameobi’s tame long-range dribbler. 5v4 was not a reflection of the game. Also shots/shots on target are not a good stat for working out chances created. For example there were at least 3 times on Saturday where the ball was put across the Bolton 6 yard box and we came within inches of scoring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc01 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 42 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Same with most of the stats. Shots, Shots on Target, etc, all need context. I think we had 5 shots on target vs Bolton’s 4 on Saturday, but I can only remember 2 of them....1) the goal and 2) Ameobi’s tame long-range dribbler. 5v4 was not a reflection of the game. The only other "attempt on goal" I can remember from Bolton was in the second half where Maenppa caught a lobbed ball over his head in front of goal. It was no danger at all but counted as an "on target effort". The stats, whilst a guide, are often meaningless without context imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bcfc01 said: The only other "attempt on goal" I can remember from Bolton was in the second half where Maenppa caught a lobbed ball over his head in front of goal. It was no danger at all but counted as an "on target effort". The stats, whilst a guide, are often meaningless without context imo. That’s right, it was like a sliced drop shot from 25 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shelton’s Love Gravy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 13/01/2019 at 16:15, REDOXO said: I agree. My fingers are crossed this might be the case. If we can maintain this form then who knows where we could be by EO April going into the last match. Rumors about big bids for Brownhill are concerning, but we will see! Exactly....It was attack against defense and said as much at the time....Someone is going to get a right d1cking soon! NF have real problems for next week, either way it is coming! Weimann had an excellent game, not sure why you say that? AND...This is the issue. LJ said as much this week. We will not pay the money that clubs are asking for forwards. Thus we will need to manufacture one Ala Bobby Reid. This has a huge influence on how we play...Stay solid and snatch the win....I think we have more 1-0s than any other team, it did Arsenal no harm! And our promotion side of 1975-76 used to win a lot of games 1-0 if I correctly recall. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke4d89 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Realism guys room for improvement... Do you really expect 4-5-0 score lines?? Unbeaten in 9 still this topic clearly with negative critical undertones! this topic is just a way of leaving scope for criticism and "we seen this coming" comments when we eventually lose which will happen hopefully no time soon. We are a competitive team in a strong league full of massive clubs, what some ofyou expect I will never comprehend untill it happens. World class football? This is Bristol City and how were going at the moment play offs is on the cards as I predicted 2 months ago. Though I expect we could go up and you would still call for this managers head after one month next year. The agenda will never die for the haters. I'm convinced if it was up to some of you we would still be in the old division 2 watching Danny Wilson team full of underachieving alcoholics! The Johnsons in for as long as they like IMO Enjoy the ride COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Dicks' Barmy Army Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, luke4d89 said: Realism guys room for improvement... Do you really expect 4-5-0 score lines?? Unbeaten in 9 still this topic clearly with negative critical undertones! this topic is just a way of leaving scope for criticism and "we seen this coming" comments when we eventually lose which will happen hopefully no time soon. We are a competitive team in a strong league full of massive clubs, what some ofyou expect I will never comprehend untill it happens. World class football? This is Bristol City and how were going at the moment play offs is on the cards as I predicted 2 months ago. Though I expect we could go up and you would still call for this managers head after one month next year. The agenda will never die for the haters. I'm convinced if it was up to some of you we would still be in the old division 2 watching Danny Wilson team full of underachieving alcoholics! The Johnsons in for as long as they like IMO Enjoy the ride COYR Absolute nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke4d89 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHILINFRANCE Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 hours ago, Davefevs said: Same with most of the stats. Shots, Shots on Target, etc, all need context. I think we had 5 shots on target vs Bolton’s 4 on Saturday, but I can only remember 2 of them....1) the goal and 2) Ameobi’s tame long-range dribbler. 5v4 was not a reflection of the game. Out of interest, because you are the stats man, does a header, e.g. KP's winner, count as a shot on target? 6 hours ago, Nicky Morgan's Organ said: And our promotion side of 1975-76 used to win a lot of games 1-0 if I correctly recall. Just saying... So did the 2008 play-off final side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said: Out of interest, because you are the stats man, does a header, e.g. KP's winner, count as a shot on target? So did the 2008 play-off final side. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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