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Davefevs

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1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The control and baseline performance levels though are often down on 2017/18 for sure, this started last season and has continued now- yet I'm not so worried about the home form this time around either.

Again, with form and performance levels being 2 different things it's not wholly relevant (not wholly irrelevant either) .

Theoretically a team could play terrible in every game, but finish the season with a perfect record of 46 1-0 wins.

Their form and performance would be polar opposites.

 

If someone is complaining about our home performances, that is coming from a perfectly valid place.

If someone is complaining about our home form this season, that is not.

 

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38 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Otherwise known as 15th in the home league table.

Are we going for promotion to the Premier Home League? :) 

It does seem that historically LJ is more adept at setting his teams up for away games, and our away form reflects that. This season, with our full squad available, I do think we would have seen improved home form and results. As it is, the changes LJ has been forced into as a result of our injury issues has meant us being more suited to away games than being on the front foot at Ashton Gate.

Seeing key players returning should hopefully see us getting stronger, although I think that the prolonged loss of Afobe is the biggest problem to us improving at Ashton Gate.

 

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28 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Misleading though as we've only played 7.

Extrapolated over 8, well I'll have a look now- adjusted and extrapolated then it's different- we'd have another point or 2.

Swansea with a game more are 12th in the Home League table, Nottingham Forest are 13th and just one point ahead at home.

Leeds won their first 4 away games in pretty dominant style yet at home couldn't finish sides- it's that sort of division in some ways!

Oh and West Brom are 9th in the home form table- you know WBA who have lost once all season, top of the table and score reasonably freely- a massive one point above us.

One significant reason for home teams not having impressive records is - the away team. 

The expectation of your own fans, the onus of home teams to be on the front foot and play attacking high tempo football all adds psychological pressure on your players and some of them can’t cope with it - we see regularly at AG.

Thats why City are pretty good away - no expectation, no pressure.

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1 minute ago, Robbored said:

One significant reason for home teams not having impressive records is - the away team. 

The expectation of your own fans, the onus of home teams to be on the front foot and play attacking high tempo football all adds psychological pressure on your players and some of them can’t cope with it - we see regularly at AG.

Thats why City are pretty good away - no expectation, no pressure.

Well yes- 2 sides on the pitch after all!

Would also say the rise in counterattacking game in modern football plays a role too, in addition to what you suggest plays a part. Number of factors basically.

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9 hours ago, Chris_Brown said:

I'd be interested to know how many minutes our most frequent back line has played together. I'd bet it's not many. I don't even think I could name it. Rowe & Moore are the only two I'd be sure on. 

Out of interest, do you want that answer for a back 3 or back 5....or both?

Back 5 will take a bit longer, but so far this season - league games only, starting eleven only:

Kalas / Moore - 90 mins

Wright / Kalas / Baker - 72 mins

Moore / Kalas / Baker - 212 mins (90+90+32)

Moore / Baker - 90 mins

Moore / Williams / Baker - 253 mins (18+30+57+45+58+45) - never completed a 90 together

Moore / Williams - 180 mins (90+90)

Kalas / Williams / Moore - 72 mins

Kalas / Williams / Baker - 90 mins

So 8 combinations in 16 league games.  6 starts the most, but never completed a 90 together!

With all the changes, imposed through injury, or imposed by our head-coach, it’s amazing we’ve looked pretty solid in most games.

If you add Dasilva / Rowe and Pereira / Hunt into the mix...

Hunt / Moore / Kalas / Baker / Rowe - 140 mins (58+82)

Pereira / Moore / Williams / Rowe - 180 mins (90+90)

Incredible!!

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11 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Out of interest, do you want that answer for a back 3 or back 5....or both?

Back 5 will take a bit longer, but so far this season - league games only, starting eleven only:

Kalas / Moore - 90 mins

Wright / Kalas / Baker - 72 mins

Moore / Kalas / Baker - 212 mins (90+90+32)

Moore / Baker - 90 mins

Moore / Williams / Baker - 253 mins (18+30+57+45+58+45) - never completed a 90 together

Moore / Williams - 180 mins (90+90)

Kalas / Williams / Moore - 72 mins

Kalas / Williams / Baker - 90 mins

So 8 combinations in 16 league games.  6 starts the most, but never completed a 90 together!

With all the changes, imposed through injury, or imposed by our head-coach, it’s amazing we’ve looked pretty solid in most games.

If you add Dasilva / Rowe and Pereira / Hunt into the mix...

Hunt / Moore / Kalas / Baker / Rowe - 140 mins (58+82)

Pereira / Moore / Williams / Rowe - 180 mins (90+90)

Incredible!!

Absolutely incredible. Thanks very much. Did you have to put in the hard yards for those or does your stat program work it all out for you? 

