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BessexRED

Bristol City - A Big Draw in L1?

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Likely to be a lengthy and boring read if you don't pay much attention to attendances in football, but I was having a discussion on the weekend with a Rovers fan who was speaking about their game with Barnsley on the final day. His claim was that Rovers raise their game when the "bigger" sides come to the Mem (without wanting to overrule his opinion on his own team, I was quick to point out that they lost at home to Sunderland and Pompey) and it had me thinking, if Barnsley are considered a draw in League One then are Bristol City, and if so is that reflected in the attendance figures at games?

I've managed to get hold of the figures needed to look into it. Without making it sound too much like an introduction to a dissertation, my plan is to compare the number of home fans (excluding away fans) at our fixture, and compare that with their average of home fans across the rest of the season and see how we compare from our last season in L1 (14/15). Our average from that season away from was circa 1,360 iirc, which would've had us probably just behind Sheffield Utd in second so to compare just attendances including away fans wouldn't be a fair reflection.

The first number is the amount of home fans in against us, the second is the average number of home games in their season, the third is the percentage increase/decrease from the game against us and their usual average.

Preston - 13,999 (10,157) (+37.8%)
Chesterfield - 8,013 (6,134) (+30.6%)
Swindon - 9,594 (7,459) (+28.6%)
MK Dons - 10,533 (8,479) (+24.2%)
Yeovil - 4,503 (3,892) (+15.7%)
Peterborough - 6,382 (5,732) (+11.3%)
Colchester - 3,568 (3,323) (+7.3%)
Notts County - 4,760 (4,547) (+4.7%)
Gillingham - 5,554 (5,302) (+4.7%)
Sheffield Utd - 19,234 (18,843) (+2.1%)
Crawley - 2,245 (2,208) (+1.7%)
Scunthorpe - 3,128 (3,098) (+1%)
Oldham - 3,676 (3,645) (+0.9%)
Fleetwood - 2,815 (2,837) (-0.8%)
Crewe - 3,963 (4,003) (-1%)
Walsall - 3,635 (3,746) (-3%)
Coventry - 8,094 (8,422) (-3.9%)
Barnsley - 8,339 (8,801) (-5.3%)
Rochdale - 2,324 (2,507) (-7.3%)
Bradford - 11,706 (12,965) (-9.7%)
Doncaster - 5,226 (5,914) (-11.6%)
Port Vale - 3,629 (4,634) (-21.7%)
Leyton Orient - 3,415 (4,386)(-22.1%)

If my maths is right, the results turn out to be that there's a 3.5% increase across the division from their normal home fan crowds to when they play us.

The average number of home fans when we're in town is 6,218, whereas across the rest of the division the average works out to be 5,876.

There are obviously contributing factors in this, such as us having quite a few midweek games due to having rearranged international games that others in the division didn't choose to do, the JPT cup run and people that pick and choose the games they go to probably not going to be prioritising watching their side against us who were winning most games so if you wanted to get a fairer reflection you'd have to do it over 3/4 seasons but I unfortunately can't find the data past this one.

You can draw your own conclusions, though mine would be whilst City are without a doubt one of the bigger clubs in L1 when in the division we're not quite the catch that some of the sides that have been down there in recent years are, Wolves being an example. So that said, Barnsley being a smaller club than us certainly aren't a catch at that level.

If you managed to last this long then fair play, I don't think many will have. :laugh:

Edited by BessexRED
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Read the headline and thought we'd been hit with ffp and relegated!

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9 minutes ago, BessexRED said:

Likely to be a lengthy and boring read if you don't pay much attention to attendances in football, but I was having a discussion on the weekend with a Rovers fan who was speaking about their game with Barnsley on the final day. His claim was that Rovers raise their game when the "bigger" sides come to the Mem (without wanting to overrule his opinion on his own team, I was quick to point out that they lost at home to Sunderland and Pompey) and it had me thinking, if Barnsley are considered a draw in League One then are Bristol City, and if so is that reflected in the attendance figures at games?

