spudski Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 .... there's been some talk recently of expected goals. As noted...we are doing very poorly at creating chances and sit firmly at the bottom of the league. For those unaware...this is a great article and explanation of how it works. As well as a great video explanation by the Tifo guys that speak in laymen's terms. So really easy to understand. https://www.thepunterspage.com/expected-goals-explained/ All the clubs and stat companies like Opta use these analysis. As a season pans out, they generally give an idea to how well a team are going to do. Use them with other stats...and a good picture emerges that has history of generally being proven in a ball park figure of being correct, with the odd exceptions. In our own case, we are predicted to fall away...based on games so far played. Granted...we have players to come back from injury and an opportunity to Buy/Loan again in January. And of course change our way of playing etc. Latest table can be seen here... https://experimental361.com/2019/11/03/expected-goals-league-tables-1-4-nov-2019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gazred Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Interesting. We're also joint 3rd highest scorers in the league, 6th place overall, yet have the worst defence in that top 6 by some margin. Are chances/goals really the problem? Certainly room for improvement in the overall performance of late. I take it as a positive that we are where we are without yet finding 5th gear but we do need to find it and pretty quick or as predicted above, we will fall away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted November 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, Gazred said: Interesting. We're also joint 3rd highest scorers in the league, 6th place overall, yet have the worst defence in that top 6 by some margin. Are chances/goals really the problem? Certainly room for improvement in the overall performance of late. I take it as a positive that we are where we are without yet finding 5th gear but we do need to find it and pretty quick or as predicted above, we will fall away. Yes...we are definitely bucking a trend. Basically creating very few chances, but when we do, we are quite clinical. As you say...3rd highest amount of goals, but I believe 6th worst for goal conceded. It's interesting...because as fans we can clearly see we aren't creating chances...yet many see us as sound defensively..where stats disprove this. Looking at other graphs, it shows we are very busy defending in games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I wondered earlier if the recent relative lack of goals/chances ratio- as well as missing Afobe quite clearly- is also down to a levelling out. We were scoring a higher proportion of chances up to and possibly including Stoke away...now our goals per has dropped a tad...regression to the mean? Or put another way, goals/chances higher first 6-7 games, lower next period- the two over time level out. In short...the conversion rate is/was unsustainable. Not something that could've been kept up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Basically we do not shoot enough when near goal. Too many touches or trying to lay it off for someone else. Too many sideways or backward passes, just like LJ when he was playing. Great for possession and " passes completed" stats, but not great for "expected goals" stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted November 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 41 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: I wondered earlier if the recent relative lack of goals/chances ratio- as well as missing Afobe quite clearly- is also down to a levelling out. We were scoring a higher proportion of chances up to and possibly including Stoke away...now our goals per has dropped a tad...regression to the mean? Or put another way, goals/chances higher first 6-7 games, lower next period- the two over time level out. In short...the conversion rate is/was unsustainable. Not something that could've been kept up! I find it more intriguing that of the 21 goals we've conceded, 16 of them have come in the second half. That's a massive percentage. I've often thought some of our Subs have been negative in the second half and less effective overall. Also...the majority of goals scored against us percentage wise has come around the 60 to 75 minute mark...generally when we make subs. We score most of our goals at the end of both halves. Intriguing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, marmite said: Basically we do not shoot enough when near goal. Too many touches or trying to lay it off for someone else. Too many sideways or backward passes, just like LJ when he was playing. Great for possession and " passes completed" stats, but not great for "expected goals" stats. Except our possession stats aren't great as a team either, pass completion isn't amazing. This doesn't really stack up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Gazred said: Interesting. We're also joint 3rd highest scorers in the league, 6th place overall, yet have the worst defence in that top 6 by some margin. Are chances/goals really the problem? Certainly room for improvement in the overall performance of late. I take it as a positive that we are where we are without yet finding 5th gear but we do need to find it and pretty quick or as predicted above, we will fall away. I feel playing 2 strikers is actually making us weaker defensively..not because having 2 strikers always makes a team weaker defensively, but because those 2 strikers are not good enough and need more support. If Afobe was up there, quick, strong, good touch, we'd probably be ok with 2 strikers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 46 minutes ago, spudski said: I find it more intriguing that of the 21 goals we've conceded, 16 of them have come in the second half. That's a massive percentage. I've often thought some of our Subs have been negative in the second half and less effective overall. Also...the majority of goals scored against us percentage wise has come around the 60 to 75 minute mark...generally when we make subs. We score most of our goals at the end of both halves. Intriguing... Substitutions in last game lost us the game for sure. We looked pretty comfortable before they were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Skin Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I've seen some of the arguments for and against expected goals as an indicator for how well a team is performing. I will have a look at the video too. Thanks @spudski That aside, my feeling is we haven't played that well all season and I'm still amazed how far up the league we are. I'd like to think when we have players back and really 'click' (plus a striker in Jan) we will kick on, rather than fall away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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