Is promotion a realistic aim for City?

[reddogkev]

25 minutes ago, Prinny said:

FACT?

We sold our "TOP" players and finished higher last season. And the "TOP" players were replaced directly by players of championship+ quality. Why are you pretending that didn't happen?

Flint replaced by Webster/Kalas on loan. Bryan replaced by Da Silva (of course temporarily as of today). Reid replaced by Weimann. Spot the non championship quality player. Maybe Webster because he's could be better?

It's right to highlight the ineffective signings of Adelukan, Eisa, and Watkins in a discussion about LJs transfer success but you're ignoring the good signings we've made which shows the inherent negative bias you have and the narrative you're trying to create for yourself. Woe is me, we're a selling club with no ambition... That kind of flies in the face of the year on year improvement both on and off the field that's been going on? 

Basically, why are you making things up about the transfers in order to justify a negative viewpoint? Why are you posting this on the 30th of May and not the end of the transfer window when we can see the results?

I totally get that people are still not over some of the football and performances of last year, but if you're taking an overview of the club I genuinely do not understand how you can be negative based on the logic of what's been happening. We've spent the past 5 seasons improving our league position. 1st, 18th, 17th, 11th, 8th. 5 years in a row where we're better than the year before.

 

All very good points, and yep I agree that we have also signed and loaned quality Championship players like you have listed, so I'd say my point there was that we don't seem to bring in enough of them to give a genuine chance of promotion out of a very tough league. 

You must not know me so well on here, over my time on OTIB, trust me when I say I am so far from negative, that word doesn't exist to me!  I am insanely optimistic at times, but at this moment of contemplation, I wonder whether promotion is fair for us to consider.  Clearly, we have no problem gradually improving in the Championship, which suits me fine.  Do you feel that promotion is a realistic goal?

[Laner]

37 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Good question, and in the interest of debate, for me the main reasons are:

1) Selling best players too frequently  (Yes, the money is fantastic value, but if we don't retain Kalas, then a central defence of Webster and Kelly this new season would have been sensational).

2) Signing too many players not of the required standard

3) Unable to recruit the right strike partner for Fammy in the last few transfer windows - despite being in positions of strength.

4) Not enough promotion experience in the management team (i.e zero promotion experience)

5) The financial disparity between ourselves and the wealthier clubs from the Premier League.

What are your reasons to suggest Promotion is realistic for City?

 

Because if Bournemouth can why can't we?

 

[simon uk]

15 minutes ago, Sturny said:

You could argue we failed to fill the most important out of the 3 

You are forgetting marley watkins!

[Sparkz 76]

My honest opinion is that we’re too inconsistent and sporadic in results. Winning 9 in a row then not winning for 5. Being consistent in this league will eventually get you up you would think. Battling parachute payments and massive budgets is tough this league is brutal 

 

[Wanderingred]

50 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Good question, and in the interest of debate, for me the main reasons are:

1) Selling best players too frequently  (Yes, the money is fantastic value, but if we don't retain Kalas, then a central defence of Webster and Kelly this new season would have been sensational).

2) Signing too many players not of the required standard

3) Unable to recruit the right strike partner for Fammy in the last few transfer windows - despite being in positions of strength.

4) Not enough promotion experience in the management team (i.e zero promotion experience)

5) The financial disparity between ourselves and the wealthier clubs from the Premier League.

What are your reasons to suggest Promotion is realistic for City?

 

I would base it on the success of teams like Burnley, Huddersfield and Sheff Utd. None of them were thwarted by any of the points you mentioned, albeit it is getting more difficult.

[Up The City!]

For large parts of the season we were actually pretty crap. How long did we go without a home win again? 

Had we not of experienced shocking referee decisions in numerous games then we could be in the premier League right now. 

[simon uk]

1 minute ago, Up The City! said:

For large parts of the season we were actually pretty crap. How long did we go without a home win again? 

Had we not of experienced shocking referee decisions in numerous games then we could be in the premier League right now. 

Referee decisions cant be blamed for us not going up, we win some, we lose some of those, but overall, if you finish 8th and have spells of not winning at home, thats pretty much where you deserve to be.

lj got the most he could out of the squad, but flogging pack and famara every game without credible alternatives left us just short when it came to it.

[Prinny]

22 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

All very good points, and yep I agree that we have also signed and loaned quality Championship players like you have listed, so I'd say my point there was that we don't seem to bring in enough of them to give a genuine chance of promotion out of a very tough league. 

