Jump to content
IGNORED

Cardiff City (a) – Sunday 12:00 – What Can We Expect?


Davefevs

Recommended Posts

So, high noon in South Wales on Sunday!! 

C8325778-EEAF-475A-8F24-0648BA57BC19.jpeg.deb34f2f2e0a81e409add5df146b07fd.jpeg

Old Warhorse Neil Warnock versus Young Lee Johnson (son of his old adversary Gary).  I do think Warnock genuinely has a soft spot for City, but he’s had some decisions go against him versus us (especially when Palace boss), that when his teams play ours he can’t help turning into the Pantomime Villain (or Mrs Doubtfire).

1A7E1CEA-6B31-47DE-BFBC-35ABDD8DC9A8.thumb.jpeg.f17cb2a737e2b9796a60fad9c183fd20.jpeg

His teams are rightly criticised as being very direct (and cynical - Greg ‘Lazarus’ Halford!!), but that is not to say that in the main they don’t create penalty box action, thus can be exciting too.  There are however games played out where the ball is rarely on the grass, and head-tennis played between opposition Centre-Backs and Midfielders, and that gives Warnock’s teams a stereotype he has struggled to shake off.  With Cardiff in mid-table, below where he expects them to be, he may well be at his best (worst!), and with referee Oliver Langford presiding over events, under full spotlight of the Sky TV cameras, I can see this a game where we might need to beat 12-men.

A longer read this time, had a bit more time, what with the game not being til Sunday, and having watched Cardiff a bit more than say Luton.  Hope it’s not too long?

How Do They Set Up:

In their previous home game versus Birmingham (4-2 win), they continued their 433, where the front 3 is made up of 2 wingers alongside a central forward.  Ward is suspended so will be at least one change.

6554FBD9-BC7E-4A62-BFA6-4CCC9B08E548.thumb.jpeg.12e41bbeaf5fc03c16cd38921aa3e0e2.jpeg

It’s been a variant of this all season, with sometimes a more attack minded midfielder making it a more 4231 at times....Tomlin, C.Paterson, etc.

The Players (as I expect them to line-up on Sunday):

GK: Neil Etheridge (29) – Philippine shot stopper formerly on loan with Rovers, who started with Chelsea and then went onto Fulham where he had several loans, before settling in Walsall, moving to Cardiff in 2017.  Pretty solid keeper who kicks long.

RB: Lee Peltier (32) – Liverpool youngster who’s been a regular at Championship level having initially broken through at Yeovil.  Formerly at Leeds, Leicester, Hull, Forest before signing for Cardiff in Jan 2015. Likes a tackle!

LB: Joe Bennett (29) – started at Boro, before moves to Villa, Brighton and loans to Bournemouth and Wednesday.  Steady LB who’s played every league game this season, and a better passer than Peltier...but a nasty side too, just ask Man City!

CB: Aden Flint (30) – few of us saw our cult hero CB playing for Cardiff when he left us for Boro in summer 2018, but a poor season in the fans view up north saw his move back south this summer.  A late entrant to the pro game, he’s made the most of his ability, but he’s definitely moved on from us emotionally.  A threat in our box, even if not scoring, testified by 4 assists already this season.

CB: Curtis Nelson (26) – not seen much of Nelson in a Cardiff shirt, but remember him from his Plymouth days when he looked a good prospect.  No surprise he’s playing at this level, and I think he’ll get the nod at CB on Sunday with Bamba only just returning, and Morrison out with a broken wrist.

RCM: Leandro Bacuna (28) – Dutch u21 international, who now plays for Curaçao (isn’t that a horrible blue drink, that’s seen on the shelves of bars having not been opened since 1987?).  Ex-Villa and Groningen player who is a really good player, can do it all…but prone to the odd poor moment too.

CM: Marlon Pack (28) – another player we didn’t expect to see lining up for the Bluebirds.  Had a really progressive 6 seasons at The Gate, but I think Johnson wanted his central midfield to play differently this season. £4m signing who’s got good reviews since arriving.  We all know what he’s capable of, and it will be interesting to see what he’s like in an opposition shirt.  Will it be ‘That’s what we’ve been missing’, or will it be ‘yeah, we’ve moved on’? 

LCM: Joe Ralls (26) – started in Cardiff youth set up and an underrated part of this current squad.  Left footed player with 5 goals this season, courtesy of a hat-trick last time out.  Will be the player busting a gut to pick up any nod downs / loose balls from our CBS, and springing forward from there. Sat on 4 yellow cards ahead of this game.

