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Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

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@SX227  Thanks for taking the time to write a significant post. Those who don't have the attention span to read or the maturity to ignore it are embarrassing, particularly at the age of 65+.

There's a couple of things that I disagree with to some degree. The point about taking a gamble on younger players, whether it is £5m or £10m as debated above, is something I'd like to comment on. This was done over three seasons where our net transfer receipts have been exceptional. We've made somewhere between £30m-£40m in transfer receipts over this period and, without having data to hand, I estimate that the total of all transfers before this period to the date we were established did not add up to this amount. 

The upside to this gamble was huge, in the sense that one or two of the signing could each become £10-£15m players. Conversely, the obvious issue with gambles, there is a downside and sadly few of them look to have paid off. But as mentioned previously, the significant income from Kodjia, Reid, Bryan, Flint and Magnússon has allowed us to set aside a quarter of these receipts to make such gambles. As a result, it isn't really a huge amount lost and, in my opinion, we should continue to make these going forward to continue to reinvest funds. 

Regarding the point about the research and scouting undertook for Djuric, I have no doubt that the analysts will be more than aware of his goalscoring ratio at Cesena/Bosnia and also who he scored against. They have vast amounts of information on each player these days, including a lot of non-footballing data. Players will not just be identified on their current goalscoring ratios, LJ and his team will look to identify dangerous forwards who can increase their return year-on-year and other more than just goals to the team. By recognising these players before they become a 20 goal-a-season striker, they can secure them at a fraction of the price. In my opinion, Djuric was signed as a plan B and to be thrown on if we are chasing a game.  

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

In real life he’d be Nobby Nomates, nobody would chat to him.

He adds nothing to the threads on a regular basis and worse winds posters up .

 I agree with you that the novelty wore off long long ago.

 I am sure that he is a decent , intelligent bloke and regret his stance.

Come on Robbored, change the record.

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

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11 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

Quick question for those who understand these things...

Shelling out 500k on a youth players/development player.... Does that go against FFP or not?

It does but player registrations, albeit youth or senior player squad expenses, are spread over the life of the contract and impact it through depreciation. 

As an example, if we signed a youth player on a five year detail for £400k plus £100k of agents fees, it would impact it as follows:

(£400k + £100k)/ 5 years = £100k per annum. 

This would reduce our reported profit by £100k a year and are not offset just because they're academy players. However, academy running costs are deductible.

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9 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

So don't open it then.

Simple.

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2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

That is all fine, but why the response you gave?  Ignore, contribute (agreeing or disagreeing) or at least add a pun @Major Isewater!

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I agree with some of the points made and disagree with others. One comment that I think is wrong is: 

“If Lansdown will not spend big (as FFP is firmly now on our side) then there are only 2 reasons.

1) He doesn't want promotion and is intending to sell OR

2) He does not have 100% faith in LJ and the recruitment team”

There is a third reason that SL has stated many times - i e he wants the  club to be self sustaining and he intends to achieve this by bringing in younger players at a reasonably low fee and using the academy . Players can develop and become established first team players and / or be sold at a profit. SL hasn’t indicated any willingness  to change this approach, but we will see in the summer

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1 minute ago, Coxy27 said:

Is that a prediction?

Fact.......Think about it.

Everything is PL ready. Well oiled infrastructure. Top class training facilities at Failand, very decent stadium, decent current squad of players. Decent manager. 

Whats needed now is the support of SL and the board to give LJ the resources he’ll need ready for the next campaign.

 

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On the fees v wages point, fees are amortised.

In accounting and FFP terms it's fine- cash terms we can pay it easily due to or perhaps subject to SL, but regardless of how the deal is structured- loose example maybe 4 year deal £4m-£3m-£3m let's just say for example, but 4 year deal has it down as £2.5m per year on Cost of Amortisation. Spreads the risk, the expenditure- so long as either we have sufficient cash or SL is happy to pay it. If SL decided we needed that extra push and signed Vydra for £10m say in June, on wages of £40k per week- I'm not going to get into agents fees etc, don't have time :laugh: but just the basics. That's £10m + say £2m per year hence an £18m total investment- but in year 1 it appears like a £12m investment.

Appears on balance sheet as £2.5m added to cost of amortisation and £2m added to wage bill. More affordable than it seems! Fee structure is more of a cashflow thing perhaps- pay £4m Year 1, £3m Year 2 and £3m Year 3 let's say. Value when signed £10m, after a year of contract £7.5m, Halfway through £5m, into final year £2.5m- anything over and above that on a linear line is a profit. Anything below a loss- removal of £2.5m from balance sheet amortisation surely helps too though and is a bit of an insurance policy if it doesn't pay off. That's as distinct from a profit though- tidying up exercise or maybe cost reduction?

That's before we even get onto what @JamesBCFC I think it was said, about wages for young players not being a huge amount.

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One thing I can see coming is everyone's definition of 'going for it' will be different and I reckon we'll still see comments come August along the lines of 'This is what Lansdown calls going for it' and the bs calls that he doesn't want promotion even if we bring in a record transfer if we don't go and get someone like Assombalonga even though he's apparently on £35,000 a week.

