Lanterne Rouge Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 11 games in and the top six are covered by two points and only four cover everyone down to tenth. Is that normal or is it a more than usually competitive season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Seems normal to me although I haven’t stats to back up my suspicion. It is normally after Christmas when the division settles down to contenders and also rans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatalist Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: 11 games in and the top six are covered by two points and only four cover everyone down to tenth. Is that normal or is it a more than usually competitive season? No team running away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Normal is when two or three break away with at least a "one defeat cushion" between them and the chasing pack. So this looks like a very even race for top six with at least twelve involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted October 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, cidered abroad said: Normal is when two or three break away with at least a "one defeat cushion" between them and the chasing pack. So this looks like a very even race for top six with at least twelve involved. This is how I`m seeing it. Every time a side or two looks to be pulling away they get pegged back - Leeds & Swansea being a case in point yesterday. If they`d both won and Forest, Baggies & PNE had lost/drawn they would have been clear in first & second but as it is they`re back in the pack. Both had games that on paper they should have won too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 After 11 games last season, the joint leaders were also on 22 points (same as this), Leeds, Boro, Sheff Utd. 6th was Brentford on 17. 10th place was us actually on 16 points. Also quite tight. in 2017/18 - Top were Cardiff on 24. 6th Preston on 20. 10th Fulham on 17. So a slightly larger spread. So even though the points for the team placed in 1st are very similar, the tightness of the top 10 this season currently suggests it could be a little more competitive. My question would be that maybe first team quality has improved in the division, but how many of the current top 10 have the squad depth to keep that form up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 There's no outstanding team in it this year and I wouldn't expect anyone to run away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Rob Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Unusually competitive, or unusually open? I won't be surprised to see an 'unfancied' side in the Prem next season. Fingers crossed it's us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted October 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said: Unusually competitive, or unusually open? I won't be surprised to see an 'unfancied' side in the Prem next season. Fingers crossed it's us. It`ll be bloody Preston, you just wait and see if it isn`t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Red Hat Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: It`ll be bloody Preston, you just wait and see if it isn`t! Both of us? 50th and 51st Prem teams isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted October 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Both of us? 50th and 51st Prem teams isn’t it? You can just see us needing a point for the playoffs going into the last game - who do we play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The hand of RO'D Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I haven't seen anyone who I think are the real deal just yet. Fulham have the potential to run away with it and I think as long as they stay relatively injury free I think they will start to pull away. I'm hoping we can still remain in the top 8 come January and add 2 or 3 really quality signings with a ST, CB and potentially another winger along with players returning from injury to make a good push in the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 https://experimental361.com/2019/10/06/expected-goals-league-tables-4-7-oct-2019/ https://experimental361.com/2019/10/06/scatter-graphics-championship-5-oct-2019/ For me, Fulham, West Brom and Leeds will go up. Barnsley, Wigan and Huddersfield to go down. And a whole bunch in the middle that could be separated by 3 wins over a season. As usual, Brentford creating masses of chances but not converting. We are awful at creating many chances. Second worst. Think we are riding our luck at the moment. It will definitely help when we get players back fit, to unburden the load, as games will come thick and fast. However we are doing incredibly well considering how few chances we create. Clinical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 It's interesting, no real outstanding sides and quite a few overachievers too IMO. Notably, though they're all doing well I wonder about the sticking power of Nottingham Forest, Charlton, QPR. PLUS maybe West Brom as I can't see them as an outstanding side. Swansea I also wonder about a bit- are those 3-5 sides being up there reflective of a reduction in quality or something else? Leeds I think- well they have mostly dominated sides this season, should surely have another 6-8 points based on underlying performance levels, Fulham surely should have some more as well and perhaps more importantly seem to have the outstanding squad. Cardiff I feel have more to give- fortunately their away form is poor and long may that continue! Us? Hard to say. We've considering all these injuries done fantastic and tbh would be decent even with less ones, but 20 pts 11 games, so many important players to return- when they do, it's only going to bolster us, more control in games and concession of less chances is IMO a must to keep up the good work. As key players return, I expect both of these to improve- we should be strong top 6 challengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Thompson Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 The coaching is better, leading to more competitive games.Against Reading for instance our 442 with wide players coming inside was picked up by Reading. We had to plug the hole down our right to counter their cross balls. Thank goodness our coaches are on the ball to pick things up whilst we have a weakened team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natchfever Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 17 hours ago, Northern Red said: There's no outstanding team in it this year and I wouldn't expect anyone to run away with it. Someone might go balls out and bring in quality January in an attempt to buy their way up if it stays tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 @Bob Thompson 4-4-2 with wingers coming inside- something I'm not wholly sold on Eliasson's ability to do- will leave you with a hole somewhere vs 3 in CM and risks overloads in other areas if it's a 4-3-3 eg, depending on the types of wingers and strikers. Wingers come inside in the 4-4-2 though and you can risk 2 v 1 out wide, wingers stay outside to match up and you may well concede and lose the middle- counterattacking and ceding possession can help to counteract this but if the mindset of the 4-4-2 is fairly proactive, then a side will barring an early 2 or 3 goal blitz, sooner or later have a problem! IMO anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturny Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 21 hours ago, Fatalist said: No team running away with it. How I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazooka Joe Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Loon plage said: Someone might go balls out and bring in quality January in an attempt to buy their way up if it stays tight. What are the chances of that being us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allwaysred Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 On 06/10/2019 at 16:01, Red Right Hand said: 11 games in and the top six are covered by two points and only four cover everyone down to tenth. Is that normal or is it a more than usually competitive season? As I've already posted we will never have a better chance to get promoted than this year... As you've said above there are 11 teams that you can chuck a blanket over and everyone has lost a game including that so called massive club Leeds. It's an even keel this year with big clubs having off field problems and FFP restraints so a little investment wisely in January and it could see us over the line..