RW: Nathaniel Mendez-Laing (27) – arrived at Cardiff on a free transfer in their promotion (to Prem) season and started on-fire.  Bit of a journeyman until that point at the likes of Peterborough and Rochdale. Physical winger who can play either side.  Having a mixed season so far.

LW: Junior Hoilett (29) *my player to watch* – Canadian international who’s had a very good career, with 150+ games in both the Premier League and Championship.  Arrived on a free but with a rumoured £60k per week wage!  Skilful wideman who likes to cut in onto his right foot and fire in shots.  Can change a game and imho one of the best players at this level.  City have found that out during his time with QPR and Blackburn.

CF: Callum Paterson (25) – versatile Scottish international who joined from Hearts amid interest from City too.  Been in and out of the side this season, but with Glatzel injured, Ward suspended (straight red card last weekend) I expect Warnock to entrust Paterson over Bogle.

Other Players of note:

Alex Smithies (GK) who likes a penalty save

Sol Bamba (DC / DM) strong player who’s a better footballer than I’d given him credit for previously

Will Vaulks (DM) ex-Rotherham man who’s probably missing out due to Pack

Lee Tomlin (AM) we all know about him

Gary Madine, Isaac Vassell and Omar Bogle competing for seats on the bench.

How Do We Beat Them:

Firstly, this is the line-up I’d go with assuming Brownhill doesn’t recover from his back spasm, and Smith and Nagy aren’t quite ready.

                                     Bentley

Pereira | Kalas (c) | Williams | Moore | O’Dowda

                        Massengo | Rowe

                                      Palmer 

                         Weimann | Watkins

We all know that Cardiff under Warnock are gonna play back to front, rather than through the thirds.  They do this via their goalkeeper, full-backs and midfielders hitting the forwards.  The centre-back’s role is to give it to those players rather than launch it themselves.

E1594E2B-C384-44B6-9EF5-44EF8D6FE2E3.thumb.jpeg.31fdd7704222fe0fe23532e2455b0fef.jpeg

8130437C-C384-4AB6-88F3-175ACCA0236E.thumb.jpeg.546d4249c28b9f7755a6132c442b2f4b.jpeg

DA23CDE6-C9AE-4049-92A7-66BFBB7366A1.thumb.jpeg.24fa9923b6b55f98b869612f098fccb7.jpeg

[blue – successful pass, red – unsuccessful]

[green icon – ball win, Orange – loss] - look at how many battles they win (green), versus how many they lose (orange)!

In fairness, Bennett is the more cultured of the two full-backs, but you’ll see lots of balls down the channels for their wingers or centrally for the striker, hence why I think Paterson, the more physical player will get the shout.

When Etheridge and Peltier go long they pretty much give up possession.  We need Weimann and Watkins to cut the passing lanes short into the wingers.  Make them hit long and hopeful, and we get the ball back.

What about the CBs?  Let them have it! Flint doesn’t really want it, and Nelson will hit straight balls down our CB’s throats.  Where they can be a threat is when they can get simple passes into Pack that 10-15 yards further up the pitch where he can help the whole team move up the pitch, and spring passes from better positions….potentially diags in behind our WBs to Hoilett and Mendez-Laing or getting Bacuna and Ralls on the ball in better positions.  This is where Palmer comes in, just sit him on Pack and make Flint and Nelson go long, but from deep.  Pack won’t move Palmer around too much, so he won’t use up too much energy trying to press like a typical midfielder.

96FBC93F-F981-4075-8BB8-B64706EE42A8.thumb.jpeg.997042bb81721fe669f50e13384a173e.jpeg

The other aspect defensively is that assuming we go with a 5212 we will have two spare CBs most of the time.  It is important that the spare one on either side of Williams helps their nearest WB, e.g. Kalas help PereiraMoore (or Baker) help O’Dowda (or Rowe).  That may mean Williams becoming the marker of Paterson, rather than the spare man, and Kalas or Moore becoming the ’sweeper’ depending on the side of the pitch the ball is on.  They are gonna need to shift across the pitch as a three, rather than stick to their man.

F3CFA6D1-548E-43DC-8E83-E68803F564C7.jpeg.04ae80c5d333bb898886c9b70f857a7e.jpeg

1.     Watkins closing Peltier’s passing lanes (red arrows)….only Flint or Etheridge a good option (blue arrows)

2.     Palmer sat on Pack, no need to press anyone else – Rowe and Massengo not getting dragged too far apart either

3.     Our 3 Centre-backs shifting across to support O’Dowda, Williams now marking Paterson, allowing Moore to cover the space behind and be in touch should Paterson run the channel off of Williams.  Kalas becomes the spare man.

