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SX227

The next few months will tell us the future of OUR club.

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Appreciate the post. Disagree about the kids. They are worthy investments. You state about younger playing in prem but they are a different class of young players. Need to look at young players as investments rather than expenditures imo. 

We will get some wrong. We do focus on it too much at times. Also, I have said before and @Davefevs has mentioned we tend to overpay for a lot of them. There are prospects out there that would cost 500k or less that we are not identifying. 

Anyway, there are a few losses in there for sure but I think if you do a cost vs profit chart in the near future that it will be paying dividends. You have to also consider the likes of Brownhill and O’Dowda. They were similar buys who developed quicker than some others. Cost around 1.7m for those two and when sold, combined, will likely be 10m+. It does work but we need to have faith that we will produce a few more gems out of that list

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5 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

I disagree with quite a few points the OP makes.

 

The main one being the next four months will tell us the future of our club- really?

some good points on youth though

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9 minutes ago, MC RISK77 said:

The main one being the next four months will tell us the future of our club- really?

some good points on youth though

The problem with the OPs view on moving away from signing potential that can be developed and nurtured through coaching and loan moves and buying more established players means they are looking at a 12 or 24 month strategy at best, before we would be forced to use youth as we would be at the limits of FFP.

 

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45 minutes ago, SX227 said:

First off - will done Lee Johnson. I had significant doubts and was happy to see him sacked.

It's clear now that he has the potential  to be a highly successful manager.

Well done to most of the players - some are absolutely out on their feet - but still trying. Some are totally raw, but giving it their all.

Some are utterly frustrated with their role and not playing - but are staying quiet and persevering in the 'two's' until they get a chance.

Some will not be here next year, but have not complained about extended loans, or playing with the kids.

It points to a settled managerial style, with any bad elements removed.

This has to be down to LJ and JM.

It's been a long, long time since one of our lot was in the papers for the wrong reason - and if they were, they went.

 

What now?

 

I think this is the moment that will define the future of our club.

 

The Lansdowns

 

If Lansdown will not spend big (as FFP is firmly now on our side) then there are only 2 reasons.

1) He doesn't want promotion and is intending to sell OR

2) He does not have 100% faith in LJ and the recruitment team

The logical outcome will be new owners or a new manager, as LJ will not and cannot stay after his presser, where he has basically demanded to be funded.

 

It is however, a double edged sword

 

Recruitment Team

There has been a slew of articles about the detail LJ goes into about his preparation for signings and games. The drones, the software, the grass-measuring.

But someone, somewhere is getting it wrong.

 

Established Players.

For every Kalas and Webster  there has been a Diony or Kent. 

Why is this?  Surely we are conducting social media checks? Background checks, family interviews (ala Tammy)?  Diony's in particular read like a horror show regarding his mental state, and Kents previous loan was a disaster. Yet we went ahead,signed them, and blew the play-offs.

This year - nothing except recalling an unproven loanee -  was that lack of faith in the system by SL and MA or a deliberate ploy to have a go next year? 

 

The outcome - more extensive checks on established proven players before committing to a deal. If there are no suitable players available - say that.

We tried - we had the money, the DNA was found to be wrong so we walked away.

That is EXCELLENT management.

Not lack of ambition.

 

Bit-Part Players

I really don't understand the thinking around this particular group of players.

If they were not good enough - why were they kept on?

Defensively:To me - Da Silva, Pisano, Kalas, Kelly, Webster and Hunt were more than enough.  Bailey Wright, albeit a loyal servant, and Baker are surplus - who decided, at considerable equity value and wages, to keep them on?

Midfield - Pack, Brownhill and Paterson were run ragged throughout the year, yet Morrell, Walsh, O'Dowda, Watkins and Hegeler (remember him - the Top Flight German chap) were never even considered for more than 2 games at a go.

Palmers loan was just baffling as he never started more than 1 game (I believe).

We need to be more ruthless.

Play them or move them on.

Pack has needed a break for 2 months - with Korey out, Pack had to be interchanged - I'd imagine not sleeping with a young bub at home  ain't helping.

 

Forwards: - Fammy has been smashed all year as a lone power-forward. he must be battered from head to toe yet still scored 26 from 72 starts at City despite being subbed off TWENTY SEVEN times. A good effort.He is as exhausted as Pack.

Weimann - put him as a central top - two and he scores for fun - 9 goals.

