City v Reading (H) - What Can We Expect

[Davefevs]

Taken from Josh Williams, Reading Post writer (with some additional bits added in):

How do they line-up:

A right old mix based on Jose Gomes’s early games.  Williams expects the line-up below in Swift’s absence.  Ultimately I’ve not seen much of Reading, so not a lot to add.

 

The Players:

Much made of Swift’s loss due to suspension below, but some familiar names too:

Liam Moore - ex-City loanee under Cotts in 15/16 who suffered hernia issues.  Been mainstay of Reading back 4 since arriving.

Michael Morrison - ex-Charlton and Brum CB signed on a free in the summer as Brum, being under embargo, couldn’t extend his contract.  Good ball winner and threat in our box too.

Antony Yiadom - ex-Barnsley RB allegedly been on our radar historically.  Got a good all round game but prone to lapses of concentration.

Ovie-Ejaria - Liverpool loanee, and a very, very good player.  Involved in the incident that ended Korey’s season and why he remains out still, not that it was Ejaria’s fault, Korey slipped making the challenge.

Andy Rhinamoto - homegrown player who looked really good in the away game last season.  Lots of energy and can play too.

Yakou Meite - Former PSG “B” and Sochaux loanee who is a real handful on his day.  Both games last season ended abruptly with hamstring strains, but will be a threat tomorrow.

George Puscas - Romanian international signed from Inter for £7m.  Very good scoring record before arrival, but only flashes so far.

Lucas Joao - signed in the summer amid speculation that City were after him.  Started season well, but on bench recently during run of games without a win. 

From Josh Williams:

John Swift is the player in question, with various footballing websites ranking him near the top in terms of ratings so far. For Swift to be involved at the top despite his team's current standing in the table, he must be posting strong underlying performance numbers.  However, the 24 year-old was sent off this week against Fulham, having received his second yellow card in just the 20th minute.minute.  José Gomes will have to cope without the star man for the upcoming contest with Bristol City, so how may he adjust?  Firstly, let's identify Swift's impact to determine the extent of the loss.

In terms of the basics, Swift has scored two goals as well as registering four assists, despite playing in central midfield. Those are notable figures considering his role in Gomes' side, and the fact that six losses have been suffered so far.  Swift is averaging a scoring contribution every 145 minutes based on his showings, and he's also shooting frequently. 44 central midfielders have amassed over 600 minutes so far in the Championship, with Swift in seventh place for shots taken per 90 minutes.  In addition, he also manages to find the target frequently, posting a better accuracy percentage than all of those above him who take more shots, including Eberechi Eze and Mateusz Klich.

Also, based on those 44 central midfielders, only two are averaging more dribble attempts per 90, with those being Eze and Ovie Ejaria.  The 24 year-old seems to be having a very impressive season based on his numbers, as he's evidently a scorer who takes plenty of shots, while also dribbling and creating for others.  The latter, in terms of supplying teammates with chances, is captured by his Expected Assists (xA) output.  xA offers an insight into the likelihood of a chance being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a player deserved an assist or not, regardless of whether the chance was scored.  Of the group of 44 midfielders, Swift's xA per 90 places him top. It's worth noting that the English talent takes most set-pieces for his team, so his figure may be influenced somewhat by the free deliveries that he's hitting into the penalty box, but nevertheless, he's still clearly a crucial asset for his side.

Swift is also third on the list for through passes per 90, which indicates that he looks to play teammates in behind opposing defences more often than most, and he's fourteenth for passes to the final third per 90.  He's presenting the image of a player who's able to play in central midfield yet influence proceedings in an attacking sense at the business end of the pitch.  Replacing his output won't be easy, but a change in formation may be explored.

The Portuguese manager has favoured 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2 this season, with the former in particular remaining as a legitimate option despite Swift's absence.  Ejaria is a player of interest, as although he's different to Swift, the pair hold certain similarities. The youngster is skillful and capable of dribbling, playing incisively and operating in tight spaces.  He may be instructed to perform as the team's no.10 in the 4-2-3-1 shape, with his main weakness being scoring.  Ejaria tends to shoot much less than Swift, and he's scored only three goals in his last 2,000 Championship minutes. His output may have been influenced by his role, but nevertheless, it would be unreasonable to expect him to find the net.  As a consequence, the scoring would have to be provided from elsewhere, with Lucas Boye on the left and Yakou Meite on the right.  The former is right-footed, whereas the latter is left-footed, which means the pair should be inclined to drive inwards towards goal rather than staying near the touchline.

