Johnson's final gamble? Deadline Day reviewed

[RUSSEL85]

It’s a very good read. My issue now is Johnson needs to pick a team and stick with it. Teams that get promoted or finish play offs tend to have the same team each week. I don’t think making multiple changes each week will get us near top 6 this season, yes we will have disgruntled players at times but the manager needs to manage this. Interesting season ahead.

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

Very well-written piece, in an era when many journalists couldn’t write decent prose if they were paid to (oh yes, they are).

[petehinton]

Way I see it is this roll of the dice could go very right, or very wrong. Big gamble to change/sell pretty fundamental parts of the squad from one game to the next, and replace them with unknown talents. LJ was only saying last week to not pin expectation on Messenga, seems like now will be hard not to as he’s sold Pack to replace him with...

[Grey Fox]

58 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

I'd love to know whose idea it was to spend £8m on an 18yo who has only played a handful of first team games.

I find it difficult to believe that LJ would have chosen to spend that much of his funds that way. It does strike me as an MA decision, following the vision set by SL. Here's a little diamond for you Lee, polish him up and make us a whacking great profit please.

All well and good but Lee can only lose in that scenario. I find it hard to see that the player will contribute significantly this season. If you're looking to finish top 6 this season surely this isn't the most effective way to spend that money.

Frank Lampard's?

[Notbarrymanc]

1 hour ago, robin_unreliant said:

I'd love to know whose idea it was to spend £8m on an 18yo who has only played a handful of first team games.

I find it difficult to believe that LJ would have chosen to spend that much of his funds that way. It does strike me as an MA decision, following the vision set by SL. Here's a little diamond for you Lee, polish him up and make us a whacking great profit please.

All well and good but Lee can only lose in that scenario. I find it hard to see that the player will contribute significantly this season. If you're looking to finish top 6 this season surely this isn't the most effective way to spend that money.

Massengo cost £3m according to GmcG

[cidered abroad]

1 hour ago, ScottishRed said:

Very good read.

My fear is that by the time this new team ‘gels’ we will be consigned to a mid table finish and I doubt SL will accept that.

You have to assume that LJ and MA have made these calls based on the budget and, of course, the money from sales.

Some of the new lads sound exciting, but it will take time and patience - be very interesting to see the team sheet tomorrow afternoon.

With so many changes in personnel and possibly tactics, my fear is that we will struggle to make it mid table.

I know I will get slagged for that comment. We still have players who like Pack and Paterson were never going to take us to new, higher levels. But we appear to have recruited some who are better equipped to push us on from mid table. That is if they bed in very quickly.

 

[Offside]

Good read. Echoes my feelings about events yesterday. 

This does seem to be a crucial season for LJ. Yes we’ve lost Webster and missed out on our top striker targets, but we have also spent heavily. 

Regarding the changes to our squad, I worry that Pack’s influence will be missed, but on the other hand our playing style had started to feel stale so maybe rejuvenation like this is what was needed. 

[city1983]

1 hour ago, BCFC Richard said:

Agreed, he spent £30m but we raised more than £34m in sales. So yes we have spent more than ever but also raised the funds to do that through sales. 

we also have a bloated squad and rather large wage bill.

A lot is made about our large fees we've managed to bring in over the last 3 seasons or so.  But we've brought in a huge amount of players in that time and a large amount of them are flops and we've not managed to shift them all on. Out of all the large fees recouped only webster is a Johnson signing, the rest either came through our academy or like Kojia were already here.

I have been hugley anti johnson in the past, but keeping all bases covered I currently sit somewhere from pro johnson to on the fence. I see that we have progressed each season in terms of position and points total. But at a time when a lot of championship sides are cutting their cloth he has been hugley backed and i have to say if we don't make the playoffs minimum this year i think he'll be given the bullet. 

[ohhhshauntaylor]

8 hours ago, The Exiled Robin said:

My take on the overall summer transfer window, including today's shocks and movements - it's been bold one way or another, that's for sure!

http://theexiledrobin.org/2019/08/johnsonsgamble/

Nail. On. Head. 

Great piece, and shows how we have massively gambled. I don’t for 1 second believe all this was all planned back in early June. 

Kalas, JD, Bentley, Rowe, Szmodics look to me like the ones who were identified as coming in, the rest all seem so left field and like a gamble. 

Afobe has become more appealing to me after sleeping on it. 

