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Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution


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3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Tommy Rowe is class. I saw him in one of the Tampa games and picked him out as the one guy that looked in control of what he was doing. Everything had purpose, he knew exactly what he wanted to do, what he wanted the opponent to do, and what he wanted his teammates to do. He communicated all of that to his teammates and was simply class. I cannot wait for when Dasilva is back fit and we can move Rowe centrally. He won't play every game but I think in tough away games against top opposition he will be invaluable.

Definitely has the attributes of a central midfielder, much more than LB/LWB. But will be very hard for him to get much game time there with Massengo, Brownhill, Nagy and Korey to return. A very nice problem for LJ.

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7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

As for that XG thing, don't get me started on that!

The part I find interesting about xG is you can break it down and look at how often teams shoot from certain positions and the value of the shot in relation to that. Are teams taking more shots from the 0.05 areas of the pitch, wide on goal in the 0.3 areas of the pitch or getting the ball central into the box into the 0.7 areas of the pitch etc. Helps show an understanding of what chances the teams are trying to create. Essentially creating a heatmap of where teams take their chances from.

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42 minutes ago, hodge said:

The part I find interesting about xG is you can break it down and look at how often teams shoot from certain positions and the value of the shot in relation to that. Are teams taking more shots from the 0.05 areas of the pitch, wide on goal in the 0.3 areas of the pitch or getting the ball central into the box into the 0.7 areas of the pitch etc. Helps show an understanding of what chances the teams are trying to create. Essentially creating a heatmap of where teams take their chances from.

Certainly of more value than the basic shots/shots on target stats.

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5 hours ago, JonDolman said:

I'm not a stats man at all. I don't actually know how to use them as I know they don't always tell the true story.

I do think number of sprints in a game is useful for a manager to see how much a player is putting into a game.

And it can be handy for coaches I think to search for a player. We looked at Eliasson because of his number of crosses he statistically manages in a game. Then I guess you look at why when watching the player.

But if someone says to me Massengo had a bad game because of some stat when I've seen him play superbly well, I'm not really interested in it. Because there can be so many reasons for a stat to be lower than expected.

A ball down the channel to relieve pressure is statistically bad, but for the team it can be good. And an unsuccessful pass can be down to the person on the end of it more than the actual passer. It's all so complicated. 

There's no factual way of determining how well a player played. It's all opinion. 

As for that XG thing, don't get me started on that!

 

You may be a tough task master if you use sprinting as a measure of effort because football players infrequently run over thirty metres in games in a straight line. Sprinting speed what is known as actualisation is reached well after thirty metres. Players may not reach actualisation till after fifty metres of acceleration. The number of sprints will be nil. 

Sprints defined by removing actualisation - Norms are 2% of a players movement. And some players will still record nil sprints. 

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15 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

You may be a tough task master if you use sprinting as a measure of effort because football players infrequently run over thirty metres in games in a straight line. Sprinting speed what is known as actualisation is reached well after thirty metres. Players may not reach actualisation till after fifty metres of acceleration. The number of sprints will be nil. 

Sprints defined by removing actualisation - Norms are 2% of a players movement. And some players will still record nil sprints. 

Probably accelerations would be a better one

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On 16/10/2019 at 23:01, Davefevs said:

Drifting away from the OP, interesting tweet tonight:

 

Back to your tangent, interesting that the current top 6 have favourable fixtures upcoming. This is the chance to pull away. 

Can we take it?!

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3 minutes ago, mozo said:

Back to your tangent, interesting that the current top 6 have favourable fixtures upcoming. This is the chance to pull away. 

Can we take it?!

It’s a good question.

It’s certainly an opportunity - if the league table doesn’t lie too much at this stage of the season. 

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s a good question.

It’s certainly an opportunity - if the league table doesn’t lie too much at this stage of the season. 

Tomorrow will be a good case in point. Momentum should favour us and putting 'weaker' teams to the sword is all part of building success.

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46 minutes ago, mozo said:

Tomorrow will be a good case in point. Momentum should favour us and putting 'weaker' teams to the sword is all part of building success.

Obviously always room for improvement, but I’m enjoying the way we are playing this season.  I call it “pragmatic”....in my head I think LJ May have realised that his pure ideas don’t always translate onto the pitch.  I think we are seeing a side that doesn’t have as much possession, but also doesn’t give away too many cheap chances (even if volume of chances is higher than usual) - definitely a system that pushes the ball away from danger areas.

I think that was part of the idea of Pack last season (after West Brom away) to never see our 2x CBS (in a back 4) exposed on the break but it stifled us in posession....slow and ponderous (not all Pack’s fault).