I've managed to get hold of the figures needed to look into it. Without making it sound too much like an introduction to a dissertation, my plan is to compare the number of home fans (excluding away fans) at our fixture, and compare that with their average of home fans across the rest of the season and see how we compare from our last season in L1 (14/15). Our average from that season away from was circa 1,360 iirc, which would've had us probably just behind Sheffield Utd in second so to compare just attendances including away fans wouldn't be a fair reflection.

The first number is the amount of home fans in against us, the second is the average number of home games in their season, the third is the percentage increase/decrease from the game against us and their usual average.

Preston - 13,999 (10,157) (+37.8%)
Chesterfield - 8,013 (6,134) (+30.6%)
Swindon - 9,594 (7,459) (+28.6%)
MK Dons - 10,533 (8,479) (+24.2%)
Yeovil - 4,503 (3,892) (+15.7%)
Peterborough - 6,382 (5,732) (+11.3%)
Colchester - 3,568 (3,323) (+7.3%)
Notts County - 4,760 (4,547) (+4.7%)
Gillingham - 5,554 (5,302) (+4.7%)
Sheffield Utd - 19,234 (18,843) (+2.1%)
Crawley - 2,245 (2,208) (+1.7%)
Scunthorpe - 3,128 (3,098) (+1%)
Oldham - 3,676 (3,645) (+0.9%)
Fleetwood - 2,815 (2,837) (-0.8%)
Crewe - 3,963 (4,003) (-1%)
Walsall - 3,635 (3,746) (-3%)
Coventry - 8,094 (8,422) (-3.9%)
Barnsley - 8,339 (8,801) (-5.3%)
Rochdale - 2,324 (2,507) (-7.3%)
Bradford - 11,706 (12,965) (-9.7%)
Doncaster - 5,226 (5,914) (-11.6%)
Port Vale - 3,629 (4,634) (-21.7%)
Leyton Orient - 3,415 (4,386)(-22.1%)

If my maths is right, the results turn out to be that there's a 3.5% increase across the division from their normal home fan crowds to when they play us.

The average number of home fans when we're in town is 6,218, whereas across the rest of the division the average works out to be 5,876.

There are obviously contributing factors in this, such as us having quite a few midweek games due to having rearranged international games that others in the division didn't choose to do, the JPT cup run and people that pick and choose the games they go to probably not going to be prioritising watching their side against us who were winning most games so if you wanted to get a fairer reflection you'd have to do it over 3/4 seasons but I unfortunately can't find the data past this one.

You can draw your own conclusions, though mine would be whilst City are without a doubt one of the bigger clubs in L1 when in the division we're not quite the catch that some of the sides that have been down there in recent years are, Wolves being an example. So that said, Barnsley being a smaller club than us certainly aren't a catch at that level.

If you managed to last this long then fair play, I don't think many will have. :laugh:

Barnsley are ex-Prem and FA cup winners in 1912 , what constitutes a ‘ smaller club than us ‘ ?

 

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10 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

Barnsley are ex-Prem and FA cup winners in 1912 , what constitutes a ‘ smaller club than us ‘ ?

 

"Ex-Prem" means nothing to me — football wasn't created in '92, a better stat is that we have competed in nine top flight seasons compared to Barnsley's one.

They average about 8,000 less home fans than we do, their away support isn't as good as ours when you factor in mileage (see below, credit to SoutheySWFC from 1FF for the table), our ground holds about 4,000 more seats than theirs, the population of Bristol is over double that of Barnsley's so the potential of our fanbase is far greater as evidenced at Wembley when we take 42,000 for a JPT final and they managed less than what we averaged at home to a playoff final back in 2016 etc.

112374162_walkleytable.png.d2e641a3dbae045cd91e97d0f7748c8f.png

Edited by BessexRED
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1 hour ago, hail gus cesaer said:

So inclusion you want us to get relegated so we can on average one of the highest away attendances per mile?

