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The run in (Merged)


BessexRED

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1 minute ago, 29AR said:

 I think though the Championship usually - more than most - gets topsy turvy in the end where with 10 games to go the bottom teams seem to go on unspeakable runs. 

Quite a few poor or hamstrung sides down the bottom this year though- some will pick up shocks results and Rotherham may regain some home form they had earlier in the season but I'd suggest it will be pretty low benchmark to survive this year...

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quite a few poor or hamstrung sides down the bottom this year though- some will pick up shocks results and Rotherham may regain some home form they had earlier in the season but I'd suggest it will be pretty low benchmark to survive this year...

Get in; I'm going to the offy tonight.... Survival party. 

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Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61
60......Norwich
59
58.....Leeds
57
56
55.....Sheffield United
54 - Highest Points Still RelegatedWest Brom
53.....Bristol City
52
51.....Middlesbrough
50....., Derby
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47
46.....Birmingham, Forest
45.....
44.....Villa, Swansea,Hull
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived....., Blackburn
42
41
40.....Preston,Sheffield Wednesday
39.....QPR, 
38.....Stoke
37.....Brentford
36
35
34
33.....Wigan
32
31...Millwall
30.....
29
28...Rotherham
27.....
26.....Reading, Bolton
25
24
23.....
22
21
20
19
18.....Ipswich
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation
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Something bothers me about the Average Needed For Champions being the same as the Highest 2nd Place Points Total.  This doesn't make sense in my head. 

What you have there is the Average Champion Total.

I think the actual points needed to be Champion would be much lower and nearer the Average Total for 2nd but a bit higher.

Am I making any sense?

Assuming the points needed for 1st was 1 point more than 2nd (only been won once by goal difference in 1990) the average points needed for Champion is 87.3 (call it 88).

The same goes for 2nd (but I can't be arsed to work it out).

I'll get my coat.

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2 hours ago, CityCity said:

 

Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61
60......Norwich
59
58.....Leeds
57
56
55.....Sheffield United
54 - Highest Points Still RelegatedWest Brom
53.....Bristol City
52
51.....Middlesbrough
50....., Derby
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47
46.....Birmingham, Forest
45.....
44.....Villa, Swansea,Hull
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived....., Blackburn
42
41
40.....Preston,Sheffield Wednesday
39.....QPR, 
38.....Stoke
37.....Brentford
36
35
34
33.....Wigan
32
31...Millwall
30.....
29
28...Rotherham
27.....
26.....Reading, Bolton
25
24
23.....
22
21
20
19
18.....Ipswich
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation

Sooooo essentially what you're saying is.... We're still not technically safe. Sooner we get to that 55 point mark the better... ??

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38 minutes ago, OnCider said:

Something bothers me about the Average Needed For Champions being the same as the Highest 2nd Place Points Total.  This doesn't make sense in my head. 

What you have there is the Average Champion Total.

I think the actual points needed to be Champion would be much lower and nearer the Average Total for 2nd but a bit higher.

Am I making any sense?

Assuming the points needed for 1st was 1 point more than 2nd (only been won once by goal difference in 1990) the average points needed for Champion is 87.3 (call it 88).

The same goes for 2nd (but I can't be arsed to work it out).

I'll get my coat.

Took me a second to get what you were saying but you are completely right. Think it's just an issue with wording, as there is 'average for survival/top half' etc. the wording has been carried over.

I would assume that it is actually representing the average points total by each team to have won the championship (seems to work with the highest and lowest point totals).

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On 11/02/2019 at 13:19, 29AR said:

I think though the Championship usually - more than most - gets topsy turvy in the end where with 10 games to go the bottom teams seem to go on unspeakable runs. 

Is it possible that the removal of the emergency loan option has made it more difficult for those struggling sides to bring a few “gambles” in during Feb / March lines they used to?

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9 hours ago, OnCider said:

Something bothers me about the Average Needed For Champions being the same as the Highest 2nd Place Points Total.  This doesn't make sense in my head. 

What you have there is the Average Champion Total.

I think the actual points needed to be Champion would be much lower and nearer the Average Total for 2nd but a bit higher.

