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Contenders....rrready!


Silvio Dante

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Now we’re in the playoff zone, it’s time for a bit of analysis of the league table. We’ve finally got a small gap to the conjested mid-table, and with 16 games left for most (17 for some), then we can probably start to get a steer as to where the contenders for the playoffs end.

In the last five years, points needed for the playoffs range from 72-80. With the number of teams who can beat each other, my guess is that this season a figure of 75 will be enough. From our current position, that would mean we need 28 points from 17 games (1.64ppg or in old money, if we win 8 games and draw 4, we’re likely to get there). It might even be as low as 72 needed again.

Anyone below us will need a 50% win rate. Unlikely, but not impossible. So let’s say 1.75ppg is what teams may be able to get, bearing in mind it’d be an uplift on what they’d achieved thus far. For 16 games, that means even if a team is in better form than they have been to date, they’re looking at another roughly 28-30 points.

If we say the target is 72 (so go low side), even that means only as low as 12th are currently in with a realistic but difficult shot. Today has probably finished off Stoke and Swansea when you consider they’ve played an extra game. We can probably finish Blackburn next week.

So, based on history, 50% of the table are out of it. And if we win 9 of 17 games, based on precedent, we’d get there.

Ready for it...?

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Should we reach the play offs I can't see there would be any fear of facing any team.

No doubt we would be the outsiders with the bookies whoever finishes 3rd to 6th. Our away form is promotion standard.

Things can soon go tits up as we know, but probably like many was more concerned about the bottom of the league two months ago. But fair play to Johnson he never blinked had faith in himself and the squad.

Have to say after todays near complete performance we look like a side that is capable of a result anywhere.

The depth of the squad now has to be the strongest in my lifetime. So after voting Jono out in a poll on here what 3 months ago?  I doff my cap to the man.

And should we loose the next 8 games would I call for his head?  No. Not that he would give a shit but he has earned my total respect.

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I like Silvio's comment about finishing off a couple of teams. It really does seem that we've put a lot of teams around us to the sword in what have been almost 6 pointers.  If we do the same to Blackburn I really won't be able to contain my optimism!

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Exciting times indeed. Putting this run together, building momentum and confidence heading towards the run in is massive. This team seem to be getting better all the time, with strength throughout the squad. Feels great doesn't it!!! 

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17 minutes ago, Gakoe said:

Exciting times indeed. Putting this run together, building momentum and confidence heading towards the run in is massive. This team seem to be getting better all the time, with strength throughout the squad. Feels great doesn't it!!! 

I think we may hit a ceiling this time around 

but last season at this stage we were visibly like a rapidly deflating balloon 

Have to say , atm , game by Game we appear to be increasingly inflated

Momentum massive in sport

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Many games still to play but the squad is strong and we play with confidence. Our run is nearly unbelievebly, the players work hard at every place on the pitch and that gets results. We have many players who can score, that is one reason that we are top six at the moment. The defence is solid as a rock and we can be top six when the season comes to an end. This season is really exciting and I love it. Derby is the team to be before in the table I think.

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As always, it will be how we react to the defeat that will inevitably come and I think we are better prepared for it when it does.

I think I`d rather it was one where we`re robbed like a dodgy last minute penalty at Norwich or something - a bit like Swindon away in the promotion season where the injustice of it all made us stronger.

LJ appears to have learned massively from the winless runs of the last two seasons and, while it means we are setting up a bit more defensively (it helps that we have the superb defence that we currently have and makes it easy to do) I do not believe a run of any more than 2-3 defeats is likely this season. If that is the case, we will be there or thereabouts IMO.

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