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Away wins v home form


sticks 1969

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Can’t be many other teams that have picked up so many point on the road only to get so few at home. I think I read a poster saying we will never get so many away wins in a season again.

total frustration with were we could have been .but like so many say still a bloody good season and still in with a slight shout

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This for me is the one thing that’s been so frustrating about this season, and I reckon LJ left it to long before making changes to the formation, going from one up top to two. If that had been done earlier against the lesser sides, I believe we’d have picked up the points necessary. 

 

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I dont know how many off hand we have won at home but it feels like I've seen either draws or losses.

I've seen 7 away games which have been  5 wins and 2 draws and only 2 conceeded. So from a personal point of view it feels very different

If only we have been a bit braver or imposed ourselves on the opposition a bit more at home. We tend to play like the away team at home and the home team away, very odd.

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5 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

We set up at home so negative. A lot of our fans won't have seen many of our actual good performances this season. 

If you only go to home games you'll be pretty disappointed with this season's offering. 

I am. 

Hmmm don't we set up the same way away?

The difference being that home teams are more inclined to attack us as home fans demand their team attack at home. Very few teams come to Ashton Gate and attack. 

I believe if our crowd was a little more patient and less demanding then we may have seen better results at home.

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Interesting looking at the stats. On raw results the difference between Home and Away is three more wins away at the expense of three draws.

So Away leads Home by 6 points with Home having played 23 and Away 22. Not really that much across a season.

But for me it's that shocking 17% clean sheet record at Home that really stands out. That's awful, especially when compared to the rate for Away - 41%. That's why the Home fans are such more pessimistic than the away, they've seen us concede 5 out every 6 games!

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Seems to me that we try to draw teams on to us at home, with the aim of hitting them on the break. To do that successfully though it needs to be done at pace, which we rarely seem capable of. Our build up play is often much too slow. Gives the opposition plenty of time to get behind the ball.

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Its not rocket science. We're defensively sound and are always likely to nick one on the break. We've also zip midfield creativity and strikers, such on the rare occasion at home we are able to break a team down the conversion rate for chances created is low.

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7 hours ago, sticks 1969 said:

Can’t be many other teams that have picked up so many point on the road only to get so few at home. I think I read a poster saying we will never get so many away wins in a season again.

That was me, about why Saturday hurt so much, because in my lifetime I don't remember ever beating this number of decent teams on their own patch in just one season, and I find it almost impossible to believe we could repeat the feat because it is a massive undertaking. Keep in mind we went 8 and a half months without a league away win before QPR away this season. 

  • Sheff Utd
  • Middlesbrough
  • Nottingham Forest
  • Swansea
  • Blackburn
  • Brentford
  • Stoke
  • Birmingham
  • QPR
  • +Millwall
  • Ipswich

The only concession you can make is perhaps several of the bigger scalps were clubs having poor seasons, as only 4 are top half teams, 5 if you count Birmingham pre points deduction - but I think any long term City fan will know our "strike rate" (in years!) for wins at some of these places and to do it all in one season and end up with nothing to show with it would be pretty devastating.

And in any case, whoever you are, and whoever the opposition is, winning away is never supposed to be easy (hence "win your home games draw your away games") - we have the joint most wins in the Championship away from home, and in the Premier League only Man City and Liverpool have managed more (and only 5 teams overall in the 92). Now, about those home games...

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7 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

We set up at home so negative. A lot of our fans won't have seen many of our actual good performances this season. 

If you only go to home games you'll be pretty disappointed with this season's offering. 

I am. 

Totally with you there. Looking  at our position,  no one can deny that It's been a decent season overall, yet I've been underwhelmed by watching city more often than not. Bizarre 

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I’ve been saying for ages now that our build up play is just too slow and ponderous at home. In most games, certainly in the second half of the season,  we’ve managed one spell where we’ve played with power and pace and moved the ball quickly and invariably this will have been where we’ve scored. These spells usually last about 5 or 10 minutes. Bolton, Wigan and Reading are all games where this happened and we only won 1 of those 3. 

Now I know it’s not as simple as this, but if we could just manage 2 or 3 spells a game  where we really go at teams rather than just the one we’d be doing so much better. As others have said, we’ve been too cagey at AG this season, especially against the weaker teams. 

