Red-Robbo Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 43 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said: I’d be surprised if we saw him before April. Even then it might take him a while I get back to speed - maybe it will be the playoffs?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 hours ago, bcfc01 said: This is a goals to shots ratio (from Transfermarkt)- not quite the same as chances to goals ratio but easier to find and gives an indication SHOTS GOALS CONVERSION CITY 85 44 51.8% QPR 169 47 27.8% Over what period- or is this shots on target? Either way that's one hell of a conversion rate...I wonder about stats on TransferMarkt though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Over what period- or is this shots on target? Either way that's one hell of a conversion rate...I wonder about stats on TransferMarkt though! Looks like it's shots on target but may be counting differently what exactly a "shot on target" is. I collate data from whoscored.com and currently have us as having 103 shots on target from 313 total shots, 44 goals scored. Pretty much bang on 1 in 3 of our shots is on target and of those about 43% go in. Not a shoddy conversion rate at all. We are very, very efficient when compared to our average opposition. Over the season we, on average, need to shoot a fraction over 7 times for each goal we score. But we are forcing our opposition to take 11.4 shots at our goal to force a concession. This table shows well how we take good chances only. Joint top for shots inside the 6 yard box, second lowest % of shots from long range. I am convinced this comes from the coaching staff telling the players to control the shooting and don't waste possession by blazing over the bar from 30 yards out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Looks like it's shots on target but may be counting differently what exactly a "shot on target" is. I collate data from whoscored.com and currently have us as having 103 shots on target from 313 total shots, 44 goals scored. Pretty much bang on 1 in 3 of our shots is on target and of those about 43% go in. Not a shoddy conversion rate at all. We are very, very efficient when compared to our average opposition. Over the season we, on average, need to shoot a fraction over 7 times for each goal we score. But we are forcing our opposition to take 11.4 shots at our goal to force a concession. This table shows well how we take good chances only. Joint top for shots inside the 6 yard box, second lowest % of shots from long range. I am convinced this comes from the coaching staff telling the players to control the shooting and don't waste possession by blazing over the bar from 30 yards out. If possible can we see the numbers against the percentages, no probs if not. Used to wind me up that a ball would get headed out from a corner and be bouncing at waste height, to see Marlon or Josh trying to hit the impossible shot from 30 yards. Over the bar, add one to shots off target total. Get it under and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Davefevs said: If possible can we see the numbers against the percentages, no probs if not. Used to wind me up that a ball would get headed out from a corner and be bouncing at waste height, to see Marlon or Josh trying to hit the impossible shot from 30 yards. Over the bar, add one to shots off target total. Get it under and play. Sorted by total number of shots. We are so bloody shot-shy - but at least we're not Barnsley. Some more context - we've scored 1 goal from outside the box this season - I assume that was Brownhill's winner at Cardiff. 1% conversion rate is appalling; for context Brentford have 7, 4% conversion, Charlton are the only team to try long shots less than us yet still have 4 goals for those efforts, and the best snipers are WBA with 11 goals from their 160 long range shots - nearly 7% conversion. Essentially Johnson either thinks we can't score from long range or he just doesn't want us to try - the 1% conversion rate suggests he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 He is further along than I expected. Big few weeks now, before he can really step it up. He is a fast healer judging by this. Confirmed that he did ACL and LCL, so hopefully no cartilage damage. Video included in FB post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 41 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Sorted by total number of shots. We are so bloody shot-shy - but at least we're not Barnsley. Some more context - we've scored 1 goal from outside the box this season - I assume that was Brownhill's winner at Cardiff. 1% conversion rate is appalling; for context Brentford have 7, 4% conversion, Charlton are the only team to try long shots less than us yet still have 4 goals for those efforts, and the best snipers are WBA with 11 goals from their 160 long range shots - nearly 7% conversion. Essentially Johnson either thinks we can't score from long range or he just doesn't want us to try - the 1% conversion rate suggests he's right. Great analysis. My only gripe with that is that we scored a few from outside the box last season. Pretty sure Elliasson did at least twice. O'Dowda on the edge. Bound to be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 33 minutes ago, mozo said: Great analysis. My only gripe with that is that we scored a few from outside the box last season. Pretty sure Elliasson did at least twice. O'Dowda on the edge. Bound to be more. If you saw either of those two winding up a shot from 30 yards would you stick a tenner on it going in? I wouldn't. Up until about Christmas I had been really worrying about this style of play - this tactic of deliberately limiting ourselves to good, close chances whilst almost giving the opposition free reign to shoot on sight. We were being done over in games against top opposition as when you give attacks like Brentford, WBA and Leeds (and to an extent Barnsley) 20+ shots they are going to score at least one or two goals. Combine that with an average of only 3 shots on target per game from us and you can see way we've struggled against those very good, very attacking teams. However, since the turn of the year we seem to have been able to tighten up defensively and so scoring only 1 goal has been enough for us. Shots on target allowed has still been high but they've been speculative and easy for Bentley to deal with (this statement is based on the average xG of each shot on target allowed). I am still not sold on us this season, I still don't really think we are "good" even though we do seem to be "effective". With a finisher like Wells in the squad and Afobe to come back in we could really see our goals scored picking up in these last few months. Honestly I think that was LJ's plan - see also the pursuit of players like Reid, Nketiah, and his persistence with Weimann. These aren't strikers that bang in goals from miles out, they nip in and turn it in from 4 yards. The greatest striker of LJ's tenure, Mr. T. Abraham was the master of this in his season with us. I look at the 6 games coming up this month and can see us giving Leeds 25 shots (from which even Bamford must get at least one goal), WBA will probably take 20 against us as well. I think it