So that’s how we get the ball back!  What do we do with the ball?

Either Kalas and Moore have got to use the space in front of them to progress with the ball, to draw Hoilett and Mendez-Laing inside so they can feed our wingbacks.  If that isn’t on, then Massengo and Rowe will need to be brave to receive passes in from them back to goal, to then feed it wide.  If they can get Palmer on the ball facing up Pack, then we can get some joy exposing Flint and Nelson, who won’t want to have Palmer sliding in Weimann.

Probably not a game to see our WBs getting to the by-line, but they must give angles for our midfield to keep the ball.

Needs to be a battle of contrasting styles.  I can’t see us winning a game trying to match their physicality, hence why I’d go Moore over Baker, to help us when we get the ball.  He’s showed he can relied upon this season.  Will be a long afternoon if we give it away cheaply. 

Summary:

A tough game to call, but this isn’t the same Cardiff team that got promoted in 17/18.  Would take a draw if you offered it to me now, but a chance for Lee Johnson to outsmart the wily old bugger too.  Performance / identity, equally as important as result in my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Davefevs great write up, in the past we’ve been bullied by Cardiff and I’m sure that will be their tactic Sunday.

I would look to play Moore in front of a back 4, he’s good on the ball and can shield the back 4. I don’t think Brownhill will be for. I think Smith may start.

Interesting re how you’d play Palmer 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good write up again @Davefevs - as I said in a previous thread, set pieces will in my opinion be our biggest threat, so wouldn't be surprised to see the 11 reflect that.

With 3 CB's, as you alluded to too I'd be concerned with them feeding Hoilett and ML running the channels when our WB's get forward. Although they've not found the same form as previous seasons, I ideally don't want to see those two running at Williams or Moore with space too often. 

For us - I agree I'd like to see Palmer play, buzzing around in front of that back 4 with the movement of Weimann we can create chances.

Small prediction, first Massengo goal tomorrow. 

COYR

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

So, high noon in South Wales on Sunday!! 

C8325778-EEAF-475A-8F24-0648BA57BC19.jpeg.deb34f2f2e0a81e409add5df146b07fd.jpeg

Old Warhorse Neil Warnock versus Young Lee Johnson (son of his old adversary Gary).  I do think Warnock genuinely has a soft spot for City, but he’s had some decisions go against him versus us (especially when Palace boss), that when his teams play ours he can’t help turning into the Pantomime Villain (or Mrs Doubtfire).

1A7E1CEA-6B31-47DE-BFBC-35ABDD8DC9A8.thumb.jpeg.f17cb2a737e2b9796a60fad9c183fd20.jpeg

His teams are rightly criticised as being very direct (and cynical - Greg ‘Lazarus’ Halford!!), but that is not to say that in the main they don’t create penalty box action, thus can be exciting too.  There are however games played out where the ball is rarely on the grass, and head-tennis played between opposition Centre-Backs and Midfielders, and that gives Warnock’s teams a stereotype he has struggled to shake off.  With Cardiff in mid-table, below where he expects them to be, he may well be at his best (worst!), and with referee Oliver Langford presiding over events, under full spotlight of the Sky TV cameras, I can see this a game where we might need to beat 12-men.

A longer read this time, had a bit more time, what with the game not being til Sunday, and having watched Cardiff a bit more than say Luton.  Hope it’s not too long?

How Do They Set Up:

In their previous home game versus Birmingham (4-2 win), they continued their 433, where the front 3 is made up of 2 wingers alongside a central forward.  Ward is suspended so will be at least one change.

6554FBD9-BC7E-4A62-BFA6-4CCC9B08E548.thumb.jpeg.12e41bbeaf5fc03c16cd38921aa3e0e2.jpeg

It’s been a variant of this all season, with sometimes a more attack minded midfielder making it a more 4231 at times....Tomlin, C.Paterson, etc.

The Players (as I expect them to line-up on Sunday):

GK: Neil Etheridge (29) – Philippine shot stopper formerly on loan with Rovers, who started with Chelsea and then went onto Fulham where he had several loans, before settling in Walsall, moving to Cardiff in 2017.  Pretty solid keeper who kicks long.

RB: Lee Peltier (32) – Liverpool youngster who’s been a regular at Championship level having initially broken through at Yeovil.  Formerly at Leeds, Leicester, Hull, Forest before signing for Cardiff in Jan 2015. Likes a tackle!