Out wide, well not so good.

Taylor is better than Taylor actually thinks he is - but really until he gets a solid run, won't believe in himself.

I really think this is why Taylor is a world-class shit-housery champion - he simply does not believe he belongs in the Championship. He has only started 23 times, yet been subbed in or out SIXTY TIMES - hence the paltry 6 goals.

This is the same guy who scored 16 in 27 in League 1 - he can play.

He needs to believe it.

Outside those 3 we rely on the odd goal from midfield. Which ain't happening too often.

 

It was obvious from pre-season we were 2 strikers short - especially after the Djuric/Engvall fiasco's.

So again - who is calling the shots?

If the coaches deem them not good enough - pay out their contracts if the players are willing, seek out a loan so they get game time, or simply sell them.

Something is wrong here - seriously.

Is it a power-struggle between coaches (unlikely), is it interference by Ashton or is it plain bad recruitment?

Is it signing players to be seen to be doing something rather than signing no-one?

 

The Outcome:

Either LJ is signing the wrong player for the role he wants them to play OR

The recruitment team aren't doing their homework properly OR

Some signings are not of LJ's choice.

The answer is simple - LJ must clearly identify the role he wants a player to play in the team, and the recruitment team must deliver a shortlist who 100% fit that role. No more 'clubs in the bag'. No more trying to force a player into another role and hope we have another Reid type fluke.

LJ and JM must recieve a quality list of proven strikers from a UK or European club.  A history of scoring over more than 2 or 3 years. At a minimum.

Djuric was a prime example - 7 in 14 for Bosnia sounded incredible - but when you look closely he played for Cesena when they were in Serie B (he was loaned out when they went up and re-signed after relegation the next year) and only scored 23 in ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY FIVE GAMES.

Injury or not, that was never enough to be a 20+ Championship scorer, as his 5 in 22 in Serie B for Salernitana indicate.

His international Goals were against Wales + Cyprus,in the Euro qualifiers, Luxembourg in a friendly and Japan and Denmark (sounds good) but in the Kirin Cup - a competition literally made by a Japanese brewery as a 'friendly' invitation-only promotional competition.

Who did their homework?

As for Engvall - god knows.

The point remains - we CANNOT go forward without much better diligence

 

One's for the Future

 

Joseph Wollacott, 

Aden Baldwin 

Hakeeb Adelakun 

Sam Pearson 

Mohamed Eisa 

Antoine Semenyo 

Hakeeb Adelakun

Taylor Moore

Zac Vyner

Rory Holden

Opi Edwards

Jake Andrew

Connor Lemonheigh-Evans

Saikou Janneh

George Dowling

Smith (x 2) Nurse, Morton, Richards,Hinds

The failed Bakinson transfer

 

How many millions of ££ have the club blown here? At least £10,000,000.

We bought some of these, if not most, and have invested considerable time and money.

Joe Bryan, and a very lucky 1 yr wonder season from Bobby Reid leave an absolute ton of pressure on Kelly, Vyner, Semenyo, Janneh and Moore to become 1st team regulars (I still don't count Kelly as a nailed on starter) to even begin to balance the books.

Adelakun,Eisa and Moore cost £5,000,000 - result Zero.

They are not kids anymore.

Much younger players are playing week in week out in the Premier league.

We cannot compete with Prem Teams for yound kids - so we need to stop going for £1,500,000 punts and FOCUS.

 

We have had kids literally under our nose who are playing regular 1st team football - and playing very well.

We have Kelly here - probably best of the bunch.

Moore at Southend may well be relegated this weekend  - the same guy who made it to England U-20 level and was subject to a 10,000,000 Euros bid from Lyon in 2016. He has played 5 games for us, and 83 games out on loan

Vyner has been relegated at Rotherham - and become a bit of a whipping boy. He has played 8 games for us and looked good - so we have loaned him out for 64 games.

Eisa cost £1,500,000 to play 5 games and disappear.

Hakeeb Adelakun, who after a pretty unremarkable 139 game 16 goal career at Scunthorpe was bought for an alleged £1,000,000 to also play 5 games and disappear.

 

The Outcome

 

This is the big problem - lets be real here - yes we may get get lucky and produce 2 or 3 players from above who will, at best balance this years books.

At worst, Kelly will have had his head turned and leave for a fee which may look good now, but be awfully cheap in 3 yrs and cost us 100+ games.

