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Post Window League Predictions and Team Insights


And Its Smith

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Now that the window has closed, we know the squads that will be involved this season.  Any early predictions on top six or bottom three?  One of the hardest seasons to predict and that is coming off of a year where two of the more unfancied teams filled the automatic places.  

I am going for the following.  Please add any views on any teams such as particular players you are excited to see or any that you think I have got wildly wrong!  

1. Fulham - doubts over Scott Parker but on paper they have by far the best and deepest squad in the league.  The signings of Reid and Arter late in the window added even more.  They have strengthened in all areas apart from defence and although it was at the back that let them down last season they do have some excellent defenders and I don't see it being a problem at this level.  Pre-season has apparently been pretty average so it will be interesting. I don't think they will be scared to replace Parker if they feel the need.  

2. Leeds - showed what they can do at Ashton Gate last weekend and the signing of Nketiah means they don't have a weakness really.  As long as they don't burn out again I fancy them to be top 3 at least and think they will just about do it.  White looks an upgrade on Jansson and they crucially kept hold of Kalvin Phillips.  

3. West Brom - had a good squad last season which was led by two average managers.  Bilic will be good at this level I think and will play quite a simple but effective game plan much like he did at West Ham.  They have lost Gayle and Rodriguez but I don't think that matters too much with Zohore and Austin joining for a bargain total of £12m.  Bilic will get them to become more of a team where as last year it was more about individual talent. Expect big things from Rakeem Harper this season

4. Cardiff - a Warnock team will never be far away.  They have kept a decent amount of last seasons team together and then bought a new spine to the club in Flint, Vaulks/Pack and Robert Glatzel.  The success of Glatzel will go a long way to determining where they finish.  I don't know much about him other than he is big and strong and Warnock's number one target in the window.  Expect to see the usual Cardiff style which is annoyingly successful! 

5. Bristol City - after the craziest City window of all time, it is near on impossible to predict where we will finish.  On paper we should play great football and I just hope we can keep it together at the back.  I've been a massive fan of Taylor Moore for a while but it is strange to think that how he performs will go a long way to deciding how successful we are.  Only he can play in a similar style to Webster.  Who would have thought he would be so important one month ago?  

6 Middlesborough  I've seen a lot of people predict low finishes for Boro but I don't see it that way.  Steve Gibson usually gets his managers correct and Boro hardly ever finish lower than 8th.  Jonathan Woodgate would have been a carefully considered appointment.  Boro will play with freedom this season and with the Pulis shackles off I think they will do well. They haven't spent much but shrewd signings like Dijksteel and Browne will give them energy.  Lewis Wing is a big player for them and despite last week's result I would expect them to still be tight at the back

7. Derby   - Philip Cocu is an interesting appointment and he has wasted no time in clearing out quite a few players.  They have lost their strong contingent of young loans like Mount and Wilson but still have a fair bit going forward.  The signings of Matt Clarke and Bielik at the back will improve them hugely.  Clarke will be one of the standout centre backs in the league this season no doubt.  Going forward Tom Lawrence and Mason Bennett should be top drawer as well

8. Brentford - about as hard to predict as Bristol City.  Have lost their best striker and best defender in the summer but Jansson and Jensen look like good signings.  A lot of their business has been done in the foreign market so hard to assess.  Importantly they kept hold of Benrahma and if Ollie Watkins can replace Maupay centrally effectively then they will have a good season.  They are probably the most exciting going forward and remain a team that everyone should be keen to watch.

9. Stoke - Nathan Jones simply has to start well for the fans not to be straight on his back calling for his sacking.  It's been a very busy summer for the Potteries and they have managed to get a lot of dead wood out of the door as well.  Nick Powell and Lee Gregory are very affective signings and a lot of their buys are hard workers.  Given time I think Jones will do very well at Stoke but will he get it?