Its been a good season overall and I don’t think there’s any doubt now that LJ is the man to take us forward. I’d be more worried about the prospect of him leaving us than the other way around. If he can just find a way of getting us on the front foot more consistently at home, with a bit more quality around the opposition area,  we’ll be in for another exciting year. 

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30 minutes ago, 22A said:

It's not a recent phenomenon. 1972-73 City won eight away games before the first home win which came in November.

Does 1972-72 count as recent?

Rightly or wrongly, our home form seems to rely on the tactics of the away team. Come to play football and we've seen good games. Come and defend hoping to grab a draw or nick a goal for the win and we've found it very hard to break teams down. 

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45 minutes ago, Laner said:

Rightly or wrongly, our home form seems to rely on the tactics of the away team. Come to play football and we've seen good games. Come and defend hoping to grab a draw or nick a goal for the win and we've found it very hard to break teams down. 

Spot on.

It would seem that LJ has established a way of playing away pretty successfully as the record shows. It’s the home form that has  been a problem all season, possibly because LJ and his assistants over think what the opposition strengths are rather concentrating on our own strengths and being more positive. 

Add to that the absence of a creative midfielder........

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16 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

We set up at home so negative. A lot of our fans won't have seen many of our actual good performances this season. 

If you only go to home games you'll be pretty disappointed with this season's offering. 

I am. 

We average 13 shots per game at home- that's not terribly negative in my book, however the accuracy leaves a fair bit to be desired.

Set up negative? Do you mean one up front- remind me how many Norwich or Leeds play up front with at home if it's the case that you mean that.

However @BS4 on Tour... Goor point. Shots on target 1? Preston and Leeds games I believe. However to me that exacerbates the issue, can sometimes paint a worse picture than there is.

@Up The City!

Are you sure? Ipswich (!) of all sides were pretty positive. So too were Wigan, Leeds absolutely were, first half especially. Norwich were, Sheffield United didn't park the bus..Nottingham Forest fairly positive.

Birmingham were an interesting one- not possession based but strong counter attacking shots based game. Brentford were pretty good IMO. Neither West Brom or Aston Villa parked the bus, although we overwhelmed West Brom first 20 mins. QPR broke on us first half, though our slow start definitely played a role. Even Rotherham first half were more positive than many assumed. Preston were their usual gnarly, niggly selves and we had more possession but they did counter on us in a positive sense.

Only home game I've missed this season was Derby and your narrative isn't one I fully recognise. Think it's been more of a mixed bag in terms of opposition setups at AG.

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10 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Interesting looking at the stats. On raw results the difference between Home and Away is three more wins away at the expense of four draws.

So Away leads Home by 5 points with Home having played 23 and Away 22. Not really that much across a season.

Firstly, I got the stats a little wrong in my previous post. It was late, I didn't proofread. I apologise for my slackness and will put myself in the stocks later.

However, I did find the actual table I was looking for. As you can see we are the ONLY team in the division to have a better away record than home. Bolton are breaking even but they've had a very strange season so are an outlier. A couple of other teams are also close to evens. However, the majority of teams are gaining in the region of 0.3 - 0.8 points per game more at home than away. We are completely the other way. 0.29 ppg more at grounds that are not Ashton Gate. I'm also not sure how the table treats Birmingham's point deduction - did the League specify exactly which 9 points they lost or was it simply a flat deduction - in which case are 4.5 removed from both the home and away records? Who knows and I guess who cares? Anyway, we are an anomaly.

Another stat: our home fans have seen us concede the opening goal in 13 of the 22 home matches played. Only Bolton fans have seen more, with 15. We've scored the opening goal at Ashton Gate 10 times, only three teams have done so on fewer occasions; Bolton (again, what a dreadful season), Ipswich, and QPR.

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10 hours ago, Up The City! said:

Hmmm don't we set up the same way away?

The difference being that home teams are more inclined to attack us as home fans demand their team attack at home. Very few teams come to Ashton Gate and attack. 

I believe if our crowd was a little more patient and less demanding then we may have seen better results at home.

So it’s the supporters fault now is it ? 

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