So we've been really unsettled across all five at the back. If all were available, does LJ know his best selection, or does he even have one? I suspect it's horses for courses. Having at least a part settled back line would improve things, but we've had problems all across. I expect Kalas will be a steady selection and the way that Williams has been playing he'd be in there too. Rowe has done very well in an unfamiliar position. Moore seems to be the one sacrificed if we change to a 4, which has seemed unfair to me at times. Baker has done well for the most part but I'd never lay money on him finishing a game.

I'd be interested to know how many games Wright has actually be available for, I like him but I think he's probably done here.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Chris_Brown said:

Absolutely incredible. Thanks very much. Did you have to put in the hard yards for those or does your stat program work it all out for you? 

So we've been really unsettled across all five at the back. If all were available, does LJ know his best selection, or does he even have one? I suspect it's horses for courses. Having at least a part settled back line would improve things, but we've had problems all across. I expect Kalas will be a steady selection and the way that Williams has been playing he'd be in there too. Rowe has done very well in an unfamiliar position. Moore seems to be the one sacrificed if we change to a 4, which has seemed unfair to me at times. Baker has done well for the most part but I'd never lay money on him finishing a game.

I'd be interested to know how many games Wright has actually be available for, I like him but I think he's probably done here.

 

 

I have a spreadsheet. One of the “views” I have is by lineup, 11 columns starting with keeper, then defence (right to left), midfield (ditto), forwards (ditto).  I also have a formation column, so I know that if Rowe is in column 6 it’s a LWB. 
 

it still needs manually inputting and a bit of pen and paper to respond. But the data is there. BF6F2AA7-BF55-414A-9853-6A846AE1F265.thumb.jpeg.2f56a48ab93f6e41cf1d94062540853b.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I have a spreadsheet. One of the “views” I have is by lineup, 11 columns starting with keeper, then defence (right to left), midfield (ditto), forwards (ditto).  I also have a formation column, so I know that if Rowe is in column 6 it’s a LWB. 
 

it still needs manually inputting and a bit of pen and paper to respond. But the data is there. 

shocked philip j fry GIF

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On 10/11/2019 at 15:08, Davefevs said:

5131747D-6AF1-4F7F-803B-1B541A6A2600.thumb.jpeg.dd281c86758f6f08a27eae3a4c739c84.jpeg

16 games in.

6th place, 2 points ahead of Fulham, 3 ahead of Wednesday.

Looks so much healthier than 22 hours ago.

We’ve also only played 7 at home (I think our home form is improving too) and 9 away.

Unbeaten in 4 after the reverse at Luton...2 wins, 2 draws...is a good response.  You can’t be fussy who you get your points against.  Had we won last week and drew today, we’d still have the same points, yet this seems more satisfying.

The hope is now that with players returning from injury we cement our place in the top 6.

@Davefevs much as i'd like to think you are correct, where is the evidence of this? Too many draws at home, against sides that we should be beating, for us to be considered as genuine promotion candidates.

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24 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

@Davefevs much as i'd like to think you are correct, where is the evidence of this? Too many draws at home, against sides that we should be beating, for us to be considered as genuine promotion candidates.

Seems like the home form is getting better as @Davefevs indicated;

 

Form: Last 4 matches (AT HOME)

    GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Derby County 4 4 0 0 8 2 +6 12
2 Leeds Utd 4 4 0 0 6 1 +5 12
3 Preston 4 3 1 0 12 5 +7 10
4 Millwall 4 3 1 0 8 4 +4 10
5 Reading 4 3 0 1 7 5 +2 9
6 Birmingham City 4 3 0 1 5 3 +2 9
7 Nottm Forest 4 3 0 1 4 2 +2 9
8 West Bromwich 4 2 2 0 12 8 +4 8
9 Huddersfield 4 2 2 0 6 2 +4 8
10 Bristol City 4 2 2 0 5 3 +2 8
11 Sheffield Wed 4 2 2 0 4 2 +2 8
12 Cardiff City 4 2 1 1 8 4 +4 7
13 Fulham 4 2 1 1 7 7 0 7
14 Charlton 4 2 0 2 5 3 +2 6
15 Hull City 4 2 0 2 5 4 +1 6
16 Wigan Athletic 4 2 0 2 3 5 -2 6
17 QP Rangers 4 1 2 1 9 9 0 5
18 Blackburn 4 1 2 1 6 6 0 5
19 Brentford 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5
20 Luton Town 4 1 1 2 5 6 -1 4
21 Swansea City 4 1 1 2 3 6 -3 4
22 Barnsley 4 0 3 1 7 9 -2 3
23 Stoke City 4 1 0 3 4 6 -2 3
24 Middlesbrough 4 0 2 2 2 6 -4 2
 