LB: Joe Bennett (29) – started at Boro, before moves to Villa, Brighton and loans to Bournemouth and Wednesday.  Steady LB who’s played every league game this season, and a better passer than Peltier...but a nasty side too, just ask Man City!

CB: Aden Flint (30) – few of us saw our cult hero CB playing for Cardiff when he left us for Boro in summer 2018, but a poor season in the fans view up north saw his move back south this summer.  A late entrant to the pro game, he’s made the most of his ability, but he’s definitely moved on from us emotionally.  A threat in our box, even if not scoring, testified by 4 assists already this season.

CB: Curtis Nelson (26) – not seen much of Nelson in a Cardiff shirt, but remember him from his Plymouth days when he looked a good prospect.  No surprise he’s playing at this level, and I think he’ll get the nod at CB on Sunday with Bamba only just returning, and Morrison out with a broken wrist.

RCM: Leandro Bacuna (28) – Dutch u21 international, who now plays for Curaçao (isn’t that a horrible blue drink, that’s seen on the shelves of bars having not been opened since 1987?).  Ex-Villa and Groningen player who is a really good player, can do it all…but prone to the odd poor moment too.

CM: Marlon Pack (28) – another player we didn’t expect to see lining up for the Bluebirds.  Had a really progressive 6 seasons at The Gate, but I think Johnson wanted his central midfield to play differently this season. £4m signing who’s got good reviews since arriving.  We all know what he’s capable of, and it will be interesting to see what he’s like in an opposition shirt.  Will it be ‘That’s what we’ve been missing’, or will it be ‘yeah, we’ve moved on’? 

LCM: Joe Ralls (26) – started in Cardiff youth set up and an underrated part of this current squad.  Left footed player with 5 goals this season, courtesy of a hat-trick last time out.  Will be the player busting a gut to pick up any nod downs / loose balls from our CBS, and springing forward from there. Sat on 4 yellow cards ahead of this game.

RW: Nathaniel Mendez-Laing (27) – arrived at Cardiff on a free transfer in their promotion (to Prem) season and started on-fire.  Bit of a journeyman until that point at the likes of Peterborough and Rochdale. Physical winger who can play either side.  Having a mixed season so far.

LW: Junior Hoilett (29) *my player to watch* – Canadian international who’s had a very good career, with 150+ games in both the Premier League and Championship.  Arrived on a free but with a rumoured £60k per week wage!  Skilful wideman who likes to cut in onto his right foot and fire in shots.  Can change a game and imho one of the best players at this level.  City have found that out during his time with QPR and Blackburn.

CF: Callum Paterson (25) – versatile Scottish international who joined from Hearts amid interest from City too.  Been in and out of the side this season, but with Glatzel injured, Ward suspended (straight red card last weekend) I expect Warnock to entrust Paterson over Bogle.

Other Players of note:

Alex Smithies (GK) who likes a penalty save

Sol Bamba (DC / DM) strong player who’s a better footballer than I’d given him credit for previously

Will Vaulks (DM) ex-Rotherham man who’s probably missing out due to Pack

Lee Tomlin (AM) we all know about him

Gary Madine, Isaac Vassell and Omar Bogle competing for seats on the bench.

How Do We Beat Them:

Firstly, this is the line-up I’d go with assuming Brownhill doesn’t recover from his back spasm, and Smith and Nagy aren’t quite ready.

                                     Bentley

Pereira | Kalas (c) | Williams | Moore | O’Dowda

                        Massengo | Rowe

                                      Palmer 

                         Weimann | Watkins

We all know that Cardiff under Warnock are gonna play back to front, rather than through the thirds.  They do this via their goalkeeper, full-backs and midfielders hitting the forwards.  The centre-back’s role is to give it to those players rather than launch it themselves.

E1594E2B-C384-44B6-9EF5-44EF8D6FE2E3.thumb.jpeg.31fdd7704222fe0fe23532e2455b0fef.jpeg

8130437C-C384-4AB6-88F3-175ACCA0236E.thumb.jpeg.546d4249c28b9f7755a6132c442b2f4b.jpeg

DA23CDE6-C9AE-4049-92A7-66BFBB7366A1.thumb.jpeg.24fa9923b6b55f98b869612f098fccb7.jpeg

[blue – successful pass, red – unsuccessful]

[green icon – ball win, Orange – loss] - look at how many battles they win (green), versus how many they lose (orange)!

In fairness, Bennett is the more cultured of the two full-backs, but you’ll see lots of balls down the channels for their wingers or centrally for the striker, hence why I think Paterson, the more physical player will get the shout.

