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Benik Afobe Updates


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3 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

What's QPR's "expected goals" compared to ours? Cos if they're creating 10 times the chances we are...

Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats:

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0ECD7FAA-5CBC-4923-8956-C65611B17146.thumb.jpeg.9dd917f323d881a1417933b3d351150b.jpeg

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in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch.  13 goals from 7.65 xG.

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47 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats:

2D5C65F7-000B-4AC2-93CD-5C8E48802DB0.thumb.jpeg.fdf9c5e119df92bf9bc05db151e2dd59.jpeg

0ECD7FAA-5CBC-4923-8956-C65611B17146.thumb.jpeg.9dd917f323d881a1417933b3d351150b.jpeg

4F8E4841-983B-4B02-8BB6-1BC90A5519EF.thumb.jpeg.f3f03942226c229fe83dd4bc98c55417.jpeg

in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch.  13 goals from 7.65 xG.

Do you have a Wyscout subscription, Dave? Assuming I’m right in saying that’s the platform in the photo. I’ve always wanted one but can’t justify the cost really as I would only use it as a hobby. 

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5 hours ago, bcfc01 said:
 
Due to the lack of movement in front of them maybe ?
 
Anyway, to back up KITR stats (league only);
 
Diedhiou;
Minutes played   1616
Goals scored       7
Goal every            231 minutes
 
Wells;
Minutes played   1617
Goals scored       13
Goal every            124 minutes
 
 
 

So going from Fam who essentially scores 1 in 3 to Wells who is a 1 in (less than) 2 player. It's a big upgrade based on those figures.

48 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s Wells, Diedhiou and Weimann’s stats:

2D5C65F7-000B-4AC2-93CD-5C8E48802DB0.thumb.jpeg.fdf9c5e119df92bf9bc05db151e2dd59.jpeg

0ECD7FAA-5CBC-4923-8956-C65611B17146.thumb.jpeg.9dd917f323d881a1417933b3d351150b.jpeg

4F8E4841-983B-4B02-8BB6-1BC90A5519EF.thumb.jpeg.f3f03942226c229fe83dd4bc98c55417.jpeg

in terms of the chances each gets (not team xG) Wells superior by some stretch.  13 goals from 7.65 xG.

He's quite frankly better in most areas. Shots on target % of nearly 60%? Yes please. You might need to dig deeper and see if he's getting incredibly easy chances - but then again we have very high xG per shot on target stats this season which means we are creating "easy" chances already. Get a bloke who hits the target 60% of the time taking shots that have a near 40% chance of going in anyway and I'd humbly expect to see a serious up tick in the number of goals scored column. Could that offset the leaky defence? Maybe.

Defensively his stats are worse but that could easily be down to how he's been deployed and what he's asked to do at QPR. I don't watch them enough to really know.

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11 minutes ago, Distortia said:

Do you have a Wyscout subscription, Dave? Assuming I’m right in saying that’s the platform in the photo. I’ve always wanted one but can’t justify the cost really as I would only use it as a hobby. 

Yes I do....but I don’t use it anywhere near enough.  I’m on an old subscription tariff of €12 p/m, which I don’t believe they promote anymore.  They do a 14 day trial.  I’m probably not getting value for money at the mo’, but useful for clips etc....and for proving points on OTIB (Priceless)!!

Hobby for me too.

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3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

So going from Fam who essentially scores 1 in 3 to Wells who is a 1 in (less than) 2 player. It's a big upgrade based on those figures.

He's quite frankly better in most areas. Shots on target % of nearly 60%? Yes please. You might need to dig deeper and see if he's getting incredibly easy chances - but then again we have very high xG per shot on target stats this season which means we are creating "easy" chances already. Get a bloke who hits the target 60% of the time taking shots that have a near 40% chance of going in anyway and I'd humbly expect to see a serious up tick in the number of goals scored column. Could that offset the leaky defence? Maybe.

Defensively his stats are worse but that could easily be down to how he's been deployed and what he's asked to do at QPR. I don't watch them enough to really know.

Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!!

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5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!!

Agree...although the counter argument could be that he's just had a massive purple patch. Is he converting at a rate way above the average for strikers in our division? If so then it's very possible, even likely, that he'll drop off that rate and return to the average xG rate of 7 - 8 goals.But would you take a (late) January signing scoring 7 - 8 goals? Yes you would.

Edit: although that's presumable 7.65 goals across 1693 minutes - equivalent to 0.4 goals per 90. Assume (if he signs at all - must remember he's not our player) he signs on 31 Jan. That's 17 matches remaining so 6-7 goals reasonably expected if he played the full 90 of every game...yeh I'd take that.

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3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Those 13 goals scored versus 7.65 xG shows he is taking chances he shouldn’t be....eg he’s a finisher!!

With him in a city shirt we won't be hearing the commentators saying " oh he's missed a sitter or he really should've scored" like we hear every game now. 

I was looking at the top scorers in the championship and pretty sure everyone else with 9+ goals, same as Weimann we'd have no chance of signing 

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8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Agree...although the counter argument could be that he's just had a massive purple patch. Is he converting at a rate way above the average for strikers in our division? If so then it's very possible, even likely, that he'll drop off that rate and return to the average xG rate of 7 - 8 goals.But would you take a (late) January signing scoring 7 - 8 goals? Yes you would.

 

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5E485703-2038-4FE7-80D3-8120022990AC.jpeg

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5 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

Correct;

Mitrovic;
Minutes played   2330
Goals scored       18
Goal every            129 minutes
 
Watkins;
Minutes played   2518
Goals scored       18
Goal every            140 minutes
 
Bowen;
Minutes played   2520
Goals scored       16
Goal every            158 minutes
 
Grabban;
Minutes played   2299
Goals scored       15
Goal every            153 minutes

Didn't realise Marley was doing so well.  When did we let him go?