I’d love to be proved wrong, but Nagy and Messengo have to slot straight in to a fast, aggressive league, and neither of them have played anywhere near enough competitive games in the last 18 months to give me confidence that’ll happen. 

I believe Pack will be missed, he did so much that went unnoticed and having been a main stay for 5 years, and Captain on Sunday I can imagine this was always the plan with him. 

The sheer volume of ins and out since LJ took over I would image to be as high as anyone, and He has said multiple times that he has final say on all dealings in and out- so no excuses from here LJ! 

See you on Saturday boys- 3 points will make the shock all much better! 

 

[Johnny Musicworks]

I believe once LJ knew that he could trade up more rapidly thanks to the 2 big sales then he knew that would mean Marlon and Fams days were numbered.  Yes Fam is still here but his role will probably reduce.

The Pack/Brownhill axis has determined our play (since Korey) and hasn’t given us enough flexibility. I think LJ wants our midfield to be more fluid and Packs movement and positioning prevents that. Fam restricts the forwards in much the same way. Eliasson, O’Dowda and our strikers need better movement and service around them. Palmer will be key to the new system as he has more movement but on Sunday seemed restricted to staying in certain channels rather than floating. Brownhill has had to stay central alongside Pack in the axis whereas with the new guys coming in he will have better cover. Pato always appeared to be skilful but not able to link play up. 

We are sadly going to have to wait for things to gel and see if Nagy is the one to take control now. Not everything will run smoothly and as others have said it could go disastrously wrong. This is LJ being bold and for him will probably be the make or break season. Failure to reach the play offs will not in my opinion be what decides that as much as our team starting to develop an identity in how we play and control  games. No more trying to contain teams but instead controlling possession and dominating games. 

[Colemanballs]

Interesting article but you might want to reconsider thr colour scheme. The grey background made it very hard to read on my computer although it was fine on the phone. The yellow text on grey was pretty much illegible on both.

[Red Exile]

27 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

With so many changes in personnel and possibly tactics, my fear is that we will struggle to make it mid table.

I know I will get slagged for that comment. We still have players who like Pack and Paterson were never going to take us to new, higher levels. But we appear to have recruited some who are better equipped to push us on from mid table. That is if they bed in very quickly.

 

Far from it, I agree with you. I'd hope we'd do better than mid-table but integrating so many new players who are new to the Championship is a massive challenge. Contrast that with Warnock buying a 'ready to go' Marlon Pack...short term maybe but he knows what it takes to assemble a side that can boss this league. The issue - which will doubtless be debated for months on here if things don't click immediately - is whether we care as supporters. I'm excited about watching a side develop. But in Lansdown's interview with Geoff before the Leeds match he was very clear about what we should expect stating that 'we start the season hoping to be in the top six at the least and if we can do the top two even better, and that's what our aim is.'

(source: https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/every-word-steve-lansdown-discusses-3175634)

That seemed very optimistic at the time, more so after the abject Leeds performance and even more so now. But he only has himself to blame if people start to ask questions. 

[Baldyman]

12 minutes ago, ohhhshauntaylor said:

Nail. On. Head. 

Great piece, and shows how we have massively gambled. I don’t for 1 second believe all this was all planned back in early June. 

Kalas, JD, Bentley, Rowe, Szmodics look to me like the ones who were identified as coming in, the rest all seem so left field and like a gamble. 

Afobe has become more appealing to me after sleeping on it. 

I’d love to be proved wrong, but Nagy and Messengo have to slot straight in to a fast, aggressive league, and neither of them have played anywhere near enough competitive games in the last 18 months to give me confidence that’ll happen. 

I believe Pack will be missed, he did so much that went unnoticed and having been a main stay for 5 years, and Captain on Sunday I can imagine this was always the plan with him. 

The sheer volume of ins and out since LJ took over I would image to be as high as anyone, and He has said multiple times that he has final say on all dealings in and out- so no excuses from here LJ! 

See you on Saturday boys- 3 points will make the shock all much better! 

 

I’m hoping that Afobe will perform for us as Dele did some years ago . Won’t score for fun but will link up far better and create space for others . Could the new arrivals also herald a move away from one up top ? Weiman/ Taylor as a pairing with Beni and Dave on the bench if we need to change anything ? 

[keflav]

Great read and good objective view..