Boye's threat this season hasn't been particularly notable, with only six shots taken in the league so far, but Meite certainly appears to offer enough danger based on his numbers by shooting almost three times as frequently.  Pele and Andy Rinomhota could then fulfil largely defensive and controlling roles as a duo behind the offensive quadrant, with the overall formation pictured below.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how Gomes will approach Swift's absence, but there are several adjustments he can make based on the qualities he's losing as well as what certain other players offer.

[Roger Red Hat]

We can expect a draw!

[BigTone]

4 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

We can expect a draw!

We need nothing less than a win. We can't keep drawing if we want to progress.

[RedLionLad]

I reckon we'll take all 3 points quite easily.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Think they're actually one of those who are better than their League position suggests- at least personnel wise. Possibly management too, given that they finished last seasons strongly under Gomes and really he did well to keep them up.

So I am somewhat surprised to see them with only 8 points from 10 games so far! Where's Miazga, seem to recall he was quite decent for them last year?

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, BigTone said:

We need nothing less than a win. We can't keep drawing if we want to progress.

I’m normally of the philosophy that no game us easy and you can’t expect 3 points in any game....but I insist on a win tomorrow

@Mr Popodopolous might be back from injury tomorrow.

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, BigTone said:

We need nothing less than a win. We can't keep drawing if we want to progress.

Agreed- not so sure it'll be as easy as people think though.

Must win though, to make a good week a notable one- and hopefully not quite enough fitness for Kalas and Nagy so they can rest up over the next fortnight and avoid being called up at this stage of recovery and be in the best shape for Luton away.  

[Super]

We can expect another struggle at home.

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed- not so sure it'll be as easy as people think though.

Must win though, to make a good week a notable one- and hopefully not quite enough fitness for Kalas and Nagy so they can rest up over the next fortnight and avoid being called up at this stage of recovery and be in the best shape for Luton away.  

Both called up, Kalas called up today.

Nagy suspended for first game though.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Both called up, Kalas called up today.

Nagy suspended for first game though.

Thanks.

That's disappointing, they clearly are not fully fit for us yet and haven't been match fit since their respective layoffs in August- clearly- yet both called up??

I understand that internationals can take priority and trying to stop them playing for their country isn't a goer- both from regulations but also it isn't right, but neither is this!

[Super]

29 minutes ago, RedLionLad said:

I reckon we'll take all 3 points quite easily.

I'm not even actually sure of the last home game where we took 3 points easily. QPR was a struggle this season.

[Wanderingred]

One thing we can definitely expect is crap away support. They always bring less than half what we take there.

Bar a freak season in 16-17, this lot have been perennial strugglers for a few years. Would be very disappointed with anything other than 3 points.

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thanks.

That's disappointing, they clearly are not fully fit for us yet- clearly- yet both called up??

I understand that internationals can take priority and trying to stop them playing for their country isn't a goer- both from regulations but also it isn't right, but neither is this!

Once bitten twice shy.

LJ was quite keen on Nagy joining up with Hungary in previous window, as he thought he’d come back with a bit of match-time under his belt.

He was supposedly monitored, but whether we were given duff info, if we weren’t diligent enough I don’t know.  I suspect we will be pushing to make sure he is fit this time.  Not sure the mechanics of this, not sure our physio can be there holding his hand?

Re Kalas.  Hasn’t been a regular starter since the 5-0 v England

[OneTeamInBristol]

Early goal and we should pick up 3 points. 

Boost that Swift isn’t available for them. 

[Jerseybean]

We can also expect not to be able to watch the game on Robins TV https://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/no-livestream-for-royals-visit/

Anybody able to suggest an alternative stream for overseas bods like me please? 

[ExiledAjax]

We expect Reading, the copy and paste lads think we're hosting Brentford in an immediate return fixture.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Have we gone back in time, to match played on Christmas Day, return on Boxing Day!

