Stats - Passing in Final Third

[And Its Smith]

I am not hugely into stats per se but sometimes they can highlight areas of strength and weaknesses.  I have felt for a while that we have been poor at passing in the final third and often either the final pass is poor or we are forced wide and deliver a poor cross. 

In our last 6 games we have successfully completed 309 out of 456 passes in the final third, at a percentage of 67%.  

You will see from the table below that generally, most players are a much of a muchness in terms of final third ability.  

What surprised me was when looking at Leeds, Villa, Brentford and Norwich their worst 'offenders' were still achieving 75%, the same as our best Weimann.  Players like Grealish, Hernandez and Bamford were in the 90% area more often than not.  

An area that we need to improve on I say.  Is it lack of passing ability under pressure?  Lack of ability to pass into tight spaces? Lack of movement from others to create space?  

Interested in people's thoughts. 

[chinapig]

5 minutes ago, RedDave said:

I am not hugely into stats per se but sometimes they can highlight areas of strength and weaknesses.  I have felt for a while that we have been poor at passing in the final third and often either the final pass is poor or we are forced wide and deliver a poor cross. 

In our last 6 games we have successfully completed 309 out of 456 passes in the final third, at a percentage of 67%.  

You will see from the table below that generally, most players are a much of a muchness in terms of final third ability.  

What surprised me was when looking at Leeds, Villa, Brentford and Norwich their worst 'offenders' were still achieving 75%, the same as our best Weimann.  Players like Grealish, Hernandez and Bamford were in the 90% area more often than not.  

An area that we need to improve on I say.  Is it lack of passing ability under pressure?  Lack of ability to pass into tight spaces? Lack of movement from others to create space?  

Interested in people's thoughts. 

It's difficult to draw any conclusions without knowing the difficulty of the passes attempted. If player A always plays a simple pass to a nearby teammate and player B tries to open the defence with a more difficult pass, player A will have the better stats.

Bamford for instance might be receiving the ball with his back to goal and laying it off to a midfielder 5 yards behind him.

Grealish and Hernandez are of course 2 of the best players in the Championship so in statistical terms are outliers.

[Fordy62]

Arguably our best at the killer pass is Palmer. But he doesn’t play. I’m not sure why. 

[And Its Smith]

2 minutes ago, chinapig said:

It's difficult to draw any conclusions without knowing the difficulty of the passes attempted. If player A always plays a simple pass to a nearby teammate and player B tries to open the defence with a more difficult pass, player A will have the better stats.

Bamford for instance might be receiving the ball with his back to goal and laying it off to a midfielder 5 yards behind him.

Grealish and Hernandez are of course 2 of the best players in the Championship so in statistical terms are outliers.

I do agree but found it interesting that all of our players, completely different types playing in different positions all achieved roughly the same poor percentages.

I am drawn towards conclusion that it is a space thing, not making runs as much as a passing ability issue 

[nickolas]

But do crosses count as passes? I’d argue this year we have centred our play on crossing at every opportunity. 

If these are counted, the high percentage of crosses are unsuccessful so this would seriously dent the percentages!

[And Its Smith]

2 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Arguably our best at the killer pass is Palmer. But he doesn’t play. I’m not sure why. 

Because he doesn’t track back. Johnson only happen to play him when we are behind as he is happy to be more open 

[Cowshed]

14 minutes ago, RedDave said:

I am not hugely into stats per se but sometimes they can highlight areas of strength and weaknesses.  I have felt for a while that we have been poor at passing in the final third and often either the final pass is poor or we are forced wide and deliver a poor cross. 

In our last 6 games we have successfully completed 309 out of 456 passes in the final third, at a percentage of 67%.  

You will see from the table below that generally, most players are a much of a muchness in terms of final third ability.  

What surprised me was when looking at Leeds, Villa, Brentford and Norwich their worst 'offenders' were still achieving 75%, the same as our best Weimann.  Players like Grealish, Hernandez and Bamford were in the 90% area more often than not.  

An area that we need to improve on I say.  Is it lack of passing ability under pressure?  Lack of ability to pass into tight spaces? Lack of movement from others to create space?  

Interested in people's thoughts. 

It would be interesting to see what is being measured. A 90% pass accuracy in the final third is astoundingly high. 

[And Its Smith]

1 minute ago, nickolas said:

But do crosses count as passes? I’d argue this year we have centred our play on crossing at every opportunity. 

If these are counted, the high percentage of crosses are unsuccessful so this would seriously dent the percentages!