is still going to be bumpy over this final third of the season, maybe the three new boys will make a difference, maybe Benik himself can come in for the final half dozen games and be that timely mental boost just as we are tiring in April. Suspect we will do ok against shot-shy Huddersfield, then Birmingham, Millwall and Derby could go either way and we'll lose against Leeds and WBA unless we really really have our shooting boots on. So W1 D3 and L2 is my conservative prediction - bump it up to W2 D2 L2 if we assume luck will be our lady in at least one of the "could go either way" games. Would put us on 58 with 30 points to play for at the beginning of the real run-in. Likely to be somewhere around 6th - 8th place depending on GD. This is a thread about Benik's recovery so I'll make this my last word on our shooting stats for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der no.2 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Great to see him in with us on Sat. and making good progress with training️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xiled Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Davefevs said: He is further along than I expected. Big few weeks now, before he can really step it up. He is a fast healer judging by this. Confirmed that he did ACL and LCL, so hopefully no cartilage damage. Video included in FB post. Watching him run away from the camera, he's got an incredibly even gait for a man coming back from major ligament damage. And he's very efficient over the ground. With enough room in the FFP budget, my heart would completely rule my head and I'd sign him in an instant. And I would rather we saw him back with us again in August than rush him in to action too early. If there was ever a football story to be written, it would be Afobe bagging a hat-trick at Wembley against Cardiff and firing us into the Premier League! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfcredandwhite Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Great to see him looking so healthy of course and I really hope his recovery stays on track. - but a bit of ‘keeps-uppy’ with nobody around is a bit different from trapping a ball in full flight from a teammate whilst holding off a committed defender! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said: Great to see him looking so healthy of course and I really hope his recovery stays on track. - but a bit of ‘keeps-uppy’ with nobody around is a bit different from trapping a ball in full flight from a teammate whilst holding off a committed defender! So you're saying he's only on the bench on Friday...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfcredandwhite Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 42 minutes ago, mozo said: So you're saying he's only on the bench on Friday...? I’m saying let’s keep our expectations under control but our hopes high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 This could work in our favour. Injured players coming back usually get through on adrenaline for a couple of games then struggle as they build up. Comes back in April to a massive reception, gets a goal or two then has the summer and a full pre season to properly get to match fitness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just in case I've missed it. What date does his loan end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, marmite said: Just in case I've missed it. What date does his loan end? End of season, inc Play-offs, should we make them / need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phileas Fogg Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 hours ago, Davefevs said: He is further along than I expected. Big few weeks now, before he can really step it up. He is a fast healer judging by this. Confirmed that he did ACL and LCL, so hopefully no cartilage damage. Video included in FB post. Looking very positive. I know we only get a small snapshot of his persona from social media; but considering the 6 months he's had - he seems a very positive person. I wouldn't have blamed him at all if he wanted to retire from football after what he's been through, but he always seems to positive and buoyant. He comes across as a very likeable person and I'm really glad to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bengalcub Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 10 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said: Great to see him looking so healthy of course and I really hope his recovery stays on track. - but a bit of ‘keeps-uppy’ with nobody around is a bit different from trapping a ball in full flight from a teammate whilst holding off a committed defender! And the award for pointing out the obvious goes too ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 hours ago, Davefevs said: He is further along than I expected. Big few weeks now, before he can really step it up. He is a fast healer judging by this. Confirmed that he did ACL and LCL, so hopefully no cartilage damage. Video included in FB post. I see that video and think.. "if he can do that without fear of taking a backwards step, then it's just fitness and conditioning to go". 4 to 6 weeks maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 hours ago, marmite said: Just in case I've missed it. What date does his loan end? End of the season. Assume final day, whether that means game 46 or Wembley final I've no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfcredandwhite Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, bengalcub said: And the award for pointing out the obvious goes too ... It’s not obvious to some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderCraig Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, bengalcub said: And the award for pointing out the obvious goes too ... The award for not knowing the correct spelling of 'to' goes to ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon bristol Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said: Looking very positive. I know we only get a small snapshot of his persona from social media; but considering the 6 months he's had - he seems a very positive person. I wouldn't have blamed him at all if he wanted to retire from football after what he's been through, but he always seems to positive and buoyant. He comes across as a very likeable person and I'm really glad to see this. Agreed, he comes across so well in that video! Come on benik!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyderInACan Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said: I wouldn't have blamed him at all if he wanted to retire from football after what he's been through, but he always seems to positive and buoyant. He comes across as a very likeable person and I'm really glad to see this. His heart will be broken but I have no doubt that his rehabilitation and eventually playing football again will help his mental wellbeing as him & his family rebuild their lives. Let's not forget that he has a wife and another child as well as a wider family who will also still be grieving. It's bloody great to see him enjoying himself but let's not expect too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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