Form: Last 8 matches (AT HOME)

    GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Preston 8 6 2 0 22 10 +12 20
2 Cardiff City 8 5 2 1 14 7 +7 17
3 Millwall 8 5 2 1 12 7 +5 17
4 Leeds Utd 8 5 2 1 9 4 +5 17
5 Birmingham City 8 5 1 2 10 6 +4 16
6 Derby County 8 4 3 1 11 6 +5 15
7 Sheffield Wed 8 4 3 1 9 5 +4 15
8 Fulham 8 4 2 2 15 10 +5 14
9 West Bromwich 7 3 4 0 17 12 +5 13
10 Charlton 8 4 1 3 10 6 +4 13
11 Nottm Forest 7 4 1 2 9 5 +4 13
12 Swansea City 8 4 1 3 11 10 +1 13
13 Wigan Athletic 8 4 1 3 8 9 -1 13
14 Blackburn 8 3 3 2 10 8 +2 12
15 Bristol City 7 3 3 1 10 8 +2 12
16 Reading 8 4 0 4 12 12 0 12
17 QP Rangers 8 3 2 3 16 17 -1 11
18 Brentford 7 2 3 2 8 6 +2 9
19 Middlesbrough 8 2 3 3 5 8 -3 9
20 Luton Town 7 2 2 3 11 12 -1 8
21 Hull City 8 2 2 4 10 12 -2 8
22 Huddersfield 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
23 Stoke City 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Barnsley 8 0 4 4 11 19 -8 4
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On 11/11/2019 at 13:32, JamesBCFC said:

Home form this season is P7 W3 D3 L1.

Over 1.7 points per game, otherwise known as playoff form.

 

Amazing with such a clueless manager...

The same as the away form in fact, where we are apparently so much better.

It ain't pretty at times, that's for sure, but home or away we are getting the same return.

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2 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

Seems like the home form is getting better as @Davefevs indicated;

 

Form: Last 4 matches (AT HOME)

    GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Derby County 4 4 0 0 8 2 +6 12
2 Leeds Utd 4 4 0 0 6 1 +5 12
3 Preston 4 3 1 0 12 5 +7 10
4 Millwall 4 3 1 0 8 4 +4 10
5 Reading 4 3 0 1 7 5 +2 9
6 Birmingham City 4 3 0 1 5 3 +2 9
7 Nottm Forest 4 3 0 1 4 2 +2 9
8 West Bromwich 4 2 2 0 12 8 +4 8
9 Huddersfield 4 2 2 0 6 2 +4 8
10 Bristol City 4 2 2 0 5 3 +2 8
11 Sheffield Wed 4 2 2 0 4 2 +2 8
12 Cardiff City 4 2 1 1 8 4 +4 7
13 Fulham 4 2 1 1 7 7 0 7
14 Charlton 4 2 0 2 5 3 +2 6
15 Hull City 4 2 0 2 5 4 +1 6
16 Wigan Athletic 4 2 0 2 3 5 -2 6
17 QP Rangers 4 1 2 1 9 9 0 5
18 Blackburn 4 1 2 1 6 6 0 5
19 Brentford 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5
20 Luton Town 4 1 1 2 5 6 -1 4
21 Swansea City 4 1 1 2 3 6 -3 4
22 Barnsley 4 0 3 1 7 9 -2 3
23 Stoke City 4 1 0 3 4 6 -2 3
24 Middlesbrough 4 0 2 2 2 6 -4 2
 

Form: Last 8 matches (AT HOME)

    GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Preston 8 6 2 0 22 10 +12 20
2 Cardiff City 8 5 2 1 14 7 +7 17
3 Millwall 8 5 2 1 12 7 +5 17
4 Leeds Utd 8 5 2 1 9 4 +5 17
5 Birmingham City 8 5 1 2 10 6 +4 16
6 Derby County 8 4 3 1 11 6 +5 15
7 Sheffield Wed 8 4 3 1 9 5 +4 15
8 Fulham 8 4 2 2 15 10 +5 14
9 West Bromwich 7 3 4 0 17 12 +5 13
10 Charlton 8 4 1 3 10 6 +4 13
11 Nottm Forest 7 4 1 2 9 5 +4 13
12 Swansea City 8 4 1 3 11 10 +1 13
13 Wigan Athletic 8 4 1 3 8 9 -1 13
14 Blackburn 8 3 3 2 10 8 +2 12
15 Bristol City 7 3 3 1 10 8 +2 12
16 Reading 8 4 0 4 12 12 0 12
17 QP Rangers 8 3 2 3 16 17 -1 11
18 Brentford 7 2 3 2 8 6 +2 9
19 Middlesbrough 8 2 3 3 5 8 -3 9
20 Luton Town 7 2 2 3 11 12 -1 8
21 Hull City 8 2 2 4 10 12 -2 8
22 Huddersfield 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
23 Stoke City 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4
24 Barnsley 8 0 4 4 11 19 -8 4

We have a game in hand over most teams in that second table, not a fair comparison.