Am I making any sense?

Assuming the points needed for 1st was 1 point more than 2nd (only been won once by goal difference in 1990) the average points needed for Champion is 87.3 (call it 88).

The same goes for 2nd (but I can't be arsed to work it out).

I'll get my coat.

Had to give my brain a wobble on this one a little.

Kind of agree, but saying it is one more point than whoever finishes second will not always work, as they take points off each other. It gets lost in the season, but say excluding all other results, Team A are second behind Team B on goal difference bar one result between them. To be Champions, they would have had to win that game and the title by three points compared to second place. Even a team that wins the title by a stackful, if you say the real number of points they needed was much less, those points would have had to go somewhere else, which could affect the other numbers.

I think.

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Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61......Leeds
60......Norwich
59
58......Sheffield United
57
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still RelegatedWest Brom
53.......Bristol City
52
51........Middlesbrough,Derby
50
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47
46.......Birmingham, Forest
45
44........Villa, Swansea,Hull
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Blackburn, Preston
42
41
40......Sheffield Wednesday, Brentford
39......QPR, Stoke
38
37
36
35
34.....Wigan
33
32
31.....Millwall
30
29......Reading
28......Rotherham
27
26......Bolton
25
24
23
22
21
20
19......Ipswich
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation
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12 hours ago, cityexile said:

Had to give my brain a wobble on this one a little.

Kind of agree, but saying it is one more point than whoever finishes second will not always work, as they take points off each other. It gets lost in the season, but say excluding all other results, Team A are second behind Team B on goal difference bar one result between them. To be Champions, they would have had to win that game and the title by three points compared to second place. Even a team that wins the title by a stackful, if you say the real number of points they needed was much less, those points would have had to go somewhere else, which could affect the other numbers.

I think.

Yeah you're right.  I hadn't thought of that.  I hate stats.

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Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63....Norwich
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61......Leeds, Sheffield United
60
59
58
57....West Brom
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still Relegated Middlesbrough
53.......Bristol City
52
51........Derby
50
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47....Forest
46.......Birmingham, 
45
44........Villa, Swansea,Hull, Preston
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Blackburn
42
41....Sheffield Wednesday
40......Brentford, Stoke
39......QPR
38
37
36
35
34.....Wigan
33
32
31.....Millwall
30
29......Reading, Rotherham
28
27
26......Bolton
25
24
23
22
21
20......Ipswich
19
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation
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Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63....Norwich(33)
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61......Leeds(32), Sheffield United(33)
60.....West Brom(33)
59
58
57
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still Relegated Middlesbrough(32)
53.......Bristol City(31)
52
51........Derby(32)
50
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47.......Forest(33)
46.......Birmingham(32) 
45
44........Villa(33), Swansea(32),Hull(32), Preston(33)
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Blackburn(33)
42
41....Sheffield Wednesday(32)
40......Brentford(31), Stoke(33)
39......QPR(32)
38
37
36
35
34.....Wigan(32),Millwall(32)
33
32
31
30
29......Reading(33), Rotherham(33)
28
27
26......Bolton(33)
25
24
23
22
21
20......Ipswich(33)
19
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation
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1 hour ago, CityCity said:

Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66
65
64
63....Norwich(33)
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61......Leeds(32), Sheffield United(33)
60.....West Brom(33)
59
58
57
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still Relegated Middlesbrough(32)
53.......Bristol City(31)
52
51........Derby(32)
50
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47.......Forest(33)
46.......Birmingham(32) 
45
44........Villa(33), Swansea(32),Hull(32), Preston(33)
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Blackburn(33)
42
41....Sheffield Wednesday(32)
40......Brentford(31), Stoke(33)
39......QPR(32)
38
37
36
35
34.....Wigan(32),Millwall(32)
33
32
31
30
29......Reading(33), Rotherham(33)
28
27
26......Bolton(33)
25
24
23
22
21
20......Ipswich(33)
19
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation

Stop updating it after single fixtures, do it at the end of a gameweek. People stop reading it with interest if you’re posting it every day.

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So using 74 points as the play-off standard...