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2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

39F60E7E-214E-43B8-8ED7-C801D3740066.jpeg

5E485703-2038-4FE7-80D3-8120022990AC.jpeg

Yes Mate.

So basically he's had a mad season of massively outperforming both his own xG and the average xG of strikers in this division (haven't calculated it but it looks like it's around 0.35-0.4 goals per 90). So even if he was going along at his expected rate of 0.41 he'd still be an above average striker, and would still be expected to score more per 90 than Weimann. Interestingly about the same as you'd expect Fam to score - and that's where we see the limitations of stats. Tell you what though - that Afobe lad at the bottom of your list...I know its a small sample size but .5 xG and .5 goals per 90...phwoar - hope we're scouting him.

@Davefevs Painful seeing how few shots Fam and Andi take as well - both around 2 per 90. Compare that to the top strikers, and those that play for top teams and all are well above 2 with some clearing 3 per 90. might not sound like a huge difference but %wise it's massive. Grabban the only one with 10 goals but a shot rate of less than 2 per 90. Look at that next to their conversion rates and i think it's a blatant indicator that LJ is compensating for poor finishing ability by telling them to only shoot from very good positions. Personally I think this hampers Fam - I'd be telling him to be a little more trigger happy.

2 hours ago, Harry said:

We don’t need stats to know that Wells is far superior to our current strikers. 
Been plain to the naked eye for years. 

Edit. But I do like the stats tho ?

Harry, I use stats to tell me whether my eyes are deceiving me or not. Analyse with your eyes, form your hypothesis, then see if the stats support you or not. Keeps me sane when we're in the midst of an LJ streak (either good or bad).

Edit: we've strayed miles off topic. Get well soon Benik, and fyi everyone the stairs charity team smashed their goal and so far are well over the 2 grand mark.

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On 22/01/2020 at 15:37, Dan Robin said:

Glad to hear that Benik is recovering well, probably faster than we thought, but honestly I would be surprised to see him involved in many matches, after such a heavy injury. That's why getting another striker remains essential.

Be prepared to be surprised. He will be back by the end of the season, no doubt about it.

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On 22/01/2020 at 14:26, Kid in the Riot said:

Wells is scoring a goal every 124 minutes at QPR.

Fam a goal every 210 minutes.

Weimann a goal every 272 minutes.

Could make quite a significant difference.

If we create more chances. As has been pointed out our goals to chances ratio is high. What is QPRs chances created per game ratio compared to ours?

The bloke could be the difference, maybe! However the extra competition would be welcome!!

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44 minutes ago, Up The City! said:

Be prepared to be surprised. He will be back by the end of the season, no doubt about it.

Still long way to go, if he hasn’t started running yet.  He’s about 3 months into his rehab, so bang on target...running 12-16 weeks in.  But as a pro, he’s gonna get best rehab, and opportunity to do as much as he needs to, whereas I had to fit it in around work.

Crucial stage, how his need responds to running and impact.

Good luck Benik.  You can’t help but admire him.

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25 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Still long way to go, if he hasn’t started running yet.  He’s about 3 months into his rehab, so bang on target...running 12-16 weeks in.  But as a pro, he’s gonna get best rehab, and opportunity to do as much as he needs to, whereas I had to fit it in around work.

Crucial stage, how his need responds to running and impact.

Good luck Benik.  You can’t help but admire him.

I didnt know this previously but heard on the radio yesterday that when a player is injured it is ultimately up to him what treatment he does and where he receives his rehab, ultimately many choose to do it with their clubs but the likes of Pogba etc who have endless amounts of cash can go to go wherever they like for their rehab. 

I just think with the motivation Afobe has, he will be back before the end of the season. It's almost like it's written in the stars for him to come back and score a last minute winner in the play off final! 

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11 minutes ago, Up The City! said:

I didnt know this previously but heard on the radio yesterday that when a player is injured it is ultimately up to him what treatment he does and where he receives his rehab, ultimately many choose to do it with their clubs but the likes of Pogba etc who have endless amounts of cash can go to go wherever they like for their rehab. 

I just think with the motivation Afobe has, he will be back before the end of the season. It's almost like it's written in the stars for him to come back and score a last minute winner in the play off final! 

Dean windass will be guest of Honour  when the final kick of the game takes place it hits his arse and rolls towards the goal the Keeper is pissing himself  laughing because he thinks the ball was out and it just trickles over the goal line. am I a dreamer? did the ball go out of play? or will VAR rule the ball was still in play? even though Dean was still in Hull and the final was at Wembley? or am I pissed?

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On 24/01/2020 at 21:53, REDOXO said:

If we create more chances. As has been pointed out our goals to chances ratio is high. What is QPRs chances created per game ratio compared to ours?

The bloke could be the difference, maybe! However the extra competition would be welcome!!

This is a goals to shots ratio (from Transfermarkt)- not quite the same as chances to goals ratio but easier to find and gives an indication :)

               SHOTS      GOALS     CONVERSION

CITY           85             44                51.8%

QPR           169           47                 27.8%

 

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1 hour ago, bcfc01 said:

This is a goals to shots ratio (from Transfermarkt)- not quite the same as chances to goals ratio but easier to find and gives an indication :)

               SHOTS      GOALS     CONVERSION

CITY           85             44                51.8%

QPR           169           47                 27.8%

 

Says quite a little bit about us in front of goal until now and not the typical narrative. I think Wells is a great addition and works as hard as anyone. Creating a few more chances could see us really challenge. Also credit to our defence/defending of late Four clean sheets speaks for itself!

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