You must not know me so well on here, over my time on OTIB, trust me when I say I am so far from negative, that word doesn't exist to me!  I am insanely optimistic at times, but at this moment of contemplation, I wonder whether promotion is fair for us to consider.  Clearly, we have no problem gradually improving in the Championship, which suits me fine.  Do you feel that promotion is a realistic goal?

49 Teams have played in the Premier League. It's not a closed shop. It is a realistic goal.

Is it realistic that we make another step forward this season? To me it is. I think that it's likely we continue to trade talent and gradually improve while also increasing our spend moderately. We have to get the signings and trades right but the recent history suggests we are getting those decisions more correct than not hence climbing up the league. 

I think based on the recent body of evidence it is realistic to think we'll improve and improving we means we challenge. Will it happen? Of course we can't say. To say it's not realistic I don't think is correct. Many other teams have done what we're trying to do, and we're trending upwards.

[1bristolcity]

35 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Since when does finishing a good 8th equal promotion?  Stupid point, ha ha!

I wasn't going to spell it out for you but since you seem to be still in the dark...we have made progress in league positions the last three seasons, given we were 8th last , why on Earth  should we not consider promotion 'realistic'?

Actually you say finishing top 6 is 'very unlikely'...and yet for a large part of last season it seemed nailed on. 

Just don't get your logic. 

[AppyDAZE]

2 hours ago, Robbored said:

Would you rather City were comfortable with mid table mediocrity? 

I enjoyed the run in last season being in with a shout right up to last match.

Me too. I'm just saying we weren't just missing out on promotion. We just missed out on a play off place. There's a difference 

[1bristolcity]

39 minutes ago, Sturny said:

Yeah but we weren’t close to promotion were we.

Waffle as always 

Plonker fest is to-day?  

[phantom]

28 minutes ago, Laner said:

Because if Bournemouth can why can't we?

 

But we don't have the finances behind us like Bournemouth have @Laner

[cidered abroad]

When we had our best eleven on the pitch and all playing well, we looked good.

Problems are firstly, getting consistency of performance from everyone and secondly, getting better depth of quality in the squad. I believe we're at least a couple of seasons away from that.

However, I'll take promotion if it comes.

[Sturny]

19 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said:

I wasn't going to spell it out for you but since you seem to be still in the dark...we have made progress in league positions the last three seasons, given we were 8th last , why on Earth  should we not consider promotion 'realistic'?

Actually you say finishing top 6 is 'very unlikely'...and yet for a large part of last season it seemed nailed on. 

Just don't get your logic. 

Nobody is arguing about the progress  But the statement that finishing 8th is considered nearly promoted is daft. Do you consider Middlesbrough nearly promoted? If you do, then okay we'll agree to disagree. Hardly anyone outside Bristol CIty considers us a team that were "nearly promoted" last season. 

Teams like Derby/West Brom/Leeds were nearly promoted, arguably some more than others. 

You're not getting the logic because you're not reading. 

[downendcity]

2 minutes ago, phantom said:

But we don't have the finances behind us like Bournemouth have @Laner

What Bournemouth have/had  is an owner prepared to ignore ffp rules and put two fingers up to the EFL accordingly.

What we do have is an owner  who would not be prepared to do that, but who has recognised the club's shortcomings financially, and especially as far as ffp is concerned, and has worked hard to build the club's financial structure and commercial income in order to put the club in a stronger financial position, which in turn will help us  to challenge at the top of the championship, even if takes longer than some fans would like.

[Fpcity]

We're only 2-3 quality players, striker, midfielder, right back away from getting into the top 6 and if we can sort out out consistency. 

[1bristolcity]

10 minutes ago, Sturny said:

Nobody is arguing about the progress  But the statement that finishing 8th is considered nearly promoted is daft. Do you consider Middlesbrough nearly promoted? If you do, then okay we'll agree to disagree. Hardly anyone outside Bristol CIty considers us a team that were "nearly promoted" last season. 

Teams like Derby/West Brom/Leeds were nearly promoted, arguably some more than others. 

You're not getting the logic because you're not reading. 

You are banging on about nearly promoted, I never said that...I thought we wouldn't make it even in January, but there is no reason we can't next season, or the season after that, considering how we are improving.For me the main thing that hold us back is the likes of this type of thinking , I don't expect red tinted glasses, but I do expect a sense of where we are.

[Sturny]

7 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said:

You are banging on about nearly promoted, I never said that...I thought we wouldn't make it even in January, but there is no reason we can't next season, or the season after that, considering how we are improving.For me the main thing that hold us back is the likes of this type of thinking , I don't expect red tinted glasses, but I do expect a sense of where we are.