We now have a back 3 (whether that will remain I don’t know) and a fluid, energetic two in front - plus Palmer and two forwards, meaning the centre of the pitch is more condensed.

Dunno if the two pics help describe what I mean.

588CAD42-6B5E-41CF-8CA6-A6F481DBFCA9.jpeg.ba980fd80757a706cdcf5fa0e3da1610.jpeg
18/19 - Red danger areas much closer to our goal, but tough (green) to get in behind TK and AW centrally because of MP.

5F97ECF6-18E6-481B-817E-44284AAA2C70.jpeg.2e81522e981cd18ee33ce399cb99ff08.jpeg

19/20 - back 3 and 2 CMs making a bigger safe (green) in the most dangerous part of the pitch.  Threat pushed wider (red)...although pressure on our WBs.  Looking back at Statszone each game you see the opposition have quite a lot of shots, but also a high proportion from distance and a high proportion blocked....by those 5 in the green zone.

 

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18 hours ago, spudski said:

I've noticed the new rule with goalkicks has really changed the game.

It's stretched the pitch even further, and teams are drawing players in, creating lots more space in midfield.

In all my years I've never witnessed football being played in such an expansive manner. 

Teams are stretched width wise, and length wise.

It wasn't long ago everything was congested in small areas of the pitch.

The game is constantly evolving.

Fitness and greater discipline and understanding, with better technique is allowing this evolution.

It's amazing how quickly we have all got used to it too. Sometimes when I watch the old videos that are posted on here, the ball gets passed back and my immediate thought is "ooh that looks tight" and then the keeper picks it up and I suddenly remember that that was perfectly acceptable. Imagine the time wasting (sorry Game Management) that would take place if that was till the case.

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1 minute ago, Port Said Red said:

It's amazing how quickly we have all got used to it too. Sometimes when I watch the old videos that are posted on here, the ball gets passed back and my immediate thought is "ooh that looks tight" and then the keeper picks it up and I suddenly remember that that was perfectly acceptable. Imagine the time wasting (sorry Game Management) that would take place if that was till the case.

There was an argument that in the early years of the no-pass back rule, that more time was wasted by:

  • keeper’s kicking it out of play more often
  • the forward chasing down the keeper being caught offside when the keeper’s kick was headed back forward again

???

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13 hours ago, Cowshed said:

You may be a tough task master if you use sprinting as a measure of effort because football players infrequently run over thirty metres in games in a straight line. Sprinting speed what is known as actualisation is reached well after thirty metres. Players may not reach actualisation till after fifty metres of acceleration. The number of sprints will be nil. 

Sprints defined by removing actualisation - Norms are 2% of a players movement. And some players will still record nil sprints. 

Maybe that's another stat that has no use to me then!

I rImember hearing how Alardyce uses sprinting stats to see how hard his players are working in a match. And also remember reading England had a very high sprinting stats in their forward and midfield positions in a 3-2 win over Germany, that was key to their win.

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50 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

On the subject of the back-pass rule, there was a recent episode of the 99% Invisible podcast that covered this change, and the unintended consequences of it.

https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/unsure-footing/

*Disclaimer: It is a US podcast, so you'll have to put up with the American phrasings etc

A wonderful clip from that episode:

 

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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Sounds very much like Jack Hunt fits the mould. He doesn't need to be defensively elite, or even have high accuracy of passing, but he gets up and down and is persistently putting quality deliveries into dangerous areas.

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4 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

It's amazing how quickly we have all got used to it too. Sometimes when I watch the old videos that are posted on here, the ball gets passed back and my immediate thought is "ooh that looks tight" and then the keeper picks it up and I suddenly remember that that was perfectly acceptable. Imagine the time wasting (sorry Game Management) that would take place if that was till the case.

I know what you mean...I think this new rule has really improved the game.

Talking of watching old footage, it's worth doing to see how much the game has moved on. Physically, tactically, mentally...it's another world when you compare even to only ten years ago.

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5 minutes ago, spudski said:

I know what you mean...I think this new rule has really improved the game.

Talking of watching old footage, it's worth doing to see how much the game has moved on. Physically, tactically, mentally...it's another world when you compare even to only ten years ago.

It's amazing, the pitches the kits, the number of tackles where you wince and hardly seem to get a free kick given let alone a card. 