10. Huddersfield - Jan Siewert will be trying to change The Terriers style of play and he is a big hit with their fans despite little success so far.  Lost Mooy and Billings which is a massive blow but Trevor Chalobah is a good loan in and they still have Jonathan Hogg in midfield.  Mbenza is an expensive signing from overseas so it will be down to him and the superb Karlan Grant to get the goals.  Also with the likes of Pritchard in their ranks I think they will do okay but expect a slow start.  

11. Preston - I wonder if Preston fans get bored with continuous mid table finishes.  Losing Robinson is a blow but Andre Green is a great replacement and Philip Bauer is an excellent free transfer from Charlton at the back.  They continue to manage to keep the likes of Ben Pearson and Browne when surely bigger teams should be taking them.  

12. Reading - I can see them improving a fair bit on last season and should get off to a much better start.  Could easily be outsiders for a play off push but I have gone for a casual safe mid table spot.  Lots of late business has got their fans very excited indeed.  George Puscas is an interesting signing, £7m from Inter Milan and if Jose Gomes can find a way for him to link with Joao then they could be a dangerous side.  Packed with talent, it wouldn't be massive shock if they finished higher than this. 

13. Sheff Wed - some good last minute business got them up my prediction league with Bates, Murphy and Luongo signing on deadline day.  Still have a caretaker manager in charge though and Lucas Joao could be a big miss for them/

14. Notts Forest - one of the harder teams to predict.  I've seen a fair few tipping them for top 8 but with a new manager from overseas and the biggest (not in a great way) squad in the league I don't think it will be plain sailing for Forest.  They have added well with the likes of Jenkinson and Sow but it just all comes down to how their manager takes to the league and squad.  Really tough to say. 

15. QPR - after a messy season under Steve McLaren they should be a lot more consistent under Mark Warburton.  Lots of ins and outs for Rangers and they haven't spent a penny on the players joining so might not be the easiest of seasons but their manager should be able to get them to near enough mid table. 

16. Swansea - they have lost a very good manager and three of their best players without really replacing them so this could be a season of anything for Swansea.  They usually appoint pretty well so will be intrigued to see how Steve Cooper does.  I am a massive fan of Sam Surridge and really thought we should have been in for him.  I think he will have a cracking season replacing Oli McBurnie. 

17. Wigan - probably the best window for those sides not expected to finish top half.  Keiffer Moore is a great signing for £2.5m and at that price I am not sure why we didn't get him.  Jamal Lowe, Antonee Robinson, Joe Williams, David Marshall and Dujon Sterling complete their best buys.  Other than Nick Powell and Reece James they haven't lost anyone and I expect Paul Cook to get them beating a fair few of the top sides this season.

18. Blackburn - a squad clearly made by Tony Mowbray.  Functional, hard working but pretty one dimensional, Dack aside, and cannot see them finishing much higher than 15th.  

19. Birmingham - it wouldn't surprise me if Birmingham were in a relegation dogfight come January, changed their manager and then pulled out of it.  They seem all over the place with their squad and have lost Adams and Jota.  Dan Crowley looks a great signing though and I think they will be okay.  

20. Millwall - Lee Gregory will be a big miss but I really like the business they have done over the summer.  They have strengthened across the team and players like Alex Pearce, Bodvarsson and Connor Mahoney are good signings at the level from which Millwall operate.  Jake Cooper is vital for them at the back and they should be okay. 

21. Charlton - a lot of free transfers in and out but I think they will just about have enough.  Lyle Taylor up front will get goals and Tom Lockyer is a good signing at the back.  I really like Bowyer from a motivational and tactical point of view and despite little backing from the owners I think he just about achieve safety. 

22. Barnsley - I am a bit baffled by their strategy.  The Tykes have lost three of their best players and replaced them with what looks like average players, Luke Thomas aside.  We know that Woodrow is not good at this level and they have replaced Keiffer Moore with a cheap player from overseas.  They will probably be defence first and they have managed to keep McGeehan who will be vital for them but I think they will just fall short.  