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4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That is all fine, but why the response you gave?  Ignore, contribute (agreeing or disagreeing) or at least add a pun @Major Isewater!

On here and in life I’ve always said it how it is by being honest. That was reinforced by the work I did and why I was so highly regarded  by those I treated and those I worked with.

Too late in life now to make core changes Dave.

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3 minutes ago, hodge said:

One thing I can see coming is everyone's definition of 'going for it' will be different and I reckon we'll still see comments come August along the lines of 'This is what Lansdown calls going for it' and the bs calls that he doesn't want promotion even if we bring in a record transfer if we don't go and get someone like Assombalonga even though he's apparently on £35,000 a week.

Well this is it.

Lots of people say that we didn't give it that proper push in Jan 2018. The fact was we were close to our limit- we could not. Actually if those people look at our transactions and analyse the accounts for that season, they'll see that we did go for it over the course of the season.

Our highest income perhaps in our history...and our record losses!

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

On the fees v wages point, fees are amortised.

In accounting and FFP terms it's fine- cash terms we can pay it easily due to SL, but regardless of how the deal is structured- loose example maybe 4 year deal £4m-£3m-£3m let's just say for example, but 4 year deal has it down as £2.5m per year on Cost of Amortisation. Spreads the risk, the expenditure- so long as either we have sufficient cash or SL is happy to pay it. If SL decided we needed that extra push and signed Vydra for £10m say in June, on wages of £40k per week- I'm not going to get into agents fees etc, don't have time :laugh: but just the basics. That's £10m + say £2m per year hence an £18m total investment.

Appears on balance sheet as £2.5m added to cost of amortisation and £2m added to wage bill. More affordable than it seems! Fee structure is more of a cashflow thing perhaps- pay £4m Year 1, £3m Year 2 and £3m Year 3 let's say. Value when signed £10m, after a year of contract £7.5m, Halfway through £5m, into final year £2.5m- anything over and above that on a linear line is a profit. Anything below a loss- removal of £2.5m from balance sheet amortisation surely helps too though and is a bit of an insurance policy if it doesn't pay off. That's as distinct from a profit though- tidying up exercise or maybe cost reduction?

That's before we even get onto what @JamesBCFC I think it was said, about wages for young players not being a huge amount.

Unless we change to the Derby method and revalue our players every season!!!  You can imagine at some point, inflated player values (just like their ground!!!) to keep Derby losses down (due to lower amortisation) eventually biting them on their arse.  Can’t wait.

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well this is it.

Lots of people say that we didn't give it that proper push in Jan 2018. The fact was we were close to our limit- we could not. Actually if those people look at our transactions and analyse the accounts for that season, they'll see that we did go for it over the course of the season.

Our highest income perhaps in our history...and our record losses!

Nut. Shell.

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17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Unless we change to the Derby method and revalue our players every season!!!  You can imagine at some point, inflated player values (just like their ground!!!) to keep Derby losses down (due to lower amortisation) eventually biting them on their arse.  Can’t wait.

I wonder how they do that, the whole revaluation thing- seems pretty opaque.

I hope it is independently assessed- in partial defence of Derby and this was my view until their ground bullshit, but unlike others (Aston Villa, Birmingham, QPR maybe, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday) they did sell a lot of good players- Grant, Christie, Hendrick, Hughes, Ince, Vydra and Weimann last 3 seasons. However that partial leeway by me has now evaporated because of their unnecessary IMO ground thing. They should have just sucked it up and if they were close to the limit accepted it for what it was and taken a year or 2 of austerity, of rebuild.

Now I hope they get a lengthy embargo and points deduction for the cynicism alone!

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18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I wonder how they do that, the whole revaluation thing- seems pretty opaque.

I hope it is independently assessed- in partial defence of Derby and this was my view until their ground bullshit, but unlike others (Aston Villa, Birmingham, QPR maybe, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday) they did sell a lot of good players- Grant, Christie, Hendrick, Hughes, Ince, Vydra and Weimann last 3 seasons. However that partial leeway by me has now evaporated because of their unnecessary IMO ground thing. They should have just sucked it up and if they were close to the limit accepted it for what it was and taken a year or 2 of austerity, of rebuild.

Now I hope they get a lengthy embargo and points deduction for the cynicism alone!

I feel like that's becoming the case for quite a few clubs now!

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4 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

 I feel like that's becoming the case for quite a few clubs now!

ironically though Birmingham were stung by it, they didn't try to obfuscate.

They openly defied through stupidity, naivety, arrogance- a mixture of the 3- but they didn't try any shit stunts like selling ground to themselves or whatever Aston Villa or Sheffield Wednesday have planned.

My favourite fail was QPR- £69m losses under the old rules then simply write £60m exceptional item- how they hoped to get that waved through! ?

BACK on topic and I hope we add some star power this summer. Vydra on loan for one- subject to attitude- would do nicely up front IMO. We have some wiggle room- let's use it.