I think we will finish mid table this season, think its going to take time for the new lads to gel (think some of the will need to be thrown in the deep end straight away). so not expecting much for the next 3-4 games, but hopefully the quality that has been seen in them will start to shine through. Again its going to be a season of ups and downs my great hope is that we sort out our dismal home form (playing 2 up front at home would help) we would have made the playoffs last season if our home form was better. I know its a cliché line but we got to start making it fortress Ashton gate and make it a place opposition teams don't like to come to, this is easier said than done but hopefully can be achieved. as said LJ has been backed (maybe not getting all he wanted?) so the pressure will be on him this season if it goes horribly wrong this could we be his last, its now time to try and shake the Streaky Lee tag otherwise it could be his last with us. Pressure also got to be on MA as hes the one all the deals go through so he cant hide away from it either with £30 mill spent we need it to be right or SL could be looking at him too..

Am a little disappointed we did not replace Webster, but now one of the other CB needs to step up to the mark. Can Moore prove himself, feel he will only get better with more game at this level. Baker Can he stay fit long enough to replicate his good form of a few years back, can we Rely on Wright to perform consistently enough weekly? Whilst I liked Pack cant say I'm devastated he's gone as it seemed to me for some reason he was undroppable by LJ, even though his form had taken a massive dip and seemed way to slow for the championship (what that statement come back to bite me in the ass when he's Cardiff best player this season...) think it would been best to keep him around until the new lads had bedded in (his experience around the team would have helped), but I guess he saw the writing on the wall with the new lads coming in and jumped at the chance to play along side his best but again (don't blame him but ******* Cardiff).

Paterson Can see why he was allowed to go as we have other players to now play in his position and his inconsistency was greatly annoying for all of us, Seems strange it was a loan move can only guess was to get him off the wage bill and like pack he could see his playing time dwindling down.

We all know Afobe was not the forward we were after initially (not going to go into who and perceived poor behaviour by others)  Hoping we can get Afobe back to the player he was a few years back when he was banging them in for fun in the championship, think he will also help all the forwards form many reasons. he's someone to support Fammy up top (if LJ plays 2 up top, please do so LJ), will help semenyo with his experience and can give good support to Weimann if he again plays him up top. Surprised Taylor did not go out but this could be because of the lateness of Afobe deal, but I am glad he stayed around his a different option he get in teams faces and is always busy (something other of our forwards don't do)

On paper we do have what looks like a team of good player its all a bit of a shock to us with all the lateness of it all (personally was hoping any business would have been done weeks ago!) lets hope the team can prove this season we can surprise a few people with how we play and not be just a good team on paper and prove we can do it on the pitch.. its gonna be an interesting season one way or another.... 

 

[BCFC Rich]

34 minutes ago, city1983 said:

we also have a bloated squad and rather large wage bill.

A lot is made about our large fees we've managed to bring in over the last 3 seasons or so.  But we've brought in a huge amount of players in that time and a large amount of them are flops and we've not managed to shift them all on. Out of all the large fees recouped only webster is a Johnson signing, the rest either came through our academy or like Kojia were already here. 

Not trying to argue that LJ raised the money or that all his signings have been a success. What I'm saying is if we had sold £30m worth of talent with a previous manager I've no doubt we would have reinvested it. I think LJ happens to be in charge when thst has happened. 

[ScottishRed]

48 minutes ago, Offside said:

Good read. Echoes my feelings about events yesterday. 

This does seem to be a crucial season for LJ. Yes we’ve lost Webster and missed out on our top striker targets, but we have also spent heavily. 

Regarding the changes to our squad, I worry that Pack’s influence will be missed, but on the other hand our playing style had started to feel stale so maybe rejuvenation like this is what was needed. 

I agree.

I may get some flack for this but I think last year we were in a false position - the away form and results were fantastic but at home we were turgid and predictable.

It surprised me that we stayed in the race for so long.

The big question to be answered, well two questions actually, is are the new signings up to it and will they gel quickly enough.

Time will tell - it is certainly 'bold' and I am not being sarcastic.

[bcdc]

1 hour ago, petehinton said:

Way I see it is this roll of the dice could go very right, or very wrong. Big gamble to change/sell pretty fundamental parts of the squad from one game to the next, and replace them with unknown talents. LJ was only saying last week to not pin expectation on Messenga, seems like now will be hard not to as he’s sold Pack to replace him with...

Surely not: that’s Nagy’s role.