When Etheridge and Peltier go long they pretty much give up possession.  We need Weimann and Watkins to cut the passing lanes short into the wingers.  Make them hit long and hopeful, and we get the ball back.

What about the CBs?  Let them have it! Flint doesn’t really want it, and Nelson will hit straight balls down our CB’s throats.  Where they can be a threat is when they can get simple passes into Pack that 10-15 yards further up the pitch where he can help the whole team move up the pitch, and spring passes from better positions….potentially diags in behind our WBs to Hoilett and Mendez-Laing or getting Bacuna and Ralls on the ball in better positions.  This is where Palmer comes in, just sit him on Pack and make Flint and Nelson go long, but from deep.  Pack won’t move Palmer around too much, so he won’t use up too much energy trying to press like a typical midfielder.

96FBC93F-F981-4075-8BB8-B64706EE42A8.thumb.jpeg.997042bb81721fe669f50e13384a173e.jpeg

The other aspect defensively is that assuming we go with a 5212 we will have two spare CBs most of the time.  It is important that the spare one on either side of Williams helps their nearest WB, e.g. Kalas help PereiraMoore (or Baker) help O’Dowda (or Rowe).  That may mean Williams becoming the marker of Paterson, rather than the spare man, and Kalas or Moore becoming the ’sweeper’ depending on the side of the pitch the ball is on.  They are gonna need to shift across the pitch as a three, rather than stick to their man.

F3CFA6D1-548E-43DC-8E83-E68803F564C7.jpeg.04ae80c5d333bb898886c9b70f857a7e.jpeg

1.     Watkins closing Peltier’s passing lanes (red arrows)….only Flint or Etheridge a good option (blue arrows)

2.     Palmer sat on Pack, no need to press anyone else – Rowe and Massengo not getting dragged too far apart either

3.     Our 3 Centre-backs shifting across to support O’Dowda, Williams now marking Paterson, allowing Moore to cover the space behind and be in touch should Paterson run the channel off of Williams.  Kalas becomes the spare man.

So that’s how we get the ball back!  What do we do with the ball?

Either Kalas and Moore have got to use the space in front of them to progress with the ball, to draw Hoilett and Mendez-Laing inside so they can feed our wingbacks.  If that isn’t on, then Massengo and Rowe will need to be brave to receive passes in from them back to goal, to then feed it wide.  If they can get Palmer on the ball facing up Pack, then we can get some joy exposing Flint and Nelson, who won’t want to have Palmer sliding in Weimann.

Probably not a game to see our WBs getting to the by-line, but they must give angles for our midfield to keep the ball.

Needs to be a battle of contrasting styles.  I can’t see us winning a game trying to match their physicality, hence why I’d go Moore over Baker, to help us when we get the ball.  He’s showed he can relied upon this season.  Will be a long afternoon if we give it away cheaply. 

Summary:

A tough game to call, but this isn’t the same Cardiff team that got promoted in 17/18.  Would take a draw if you offered it to me now, but a chance for Lee Johnson to outsmart the wily old bugger too.  Performance / identity, equally as important as result in my opinion.

I’ve just had a message from LJ , he asks if you could do your threads earlier in the week so him can get the team coached in your game plan.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Alessandro said:

Good write up again @Davefevs - as I said in a previous thread, set pieces will in my opinion be our biggest threat, so wouldn't be surprised to see the 11 reflect that.

With 3 CB's, as you alluded to too I'd be concerned with them feeding Hoilett and ML running the channels when our WB's get forward. Although they've not found the same form as previous seasons, I ideally don't want to see those two running at Williams or Moore with space too often. 

For us - I agree I'd like to see Palmer play, buzzing around in front of that back 4 with the movement of Weimann we can create chances.

Small prediction, first Massengo goal tomorrow. 

COYR

Yes, don’t expect to see them ‘bombing’...more progressively moving up the pitch as a team, never too far ahead of the ball.  
Moore has a bit of pace though (as does Kalas, who’s effortlessly rapid when he needs to).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a dreadful record we have at their place.

I was there at the Scotty Murray game, the amount of people who have said they were there you'd think we took 12000 that day, I'd be surprised if it was 2k, but I'm sure I remember someone saying that day that Cardiff hadn't beaten us since 1971 or something like that, now it feels like decades since we last won there.

Time to change momentum again, I'm going for a very confident* 0-2 win with a red card to each team

* not at all confident 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BobbyC said:

" Former City playmaker Lee Tomlin is another doubt due to a knock, although Warnock added: "He has trained. I’ve not heard anything this morning untoward, he’s trained, the last couple of days. "

They'll probably just wheel him out for that late free kick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...