The money wasted on the rest would pay (as an example) for KALAS, DA SILVA and PALMER should they decide to join.

Obviously we need to sign up young kids - that's not an issue - academy kids come and go all the time.

It's the fact we pay money - even back to good old Arnie Garita.

That was funny at the time, yeah?

NO

It was an example of a piss poor organisation having to pay £50,000 plus 2 yrs wages and accomodation to a guy to keep Kodjia company.

BCFC couldn't find a french speaker for free in Bristol?

An amateur player?

No we decided to pay the best part of £250,000 on Arnie.

To Talk to JK.

 

This has to stop. No more 'punts'.

Whoever was responsible for these signings need to leave.

Spend the money on securing the best local kids, better junior coaches, and identifying a young hungry player ( @Harry may have a view on this!) and sign him.

No more 20 - 23 yr olds who have had average careers and might make it - stock up on academy kids, and buy really good young players for whatever they cost.

And then play them.

A complete overhaul of our development setup is needed.

A thorough review of any young player suggested as a signing over a long period pre-signing with the minimum requirement being that the player be Premier League Standard within 12 months.

Otherwise, what is the point.

Cull the list - Vyner, Moore, Jahheh, Semenyo and Woolacott stay - I'd release the rest.

AND LEARN NOT TO DO IT AGAIN.

 

Conclusion:

 

LJ must learn a few more things.

Stability in position and partnership means more stability overall.

Kalas and Webster should never have been separated.

Play 2 specialist strikers at home every time.

Be clear on who you want in, and who you want out - and stick to it.

Stop the Tombola when you lose a couple.

Stick to what served you well.

LJ and JM must have 100% authority over every aspect of the team - no interference from Ashton or The Lansdowns.

 

Lee Johnson has earned his chance.

Lansdown needs to back him, and step back.

If he fails with 100% control, then LJ will walk I'd suspect.

If SL won't back him - then Lansdown needs to sell-up, and LJ needs to find a new job.

Most L1 clubs would take him if they had the chance, and I suspect there is a big Championship club with an owner that wants to spend who would consider LJ if he quits.

 

So here we go boys and girls - next year in the Championship (as much as I'd like to think play-offs are a go - they really aren't in truth) - we will either have LJ's well funded hand-picked squad of new players, and some new backroom staff...

Or LJ will have walked and SL will have confirmed his intentions for our club to change hands.

 

Either way - next season shapes up as the one that will define us as a Football Club for years to come.

 

Image result for bristol city players celebrating promotion

 

 

 

 

 

A well thought out post , I don’t totally agree with everything but appreciate the effort .

 I believe that LJ is an intelligent bloke and will already have learned some of what works and that which hasn’t., hence our progress.

 I am sure , like you , that he will not stay at BCFC  if he sees his career being jeopardised . He has made other clubs take notice of his abilities as we approach the last game of this successful season. Who wouldn’t want year on year progression and a media friendly, ambitious young coach to represent them ? 

SL holds the purse strings and it is this man who will dictate further progress on the field or will oversee an impressive fall from grace because we cannot keep on over performing .

Interesting and exciting times ahead.

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15 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

I disagree with quite a few points the OP makes.

 

I agree with some, but disagree with others. 

The simple fact is that it’s not an easy formula to get right. 

Many players do well at some clubs but not at others, simply because they don’t “fit”. The same with managers. 

I think that lots of people forget just how hard this division is. 

If we identify a player who’s almost certain to well at this level, then there are about 15 other clubs along side us, who can just offer them more money. 

Look at the clubs with players that we’d love here, only to be far from promoted yet, with many not even challenging. 

If the solution was as straightforward as it’s made out by some, then everyone would be doing it. Only one club can have each player at a time, and top quality championship level players are hard to come by, even if you can afford them. 

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I think your cost analysis weighs to heavy on fees and doesn't really take wages into account. 

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3 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

I agree with some, but disagree with others. 

The simple fact is that it’s not an easy formula to get right. 

Many players do well at some clubs but not at others, simply because they don’t “fit”. The same with managers. 

I think that lots of people forget just how hard this division is. 

If we identify a player who’s almost certain to well at this level, then there are about 15 other clubs along side us, who can just offer them more money. 

Look at the clubs with players that we’d love here, only to be far from promoted yet, with many not even challenging. 