[BobBobSuperBob]

26 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

Not trying to argue that LJ raised the money or that all his signings have been a success. What I'm saying is if we had sold £30m worth of talent with a previous manager I've no doubt we would have reinvested it. I think LJ happens to be in charge when thst has happened. 

Not sure money spent is the issue/ focus  tbh ,

No manager in our history has been allowed to make somewhere near 60 signings in 3 1/2 years 

 

[LondonBristolian]

1 hour ago, petehinton said:

Way I see it is this roll of the dice could go very right, or very wrong. Big gamble to change/sell pretty fundamental parts of the squad from one game to the next, and replace them with unknown talents. LJ was only saying last week to not pin expectation on Messenga, seems like now will be hard not to as he’s sold Pack to replace him with...

I'm wondering if Walsh is "replacing" Pack in so far as much as having a central midfielder with a range of passing. Not that I'm expecting him to start every week but I reckon both Nagy and Massenga are in to do slightly different roles and there won't be a like for like midfield replacement. I reckon that 4-2-3-1 we played on Sunday and much of last season was shown up for its flaws. I can see a slightly different shape. 

[LondonBristolian]

14 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Not sure money spent is the issue/ focus  tbh ,

No manager in our history has been allowed to make somewhere near 60 signings in 3 1/2 years 

 

I'd genuinely be interested to see how our player turnover compares to other clubs. I wonder if it is unique to us or an emerging trend in football. 

EDIT:

Had a quick look. Didn't find an answer but did find that for the last four or five seasons we've hovered around the midpoint for the number of players used. Slightly higher than some clubs but not exceptionally so. Obviously players used is not the same as number of players coming in and out, and doesn't account for the players we sign but never use, but I do wonder whether the number of signings LJ has brought in is more to do with the fact that's what clubs do now rather than unique to us.

At the same time, the fact is this summer has been significant signings at significant prices. Even taking into account player sales, he has to be under pressure to deliver. 

[Red-Robbo]

I'm cautiously optimistic. Lee has pulled some rabbits out of a hat before - for example, last season worked out better than I thought it would. Then again, being a long-term City fan does tend to crush expectations out of you! 

IF it goes badly wrong,  it could well be his final gamble though. Lansdown may be friendly with the Johnsons, but folk that know him have noted he ran his business on results not sentiment.

After not quite reaching the promised land, I remember Gary J casting about and bringing lots of people in, many foreign players unused to English football, and cohesion and discipline suffered.

Let's hope Lee's gamble is more canny than his dad's.

[TedBrist0l77]

its going to come down to how well the new signings settle ... young players in a new country could struggle and Afobe really is a hit or miss chance ...

if they settle and it goes well its minimum play offs .... if they dont it could be a struggle 

[Phileas Fogg]

Not related to the article, but I think I preferred the transfer window when it shut on August 31st.

Feels like a bit of a mad rush now, and it benefits teams to test things out for a few weeks and see what works and what doesn't.

Feels like there is too short of a gap between players returning for pre-season and the transfer window shutting meaning that clubs don't have enough time to make well considered decisions on players. This applies particularly to young players going out on loan (ie Nketiah).

 

[Red Skin]

I wonder whether the decision to ditch Pack in favour of Nagy and Massengo is all about speeding up our attacks.

I liked Pack and his passing range was good, but his lack of pace always limited his ability to beat a player and break the lines.   Against a well organised defence (as we often face at home) finding gaps with a pass is almost impossible, you need players that can run with the ball past an opponent to disrupt things.

Losing Webster was massive in hindering this.  With the absence of an obvious like for like replacement (Moore a possible) it will fall on Nagy and Massengo to beat players and then feed a more mobile strike force.

[bcfcnick]

I think it's been a good transfer window but the left side of defence remains a potential issue.

LJ has had a lot to spend but he's played a major part in getting the best out of players resulting in the many millions to spend by maximising the transfer value of Joe Bryan, Aden Flint, Lloyd Kelly, Adam Webster and especially Bobby Reid.  

The two central midfielders, right back and striker look good recruits in an inflated transfer market.  Szmodics and Palmer will bring goals and assists to the team if played behind Afobe rather than pushed out wide which is where Elliason should be given his crossing ability.

Given how tight our defence was last year it's ironic that this is probably the greatest area of concern for this season.  We've been conceding too many goals pre-season and against Leeds and, whilst it is early days, we regularly beat premier teams in the last couple of seasons in our cup runs, so losing 5-0 to Palace and then conceding three against Leeds and Forest Green Rovers was a wake-up call.