That website is brilliant...I should read it more often!

Does anyone proof this stuff?

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Have we gone back in time, to match played on Christmas Day, return on Boxing Day!

That website is brilliant...I should read it more often!

It's the second week in a row they've made this exact same mistake. How long does it take to proof read a 200 word article?

Sorry, I've hi-jacked the thread. Great work as ever @Davefevs Reading aren't a team I've seen much of Interesting to hear about this Ejara kid. Ejara v Massengo the battle to watch out for? Clash of the wonderkids.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's the second week in a row they've made this exact same mistake. How long does it take to proof read a 200 word article?

Sorry, I've hi-jacked the thread. Great work as ever @Davefevs Reading aren't a team I've seen much of Interesting to hear about this Ejara kid. Ejara v Massengo the battle to watch out for? Clash of the wonderkids.

Cheated a bit as used the Reading equivalent of Gregor!!

I like to go to the game a bit prepared, some kits are poor for seeing the numbers, so I want to try and know each player before the game.

[spudski]

Reading...anyone else find this fixture the least desirable? Hopefully we spank them.

[Wanderingred]

6 minutes ago, spudski said:

Reading...anyone else find this fixture the least desirable? Hopefully we spank them.

Yep, such a boring soulless club. Can't think of a duller fixture in this division.

[22A]

1 hour ago, RedLionLad said:

I reckon we'll take all 3 points quite easily.

Look on the Reading forum and most of their fans think City will win as well.

[Rossi the Robin]

Speaking to a Reading mate, their defence is not confident and will fall apart if they sit back

Might be better for us if they attack, expect a 4-3 win to us 

[RedLionLad]

3 hours ago, 22A said:

Look on the Reading forum and most of their fans think City will win as well.

It's just my opinion. I think we"ll be too good for Reading to contain. I fancy AW to score a couple.

[mozo]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Taken from Josh Williams, Reading Post writer (with some additional bits added in):

How do they line-up:

A right old mix based on Jose Gomes’s early games.  Williams expects the line-up below in Swift’s absence.  Ultimately I’ve not seen much of Reading, so not a lot to add.

 

The Players:

Much made of Swift’s loss due to suspension below, but some familiar names too:

Liam Moore - ex-City loanee under Cotts in 15/16 who suffered hernia issues.  Been mainstay of Reading back 4 since arriving.

Michael Morrison - ex-Charlton and Brum CB signed on a free in the summer as Brum, being under embargo, couldn’t extend his contract.  Good ball winner and threat in our box too.

Antony Yiadom - ex-Barnsley RB allegedly been on our radar historically.  Got a good all round game but prone to lapses of concentration.

Ovie-Ejaria - Liverpool loanee, and a very, very good player.  Involved in the incident that ended Korey’s season and why he remains out still, not that it was Ejaria’s fault, Korey slipped making the challenge.

Andy Rhinamoto - homegrown player who looked really good in the away game last season.  Lots of energy and can play too.

Yakou Meite - Former PSG “B” and Sochaux loanee who is a real handful on his day.  Both games last season ended abruptly with hamstring strains, but will be a threat tomorrow.

George Puscas - Romanian international signed from Inter for £7m.  Very good scoring record before arrival, but only flashes so far.

Lucas Joao - signed in the summer amid speculation that City were after him.  Started season well, but on bench recently during run of games without a win. 

From Josh Williams:

John Swift is the player in question, with various footballing websites ranking him near the top in terms of ratings so far. For Swift to be involved at the top despite his team's current standing in the table, he must be posting strong underlying performance numbers.  However, the 24 year-old was sent off this week against Fulham, having received his second yellow card in just the 20th minute.minute.  José Gomes will have to cope without the star man for the upcoming contest with Bristol City, so how may he adjust?  Firstly, let's identify Swift's impact to determine the extent of the loss.

In terms of the basics, Swift has scored two goals as well as registering four assists, despite playing in central midfield. Those are notable figures considering his role in Gomes' side, and the fact that six losses have been suffered so far.  Swift is averaging a scoring contribution every 145 minutes based on his showings, and he's also shooting frequently. 44 central midfielders have amassed over 600 minutes so far in the Championship, with Swift in seventh place for shots taken per 90 minutes.  In addition, he also manages to find the target frequently, posting a better accuracy percentage than all of those above him who take more shots, including Eberechi Eze and Mateusz Klich.