If the solution was as straightforward as it’s made out by some, then everyone would be doing it. Only one club can have each player at a time, and top quality championship level players are hard to come by, even if you can afford them. 

The belief is that we have a bit of ‘ wriggle ‘ room to pay the wages for a couple of  better quality players .

We are a more attractive prospect now perceived by many as a progressive club where players can enjoy their football.

 

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4 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

The belief is that we have a bit of ‘ wriggle ‘ room to pay the wages for a couple of  better quality players

Therein lies the dilemma. Does that then disrupt the group with the new players of alleged better quality earning a much higher salary than the mere mortals who carried us to at least 8th place in the previous (this) season? 

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16 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

The belief is that we have a bit of ‘ wriggle ‘ room to pay the wages for a couple of  better quality players .

We are a more attractive prospect now perceived by many as a progressive club where players can enjoy their football.

 

By wiggle room, do you mean that as a financial compliance statement, or that unlike some other clubs, we aren't spending £130 on wages for every £100 received in revenue and therefore could spend more?

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46 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

I disagree with quite a few points the OP makes.

 

The bit about "ones for the future" was particularly wrong IMO.

Not even close to £10m spent on those players.

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13 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

The bit about "ones for the future" was particularly wrong IMO.

Not even close to £10m spent on those players.

Fees alone are over 5 mil

Coaching, wages, accomodation, etc etc - it would be close.

Still, nice to see debate being on topic!

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8 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

The bit about "ones for the future" was particularly wrong IMO.

Not even close to £10m spent on those players.

So much incorrect in the OP that I went back to sleep............:facepalm:

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We won’t spend big - why do people think this doesn’t mean Lansdown wants us to get to Prem?

We are edging closer with current strategy and it’s far better than gambling everything and spending big.

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1 minute ago, SX227 said:

Fees alone are over 5 mil

Coaching, wages, accomodation, etc etc - it would be close.

Still, nice to see debate being on topic!

But we would need those things regardless of who we signed.

Coaches, wages etc are all costs we would incur regardless of the players we signed.

 

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1 hour ago, SX227 said:

What an immature,sad, spiteful 'man' you are.

Grow up, you attention-seeking oxygen-thief.

The OP is waaay too long and  full of incorrect statements. Of course I went back to sleep.......:fastasleep:

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8 minutes ago, Robbored said:

The OP is waaay too long and  full of incorrect statements. Of course I went back to sleep.......:fastasleep:

You’ve mentioned that three times now...

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@SX227 I agree with most of what you’ve said. The only bit I can’t comment on in the young ‘uns as the only ones I’ve seen have been Morrell and Semenyo. FWIW I think both are good enough now.

The rest is spot on:

Johnson and his team are good enough and have potential.

Lansdown needs to demonstrate where his focus really rests - BCFC, rugby or simply developing a cash cow in BS3.

Famara on his own doesn’t work. It works better when he has Taylor/Weimann/Semenyo with him to do the running.

Kalas and Webster together are superb. Kelly and da Silva are good in there too. Hunt and Pisano add very little.

Brownhill pushing forward is a threat. Pack needs a proper rest or be replaced.

I’m still thinking Premier League in August. Many will say ******* nuts 😳

@Robbored had to stop reading. He’s of the older generation who needs his rest before daytime telly stats. Or bowls 😂

Sunday will be our day 🤞

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47 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

Therein lies the dilemma. Does that then disrupt the group with the new players of alleged better quality earning a much higher salary than the mere mortals who carried us to at least 8th place in the previous (this) season? 

I’m sure any pros  would welcome better quality teammates to help them improve their status . 

If Messi was to be unveiled as a City player on more money would that disrupt the squad or valorise them ?

The ones who don’t up their game or who react badly will find themselves out the door that is natural progression in any football club , pro or amateur.

City need to be ruthless in their pursuit of excellence if it upsets a few along the way well that’s just too bad.

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40 minutes ago, SX227 said:

Fees alone are over 5 mil

Coaching, wages, accomodation, etc etc - it would be close.

Still, nice to see debate being on topic!

Taylor Moore £2.5m, and that might have even been Euros

Eisa £1.5m, that's £4m, Adelakun went to a tribunal, but pretty sure he was less than £1m.

 

Wages for young players aren't going to be particularly high. For most of the list I expect they are on 1k a week at most, especially the ones who were coming through the academy, which is the bulk of that list- about 15-16 players. That's less than £1m per year, at that level, many of these will have been on lower wage contracts when they were even younger.