I watched the Manchester City thing over the last couple of days on your recommendation, by the way. It was ok, I thought it could have been even more indepth but there were some interesting things there. I think it highlighted why Johnson talks about DNA so much, Pep clearly felt that his best motivation tactic was to appeal to the players own belief/will to be the best. "I know you want this", I know you can be the best" etc. If you can get those kind of characters into a team it's easier. I would have liked to have heard something about him explaining to players why they were playing or not, and how he sold them his selection decisions. 
I liked the bit where he was explaining to Arteta how upset Sterling was with himself for missing an easy chance and how he was going to use it as motivation. I would like to have seen the conversation with Sterling first though. 
I have one question though....... how the hell do the players which of those magnetic markers on the board are them? :) I was expecting something with their faces on at least!!

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On 16/10/2019 at 12:39, Port Said Red said:

I have often thought that Pep's greatest quality must be his man management skills, there must be some huge egos in the kind of dressing rooms he has managed, yet you rarely read of players being unhappy with too little or too much game time etc.

Indeed, also look at the way he gets elite players to buy into his philosophy, at all his clubs the work ethic that he instills is crazy, and like Aguero he can even get players who aren't perhaps naturally inclined to play that way to buy into his philosophy is why he will go down as one of the greats. 

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1 hour ago, Port Said Red said:

It's amazing, the pitches the kits, the number of tackles where you wince and hardly seem to get a free kick given let alone a card. 

I watched the Manchester City thing over the last couple of days on your recommendation, by the way. It was ok, I thought it could have been even more indepth but there were some interesting things there. I think it highlighted why Johnson talks about DNA so much, Pep clearly felt that his best motivation tactic was to appeal to the players own belief/will to be the best. "I know you want this", I know you can be the best" etc. If you can get those kind of characters into a team it's easier. I would have liked to have heard something about him explaining to players why they were playing or not, and how he sold them his selection decisions. 
I liked the bit where he was explaining to Arteta how upset Sterling was with himself for missing an easy chance and how he was going to use it as motivation. I would like to have seen the conversation with Sterling first though. 
I have one question though....... how the hell do the players which of those magnetic markers on the board are them? :) I was expecting something with their faces on at least!!

The magic markers made me laugh...I've never seen a manager so animated and move markers so quickly :laugh:.

I agree it could have been more in depth in parts, however it was still a good watch.

Must be hard trying to motivate multi millionaire's to run through brick walls for you. Again...great man management.

And DNA is so revealing of character and drive. If only some of these footballers realised how revealing some of their social media likes are.

A certain midfielder in our U23s is certainly out of character with the majority of our squad...and funnily some people have been saying his form has dipped. Perhaps it's because he like the 'Gangsta' type girls more than his footy ATM.

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1 minute ago, spudski said:

The magic markers made me laugh...I've never seen a manager so animated and move markers so quickly :laugh:.

I agree it could have been more in depth in parts, however it was still a good watch.

Must be hard trying to motivate multi millionaire's to run through brick walls for you. Again...great man management.

And DNA is so revealing of character and drive. If only some of these footballers realised how revealing some of their social media likes are.

A certain midfielder in our U23s is certainly out of character with the majority of our squad...and funnily some people have been saying his form has dipped. Perhaps it's because he like the 'Gangsta' type girls more than his footy ATM.

A Mr Bakinson?

Not to cast aspersions or anything, it's just IIRC he was in-line to make the squad vs Manchester United before he started boasting about it, or a similar event.

May have that wrong though.

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2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

A Mr Bakinson?

Not to cast aspersions or anything, it's just IIRC he was in-line to make the squad vs Manchester United before he started boasting about it, or a similar event.

May have that wrong though.

Good guess...I don't know him as a person...but he certainly stands out as different to most in our squad. Him and Omar Bogle have similar taste :laugh:

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20 hours ago, JonDolman said:

Maybe that's another stat that has no use to me then!

I rImember hearing how Alardyce uses sprinting stats to see how hard his players are working in a match. And also remember reading England had a very high sprinting stats in their forward and midfield positions in a 3-2 win over Germany, that was key to their win.

It would probably have no use to yourself as why would most people be interested?

In coaching it has relevance for team and players needs in context. Its very easy  to monitor frequency of runs x speed x area of pitch with gps tracking. Expectations for differing levels v norms can then be considered. Back to your earlier point regarding effort, effort can be measured via differing measurements and with assured  faith in the data. The data cannot be opinion. 

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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Had a quick look at experimental 3-6-1 and almost right tbh- 1.5-0.8!

Crazy right. Personally I think the gaping chasm in the quality of the shots we are creating and conceding only underlines how crucial Bentley's performances have been. Both anecdotally and statistically he's kept us in games and thus kept us high up the table.

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