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The run in (Merged)


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4 hours ago, Undy English said:

I honestly don't think Derby will challenge us - after last night's shock loss they will drop off.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule them out given they play Bolton at home on Saturday so could quite conceivably be back to within 2 or 3 points of us with 5 games still to play. Their run-in is pretty decent on paper too. That said they've been in poor form for a couple of months now, not winning enough games so it is possible that their season may just fizzle out.

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45 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I wouldn't be so quick to rule them out given they play Bolton at home on Saturday so could quite conceivably be back to within 2 or 3 points of us with 5 games still to play. Their run-in is pretty decent on paper too. That said they've been in poor form for a couple of months now, not winning enough games so it is possible that their season may just fizzle out.

Like every season.

:yes:

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6 hours ago, chowie said:

2 Wins and 2 Draws could well be enough now. Which would be 73 points, that could still get us 6th with remaining form like the below:

 

Aston Villa - W3 D2 L1 = 74pts

City - W2 D2 L2 = 73pts

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Derby - W3 D3 L0 = 72pts

Middlesbrough - W3 D2 L0 = 72pts

PNE - W3 D2 L0 = 68pts

Forest - W3 D1 L1 = 67pts

Sheff Wed - W2 D1 L2 = 66pts

 

Getting a point v Derby would be crucial.

 

Well you're giving Derby and Boro 2pts per game there which is promotion form in normal circumstances. Surely they both have another defeat in them?

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1 hour ago, mozo said:

Well you're giving Derby and Boro 2pts per game there which is promotion form in normal circumstances. Surely they both have another defeat in them?

Exactly, was just highlighting decent form from others and not so great from us could still return us a Playoff place.

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16 hours ago, chowie said:

Exactly, was just highlighting decent form from others and not so great from us could still return us a Playoff place.

Yeah it was a good post. And I guess we have to accept that if either Derby or Boro can finish the season with promotion form, they will deserve a play off spot. 

My concern is that based on Saturdays fixtures you would expect Derby to close the gap on us, but who ruddy knows this season?!

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I thought it would be a good time to revisit how the Championship sides are doing.  Again starting at the bottom…

 

24th – Ipswich (27 points, 1 game less, max possible points 42) – Doomed. 4 wins all season tells its own story.  While they have some fight they have completely lacked any quality. The last time Ipswich were in the 3rd tier was 1956-7 so it will be a real culture shock for them.

23rd – Bolton (32 points, 1 game less, max possible points 47) – Despite the odd surprise win it would be a major shock if Bolton didn’t go down. Their off the field problems continue and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they end up in administration, which would mean starting with a points deduction in League One.

22nd – Rotherham (39 points, 1 game less, max possible points 54) – They have seen a slight improvement in form but are still in the mire due to the fact Reading have also improved. Their biggest problem is their terrible defence, which has now conceded 70 goals (the division’s worst)

21st – Wigan (41 points, 1 game less, max possible points 56) – Started the season strongly before falling away.  They’ve now been dragged into the relegation fight.  A late equaliser against us, only gave them their 7th point away from home

20th – Reading (41 points, 1 game less, max possible points 56) – Not out of trouble yet but have battled hard from a poor position.  17 points from their last 12 games gives them a good chance of staying up.  They should still be doing a lot better.

19th – Millwall (41 points, max possible points 59) – Had a terrible start but have clawed their way out of it a bit.  Their FA cup run seems to have hindered rather than helped them.   Their next 2 home fixtures are against Brentford and Stoke and they need to win at least one of them.

18th - QPR (45 points, 1 game less, max possible points 60) – A topsy-turvy season. 4 defeats in a row, followed by a run to the edge of the playoffs, before a disastrous run saw McClaren sacked.  Should be OK but one more win would confirm. Have finally resolved their FFP case with a fine and embargo so can start next season with a clean slate. 

17th – Birmingham (45 points, 1 game less, max possible points 60) – FFP finally caught up with them with a 9 point deduction that has put them on the fringe of the relegation battle. Should be fine but one more win would make sure.  May also get punished next season.

16th - Blackburn (50 points, 1 game less, max possible points 65) – I think pre-season their fans would have taken this as a first season back in the division.  That said 2 wins in 12 has seen them fall into the bottom half when they looked good for a top half finish for a long time

15th – Stoke (51 points, 1 game less, max possible points 66) – Will be playing Championship football next year. Started poorly and kept expecting them to push on but it hasn’t happened.  They sacked Rowett but the managerial change hasn’t helped. 18 draws out of 41 games

14th - Brentford (54 points, 1 game less, max possible points 69) – Will be playing Championship football next year.  Have had a Bristol City season!  2 reasonable runs of form have bookended a horrible losing run after Dean Smith left.  Can hope for better next term.