 

Also, what classes Bakinson as a failed transfer? He's just won an award at his loan club, whilst getting rave reviews for the majority of the season.

 

Costs of accommodation and coaches will have been there anyway. Bit of a moot point.

 

Edited by JamesBCFC
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2 hours ago, Robbored said:

Jeez..........Ive only just woke up and now think I’ll go back to sleep.............:sleeping:

 

39 minutes ago, Robbored said:

So much incorrect in the OP that I went back to sleep............:facepalm:

 

28 minutes ago, Robbored said:

The OP is waaay too long and  full of incorrect statements. Of course I went back to sleep.......:fastasleep:

Who cares?

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2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Taylor Moore £2.5m, and that might have even been Euros

Eisa £1.5m, that's £4m, Adelakun went to a tribunal, but pretty sure he was less than £1m.

Wages for young players aren't going to be particularly high. For most of the list I expect they are on 1k a week at most, especially the ones who were coming through the academy, which is the bulk of that list- about 15-16 players. That's less than £1m per year, at that level, many of these will have been on lower wage contracts when they were even younger.

Also, what classes Bakinson as a failed transfer? He's just won an award at his loan club, whilst getting rave reviews for the majority of the season.

Costs of accommodation and coaches will have been there anyway. Bit of a moot point.

 

One to watch that lad, could be the next Marv Elliott.

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45 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

By wiggle room, do you mean that as a financial compliance statement, or that unlike some other clubs, we aren't spending £130 on wages for every £100 received in revenue and therefore could spend more?

I mean that the budget can support the project whilst staying within the FFP rules. 

I don’t worry that SL will put the club in danger . LJ  has already spoke about reducing the squad numbers , don’t forget that what we’re running with at the moment is a result of the changes in the loan system and the club didn’t want to find themselves without adequate cover .

This season has seen too many players not getting enough match time and I think LJ is prepared to fill out the squad with some talented youngsters ( on less money ) from the development squad thus releasing some senior pros and freeing up more money for those who remain and the new incoming players.

 

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1 hour ago, Major Isewater said:

The belief is that we have a bit of ‘ wriggle ‘ room to pay the wages for a couple of  better quality players .

We are a more attractive prospect now perceived by many as a progressive club where players can enjoy their football.

 

Yes, I get all that, but it doesn’t change the fact that if we identify a player, use our newly available increase in FFP budget and have a deal ready to sign, there are at least 9 other clubs in the division, plus those what generally have higher budget allowances, who could simply step in and double/triple what we can offer. 

Theres no way that any bud for an established Championship player will escape media leaks, so we are always up against it, while trying to get the players that we’d really like. 

 

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1 hour ago, JoeAman08 said:

Appreciate the post. Disagree about the kids. They are worthy investments. You state about younger playing in prem but they are a different class of young players. Need to look at young players as investments rather than expenditures imo. 

We will get some wrong. We do focus on it too much at times. Also, I have said before and @Davefevs has mentioned we tend to overpay for a lot of them. There are prospects out there that would cost 500k or less that we are not identifying. 

Anyway, there are a few losses in there for sure but I think if you do a cost vs profit chart in the near future that it will be paying dividends. You have to also consider the likes of Brownhill and O’Dowda. They were similar buys who developed quicker than some others. Cost around 1.7m for those two and when sold, combined, will likely be 10m+. It does work but we need to have faith that we will produce a few more gems out of that list

Firstly, @SX227 nice post, lots to agree with and well put together.

A few things:

- getting rid of players you don’t want is probably harder than ever, unless you are talking about letting them go to another club for an amount seriously under their value, or contributing to their wages at their new club, or paying them off like Jens.  We are starting to break the trend of 2+1 contracts, going to mainly 3+1, and in some cases 4 year deals (Webster and Weimann), but there are risks and of course rewards to that approach.  It means a player like Baker aren’t easy to offload, not on best part of £20k per week.  It limits the clubs who can offer the right fee and pay his wages.