23. Luton - a really poor summer window for Luton.  Lost their two best players in Justin and Stacey and have made a lot of free transfer signings of mainly players that are lower end Champ/higher end League one level.  Callum McManaman, Izzy Brown and the like will probably not be good enough for Graeme Jones, who has always been an assistant manager,  and I expect them to go down. 

24. Hull- a very odd window for The Tigers.  They have managed to keep hold of their best players, Bowen, Grosicki and Irvine but have also added next to nothing to their squad.  A few players that are not up to this level of football have come in like Honeyman, Eaves and Maginnis and their are holes all over the pitch.  Grant McCann might prove me wrong and they could easily finish 18th I guess but I have them as this years soft touch. 

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34 minutes ago, Frenchay Red said:

Great club by club appraisal. But you didn't mention the Rooney factor for Derby (or the Paterson one ?)

Good point on Rooney. Not sure it will make a massive difference. Joins in January and is well past his best. Glad he has come though as will be good to see him play at this level 

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Great work RD, thanks.

Going to be a tough division, really a lot of equality from place 3 till about 14/15.

I’d say there’s three tiers in the division, Fulham, Leeds and West Brom at the top and a class above.

Upper tier, in no order:

Us, Boro, Cardiff, Brentford, Derby, West Brom, Sheff Wed, Huddersfield, Blackburn, Forest, Reading, Preston, Swansea, QPR, Wigan, Stoke

Lower tier:

Barnsley, Luton, Millwall, Charlton, Birmingham

Playoffs could easily be any three from the big tier plus whoever misses out from the top. Can’t see anything other than three from those bottom five going down, probably Barnsley, Millwall and Luton.

My predictions would be

Fulham as Champions, Leeds promoted.

Playoffs: West Brom, Cardiff, Derby, Sheff Wed.

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Excellent write up, worthy of being in the written press somewhere!

fulham on paper should blow everyone away., but as evidenced by the goal they conceded ladt week, where bryan didnt cover himself in glory, they still have a soft underbelly and could be got at. Leeds are going to be hard to beat,, would be quite happy to see ntekiah struggle to settle and not fit in there.

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I’m not as confident of contesting the play off positions as I was a few days before the start of the season. I worry we are gambling on too many unknowns and particularly with reference to Pack we have negated a steadying experienced footballer. Was also hoping / expecting more in the forward positions except for one stellar season at Wolves Afobe has produced little and is not regarded as a worker in a press

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On 09/08/2019 at 19:13, RedDave said:

Now that the window has closed, we know the squads that will be involved this season.  Any early predictions on top six or bottom three?  One of the hardest seasons to predict and that is coming off of a year where two of the more unfancied teams filled the automatic places.  

I am going for the following.  Please add any views on any teams such as particular players you are excited to see or any that you think I have got wildly wrong!  

 

1. Fulham - doubts over Scott Parker but on paper they have by far the best and deepest squad in the league.  The signings of Reid and Arter late in the window added even more.  They have strengthened in all areas apart from defence and although it was at the back that let them down last season they do have some excellent defenders and I don't see it being a problem at this level.  Pre-season has apparently been pretty average so it will be interesting. I don't think they will be scared to replace Parker if they feel the need.  

2. Leeds - showed what they can do at Ashton Gate last weekend and the signing of Nketiah means they don't have a weakness really.  As long as they don't burn out again I fancy them to be top 3 at least and think they will just about do it.  White looks an upgrade on Jansson and they crucially kept hold of Kalvin Phillips.  

3. West Brom - had a good squad last season which was led by two average managers.  Bilic will be good at this level I think and will play quite a simple but effective game plan much like he did at West Ham.  They have lost Gayle and Rodriguez but I don't think that matters too much with Zohore and Austin joining for a bargain total of £12m.  Bilic will get them to become more of a team where as last year it was more about individual talent. Expect big things from Rakeem Harper this season

4. Cardiff - a Warnock team will never be far away.  They have kept a decent amount of last seasons team together and then bought a new spine to the club in Flint, Vaulks/Pack and Robert Glatzel.  The success of Glatzel will go a long way to determining where they finish.  I don't know much about him other than he is big and strong and Warnock's number one target in the window.  Expect to see the usual Cardiff style which is annoyingly successful! 