13th – Swansea (56 points, 1 game less, max possible points 74) – Have been solidly mid-table all season without really looking like challenging.  Sold rather than bought in the window.  Have a theoretical shot at the playoffs due to their extra game but can’t see it happening.

12th – Preston (57 points, 1 game less, max possible points 72) – Had a terrible start but have pulled themselves up to mid table.  On a good run but the playoffs are probably just out of reach

11th – Forest (57 points, 1 game less, max possible points 72) – Started strongly before a wobbly run saw Aitor Karanka given the boot.  The return of Martin O’Neill was a dream homecoming but it hasn’t really clicked yet and they have been distinctly average.

10th - Wednesday (59 points, 1 game less, max possible points 74) - Appointing Steve Bruce has led to a real turnaround in form with 21 points from their last 12 games.  Looks like the season will end too soon for them to make the playoffs but sets them up for next season.

9th – Hull (60 points, 1 game less, max possible points 75) - Rock bottom in October but then had a fabulous run to pull themselves into the top half.  20 points from their last 12 games.  Unlikely to make the playoffs but a much better effort

8th – Derby (60 points, max possible points 78) – Spent most of the first half in the season in the top 6 but have been pretty average lately with 14 points from their last 12 games.  Still in the mix with their game in hand but need to show better form.

7th – Boro (61 points, 1 game less, max possible points 76) – Looked nailed on for a playoff spot but have suffered a disastrous loss of form at the worst possible time with 5 defeats in a row before beating Bolton.  Can’t be ruled out as they still have quality, and form can easily change in the Championship

6th – CITY (65 points, max possible points 83) – Had a little wobble but the international break came at the right time and we’ve shown we deserve a place in the top 6 by beating 3 of our rivals.  4 wins would guarantee a playoff spot (if we can beat Derby) but 3 might be enough.

5th – Villa (66 points, 1 game less, max possible points 81) – Were stuck in a malaise of draws but have pulled some form out of nowhere thanks to a tighter defence.  A cynic might say Birmingham’s FFP punishment has spurred them on, with Villa also rumoured to be in trouble with FFP.

4th – West Brom (70 points, 1 game less, max possible points 85) – Look nailed on for a play off spot.  Like Villa they have scored a lot and conceded a lot.  Feel the Darren Moore sacking was harsh as they are doing much better than the other 2 relegated sides.

3rd – Sheff Utd (78 points, 1 game less, max possible points 93) – Have gone about their business very effectively and under the radar.  Now in a head to head battle with Leeds for 2nd.  Have slightly better form but one less point. 

2nd  – Leeds (79 points, 1 game less, max possible points 94) – Have been up there from day one.  Had a little bit of a wobble following Spygate and have had the odd surprise defeat such as to QPR. The bookies make them very marginal favourites over Sheff U for 2nd spot.

1st  – Norwich (85 points, 1 game less, max possible points 100) – Having a dream season with promotion looking almost nailed on, while Ipswich go the other way.  Are finishing in style with 10 wins from their last 12 games.

SUMMARY – Ipswich are doomed and Bolton will follow.  Rotherham look most likely for the 3rd relegation spot.  Norwich are winning the league at a canter but 2nd spot could go to the wire.  City have a fantastic opportunity to make the playoffs with Derby probably being our biggest threat (game in hand and we have to play them).

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On 11/04/2019 at 10:14, phantom said:

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If we assume top 3 is out....yeah I know, how negative!!

So West Brom - 3 of their 5 games against challengers - Preston, Hull, Derby...so someone’s dropping points

Villa - play us, but end with Leeds and Norwich!

Derby - play us and West Brom

Boro - play Hull - probably the best chance of sticking a run together

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1 hour ago, Major Isewater said:

It’s in our hands. If we make it or not what a great position to be in . 

Indeed. I don't think anyone can argue it hasn't been on the whole a very good season considering where we were at the start having lost 3 of our then best players.

I still can't help but look at our remaining fixtures and think we'll come up just short but a win on Saturday would change all that.

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2 hours ago, Alessandro said:

Boro’s the team I worry about. Could easily nick it from us if we lose a few key games and wins slip into draws.

I think the crunch games for Boro are Hull City at home this weekend, then Forest away on Easter Monday. Hull is a bit of a 6 pointer for them. If they lose, Hull nip ahead of them in the race. 

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5 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

It’s in our hands. If we make it or not what a great position to be in . 

Yep - 4 points clear with a game in hand on Boro (plus 3 goals on goal difference) or 5 points clear of Derby (5 goals on goal difference).

Its ours to chuck away - another 8 points should do it and it doesn't matter where/when they come from.

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