- pathway.  Although there are shining lights, I also think there is a bit of lip-service too.  And I think Lee’s “clubs in the bag” approach stifles this, e.g. Marley Watkins.  Admittedly the loan system doesn’t help, but if you have a trimmer squad, do the likes of Vyner and Moore need any more “men’s football” on loan?  If they aren’t good enough, we need to try to move them on, or they need to accept they truly are back-up.  If that means us getting a few quid contribution to their wages by letting them sell themselves on loan, then fine, but let’s not create the illusion they are gonna make it here.  In terms of Vyner and Moore, sat here today, I would keep Vyner, if I had to make a choice.  Moore has not developed as I expected, and I think we need to be careful who we loan our players too, dependent on where they are in their development cycle...and what we are trying to achieve from that loan.

@JoeAman08 - you are right, the ones for the future are out there....they are being identified by the scouts we have out there, but we aren’t taking them.  I’m sure Harry could give you a gurt long list, from Pickford and Maguire to Ollie Watkins and Jarrod Bowen.  All priced much, much less than your Gustav Engvall’s (who wasn’t given a fair crack for whatever reason), and Mo Eisa's of this world.

Progress is being made, last summer was a pretty decent window....but if Lee is gonna be “bold” this summer, it’s an area we need to improve even more.

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7 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

Yes, I get all that, but it doesn’t change the fact that if we identify a player, use our newly available increase in FFP budget and have a deal ready to sign, there are at least 9 other clubs in the division, plus those what generally have higher budget allowances, who could simply step in and double/triple what we can offer. 

Theres no way that any bud for an established Championship player will escape media leaks, so we are always up against it, while trying to get the players that we’d really like. 

 

That’s where Ashton , LJ and company earn their corn, selling the project .

I am sure that wages , generally, at the club will go up and quality experienced pros will be offered a correct package in line with the going rate .

 

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Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

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@SX227  Thanks for taking the time to write a significant post. Those who don't have the attention span to read or the maturity to ignore it are embarrassing, particularly at the age of 65+.

There's a couple of things that I disagree with to some degree. The point about taking a gamble on younger players, whether it is £5m or £10m as debated above, is something I'd like to comment on. This was done over three seasons where our net transfer receipts have been exceptional. We've made somewhere between £30m-£40m in transfer receipts over this period and, without having data to hand, I estimate that the total of all transfers before this period to the date we were established did not add up to this amount. 

The upside to this gamble was huge, in the sense that one or two of the signing could each become £10-£15m players. Conversely, the obvious issue with gambles, there is a downside and sadly few of them look to have paid off. But as mentioned previously, the significant income from Kodjia, Reid, Bryan, Flint and Magnússon has allowed us to set aside a quarter of these receipts to make such gambles. As a result, it isn't really a huge amount lost and, in my opinion, we should continue to make these going forward to continue to reinvest funds. 

Regarding the point about the research and scouting undertook for Djuric, I have no doubt that the analysts will be more than aware of his goalscoring ratio at Cesena/Bosnia and also who he scored against. They have vast amounts of information on each player these days, including a lot of non-footballing data. Players will not just be identified on their current goalscoring ratios, LJ and his team will look to identify dangerous forwards who can increase their return year-on-year and other more than just goals to the team. By recognising these players before they become a 20 goal-a-season striker, they can secure them at a fraction of the price. In my opinion, Djuric was signed as a plan B and to be thrown on if we are chasing a game.  

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

In real life he’d be Nobby Nomates, nobody would chat to him.

He adds nothing to the threads on a regular basis and worse winds posters up .

 I agree with you that the novelty wore off long long ago.

 I am sure that he is a decent , intelligent bloke and regret his stance.

Come on Robbored, change the record.

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Quick question for those who understand these things...

Shelling out 500k on a youth players/development player.... Does that go against FFP or not?

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Bakinson rumoured to be over £500k.  Hinds £300k.....they all start adding up with signing-on and agent fees.

@Robbored perhaps take a look at your posting style and the antagonism it regularly creates.  Is this your real-life persona coming across?  If not, why not think about how you might react to the robbored persona if you had to chat to them in real-life!

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

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11 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

Quick question for those who understand these things...

Shelling out 500k on a youth players/development player.... Does that go against FFP or not?

It does but player registrations, albeit youth or senior player squad expenses, are spread over the life of the contract and impact it through depreciation. 

As an example, if we signed a youth player on a five year detail for £400k plus £100k of agents fees, it would impact it as follows:

(£400k + £100k)/ 5 years = £100k per annum. 

This would reduce our reported profit by £100k a year and are not offset just because they're academy players. However, academy running costs are deductible.

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9 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

So don't open it then.

Simple.