If Birmingham in 9th manage 2 points per game (promotion form), they would just make the 74 points. 

Apply the same form to Forest in 8th and they finish just short on 73 points.

So both Forest and Brum need serious form to have a chance of typical play-off totals.

Derby need 1.6 points per game for the 74, which is tricky on their current form. Plus we can impact that at Ashton Gate. 

We need 1.4 points per game which is fairly mid-table form. Even if we lose to Norwich,  we would need only 1.5 points per game. 

Our superior goal difference, although marginal, could act as an extra point over Derby.

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13 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Fifth and sixth spot are between us, boro and Derby, anything better its too early to tell. Of the three I honestly bellieve that we are the better team.

Boro have a more experiences squad and a more experienced manager. Their manager's track record indicates that they are unlikely to give much away and it is less likely that they will fall away than Derby. However, there will be a lot of pressure on 'Boro, as I think I'm right in saying they lose parachute payments this season. They have already sold players, and failing again could see them having to sell more players to balance the books, making promotion next season even tougher.

Derby have a  more experienced squad but a vastly less experienced manager - that is, he is hugely experienced as a player, but not as a manager. Their form seems to have suffered/disappeared over the last 2-3 months and their fans are not happy with the way things are going currently, and some already feel they have blown their chances. Has Frank Lampard got the ability to lift and re-group his players for the run in? He does not appear to have been able to do so since the turn of the year, in a way reminiscent  of the slumps in form we saw under LJ in two previous seasons, and the pressure on Lampard & Derby will be huge.

We have a relatively young squad and manager ( head coach)  many of whom have experienced massive highs and massive lows in the last 2-3 seasons. As a result of those experiences, the team is now showing a resilience, togetherness and spirit that could well be the difference between them and one, or both, of Boro and Derby making the play offs. The biggest difference this season is our defensive strength and solidity, which is the reason I don't think we will fade/collapse over the remainder of the season (  hope I haven't jinxed our chances!!) 

I think the crucial thing will be  maintaining our momentum. Not that I expect us to keep winning every game, or to maintain the unbeaten run, but to keep the points ticking over. As another poster suggested we need to maintain an average of 1.5 points per game to hit 74 points, so a win and loss ever 2 games would do the job, which means losing at, say Norwich would not be a disaster in itself.

The Major may well be able to afford to retire to the Maldives with sales of his SBO over the next couple of months, so strap yourselves in for what I'm sure will be a bumpy and exciting ride!

P.S. Mrs Downend saw me type that last sentence and thought I was emailing her, so is whipping off her support tights and putting her teeth in to soak in anticipation!

 

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16 hours ago, downendcity said:

Boro have a more experiences squad and a more experienced manager. Their manager's track record indicates that they are unlikely to give much away and it is less likely that they will fall away than Derby. However, there will be a lot of pressure on 'Boro, as I think I'm right in saying they lose parachute payments this season. They have already sold players, and failing again could see them having to sell more players to balance the books, making promotion next season even tougher.

Derby have a  more experienced squad but a vastly less experienced manager - that is, he is hugely experienced as a player, but not as a manager. Their form seems to have suffered/disappeared over the last 2-3 months and their fans are not happy with the way things are going currently, and some already feel they have blown their chances. Has Frank Lampard got the ability to lift and re-group his players for the run in? He does not appear to have been able to do so since the turn of the year, in a way reminiscent  of the slumps in form we saw under LJ in two previous seasons, and the pressure on Lampard & Derby will be huge.

We have a relatively young squad and manager ( head coach)  many of whom have experienced massive highs and massive lows in the last 2-3 seasons. As a result of those experiences, the team is now showing a resilience, togetherness and spirit that could well be the difference between them and one, or both, of Boro and Derby making the play offs. The biggest difference this season is our defensive strength and solidity, which is the reason I don't think we will fade/collapse over the remainder of the season (  hope I haven't jinxed our chances!!) 

I think the crucial thing will be  maintaining our momentum. Not that I expect us to keep winning every game, or to maintain the unbeaten run, but to keep the points ticking over. As another poster suggested we need to maintain an average of 1.5 points per game to hit 74 points, so a win and loss ever 2 games would do the job, which means losing at, say Norwich would not be a disaster in itself.

