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LJ - ambition vs. safety?


headhunter

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Chatting before yesterday's game we were looking at likely managerial movements in the Premier League and whether LJ would be in contention.

If Southampton get rid after Friday would LJ be on their radar; perhaps not, big Sam to the rescue to keep them up?

If Silva get's binned by Everton I don't think LJ would be in contention for that but Howe and Dyche might be which could open the door at Bournemouth or Burnley.

LJ's credentials, if only on paper, look impressive: 18th > 17th > 11th > 8th and currently 6th in Championship and a massive profit on transfers.

Bournemouth or Burnley could easily double his salary and give him a 3 year contract - that's the equivalent of 6 years guaranteed money at the same level he is at now. I think I know what I would do in his shoes!

He'd go with SL's blessing [cue another press conference with Chairman and departing manager -like when his dad left] and probably in the knowledge that the door would be left open for him to return at some point in the future.

So the question is does LJ have ambition or does probably the safest job in football hold more appeal? Discuss

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I think in most cases that premier league teams will go with a foreign coach. If however there was 1 team who may prefer english it is bournemouth given the success of howe, and arguably lj is a similar kind of character to howe ( albeit without that level if success). Still seems unlikely to me that they would go for lj if it came to it?

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A huge factor in this hypothetical scenario  would be whether he felt we could match his ambition.

He is ambitious, and there is nothing wrong with that, but does he feel we match his ambitions?

I think if we miss out this season after potentially not investing in January, which of course we may do, he will look at his options next summer.

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3 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

A huge factor in this hypothetical scenario  would be whether he felt we could match his ambition.

He is ambitious, and there is nothing wrong with that, but does he feel we match his ambitions?

I think if we miss out this season after potentially not investing in January, which of course we may do, he will look at his options next summer.

How much did the Afobe injury eat into our budget?

We're still paying his wages until January aren't we- no insurance, no compensation.

Loan fee too wasn't there- the question for me isn't whether we will invest in Jan, but whether we meaningfully can. Last seasons accounts will be very instructive- if there is a healthy profit, then I suspect we can roll the dice somewhat.

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7 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

A huge factor in this hypothetical scenario  would be whether he felt we could match his ambition.

He is ambitious, and there is nothing wrong with that, but does he feel we match his ambitions?

I think if we miss out this season after potentially not investing in January, which of course we may do, he will look at his options next summer.

Didn't LJ sign a new deal in the spring?

Suggests he currently feels his ambition is matched.

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I don't think there is anyway any Premier League side would consider taking LJ on. 

Yes he has had the year-on-year progression with us, but don't think that's enough for a PL side to take a chance on him.

Maybe had he taken us into the play-offs the last two seasons after getting us into a position where it looked likely, instead of us fading away, he might be on the 'radar' but I really doubt he is currently.

 

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Thing with LJ he's a long term solution for any club. Majority of prem clubs are fickle and I doubt they'd give LJ the time he would need.

It's highly unlikely but a prem team going down could want some stability which LJ could potentially offer? I doubt he'd even take it 

 

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If Lee was offered a job in the Premier League, I'm sure he'd take it and I wouldn't blame him.  I was going to say I couldn't see this happening any time soon, but I guess Brighton taking a chance on Potter shows it could happen.

I wonder if Brighton considered Lee before appointing Potter from Swansea?  That is the sort of role Lee would be well suited for.

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1 hour ago, JBFC II said:

Yes he has ambition, and has I’m pretty certain he’s mentioned a few times that ambition is to get us into the Premier league

It may be his ambition, but I don't think that's on Landsdowns mind ,he's happy to remain in the championship,but I don't think we'll get there with LJ at the realm,need a more experienced manager,

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If Dyche leaves Burnley, LJ going there could be a decent fit.

They seem like a side who don't spend a huge amount, look to make a profit- don't gamble everything on survival or promotion- well run. Bournemouth in some ways seem similar, but they are now racking up larger losses and never were so financially responsible in the first place during their rise.

Sheffield United if Wilder went? That's certainly least likely of the 3 as he is an actual fan of the club, and from Sheffield- and has worked miracles there!

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56 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

I don't think there is anyway any Premier League side would consider taking LJ on. 

Yes he has had the year-on-year progression with us, but don't think that's enough for a PL side to take a chance on him.

Maybe had he taken us into the play-offs the last two seasons after getting us into a position where it looked likely, instead of us fading away, he might be on the 'radar' but I really doubt he is currently.

 

My thoughts exactly.

I don't think he has been linked with any PL job except by people on here.

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

How much did the Afobe injury eat into our budget?

We're still paying his wages until January aren't we- no insurance, no compensation.

Loan fee too wasn't there- the question for me isn't whether we will invest in Jan, but whether we meaningfully can. Last seasons accounts will be very instructive- if there is a healthy profit, then I suspect we can roll the dice somewhat.

No insurance? Surely all players are insured.

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14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I don't know, read different things on here.

@Coppello posted about it before, but can't quite remember- something about the premiums being very high so it isn't done all that often?

I know someone who runs a company that insures sportsmen and women, a very successful company! I believe he has most rugby union players and many jockeys on his books, don't know about footballers.