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5 minutes ago, RedDave said:

Feel like a broken record:

Spending big doesn’t increase your chances of success necessarily. If it did then Norwich and Sheffield United wouldn’t be going up. Both of their XIs last Saturday cost less than £5.5m.

Spend smart, not big.

and keep buying for the future

Get that, but balanced approach surely.

i.e. If we can and if the right bigger signing comes along get them in, while sticking to the plan in general.

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1 minute ago, RedDave said:

Feel like a broken record:

Spending big doesn’t increase your chances of success necessarily. If it did then Norwich and Sheffield United wouldn’t be going up. Both of their XIs last Saturday cost less than £5.5m.

Spend smart, not big.

and keep buying for the future.....but get them into the first team squad, quicker.

Edited ?

I totally agree though, it’s not about big fees, it’s about the right players for the right system.

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20 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

ironically though Birmingham were stung by it, they didn't try to obfuscate.

They openly defied through stupidity, naivety, arrogance- a mixture of the 3- but they didn't try any shit stunts like selling ground to themselves or whatever Aston Villa or Sheffield Wednesday have planned.

My favourite fail was QPR- £69m losses under the old rules then simply write £60m exceptional item- how they hoped to get that waved through?

BACK on topic and I hope we add some star power this summer. Vydra on loan for one- subject to attitude- would do nicely up front IMO. We have some wiggle room- let's use it.

Fortunately for QPR, the FFP punishments were as laughable as their excuse.

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The changes in how our club is run, managed, recruitment, youth development have been quite dramatic since McInnes and O'Driscoll set out to modernise Bristol City. Even if their first team results were poor, they began the job that has been continued by Cottrell, Johnson and Ashton.

The Academy had been badly neglected, so it was a miracle that Bryan and Reid came through. The recruitment of under 23's has therefore been very unusual in an attempt to quickly create in three or four years what would have taken twenty if done very slowly.

So while I'm sure that we have made big strides in recruiting under 16-18's, we also needed to buy in those in the next age group at a quality level that would give a better chance of success in our first team and ultimately increase selling prices.

That is why we've bought in those like Bakinson, Jonny Smith, Brownhill, Eliasson, O'Dowda, Walsh, Eisa, Adelakun, Moore etc. Not all will make it but we now have a chance that some will. And the ultimate sale of one or two may cover the cost of all of them.

We've also seen O'Leary, Kelly, Vyner, Morrell coming through from our improved Academy.

There is a lot to be confident about.

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1 hour ago, pongo88 said:

I agree with some of the points made and disagree with others. One comment that I think is wrong is: 

“If Lansdown will not spend big (as FFP is firmly now on our side) then there are only 2 reasons.

1) He doesn't want promotion and is intending to sell OR

2) He does not have 100% faith in LJ and the recruitment team”

There is a third reason that SL has stated many times - i e he wants the  club to be self sustaining and he intends to achieve this by bringing in younger players at a reasonably low fee and using the academy . Players can develop and become established first team players and / or be sold at a profit. SL hasn’t indicated any willingness  to change this approach, but we will see in the summer

Absolutely this. I didn’t read the whole post after I got to this blatant anti Lansdown sneering.

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1 minute ago, cidered abroad said:

The changes in how our club is run, managed, recruitment, youth development have been quite dramatic since McInnes and O'Driscoll set out to modernise Bristol City. Even if their first team results were poor, they began the job that has been continued by Cottrell, Johnson and Ashton.

The Academy had been badly neglected, so it was a miracle that Bryan and Reid came through. The recruitment of under 23's has therefore been very unusual in an attempt to quickly create in three or four years what would have taken twenty if done very slowly.

So while I'm sure that we have made big strides in recruiting under 16-18's, we also needed to buy in those in the next age group at a quality level that would give a better chance of success in our first team and ultimately increase selling prices.

That is why we've bought in those like Bakinson, Jonny Smith, Brownhill, Eliasson, O'Dowda, Walsh, Eisa, Adelakun, Moore etc. Not all will make it but we now have a chance that some will. And the ultimate sale of one or two may cover the cost of all of them.

We've also seen O'Leary, Kelly, Vyner, Morrell coming through from our improved Academy.

There is a lot to he confident about.

Good post.

Looking back you can almost see those phases.  McInnes and SOD (mainly) Re-establishing the foundation, but playing side needed a jolt.  The foundations are overkill for 4th division football.  In comes Cotts, avoids relegation, gets promotion quickly, moves on.  Back in the Champ we begin progress from a better starting point.

I doubt that was the true plan from SL, but Cotts could be seen as his short-term troubleshooter, was never gonna be here long-term.

We have come a long way since 12/13’s relegation, but it really does feel we are in a good place.  I’ll still moan about LJ and the players in terms of on-field / touchline performances on a match to match basis, but I've never been as content as I am now.

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10 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Would be a great signing - also seen Che Adams mentioned on here as a target 

I too would think Che Adams an excellent signing, I just wonder if he's within our price range both fee and wages. Okay wages we maybe able to stretch to, but fee...was reading £20-25m earlier this year!

If I was Sheffield United, I'd be looking to re-sign him for a start.

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