 

That's a Championship table at a glance, no?

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1 hour ago, downendcity said:

Read the headline and thought we'd been hit with ffp and relegated!

Don't, just don't ! EFL have spies and they might think.........."Now that's a plan, George, get me the file on Bristol City."   :shocking:

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2 hours ago, BessexRED said:

"Ex-Prem" means nothing to me — football wasn't created in '92, a better stat is that we have competed in nine top flight seasons compared to Barnsley's one.

They average about 8,000 less home fans than we do, their away support isn't as good as ours when you factor in mileage (see below, credit to SoutheySWFC from 1FF for the table), our ground holds about 4,000 more seats than theirs, the population of Bristol is over double that of Barnsley's so the potential of our fanbase is far greater as evidenced at Wembley when we take 42,000 for a JPT final and they managed less than what we averaged at home to a playoff final back in 2016 etc.

112374162_walkleytable.png.d2e641a3dbae045cd91e97d0f7748c8f.png

FWIW, historic League table I saw a couple of years ago shows us above Barnsley.

One place though- that will have improved the last couple of seasons and I think we are bigger than Barnsley but club size can be subjective.

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42 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Does anyone seriously think we are smaller club than Barnsley 😂

No, is there any capacity in which we are smaller at all other than they've "played in the Prem..."

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To the Gas, Barnsley is a big club. Likewise a trip to Molineux, Bramell Lane, Elland Road or the Stadium of Light is a ‘once in a blue moon’ big day out. Their home and away attendances against these sides reflect this.

As for us I think we’ve spent far too long in the past at L1 level playing other L1 teams to be considered a ‘big draw’ for the majority of L1/L2 sides. 

Playing in the Prem is no indicator of club size. Wednesday and Leeds haven’t been in the top flight for donkeys years but no one could seriously suggest Wigan, Reading or Blackpool are anywhere near the size of those clubs. In their brief visits to the 3rd tier, Weds and Leeds are a genuinely ‘big draw’. We are a pretty big club for L1 but thats It.

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18 hours ago, WAHGS. said:

No, is there any capacity in which we are smaller at all other than they've "played in the Prem..."

Height of manager?

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21 hours ago, WAHGS. said:

No, is there any capacity in which we are smaller at all other than they've "played in the Prem..."

Percentage of the local population that turns out to watch them?

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3 minutes ago, Leveller said:

Percentage of the local population that turns out to watch them?

By that reckoning Burnley are a bigger club than Manchester United you plum.

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I think we're a so-so draw in League One- bigger than many but nothing spectacular.

One off anecdote but I remember a Northampton fan on a cricket forum I used to post on scoffing at that idea- he didn't see us as anything special at League One, but then again this was pre any redevelopment so now maybe. Depends how you judge it too- history, stadia or what?

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1 hour ago, WAHGS. said:

By that reckoning Burnley are a bigger club than Manchester United you plum.

Thanks for the gratuitous insult. Did you notice the question mark at the end of my sentence? It was a genuine question. The population of Barnsley is probably more committed to Barnsley FC than the population of Bristol is to Bristol City. Ever considered that aspect of small town community dynamics?

And yes, Burnley FC is possibly more important to Burnley than Manchester United is, overall, to Manchester. 

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On 20/05/2019 at 11:37, BessexRED said:

Likely to be a lengthy and boring read if you don't pay much attention to attendances in football, but I was having a discussion on the weekend with a Rovers fan who was speaking about their game with Barnsley on the final day. His claim was that Rovers raise their game when the "bigger" sides come to the Mem (without wanting to overrule his opinion on his own team, I was quick to point out that they lost at home to Sunderland and Pompey) and it had me thinking, if Barnsley are considered a draw in League One then are Bristol City, and if so is that reflected in the attendance figures at games?