You replied to my post earlier talking about that statement, so I just assumed you understood it's context. Guess not..

 

[reddogkev]

17 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said:

You are banging on about nearly promoted, I never said that...I thought we wouldn't make it even in January, but there is no reason we can't next season, or the season after that, considering how we are improving.For me the main thing that hold us back is the likes of this type of thinking , I don't expect red tinted glasses, but I do expect a sense of where we are.

The main thing that will hold us back from promotion is selling our best players after 1 or 2 years.  For example, if the club had resisted Cardiff and kept Reid, then we would have been very close to promotion this season - if Bobby had scored at least another 15 goals, top six and then who knows would have been assured.

[bcfc01]

4 hours ago, reddogkev said:

I've been thinking for a while about our expectations and standing in the game.  We have come on leaps and bounds in recent years and thankfully we are an established Championship outfit, but are we a viable promotion contender?

Are we a team likely to even make the top six?  After a few days of contemplation, I'd say it is very unlikely.

 

All teams will be strengthening their squads not just us (or at least trying to do so) and the likes of WBA, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Fulham, Derby, Middlesbrough, Stoke, Notts Forest, and some others will have the edge over us in bringing in quality due to parachute monies and/or status.

At this time I'd put all the above in front of us next season with another few more joining them and if we can be in the mix at the top end I'll be pleasantly surprised. But it will require a number of quality additions not just signing the Chelsea loanees and performances and subsequent results that are a lot more consistent than last season. 

Some say that next season the Championship looks a bit easier than last (I hear that most seasons) but the reality is that it is getting stronger year on year and keeping up is getting tougher and more expensive.

Top 2 - no chance at all, zilch, nada

Top 6 - extremely difficult as per above narrative and therefore unlikely imo

Top Half - reasonable expectation

Relegation - no chance

 

 

[WayOutWest]

2 hours ago, reddogkev said:

 

1) Selling best players too frequently  

It's important to note this is actually a club policy.

Good scouting, combined with a structure of player progression and development is embedded into the club's business model. 

It's working. Yes it's hard to let our talent pool move on, but this is how you force yourself everyday to work hard. 

Scouting - identify talent

Coaching - improve player

Player - game time shop (window)

Mark Ashton - negotiate best deal

So the cycle continues. Expect CoD Webster Brownhill to move on for vastly more than we paid for them. 

You can't do that with journeyman players looking for final pay day. The club have got it right. 

Good topic OP

Stevo 

[EnderMB]

I think the playoffs are more than reasonable. If we continue to progress we can definitely finish in a good enough space in the next few years, and barring any managerial changes or wobbles in form, we can definitely have a crack at it.

My problem with pushing for the playoffs is that you're condensing an entire season down to a knockout competition, and if you spend years pushing for the playoffs, only to fall at the final hurdle you're not much better off than you were before.

IMO, we need to be aiming for automatic promotion, and that would mean that we need to be in a position we were can say within the first ten games of the season, we are one of the best teams in this league, and we have the quality and depth to sustain a push towards Premier League football.

We're actually one of the few teams in the Championship that I feel could do well in the Premier League. We have a long-term plan, a rich owner, an idealistic coach that wants to manage at the highest level, and a young squad that would be eager to show their ability at this level. If we were to reach the Premier League, I can see Lansdown having one last hurrah and giving LJ all the first-choice players he needs to stay up and compete long-term, regardless of cost. We won't do a Fulham and spunk money up the wall on a whole team rebuild, but LJ will get Premier League quality where it is needed.

All of that is fantasy-land, though We need to be in a position to be one of the best teams throughout the whole season first, and that means starting well, and maintaining that form to the end of the season.

[pillred]

5 hours ago, reddogkev said:

I've been thinking for a while about our expectations and standing in the game.  We have come on leaps and bounds in recent years and thankfully we are an established Championship outfit, but are we a viable promotion contender?

Are we a team likely to even make the top six?  After a few days of contemplation, I'd say it is very unlikely.

Of course, it's what we all clamour for as long-standing City fans, but is it fair to expect this for the club?  Quite often, people on OTIB and in general conversation talk about our aims for the top six and promotion.  I myself have the same ambition, but I've stopped for a moment to ask what that is based on.  We haven't been in the top flight since the early 70's and don't pay big money for the good players.  We don't keep our top players for more than a season or two at this level, and it wouldn't surprise me if we sold Webster and Brownhill in the not too distant future. 

