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Nahki Wells - SIGNING CONFIRMED


Banjo Red

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7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Good points.

I'm not sure where we fit him in to be honest.

I like how Fam is doing. Weimann has been a bit poor for a while. But where we now play Weimann is not Well's position.

Is not that Fam is better than Wells. It's that they're completely different so I can't see us just playing Wells instead of Fam and us doing better.

We'd probably have to change a few things to make it work. Yet we've just won 3 in a row. Not conceded in those games and our performances are gradually improving. 

Fam is a weird one because think he needs to score one of his chances last night. On the other hand he occupied a defender on the long ball that led to our goal. 
 

Then with Weimann he isn’t the goal scorer that Wells is but he will offer much more work defensively. Might be a case of Wells plays home games? 

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17 minutes ago, Coppello said:

This is my concern with the deal. It goes against the way we've operated for the past few years of buying young players with a sell-on value. I'm concerned that, if it does not work out, we could spend the next four windows paying for it. Yes, I would like a striker but I'm a little apprehensive. 

Maybe after two seasons of failed promotion bids they have tweaked the ethos a bit and decided that the odd player purchased with proven credentials is worth it?

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5 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

 

Am I missing something? Window closes Friday night so of course we are trying to get it done before QPR

Depends on when players need to be registered with regards to the transfer window closing.

Do players need to be registered before midday Friday to be eligible to play Saturday or can they sign at 10:55pm Friday & still be eligible?

What happens if the Wells deal is confirmed between those two times? He can’t play against QPR but can play for us for the rest of the season?

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30 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I thought they often did that bit before fee being agreed? Or are you saying you know that is the case.

Er, that’s against the rules. 

Were not allowed to speak to the player without permission being granted... which effectively means we must agree the fee. 

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4 minutes ago, Galway Red said:

Might be that he has to be registered by 17:00 to be eligible to play on Saturday? 

Yea I did think that after I posted but imagine at this point getting the deal done sooner rather is best regardless of QPR. 

 

2 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Yeah, you're missing the fact I have a couple of toddlers so have no concept of time at the moment! 

Haha I’ve been there just thought I was missing something

 

2 minutes ago, Tipps69 said:

Depends on when players need to be registered with regards to the transfer window closing.

Do players need to be registered before midday Friday to be eligible to play Saturday or can they sign at 10:55pm Friday & still be eligible?

What happens if the Wells deal is confirmed between those two times? He can’t play against QPR but can play for us for the rest of the season?

Think it is usually the noon one. Don’t think the deadline would change it. Just think at this point getting him is more important than getting him for Saturday where he probably would not feature anyway or would be minimal

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5 minutes ago, Tinmans Love Child said:

Maybe after two seasons of failed promotion bids they have tweaked the ethos a bit and decided that the odd player purchased with proven credentials is worth it?

I don't disagree with that point. I was concerned about the rumoured £5m fee which, according to KITR, is not accurate and his undoubted high salary. Like you said, the odd player could be worth it, but I hope we don't get into the position of signing a lot of old players on expensive deals. Like I said, I'm not against signing him, I just don't want to spend the next two years paying for it. 

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5 minutes ago, Coppello said:

I don't disagree with that point. I was concerned about the rumoured £5m fee which, according to KITR, is not accurate and his undoubted high salary. Like you said, the odd player could be worth it, but I hope we don't get into the position of signing a lot of old players on expensive deals. Like I said, I'm not against signing him, I just don't want to spend the next two years paying for it. 

One swallow does not a summer make.....or something like that!  Agreed, we don’t want to start buying journeymen, but I’m happy with a good balance

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9 minutes ago, Coppello said:

This is my concern with the deal. It goes against the way we've operated for the past few years of buying young players with a sell-on value. I'm concerned that, if it does not work out, we could spend the next four windows paying for it. Yes, I would like a striker but I'm a little apprehensive. 

Ok, quickly crunched some figures.

Currently we sit in 6th place on 47 points from 29 games. The average points for 6th position over the past decade is roughly 73 points. So we need another 26 points to get to that average - 73 doesn't guarantee a play off spot but if you get that many points you are as likely as not to get into the top 6.