The Major may well be able to afford to retire to the Maldives with sales of his SBO over the next couple of months, so strap yourselves in for what I'm sure will be a bumpy and exciting ride!

P.S. Mrs Downend saw me type that last sentence and thought I was emailing her, so is whipping off her support tights and putting her teeth in to soak in anticipation!

 

Agree with all of that, and partically excited at the thought of the support tights........

I think boro will , as a Pulis team, draw too many of their remaining matches, whilst Derby are remarkably like us last year, there form has been poor for some time now, and i could see them sinking to mid table.

As to City, clearly we miss a 20 goal a season striker, but we do have a squad with depth and also , unlike Derby and boro the ability to change systems quickly when plan A isn't working.

Anyway, back to the support tights, do they do them in a fishnet style ?

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22 hours ago, BessexRED said:

Stop updating it after single fixtures, do it at the end of a gameweek. People stop reading it with interest if you’re posting it every day.

Sorry! I didn't realise you wrote the forum rules and people were required to read with interest.

I'll make sure i listen to your wise words moving forward

:boxing:

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https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/championship-predicted-final-table-title-2565906

The predicted Championship table

Norwich City 92

West Brom 87

Sheffield United 84

Leeds United 83

Middlesbrough 81

Bristol City 76

Derby County 74

Nottingham Forest 73

Birmingham City 67

Swansea City 65

Hull City 64

Brentford 63

READ MORE

 

Blackburn Rovers 62

Preston 61

Aston Villa 60

Sheffield Wednesday 59

Stoke City 55

QPR 52

Wigan Athletic 51

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Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66.....Norwich(34)
65
64....Leeds(33), Sheffield United(34)
63
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61
60.....West Brom(34)
59
58
57....Middlesbrough(33)
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still Relegated 
53.......Bristol City(32)
52
51........Derby(33)
50........Forest(34)
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47.......Birmingham(33) ,Preston(34)
46
45.......Villa(34)
44........ Swansea(33),Hull(33), Blackburn(34), Sheffield Wednesday(33)
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Brentford(32)
42
41.... Stoke(34)
40
39......QPR(33)
38
37
36
35.....Wigan(33)
34.....Millwall(33)
33
32
31
30.....Reading(34), Rotherham(34)
29
28
27
26......Bolton(33)
25
24
23
22
21.....Ipswich(33)
20
19
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation
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4 hours ago, CityCity said:

Updated :city:

106 - Highest Champions Points Total

105

104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Average Needed for Champions Highest 2nd Place Points Total
92
91
90
89 - Highest 3rd Place Points Total
88
87 - Average Needed For 2nd
86
85
84
83
82
81 - Lowest Champions Points Total
80
79 - Lowest 2nd Place Total
78 - Highest 7th Place Points Total
77
76
75
74 - Average Needed for Play-Offs
73
72
71
70
69
68 - Lowest Play-off Position Total
67
66.....Norwich(34)
65
64....Leeds(33), Sheffield United(34)
63
62 - Average Needed for Top Half
61
60.....West Brom(34)
59
58
57....Middlesbrough(33)
56
55
54 - Highest Points Still Relegated 
53.......Bristol City(32)
52
51........Derby(33)
50........Forest(34)
49 - Average Needed for Survival
48
47.......Birmingham(33) ,Preston(34)
46
45.......Villa(34)
44........ Swansea(33),Hull(33), Blackburn(34), Sheffield Wednesday(33)
43 - Lowest Points Total Survived.....Brentford(32)
42
41.... Stoke(34)
40
39......QPR(33)
38
37
36
35.....Wigan(33)
34.....Millwall(33)
33
32
31
30.....Reading(34), Rotherham(34)
29
28
27
26......Bolton(33)
25
24
23
22
21.....Ipswich(33)
20
19
18
 
Key:
Blue - Champions
Green - 2nd Place
Purple - Playoffs
Orange - Top Half
Red - Relegation

Can you update this live tonight....just want to see @BessexRED‘s rage ?

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