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2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Dave....some posters on here just over exaggerate pretty much everything City related and this thread is a perfect example. Personally I find that this type of thread irritating, especially first thing in the morning!

Im not the only poster on here whose been around City for decades and we’ve witnessed massive ups and dismal lows and to post about the ‘future of our club’ is simply frustrating.....whatever happens in the future is utterly uncertain.....so why try to make predictions? 

Of course having become an established Championship club City are now in a position to push on next season and LJ said yesterday that he’s going to the board with a ‘bold’ proposal to fund his ‘trading’ over the summer. That proposal may well involve as many as seven new signings and will certainly mean some of the existing squad moving on - so plans are in place to seriously push for promotion next season. 

Who knows what will happen should LJ get what he wants this summer but still fails to reach the PL next season?  Perhaps the OP can use his crystal ball and tell us?

 

That is all fine, but why the response you gave?  Ignore, contribute (agreeing or disagreeing) or at least add a pun @Major Isewater!

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I agree with some of the points made and disagree with others. One comment that I think is wrong is: 

“If Lansdown will not spend big (as FFP is firmly now on our side) then there are only 2 reasons.

1) He doesn't want promotion and is intending to sell OR

2) He does not have 100% faith in LJ and the recruitment team”

There is a third reason that SL has stated many times - i e he wants the  club to be self sustaining and he intends to achieve this by bringing in younger players at a reasonably low fee and using the academy . Players can develop and become established first team players and / or be sold at a profit. SL hasn’t indicated any willingness  to change this approach, but we will see in the summer

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1 minute ago, Coxy27 said:

Is that a prediction?

Fact.......Think about it.

Everything is PL ready. Well oiled infrastructure. Top class training facilities at Failand, very decent stadium, decent current squad of players. Decent manager. 

Whats needed now is the support of SL and the board to give LJ the resources he’ll need ready for the next campaign.

 

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On the fees v wages point, fees are amortised.

In accounting and FFP terms it's fine- cash terms we can pay it easily due to or perhaps subject to SL, but regardless of how the deal is structured- loose example maybe 4 year deal £4m-£3m-£3m let's just say for example, but 4 year deal has it down as £2.5m per year on Cost of Amortisation. Spreads the risk, the expenditure- so long as either we have sufficient cash or SL is happy to pay it. If SL decided we needed that extra push and signed Vydra for £10m say in June, on wages of £40k per week- I'm not going to get into agents fees etc, don't have time :laugh: but just the basics. That's £10m + say £2m per year hence an £18m total investment- but in year 1 it appears like a £12m investment.

Appears on balance sheet as £2.5m added to cost of amortisation and £2m added to wage bill. More affordable than it seems! Fee structure is more of a cashflow thing perhaps- pay £4m Year 1, £3m Year 2 and £3m Year 3 let's say. Value when signed £10m, after a year of contract £7.5m, Halfway through £5m, into final year £2.5m- anything over and above that on a linear line is a profit. Anything below a loss- removal of £2.5m from balance sheet amortisation surely helps too though and is a bit of an insurance policy if it doesn't pay off. That's as distinct from a profit though- tidying up exercise or maybe cost reduction?

That's before we even get onto what @JamesBCFC I think it was said, about wages for young players not being a huge amount.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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One thing I can see coming is everyone's definition of 'going for it' will be different and I reckon we'll still see comments come August along the lines of 'This is what Lansdown calls going for it' and the bs calls that he doesn't want promotion even if we bring in a record transfer if we don't go and get someone like Assombalonga even though he's apparently on £35,000 a week.

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4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That is all fine, but why the response you gave?  Ignore, contribute (agreeing or disagreeing) or at least add a pun @Major Isewater!

On here and in life I’ve always said it how it is by being honest. That was reinforced by the work I did and why I was so highly regarded  by those I treated and those I worked with.

Too late in life now to make core changes Dave.

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3 minutes ago, hodge said:

One thing I can see coming is everyone's definition of 'going for it' will be different and I reckon we'll still see comments come August along the lines of 'This is what Lansdown calls going for it' and the bs calls that he doesn't want promotion even if we bring in a record transfer if we don't go and get someone like Assombalonga even though he's apparently on £35,000 a week.

Well this is it.

Lots of people say that we didn't give it that proper push in Jan 2018. The fact was we were close to our limit- we could not. Actually if those people look at our transactions and analyse the accounts for that season, they'll see that we did go for it over the course of the season.