Our current points per game over the season is 1.62, over the past 8 games it is 1.5. Recent form should be more reflective of recent performance so lets average those two values and extrapolate that over the remaining 17 games. Average is 1.56, multiplied by 17 remaining games gets you an expected return of 26.52 points (call it 27) from the 51 available. 

So if the season progresses as it has done so far we could reasonably expect City to finish on 74 points - just slightly on the right side of the bubble between 6th and 7th.

The article you posted suggested one goal is worth half a point. So, Wells would probably need to come in and score somewhere between 3 and 5 goals in 17 games if he were to be enough to make us more likely than not to finish in the top 6. It's not an unrealistic target but would probably be enough to earn him a mention in a Championship focused re-write of that article. If he's looking to fire us into the top 2 (he won't btw) then he's gunna need to bang in 20+ in half a season just to propel us to the mid-80s.

So - to value - what are we actually buying here? Are we buying a golden shot at promotion and the hundreds of millions that come with it? Nope - we're buying someone who might slightly increase the chances that we go into a horrendous four-way tournament in which we are the overwhelming underdog and from which one and only one team emerges victorious and grasps the double-edged sword of promotion. What is that worth? I don't know.

Note: I am personally more pessimistic than these numbers. I believe our recent wins have been more due to fortune and the weakness of the oppositions than to any systematic and repeatable formula for success. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume that we are going to get those 27 points (9 wins from 17) that this maths predicts.

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4 minutes ago, Will b11 said:

Looks like this is close to being done then , anyone reckon we will get a second striker in or Will we just have Wells ? 

Easy tiger, let’s get one through the door first, it’s not like this one has taken a while to get close to joining, is it?

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8 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

To be blunt, yes ?

However, also ask yourself why Mike McGrath hasn't gone as far as saying it's basically a done deal and has instead only said a fee has been agreed...

I don't know what he knows

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3 minutes ago, Taunton_BCFC said:

I think he’s gonna turn us down. And I think it will be out fault. He was very happy at QPR posting lots on social media. Think he may play hardball here.

Yes he was happy but this is his job. I'm sure a decent wage and chance to play football near the top of the championship will make him equally happy. 5 or 6 months at a team doesn't make him loyal to them. 

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11 minutes ago, Riaz said:

Er, that’s against the rules. 

Were not allowed to speak to the player without permission being granted... which effectively means we must agree the fee. 

Well I've heard it happens quite often

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9 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

However, also ask yourself why Mike McGrath hasn't gone as far as saying it's basically a done deal and has instead only said a fee has been agreed...

Just hope it ain’t gonna be one of these Dwight Gayle Andre Gray sagas where City aren’t good enough for ‘em

27 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Fee is a lot less than that!

How much do u reckon it is?

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If we have really got a serious chance of pulling this off then please BRISTOL CITY DO NOT BOLLOCKS IT UP. We are operating in footballing backwater so we should expect to have to pay over the odds.

As far as I am aware

1. the two Clubs agree a fee

2.then the player comes to the buying Club and susses it out.

3. If they feel okay about joining they then negotiate terms

4. If they agree the player has a medical

5. If that is okay the players signs.

Bob's yer flipping uncle, Fanny's yer aunt.

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21 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

Fam is a weird one because think he needs to score one of his chances last night. On the other hand he occupied a defender on the long ball that led to our goal. 
 

Then with Weimann he isn’t the goal scorer that Wells is but he will offer much more work defensively. Might be a case of Wells plays home games? 

It would be hard to get momentum changing striker nearly every game. 

I think LJ really wants to play one team with minimal changes. One system.

Wells coming here will likely mean a change in system. Well, almost certainly.

I can't see him playing Wells and Weimann and only having 2 six foot plus players to defend set pieces.

I'm sure he will go to 3 at the back.

Unless he goes Wells and Deidhiou up top, which I can't imagine happening as he loves Weimann.

And also doing that would leave us light in midfield. A problem we have only recently sorted out by ditching 442.

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2 minutes ago, southvillekiddy said:

If we have really got a serious chance of pulling this off then please BRISTOL CITY DO NOT BOLLOCKS IT UP. We are operating in footballing backwater so we should expect to have to pay over the odds.

That doesn’t mean we should be held to ransom though although it’s always easy to expect someone else to stump up the extra money when it isn’t yours hey?

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