Also, based on those 44 central midfielders, only two are averaging more dribble attempts per 90, with those being Eze and Ovie Ejaria.  The 24 year-old seems to be having a very impressive season based on his numbers, as he's evidently a scorer who takes plenty of shots, while also dribbling and creating for others.  The latter, in terms of supplying teammates with chances, is captured by his Expected Assists (xA) output.  xA offers an insight into the likelihood of a chance being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a player deserved an assist or not, regardless of whether the chance was scored.  Of the group of 44 midfielders, Swift's xA per 90 places him top. It's worth noting that the English talent takes most set-pieces for his team, so his figure may be influenced somewhat by the free deliveries that he's hitting into the penalty box, but nevertheless, he's still clearly a crucial asset for his side.

Swift is also third on the list for through passes per 90, which indicates that he looks to play teammates in behind opposing defences more often than most, and he's fourteenth for passes to the final third per 90.  He's presenting the image of a player who's able to play in central midfield yet influence proceedings in an attacking sense at the business end of the pitch.  Replacing his output won't be easy, but a change in formation may be explored.

The Portuguese manager has favoured 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2 this season, with the former in particular remaining as a legitimate option despite Swift's absence.  Ejaria is a player of interest, as although he's different to Swift, the pair hold certain similarities. The youngster is skillful and capable of dribbling, playing incisively and operating in tight spaces.  He may be instructed to perform as the team's no.10 in the 4-2-3-1 shape, with his main weakness being scoring.  Ejaria tends to shoot much less than Swift, and he's scored only three goals in his last 2,000 Championship minutes. His output may have been influenced by his role, but nevertheless, it would be unreasonable to expect him to find the net.  As a consequence, the scoring would have to be provided from elsewhere, with Lucas Boye on the left and Yakou Meite on the right.  The former is right-footed, whereas the latter is left-footed, which means the pair should be inclined to drive inwards towards goal rather than staying near the touchline.

Boye's threat this season hasn't been particularly notable, with only six shots taken in the league so far, but Meite certainly appears to offer enough danger based on his numbers by shooting almost three times as frequently.  Pele and Andy Rinomhota could then fulfil largely defensive and controlling roles as a duo behind the offensive quadrant, with the overall formation pictured below.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how Gomes will approach Swift's absence, but there are several adjustments he can make based on the qualities he's losing as well as what certain other players offer.

Do your homework Dave. You didn't even mention that Ovie Ejaria's name is 70% vowels, making him high up the rankings of most vowel-heavy footballers. I mean, LJ will have this on his pre-match PowerPoint presentation. 

Which Premier League footballer has the most vowel-heavy name? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/02/which-premier-league-footballer-has-the-most-vowel-heavy-name?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[mozo]

Reading have won three of their last 36 away Championship games (W3 D15 L18).

Come on...

[ukneil]

9 hours ago, Jerseybean said:

We can also expect not to be able to watch the game on Robins TV https://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/no-livestream-for-royals-visit/

Anybody able to suggest an alternative stream for overseas bods like me please? 

Great, this really pisses me off. I pay for both Robins TV and for DAZN which is the online service with exclusive rights for EFL in Canada.  But the game is on neither. WTF?  Surely using IP addresses they can blackout users from the Countries where the game is actually being show.  Bastard money grabbers. 

Apologies for the rant but Saturday morning ritual ruined, and it's a bloody international break coming up too.  Nothing left but to watch the egg chasers.  

[Bernard Lerring]

7 hours ago, mozo said:

Reading have won three of their last 36 away Championship games (W3 D15 L18).

Come on...

Wow that's pretty shit.... but I can't imagine our home form over the last 36 games makes great reading either sadly 

[City oz]

Goals and plenty of them. If we do not get 3 points today and it is another draw although the unbeaten run continues the questions will start up again ‘are we good enough”?

[City oz]

Just realised for those City Fans in OZ the game is live tonight on FOXTEL BE IN SPORTS 2.