Crosses so count as passes. Maybe this highlights that it’s a poor tactic

[And Its Smith]

3 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

It would be interesting to see what is being measured. A 90% pass accuracy in the final third is astoundingly high. 

Here is Grealish v Leeds. You will see that 100% of his passes, 8/8 were successful final third

 

[Cowshed]

18 minutes ago, RedDave said:

Here is Grealish v Leeds. You will see that 100% of his passes, 8/8 were successful final third

 

 

Thanks .. His completion there is less than 80%. 40% go backwards or sideways If I take that as a whole across all thirds, it is not particularly good or poor. its hard to view the difficulty here as those in the final third could be passes overall where he is not attempting to penetrate lines. One assist v 8 passes in the final third  is above norms if the grey is an assist = The sample of course needs to be much larger to form a more informed view. 

[Lrrr]

This is why I prefer packing, it gives relevance to passing rather than pure numbers. How many of these passes were < 5 metres with no player near them? How many were passes which led to nothing? Passing stats can easily be boosted by that.

[And Its Smith]

3 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

 

Thanks .. His completion there is less than 80%. 40% go backwards or sideways If I take that as a whole across all thirds, it is not particularly good or poor. its hard to view the difficulty here as those in the final third could be passes overall where he is not attempting to penetrate lines. One assist v 8 passes in the final third  is above norms if the grey is an assist = The sample of course needs to be much larger to form a more informed view. 

His total completion is less than 80% but I was talking purely final third. Grey is an assist yes

[JamesBCFC]

1 minute ago, hodge said:

This is why I prefer packing, it gives relevance to passing rather than pure numbers. How many of these passes were < 5 metres with no player near them? How many were passes which led to nothing? Passing stats can easily be boosted by that.

Good ol' Jens. Maybe we should offer him an analyst job.

[And Its Smith]

5 minutes ago, hodge said:

This is why I prefer packing, it gives relevance to passing rather than pure numbers. How many of these passes were < 5 metres with no player near them? How many were passes which led to nothing? Passing stats can easily be boosted by that.

All of Pack’s successful ones for sure!

[Lrrr]

20 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Good ol' Jens. Maybe we should offer him an analyst job.

He did some pre season opposition analysis for us I think, think it was in the video we had over the summer they mentioned it.

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, Cowshed said:

 

Thanks .. His completion there is less than 80%. 40% go backwards or sideways If I take that as a whole across all thirds, it is not particularly good or poor. its hard to view the difficulty here as those in the final third could be passes overall where he is not attempting to penetrate lines. One assist v 8 passes in the final third  is above norms if the grey is an assist = The sample of course needs to be much larger to form a more informed view. 

Quite, though a backwards or sideways pass may be exactly the right option in any given circumstances, much though some fans expect every pass to be a defence splitter.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, hodge said:

This is why I prefer packing, it gives relevance to passing rather than pure numbers. How many of these passes were < 5 metres with no player near them? How many were passes which led to nothing? Passing stats can easily be boosted by that.

Agree, Packing is certainly the right way to look at passing. Simple pass completion/attempted ratios aren't enough given the number of variables each pass has to define it.

The best pass in football last night was the assist for Ajax's goal. Look it up. It's so beautifully elegant and simple that it literally stuns Danny Rose so he can't move.

[MT1970]

1 hour ago, RedDave said:

Here is Grealish v Leeds. You will see that 100% of his passes, 8/8 were successful final third

 

Grealish return from injury coincides with their recent record winning streak. 10 straight wins. It shows the kind of impact a player of that ilk has.  Not sure how many assists he has had recently? 

Grealish and Dean Smiths approach is clearly paying off for them.

ps. Hope they go up if we don’t make play offs as they will walk this league next year.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, MT1970 said:

Grealish return from injury coincides with their recent record winning streak. 10 straight wins. It shows the kind of impact a player of that ilk has.  Not sure how many assists he has had recently? 

Grealish and Dean Smiths approach is clearly paying off for them.

ps. Hope they go up if we don’t make play offs as they will walk this league next year.

 

Not if financial regs are enforced correctly they won't- it should severely weaken them actually.

On the actual thread itself, that is actually decent ratio for final 3rd! No it isn't world beating but it is solid!

Shows Paterson and Weimann to be threats, Diedhiou's is surprisingly high IMO and I assumed Walsh's would be higher,  as I always had him down as someone who could break the lines quite well.

Agree with @chinapig too- not every pass has to be one that is forward to be a good one- sideways and backwards can help to build, can buy time- rest in possession if you like.