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3 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

I know someone who runs a company that insures sportsmen and women, a very successful company! I believe he has most rugby union players and many jockeys on his books, don't know about footballers.

Thanks, interesting stuff.

Assuming risk of long term or career ending injuries higher in football, or it seems to be- plus wages in football are by the average, surely quite a bit higher. All adds up.

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30 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

No insurance? Surely all players are insured.

I’d be very surprised if players are not insured. I’d have imagined it’s mandatory but obviously don’t know for sure.

The question with loan players like Afobe is who pays the insurance premium? Would it be Stoke as his parent club or City?  :dunno:

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2 hours ago, Redandproud said:

It may be his ambition, but I don't think that's on Landsdowns mind ,he's happy to remain in the championship,but I don't think we'll get there with LJ at the realm,need a more experienced manager,

I’ve never understood the idea of lansdown not wanting to be in the premier league. 

Hes an incredibly successful businessman, the only way you get to where he has got is through ambition, and for any owner their ambition is to see their club play at the highest level. It’s ridiculous to think he’s content in the championship and doesn’t want premier league football, if that were the case why is he still throwing millions at the football club every season?

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I don't know, read different things on here.

@Coppello posted about it before, but can't quite remember- something about the premiums being very high so it isn't done all that often?

Very few clubs insure players against injury given the premium is huge. From an insurance company's perspective, to insure a player who's on £250k a week and could easily get a six month lay-off through an ACL injury, is a huge risk. From conversations I've had, I understand clubs occasionally obtain short-term coverage for when a player is on international duty. I know that clubs have squad value insurance which covers the loss of life and I think it covers career ending injuries too.

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10 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

I’ve never understood the idea of lansdown not wanting to be in the premier league. 

Hes an incredibly successful businessman, the only way you get to where he has got is through ambition, and for any owner their ambition is to see their club play at the highest level. It’s ridiculous to think he’s content in the championship and doesn’t want premier league football, if that were the case why is he still throwing millions at the football club every season?

I think SL will get back every penny of his investment, and good for him.

Development associated with Bristol City/Sport will earn him tens of millions.

I do happen to think though that some of his ambition/ego is being satisfied courtesy of the rugby team so I wonder how much longer we should expect his generosity.

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If a Premier League club comes calling for LJ, he'd be a ******* idiot to turn it down.

His time with us has showed that he can handle the Championship just fine, and if he takes over somewhere like Norwich and burns them to the ground then he'll still get a job back in this league  I know it's silly for a Bristol City fan to suggest this, but I would think less of LJ if he didn't take a job in the top flight.

With all that being said, I'd be surprised if they bothered to look at a Championship manager, when foreign coaches would love a crack at the Premier League. There's a reason why many managers coming into the Premier League are from top European countries, and why they're often not established in England first.

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2 hours ago, Redandproud said:

It may be his ambition, but I don't think that's on Landsdowns mind ,he's happy to remain in the championship,but I don't think we'll get there with LJ at the realm,need a more experienced manager,

That's not true. As he's a successful businessman, he'll recognise that the financial benefits of getting promoted to the Premier League are huge. Our revenue would increase by £120 million a season and we would secure parachute payments for the subsequent three seasons if we were relegated. If he were to sell the club as an established Premier League side, or even a club with a season's Premier League experience to its name, the value of the club will be worth many millions more. In fact, I'd guess that the club would be worth over £100 million more if we were sold after promotion. 

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3 hours ago, headhunter said:

Chatting before yesterday's game we were looking at likely managerial movements in the Premier League and whether LJ would be in contention.

If Southampton get rid after Friday would LJ be on their radar; perhaps not, big Sam to the rescue to keep them up?

If Silva get's binned by Everton I don't think LJ would be in contention for that but Howe and Dyche might be which could open the door at Bournemouth or Burnley.

LJ's credentials, if only on paper, look impressive: 18th > 17th > 11th > 8th and currently 6th in Championship and a massive profit on transfers.

Bournemouth or Burnley could easily double his salary and give him a 3 year contract - that's the equivalent of 6 years guaranteed money at the same level he is at now. I think I know what I would do in his shoes!

He'd go with SL's blessing [cue another press conference with Chairman and departing manager -like when his dad left] and probably in the knowledge that the door would be left open for him to return at some point in the future.

So the question is does LJ have ambition or does probably the safest job in football hold more appeal? Discuss

I don't necessarily think this is the safest job in football. He's made it fairly safe by the continual improvement seen but he wouldn't survive a season of drastic decline.

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24 minutes ago, Loon plage said:

I think SL will get back every penny of his investment, and good for him.

Development associated with Bristol City/Sport will earn him tens of millions.

I do happen to think though that some of his ambition/ego is being satisfied courtesy of the rugby team so I wonder how much longer we should expect his generosity.

Probably because the rugby are so much cheaper to run. I still reckon he sees getting us to the prem as his main project and won’t stop until we are competitive in the league above (and probably not even then...)

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I think players insure themselves. That’s why the conference has some league-standard players playing in it - they’ve claimed on their policies for a bad injury, and if they go back fully professional they’d have to pay back their compensation amount.  

Not sure what that means for clubs paying wages though. 

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