5. Bristol City - after the craziest City window of all time, it is near on impossible to predict where we will finish.  On paper we should play great football and I just hope we can keep it together at the back.  I've been a massive fan of Taylor Moore for a while but it is strange to think that how he performs will go a long way to deciding how successful we are.  Only he can play in a similar style to Webster.  Who would have thought he would be so important one month ago?  

6 Middlesborough  I've seen a lot of people predict low finishes for Boro but I don't see it that way.  Steve Gibson usually gets his managers correct and Boro hardly ever finish lower than 8th.  Jonathan Woodgate would have been a carefully considered appointment.  Boro will play with freedom this season and with the Pulis shackles off I think they will do well. They haven't spent much but shrewd signings like Dijksteel and Browne will give them energy.  Lewis Wing is a big player for them and despite last week's result I would expect them to still be tight at the back

7. Derby   - Philip Cocu is an interesting appointment and he has wasted no time in clearing out quite a few players.  They have lost their strong contingent of young loans like Mount and Wilson but still have a fair bit going forward.  The signings of Matt Clarke and Bielik at the back will improve them hugely.  Clarke will be one of the standout centre backs in the league this season no doubt.  Going forward Tom Lawrence and Mason Bennett should be top drawer as well

8. Brentford - about as hard to predict as Bristol City.  Have lost their best striker and best defender in the summer but Jansson and Jensen look like good signings.  A lot of their business has been done in the foreign market so hard to assess.  Importantly they kept hold of Benrahma and if Ollie Watkins can replace Maupay centrally effectively then they will have a good season.  They are probably the most exciting going forward and remain a team that everyone should be keen to watch.

9. Stoke - Nathan Jones simply has to start well for the fans not to be straight on his back calling for his sacking.  It's been a very busy summer for the Potteries and they have managed to get a lot of dead wood out of the door as well.  Nick Powell and Lee Gregory are very affective signings and a lot of their buys are hard workers.  Given time I think Jones will do very well at Stoke but will he get it?

10. Huddersfield - Jan Siewert will be trying to change The Terriers style of play and he is a big hit with their fans despite little success so far.  Lost Mooy and Billings which is a massive blow but Trevor Chalobah is a good loan in and they still have Jonathan Hogg in midfield.  Mbenza is an expensive signing from overseas so it will be down to him and the superb Karlan Grant to get the goals.  Also with the likes of Pritchard in their ranks I think they will do okay but expect a slow start.  

11. Preston - I wonder if Preston fans get bored with continuous mid table finishes.  Losing Robinson is a blow but Andre Green is a great replacement and Philip Bauer is an excellent free transfer from Charlton at the back.  They continue to manage to keep the likes of Ben Pearson and Browne when surely bigger teams should be taking them.  

12. Reading - I can see them improving a fair bit on last season and should get off to a much better start.  Could easily be outsiders for a play off push but I have gone for a casual safe mid table spot.  Lots of late business has got their fans very excited indeed.  George Puscas is an interesting signing, £7m from Inter Milan and if Jose Gomes can find a way for him to link with Joao then they could be a dangerous side.  Packed with talent, it wouldn't be massive shock if they finished higher than this. 

13. Sheff Wed - some good last minute business got them up my prediction league with Bates, Murphy and Luongo signing on deadline day.  Still have a caretaker manager in charge though and Lucas Joao could be a big miss for them/

14. Notts Forest - one of the harder teams to predict.  I've seen a fair few tipping them for top 8 but with a new manager from overseas and the biggest (not in a great way) squad in the league I don't think it will be plain sailing for Forest.  They have added well with the likes of Jenkinson and Sow but it just all comes down to how their manager takes to the league and squad.  Really tough to say. 