Our highest income perhaps in our history...and our record losses!

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

On the fees v wages point, fees are amortised.

In accounting and FFP terms it's fine- cash terms we can pay it easily due to SL, but regardless of how the deal is structured- loose example maybe 4 year deal £4m-£3m-£3m let's just say for example, but 4 year deal has it down as £2.5m per year on Cost of Amortisation. Spreads the risk, the expenditure- so long as either we have sufficient cash or SL is happy to pay it. If SL decided we needed that extra push and signed Vydra for £10m say in June, on wages of £40k per week- I'm not going to get into agents fees etc, don't have time :laugh: but just the basics. That's £10m + say £2m per year hence an £18m total investment.

Appears on balance sheet as £2.5m added to cost of amortisation and £2m added to wage bill. More affordable than it seems! Fee structure is more of a cashflow thing perhaps- pay £4m Year 1, £3m Year 2 and £3m Year 3 let's say. Value when signed £10m, after a year of contract £7.5m, Halfway through £5m, into final year £2.5m- anything over and above that on a linear line is a profit. Anything below a loss- removal of £2.5m from balance sheet amortisation surely helps too though and is a bit of an insurance policy if it doesn't pay off. That's as distinct from a profit though- tidying up exercise or maybe cost reduction?

That's before we even get onto what @JamesBCFC I think it was said, about wages for young players not being a huge amount.

Unless we change to the Derby method and revalue our players every season!!!  You can imagine at some point, inflated player values (just like their ground!!!) to keep Derby losses down (due to lower amortisation) eventually biting them on their arse.  Can’t wait.

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well this is it.

Lots of people say that we didn't give it that proper push in Jan 2018. The fact was we were close to our limit- we could not. Actually if those people look at our transactions and analyse the accounts for that season, they'll see that we did go for it over the course of the season.

Our highest income perhaps in our history...and our record losses!

Nut. Shell.

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17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Unless we change to the Derby method and revalue our players every season!!!  You can imagine at some point, inflated player values (just like their ground!!!) to keep Derby losses down (due to lower amortisation) eventually biting them on their arse.  Can’t wait.

I wonder how they do that, the whole revaluation thing- seems pretty opaque.

I hope it is independently assessed- in partial defence of Derby and this was my view until their ground bullshit, but unlike others (Aston Villa, Birmingham, QPR maybe, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday) they did sell a lot of good players- Grant, Christie, Hendrick, Hughes, Ince, Vydra and Weimann last 3 seasons. However that partial leeway by me has now evaporated because of their unnecessary IMO ground thing. They should have just sucked it up and if they were close to the limit accepted it for what it was and taken a year or 2 of austerity, of rebuild.

Now I hope they get a lengthy embargo and points deduction for the cynicism alone!

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I wonder how they do that, the whole revaluation thing- seems pretty opaque.

I hope it is independently assessed- in partial defence of Derby and this was my view until their ground bullshit, but unlike others (Aston Villa, Birmingham, QPR maybe, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday) they did sell a lot of good players- Grant, Christie, Hendrick, Hughes, Ince, Vydra and Weimann last 3 seasons. However that partial leeway by me has now evaporated because of their unnecessary IMO ground thing. They should have just sucked it up and if they were close to the limit accepted it for what it was and taken a year or 2 of austerity, of rebuild.

Now I hope they get a lengthy embargo and points deduction for the cynicism alone!

I feel like that's becoming the case for quite a few clubs now!

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4 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

 I feel like that's becoming the case for quite a few clubs now!

ironically though Birmingham were stung by it, they didn't try to obfuscate.

They openly defied through stupidity, naivety, arrogance- a mixture of the 3- but they didn't try any shit stunts like selling ground to themselves or whatever Aston Villa or Sheffield Wednesday have planned.

My favourite fail was QPR- £69m losses under the old rules then simply write £60m exceptional item- how they hoped to get that waved through! 🤣

BACK on topic and I hope we add some star power this summer. Vydra on loan for one- subject to attitude- would do nicely up front IMO. We have some wiggle room- let's use it.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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Feel like a broken record:

Spending big doesn’t increase your chances of success necessarily. If it did then Norwich and Sheffield United wouldn’t be going up. Both of their XIs last Saturday cost less than £5.5m.

Spend smart, not big.

and keep buying for the future

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