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28 minutes ago, Drew Peacock said:

We have a game in hand over most teams in that second table, not a fair comparison.

It was meant to illustrate that in the last few games our home results are better.

It wasn't meant as a comparison to other teams.

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22 minutes ago, Eastside Moonwalker said:

Gutting we've lost points against Luton, Boro, Barnsley and Wigan though..We never make it easy for ourselves

There are no easy matches in this division the margins are wafer thin .

Had we beaten Barnsley and drawn in Cardiff very few people would have complained. 
 

Whilst I agree that the return against those afore mentioned clubs is a little disappointing we have and will beat some better teams when we don’t expect it .

What matters at the end of the season is how many points you’ve won in total . 
 

I am absolutely buzzing with our results this season and winning at Cardiff was huge not least because it keeps us in the top six . 
 

Strap yourself in and enjoy the ride .

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55 minutes ago, Drew Peacock said:

The same as the away form in fact, where we are apparently so much better.

It ain't pretty at times, that's for sure, but home or away we are getting the same return.

Away form is marginally better, 1.77 ppg opposed to 1.71. Before Sundays win it was 1.63 ppg for away games- shows how quick it changes this early in the season.

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On 11/11/2019 at 09:21, JamesBCFC said:

Again, with form and performance levels being 2 different things it's not wholly relevant (not wholly irrelevant either) .

Theoretically a team could play terrible in every game, but finish the season with a perfect record of 46 1-0 wins.

Their form and performance would be polar opposites.

 

If someone is complaining about our home performances, that is coming from a perfectly valid place.

If someone is complaining about our home form this season, that is not.

 

You're obviously correct that form and performances are different. Teams that perform poorly can get good results, and vice versa.

The worry for me is that if you look at the big picture, if you look at the relationship between form and performance over months, across many games, across seasons even, then you tend to see that results tend to move up or down to match the quality of performances. This can occasionally happen quite drastically as a long period of results that outstrip performances very suddenly comes to an end. I don't know what your opinion of xG (and the expected goal difference derived from it) is but this is an area where it actually shows some fairly clear validity. Not to flood the thread with images but if you check out this page https://experimental361.com/2019/05/06/championship-trends-2018-19/ then you'll see what I mean. The graphs on that page show the long term comparison of performance v result over the last 3 seasons. Any team can get a string of results that outperform (or indeed underperform) their underlying performances (as measured by xG) for months, for half a season in some cases - but, results always comes back to match the performance in the end.

We've been getting results, no doubt about that. However we have been consistently and in some cases spectacularly outperformed this season. In actual fact we've been doing this since roughly the middle of last season - the time we went on that 9 win run - even during that run we weren't really playing brilliantly. Basically - we've either been lucky or we are particularly above average at some particular aspect of the game; either defence or attack. Given the length of our over-performance I'd tend to suspect that we have had some luck, but that our strong defence is actually helping us to get these results. Teams are taking a lot of shots against us (an average of 16 per game this season), but our defence is limiting these to long range efforts and scrappy close shots (shown by our opponents' xG plots that have many small steps but few big jumps). Sometimes it doesn't work - see Brentford's goal, sometimes we'll concede penalties as at Preston, sometimes we'll get lucky - as Cardiff hit the bar twice. However, by combining a good defence with Bentley playing well we are keeping the ball out of the net more than we have a right to.

Either way we are well, well, overdue a regression to match our performances. Either that luck or skill is going to break at some point.

Now, of course for all this analysis and stat-chat - for some it doesn't matter. Your theoretical 46 game run of 1-0 wins is possible, and naturally it would result in a famous season with record points and a spectacular promotion. Fans would laud that team as sensational. However, anyone putting money on that same team to repeat that feat in the following season would be sorely misguided.

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5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I have a spreadsheet. One of the “views” I have is by lineup, 11 columns starting with keeper, then defence (right to left), midfield (ditto), forwards (ditto).  I also have a formation column, so I know that if Rowe is in column 6 it’s a LWB. 
 

it still needs manually inputting and a bit of pen and paper to respond. But the data is there. BF6F2AA7-BF55-414A-9853-6A846AE1F265.thumb.jpeg.2f56a48ab93f6e41cf1d94062540853b.jpeg

Is this your bit of paper Dave?

303459671_mathsformula.jpg.35fd866ef81f9d2879a88c839f35295e.jpg

 

:)

 

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