[JamesBCFC]

28 minutes ago, MT1970 said:

Grealish return from injury coincides with their recent record winning streak. 10 straight wins. It shows the kind of impact a player of that ilk has.  Not sure how many assists he has had recently? 

Grealish and Dean Smiths approach is clearly paying off for them.

ps. Hope they go up if we don’t make play offs as they will walk this league next year.

 

If they don't go up they are in big FFP trouble next season.

Grealish will likely have to be sold. 

Can see them being down for a few more years yet if they don't win the playoffs.

[chinapig]

4 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

If they don't go up they are in big FFP trouble next season.

Grealish will likely have to be sold. 

Can see them being down for a few more years yet if they don't win the playoffs.

We can only hope. I may find myself in the uncomfortable position of rooting for a Pulis team in the play offs if it means an increasingly odious Villa missing out.

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

If they don't go up they are in big FFP trouble next season.

Grealish will likely have to be sold. 

Can see them being down for a few more years yet if they don't win the playoffs.

They are in big trouble this season, but the EFL seem to be ignoring the projected accounts sent in March!!

[chinapig]

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

They are in big trouble this season, but the EFL seem to be ignoring the projected accounts sent in March!!

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked. Or not as the case may be.

[Lrrr]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I assumed Walsh's would be higher,  as I always had him down as someone who could break the lines quite well

He's also likely to try riskier balls which can lead to a lower percentage, that percentage every ball could lead to a goal whereas someone with 90% could just be playing it around the edge of the box 

[Mr Popodopolous]

12 minutes ago, hodge said:

He's also likely to try riskier balls which can lead to a lower percentage, that percentage every ball could lead to a goal whereas someone with 90% could just be playing it around the edge of the box 

This is true- risk-reward.

[Lrrr]

29 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This is true- risk-reward.

Links back to why packing can be a better system

[Dullmoan Tone]

But on face value (and it's only one stat) all those people slating Pack citing lack of sleep should also look at his team mates (and perhaps Walsh is not yet the answer).

Agree with Fordy62 on Palmer though - we should have considered building play around him for teams like Derby when we failed to unlock the defence.

For example, does Grealish track back?

[Cowshed]

14 hours ago, chinapig said:

Quite, though a backwards or sideways pass may be exactly the right option in any given circumstances, much though some fans expect every pass to be a defence splitter.

Stas from an FA mentor.  34 - 35% of Chelsea's, Liverpool's and Spurs passes go backwards. Man City it is 40%. 

[Dr Balls]

Also looking at the City stats, it makes you realise how much we battered Reading for scant reward. Still can't look past the Ipswich, Wigan and Reading home draws as having undone our playoff chances. 2, 4 or even 6 extra points would have made a huge difference at this stage. But the reality is that currently we aren't good enough at making the most of our possession and converting the chances we do make. And that's the difference at even the very highest level, as Liverpool found out last night.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, Dr Balls said:

Also looking at the City stats, it makes you realise how much we battered Reading for scant reward. Still can't look past the Ipswich, Wigan and Reading home draws as having undone our playoff chances. 2, 4 or even 6 extra points would have made a huge difference at this stage. But the reality is that currently we aren't good enough at making the most of our possession and converting the chances we do make. And that's the difference at even the very highest level, as Liverpool found out last night.

Reading definitely, we battered them.

Wigan we should have won but tbh they went at us too, wasn't a bus parking opponent at all- I remember they got 2 early free kicks and though it was partly down to our slow start, it was also a statement of intent by them- the real frustrating aspect of that one though was that after pulling it back to 2-1 and all the momentum with us, we couldn't see it out. More than that, Wright missed a big chance during that spell that would have made it 3-1.

Ipswich I thought were surprisingly good as much as we were poor- definitely had potential to draw and even win at AG. They attacked us more than expected- yet we hit the woodwork in the first half. It goes 2-0 and we win- not convincing, not vintage but we win.

Of those 3 draws, I think all things being equal/even we should have won 2 of those.

@Dullmoan Tone Tracking back is one form of defending- so too is intense pressing from the front. Grealish may not necessarily need to track back or at least it may not be quite as important- key defensive stats as per WhoScored are an average of 1.2 tackles per game, 0.5 interceptions, 0.5 clearances and 0.1 blocks.

Palmer by way of comparison with us- and it's harder to gauge as he joined us halfway,  has been in and out etc- An average of 0.8 tackles per game, 0.1 interceptions, 0.1 clearances and as of yet 0 blocks. Interestingly though at Blackburn, his figures were somewhat better- 1.9 tackles, 0.7 interceptions, 0.6 clearances and 0.1 blocks. He does have work to do defensively though.