15. QPR - after a messy season under Steve McLaren they should be a lot more consistent under Mark Warburton.  Lots of ins and outs for Rangers and they haven't spent a penny on the players joining so might not be the easiest of seasons but their manager should be able to get them to near enough mid table. 

16. Swansea - they have lost a very good manager and three of their best players without really replacing them so this could be a season of anything for Swansea.  They usually appoint pretty well so will be intrigued to see how Steve Cooper does.  I am a massive fan of Sam Surridge and really thought we should have been in for him.  I think he will have a cracking season replacing Oli McBurnie. 

17. Wigan - probably the best window for those sides not expected to finish top half.  Keiffer Moore is a great signing for £2.5m and at that price I am not sure why we didn't get him.  Jamal Lowe, Antonee Robinson, Joe Williams, David Marshall and Dujon Sterling complete their best buys.  Other than Nick Powell and Reece James they haven't lost anyone and I expect Paul Cook to get them beating a fair few of the top sides this season.

18. Blackburn - a squad clearly made by Tony Mowbray.  Functional, hard working but pretty one dimensional, Dack aside, and cannot see them finishing much higher than 15th.  

19. Birmingham - it wouldn't surprise me if Birmingham were in a relegation dogfight come January, changed their manager and then pulled out of it.  They seem all over the place with their squad and have lost Adams and Jota.  Dan Crowley looks a great signing though and I think they will be okay.  

20. Millwall - Lee Gregory will be a big miss but I really like the business they have done over the summer.  They have strengthened across the team and players like Alex Pearce, Bodvarsson and Connor Mahoney are good signings at the level from which Millwall operate.  Jake Cooper is vital for them at the back and they should be okay. 

21. Charlton - a lot of free transfers in and out but I think they will just about have enough.  Lyle Taylor up front will get goals and Tom Lockyer is a good signing at the back.  I really like Bowyer from a motivational and tactical point of view and despite little backing from the owners I think he just about achieve safety. 

22. Barnsley - I am a bit baffled by their strategy.  The Tykes have lost three of their best players and replaced them with what looks like average players, Luke Thomas aside.  We know that Woodrow is not good at this level and they have replaced Keiffer Moore with a cheap player from overseas.  They will probably be defence first and they have managed to keep McGeehan who will be vital for them but I think they will just fall short.  

23. Luton - a really poor summer window for Luton.  Lost their two best players in Justin and Stacey and have made a lot of free transfer signings of mainly players that are lower end Champ/higher end League one level.  Callum McManaman, Izzy Brown and the like will probably not be good enough for Graeme Jones, who has always been an assistant manager,  and I expect them to go down. 

24. Hull- a very odd window for The Tigers.  They have managed to keep hold of their best players, Bowen, Grosicki and Irvine but have also added next to nothing to their squad.  A few players that are not up to this level of football have come in like Honeyman, Eaves and Maginnis and their are holes all over the pitch.  Grant McCann might prove me wrong and they could easily finish 18th I guess but I have them as this years soft touch. 

I think you've nailed it on Birmingham.

They were poor. Maybe not going down poor, but really poor. 

In the first half they were gladly allowing us to take our time on the ball in defence and too far into their half. They only seemed to click in to gear when the ball was around their box.

They paid us the kind of respect that we paid Leeds, which is odd considering we had four debutants, an unfamiliar formation and were coming off a chastening defeat.

Their delivery was as bad as ours, except without a Palmer to retrieve the situation, and he big man up top was their best player.

In normal circumstances that's a team you'd want to get 6 points from. Their fans should be worried if that game is anything to go by.

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On 09/08/2019 at 20:09, RedDave said:

Good point on Rooney. Not sure it will make a massive difference. Joins in January and is well past his best. Glad he has come though as will be good to see him play at this level 

Not sure I'd count Rooney as 'well past his best' at this level

Will be interesting to see how he gets on. Think he'll rip this league a new one

Great write up though. Better than most I've read online ?

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