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up The City! Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 On 06/10/2019 at 20:33, spudski said: https://experimental361.com/2019/10/06/expected-goals-league-tables-4-7-oct-2019/ https://experimental361.com/2019/10/06/scatter-graphics-championship-5-oct-2019/ For me, Fulham, West Brom and Leeds will go up. Barnsley, Wigan and Huddersfield to go down. And a whole bunch in the middle that could be separated by 3 wins over a season. As usual, Brentford creating masses of chances but not converting. We are awful at creating many chances. Second worst. Think we are riding our luck at the moment. It will definitely help when we get players back fit, to unburden the load, as games will come thick and fast. However we are doing incredibly well considering how few chances we create. Clinical. With predictions like that you would be well suited to working for Sky Sports. For me, the 3 biggest clubs (that you have predicted for promotion) haven't shown enough to predict they will be promoted. They've done a decent job but they are not consistently winnings games. With how open it is after pretty much a quarter of the season played, it's almost impossible to predict who will be promoted. If anything the fact the 3 big clubs have not ran away with it only puts pressure on them, the deeper we get into the season, the more intense that pressure becomes, where as a club like Preston doesn't have that same pressure. I feel you are being a little harsh on us. Usually we are right up there with creating chances, it's easy to see why we have created less this season. It's all about grinding out results until we get those players fit again. I think Nagy is a bigger loss to us than we realise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Up The City! said: With predictions like that you would be well suited to working for Sky Sports. For me, the 3 biggest clubs (that you have predicted for promotion) haven't shown enough to predict they will be promoted. They've done a decent job but they are not consistently winnings games. With how open it is after pretty much a quarter of the season played, it's almost impossible to predict who will be promoted. If anything the fact the 3 big clubs have not ran away with it only puts pressure on them, the deeper we get into the season, the more intense that pressure becomes, where as a club like Preston doesn't have that same pressure. I feel you are being a little harsh on us. Usually we are right up there with creating chances, it's easy to see why we have created less this season. It's all about grinding out results until we get those players fit again. I think Nagy is a bigger loss to us than we realise. Not sure how you see me being harsh. I stated the facts...they show we are the second worst at creating chances. I then said it will help when players come back to fitness to unburden the load. I then said...we are doing well considering...and we are clinical in front of goal. How's that harsh? As for 361 scatter graphs...they are a very good guide to how clubs are performing. Over the years they've proven very correct...and it's usually only a couple teams that buck the trend, Brentford however seem to underachieve every season. We are grinding out results...however we create few chances and allow teams to shoot and have chances on goal. You've only got to watch games to see that yourself. It is a concern...because we are very busy chasing games. Expending energy. An overworked midfield and defence leads to fatigue and injury. I look at Messengo...no way is that lad going to keep what he's doing week in week out over the season. This is why we need players back fit...and also our offensive players to provide faster pressing and defensive duties, as well as better positioning when on the offensive. Controlling games, instead of chasing is far less exhausting, and leads to far less injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Without being critical to @Red Right Hand this does feel like a thread that crops up around this time of year, well about the second international break anyway. Clearly there are statistics to show it’s tighter than ever though, I think this is partly down to the potential quality of the teams who have started poorly. They still have good players who can win a game, and as many of the results on Saturday showed, the old cliche of ‘no easy games” is truer than ever. If the Managers at teams like Stoke and Huddersfield or even Reading can get them going, then they are going to trouble a lot of teams above them. I’m pleased we have got our results against a few of the teams below us already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 54 minutes ago, spudski said: Not sure how you see me being harsh. I stated the facts...they show we are the second worst at creating chances. I then said it will help when players come back to fitness to unburden the load. I then said...we are doing well considering...and we are clinical in front of goal. How's that harsh? As for 361 scatter graphs...they are a very good guide to how clubs are performing. Over the years they've proven very correct...and it's usually only a couple teams that buck the trend, Brentford however seem to underachieve every season. We are grinding out results...however we create few chances and allow teams to shoot and have chances on goal. You've only got to watch games to see that yourself. It is a concern...because we are very busy chasing games. Expending energy. An overworked midfield and defence leads to fatigue and injury. I look at Messengo...no way is that lad going to keep what he's doing week in week out over the season. This is why we need players back fit...and also our offensive players to provide faster pressing and defensive duties, as well as better positioning when on the offensive. Controlling games, instead of chasing is far less exhausting, and leads to far less injuries. Injuries are dictating this somewhat currently IMO but tbh it feels fairly unsustainable to me on current trends. Chasing vs controlling games...fully agree. Walsh in a 3 would perhaps have helped us to do this more- but again injuries. Couldn't have foreseen Nagy getting himself injured further on international duty and of course Walsh needs game time to develop as well. Same with Morrell, though different type of player but that extra body just helps- think our shape of 4-2-3-1 with Paterson or Palmer in the centre of the '3'...well it did Pack few favours. When our injuries clear up we should be an even greater force but it feels unsustainable right now. Mind you, I'd say a number of sides do for varying reasons! For us though, will we keep converting at the current rate while also will the chances conceded start to result in more goals for the opposition? That's before we even get onto possession, energy expended when undermanned in certain zones etc. Overall? Right now I'd say that it just feels like we are too open ATM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturny Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 17 hours ago, Bazooka Joe said: What are the chances of that being us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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