I agree that Pack needed to be moved on but he won a lot of aerial duals and with the loss of Webster and Delsiva being so small, then hopefully we can compete aerially and against set pieces.   Diedhiou also defends well against set pieces and, almost inevitably, will not be playing so many games.

Desilva is so classy on the floor and does better in the air for his height than most would but I would have liked to see us keep Cameron Pring who is six foot plus and shares duties with JD just as Lloyd Kelly did last season. He looks to have everything needed to be another academy success and had a great game for Wallsall.  It's worth looking at Brian Tinnions twitter video highlights on him - did well at the back and going forward.  I'd say he would have been a better left back cover than Rowe but he can be recalled in January if needed.

LJ looks to have the players to succeed but the trick will be picking them in a formation that gels.  If he can crack the conundrum of playing attractive attacking football without conceding too many goals then it should be an enjoyable season. 

[BCFC Rich]

1 hour ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Not sure money spent is the issue/ focus  tbh ,

No manager in our history has been allowed to make somewhere near 60 signings in 3 1/2 years 

 

I'd say it doesn't seem to be crazy compared with other clubs especially if you consider the size of the squad inherited, and the fact part of our system seems to now be buying/taking a chance on young talent and relying on  % of them working. 

LJ has undoubtedly been incredibly lucky timing wise - particularly the sale of Kojia which freed up funds. But he has also been lucky that our academy has started to produce quality players that he can use and/or sell. 

But I think any manager that came in at this time would have been offered the same opportunity provided we kept making progress. Where he was lucky was on our record loosing streak, I have little doubt anyone else would have gone at that point, but ultimately I think sticking with him did pay off. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

16 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

I'd say it doesn't seem to be crazy compared with other clubs especially if you consider the size of the squad inherited, and the fact part of our system seems to now be buying/taking a chance on young talent and relying on  % of them working. 

LJ has undoubtedly been incredibly lucky timing wise - particularly the sale of Kojia which freed up funds. But he has also been lucky that our academy has started to produce quality players that he can use and/or sell. 

But I think any manager that came in at this time would have been offered the same opportunity provided we kept making progress. Where he was lucky was on our record loosing streak, I have little doubt anyone else would have gone at that point, but ultimately I think sticking with him did pay off. 

Havnt got any problem with being given the opportunity Rich and its great backing 

but

If as a head coach , you have a clear plan I’m not sure you need to go thro the turnover or acquisition of those numbers to suddenly then largely or part rip it up and  nigh on start again 3 1/2 years in 

it may be a upgrade in personnel , some signs on / promise about those players look really good , let’s hope so .

What it should mean if that’s the case,  is a significantly improved side

 

[BCFC Rich]

29 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Havnt got any problem with being given the opportunity Rich and its great backing 

but

If as a head coach , you have a clear plan I’m not sure you need to go thro the turnover or acquisition of those numbers to suddenly then largely or part rip it up and  nigh on start again 3 1/2 years in 

it may be a upgrade in personnel , some signs on / promise about those players look really good , let’s hope so .

What it should mean if that’s the case,  is a significantly improved side

 

I think the number of players in makes it feel more like ripping it up than we actually are. I would imagine we'll have same back five as opening day against birmingham 4 of them were here last season. Brownhill will start, probably Wieman too.and probably Fammy. That would be 8 players staying the same and 3 new - 7 of those were here last season and all had full preseason. Other players will be phased in as and when deemed ready.  It's a big overhaul but it's won't be as dramatic as some people are suggesting. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

1 minute ago, BCFC Richard said:

I think the number of players in makes it feel more like ripping it up than we actually are. I would imagine we'll have same back five as opening day against birmingham 4 of them were here last season. Brownhill will start, probably Wieman too.and probably Fammy. That would be 8 players staying the same and 3 new - 7 of those were here last season and all had full preseason. Other players will be phased in as and when deemed ready.  It's a big overhaul but it's won't be as dramatic as some people are suggesting. 

New players in key positions down through the spine

Our , in cement use of MP , through his whole tenure to date , and playing out through him , changed (How Nagy settles and effects pivotal for me)  

A whole new look to our midfield set up , possibly / probably 

Id say it’s a fairly significant change and a big ask to expect it all to click quickly !

 

 

 

 

[Murraysrightplum]

Camaraderie? Was he the Italian kid?