Based on the fact we often sell our top players and don't tend to replace with Championship quality (Adelukan, Eissa, Watkins, for example), it seems an unreasonable expectation for City to push for the promotion spots.  Until we stop selling our quality players and find a way to get them to stay at City, sadly, promotion will always be an unlikely objective.

Still, this is no reason to be downbeat; the challenge of competing in a highly unpredictable Championship league, peppered with quality teams and exceptional players, will always be an exciting one.  And even though it seems unreasonable to expect promotion with the current model of Bristol City, it doesn't mean it's impossible.

What are your thoughts?  Agree with my comments, or disagree? 

 

 

We were relegated from the top flight in the eighties, well 1980 to be exact.

[pillred]

2 hours ago, Sturny said:

Nobody is arguing about the progress  But the statement that finishing 8th is considered nearly promoted is daft. Do you consider Middlesbrough nearly promoted? If you do, then okay we'll agree to disagree. Hardly anyone outside Bristol CIty considers us a team that were "nearly promoted" last season. 

Teams like Derby/West Brom/Leeds were nearly promoted, arguably some more than others. 

You're not getting the logic because you're not reading. 

As a team that the BBC described as overachieving, they said we were in with a chance of making the play offs until the last game, that's not promotion but a lot closer than the vast majority of the other teams.

[Berkshire Red]

3 hours ago, INCRED said:

Selling our best players for good fees is ok providing the funds are reinvested in similar or better players

Bryan/Dasilva - Yes

Flint/Webster - Yes

Reid/Weimann - No

2 out of 3 ain’t bad

Hopefully this summer the club are bold and recruit wisely

Arguably, Reid could have been a one season wonder to an extent. He only got 5 goals this season, albeit in a poor squad. Weimann on the other hand has not had a bad season and has largely been played out wide not through the middle, still scoring 9 in 36. Making an £8 mill profit on the deals I think isn't a bad deal

[cidered abroad]

2 hours ago, paul_fox said:

We're only 2-3 quality players, striker, midfielder, right back away from getting into the top 6 and if we can sort out out consistency. 

Agreed but as I said earlier, not enough depth in the squad yet. We need someone in each position, banging on the first team door to be let in. It takes time, especially if we're relying on Academy products.

[INCRED]

1 hour ago, City18 said:

Arguably, Reid could have been a one season wonder to an extent. He only got 5 goals this season, albeit in a poor squad. Weimann on the other hand has not had a bad season and has largely been played out wide not through the middle, still scoring 9 in 36. Making an £8 mill profit on the deals I think isn't a bad deal

I wasn’t saying Weimann didn’t have a bad season, just comparing like for like with BR who scored 20 goals in the previous season 

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 hours ago, wendyredredrobin said:

Promotion will only be a possibility if we can get a centre forward who can do things like run, jump, score goals and hold his own against strong defenders.  Those qualities don't come cheap though.

The desirable forward doesn't have to be physical- goals, movement and technical ability as well as pace or a decent workrate of course can suffice. The physicality thing while important, isn't a deal-breaker.

Vydra on loan would tick a fair few boxes- lacking in physicality though. Maupay certainly would...Adams would be great, Gayle- the last 3 are out of price range though. The first? May not be.

[Mr Popodopolous]

13 minutes ago, INCRED said:

I wasn’t saying Weimann didn’t have a bad season, just comparing like for like with BR who scored 20 goals in the previous season 

Do you factor in assists, the 3-4  wrongly disallowed goals, the fact Weimann played more than one position and indeed wasn't unlike Reid an ever-present?

Now that is no slight on Reid- he was great for us, and actually arguably under and wrongly used at Cardiff- he got some assists there too. Tammy who everyone raves about had similar underlying stats to Reid in PL. For Swansea, we can also take Cardiff.

Also, 3 of Reid's goals were penalties- and with a penalty you have a much more realistic chance of scoring- Weimann so far as I recall had zero pens.

[INCRED]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Do you factor in assists, the 3-4  wrongly disallowed goals, the fact Weimann played more than one position and indeed wasn't unlike Reid an ever-present?

Now that is no slight on Reid- he was great for us, and actually arguably under and wrongly used at Cardiff- he got some assists there too. Tammy who everyone raves about had similar underlying stats to Reid in PL. For Swansea, we can also take Cardiff.

Also, 3 of Reid's goals were penalties- and with a penalty you have a much more realistic chance of scoring- Weimann so far as I recall had zero pens.

I didn’t, just a plain old straightforward goals scored comparison