I've managed to get hold of the figures needed to look into it. Without making it sound too much like an introduction to a dissertation, my plan is to compare the number of home fans (excluding away fans) at our fixture, and compare that with their average of home fans across the rest of the season and see how we compare from our last season in L1 (14/15). Our average from that season away from was circa 1,360 iirc, which would've had us probably just behind Sheffield Utd in second so to compare just attendances including away fans wouldn't be a fair reflection.

 The first number is the amount of home fans in against us, the second is the average number of home games in their season, the third is the percentage increase/decrease from the game against us and their usual average.

 Preston - 13,999 (10,157) (+37.8%)
Chesterfield - 8,013 (6,134) (+30.6%)
Swindon - 9,594 (7,459) (+28.6%)
MK Dons - 10,533 (8,479) (+24.2%)
Yeovil - 4,503 (3,892) (+15.7%)
Peterborough - 6,382 (5,732) (+11.3%)
Colchester - 3,568 (3,323) (+7.3%)
Notts County - 4,760 (4,547) (+4.7%)
Gillingham - 5,554 (5,302) (+4.7%)
Sheffield Utd - 19,234 (18,843) (+2.1%)
Crawley - 2,245 (2,208) (+1.7%)
Scunthorpe - 3,128 (3,098) (+1%)
Oldham - 3,676 (3,645) (+0.9%)
Fleetwood - 2,815 (2,837) (-0.8%)
Crewe - 3,963 (4,003) (-1%)
Walsall - 3,635 (3,746) (-3%)
Coventry - 8,094 (8,422) (-3.9%)
Barnsley - 8,339 (8,801) (-5.3%)
Rochdale - 2,324 (2,507) (-7.3%)
Bradford - 11,706 (12,965) (-9.7%)
Doncaster - 5,226 (5,914) (-11.6%)
Port Vale - 3,629 (4,634) (-21.7%)
Leyton Orient - 3,415 (4,386)(-22.1%)

If my maths is right, the results turn out to be that there's a 3.5% increase across the division from their normal home fan crowds to when they play us.

The average number of home fans when we're in town is 6,218, whereas across the rest of the division the average works out to be 5,876.

There are obviously contributing factors in this, such as us having quite a few midweek games due to having rearranged international games that others in the division didn't choose to do, the JPT cup run and people that pick and choose the games they go to probably not going to be prioritising watching their side against us who were winning most games so if you wanted to get a fairer reflection you'd have to do it over 3/4 seasons but I unfortunately can't find the data past this one.

 You can draw your own conclusions, though mine would be whilst City are without a doubt one of the bigger clubs in L1 when in the division we're not quite the catch that some of the sides that have been down there in recent years are, Wolves being an example. So that said, Barnsley being a smaller club than us certainly aren't a catch at that level.

 If you managed to last this long then fair play, I don't think many will have. :laugh:

Nice bit of number crunching, thanks for sharing it.

Not sure I'd agree with your conclusion though.  Attendance increased above 5% of their average for only 7 clubs.  Of those 7, we were in a promotion fight with 5 of them.  One of the others is a local rival.   The last one (Colchester) only got 200 extra people.  It decreased for 10 clubs - almost half.

Of the other 6 clubs, Sheffield United was opening day of the season.  Gillingham was over Christmas, which usually sees higher attendances.  Oldham, Scunthorpe and Crawley are 30-40 people - a rounding error.  To be fair, Notts County was apparently raining but then it was also a Sunday and they'd won their last two games (plus early season optimism etc).

So to my mind your stats indicate that nobody in League One really sees Bristol City as more significant than anybody else, unless we're competing with them at the top of the table.

Edited by Tom Fleuriot
To cover Sheff Utd, Notts County etc.
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Quick maths. May be wrong!

As a club we have spent more time historically in the top two tiers than bottom two. 

That said in the 38 seasons since relegation from the top tier,  only 14 have been in the second tier. 

So 24 seasons in (now) League One or Two equivalents.

Would you consider someone spending that long in League One an attraction or just someone who fits that level?

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