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Nahki Wells - SIGNING CONFIRMED


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1 hour ago, citywest30 said:

Yes he was happy but this is his job. I'm sure a decent wage and chance to play football near the top of the championship will make him equally happy. 5 or 6 months at a team doesn't make him loyal to them. 

I’d say we are are more attractive proposition than Qpr at the moment anyway.

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9 minutes ago, RedDave said:

 

 

The younger the player the less the risk. This is a panic buy

The understanding was that we want a proven championship scorer, he is that at a reasonable price. Do you really think we can go out there and take a young proven championship goal scorer from a rival.... and not have to pay over £10 million?

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

https://www.spotrac.com/epl/burnley-f.c/payroll/
 

Suggest £25k per week (£1.3m pa).  Suspect Kalas on that.

Lets suggest a fee of £3.0m over 2.5 years (1 year option) on same wages (plus a nice little signing on fee).

FFP: (simplified to half a year)

19/20 - fee amortisation £0.6m, wages £0.65m  = £1.25m hit this year’s accounts

20/21 and 21/22 - £1.2m amortisation, £1.3m = £2.5m commitment each year.

22/23 - should we take up his option in summer 2021, then the commitment gets split over both years.

Definitely manageable imho.

 

If we could manage Tomlin back when we can surely manage Wells now I think about it. 
 

Is our wage cap not 20k anymore?

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1 minute ago, Kodjias Wrist said:

Yes but hes not the type of forward LJ is primarily looking for. Not sure Toney could step up that quickly.

Agree.

Also thinking that Fam could develop with Wells - his movement and positioning - as an inspiration.

Maybe....

 

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1 hour ago, robin_unreliant said:

If it is a permanent deal I'm wondering if the length of contract will be an issue. If he wants 3 years plus will we go there given his age? 

We want him for short term impact while understandably he'll want a long contract as it could be his last at his age. Maybe more of an issue than his wage level? 

I’d imagine we’d have to give him a 3 year deal.

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1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ok, quickly crunched some figures.

Currently we sit in 6th place on 47 points from 29 games. The average points for 6th position over the past decade is roughly 73 points. So we need another 26 points to get to that average - 73 doesn't guarantee a play off spot but if you get that many points you are as likely as not to get into the top 6.

Our current points per game over the season is 1.62, over the past 8 games it is 1.5. Recent form should be more reflective of recent performance so lets average those two values and extrapolate that over the remaining 17 games. Average is 1.56, multiplied by 17 remaining games gets you an expected return of 26.52 points (call it 27) from the 51 available. 

So if the season progresses as it has done so far we could reasonably expect City to finish on 74 points - just slightly on the right side of the bubble between 6th and 7th.

The article you posted suggested one goal is worth half a point. So, Wells would probably need to come in and score somewhere between 3 and 5 goals in 17 games if he were to be enough to make us more likely than not to finish in the top 6. It's not an unrealistic target but would probably be enough to earn him a mention in a Championship focused re-write of that article. If he's looking to fire us into the top 2 (he won't btw) then he's gunna need to bang in 20+ in half a season just to propel us to the mid-80s.

So - to value - what are we actually buying here? Are we buying a golden shot at promotion and the hundreds of millions that come with it? Nope - we're buying someone who might slightly increase the chances that we go into a horrendous four-way tournament in which we are the overwhelming underdog and from which one and only one team emerges victorious and grasps the double-edged sword of promotion. What is that worth? I don't know.

Note: I am personally more pessimistic than these numbers. I believe our recent wins have been more due to fortune and the weakness of the oppositions than to any systematic and repeatable formula for success. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume that we are going to get those 27 points (9 wins from 17) that this maths predicts.

You’re not, by any chance,  a reincarnation of my old maths teacher? I always thought the best solution was think of the number you first thought of. 

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4 minutes ago, Big Nose said:

Agree.

Also thinking that Fam could develop with Wells - his movement and positioning - as an inspiration.

Maybe....

 

Shut up big nose!.....sorry couldn't resist Monty python quote!

Well could you imagine Weimann and Wells together? I certainly can't at the minute but I dont want Weimann being completely dropped because of wells.

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I’m happy with this.

Proven goal scorer in this division who has also played alongside Palmer and Paterson previously at Huddersfield. Hopefully this will bring the best out of Palmer again and make that difference in the final third of the pitch. 
 

@RedDave Wouldn’t say this is a panic buy. Wells is 29, not exactly an old journeyman. Look at Grabban for Forest, he’s 32 and is still a class act. 

Strikers never really lose their touch. 

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1 minute ago, Top Robin said:

Blimey just seen that he's only 5ft 7....I thought he was a big un. No wonder Lee is in for him.....they'll be able to communicate on a similar level

Have you never watched wells ? Always known as a little nippy nuisance of a striker. First time I saw him play was against us in the 2-2 opening home game back in league one. Scored after flappy fielding gifted them the ball.

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23 minutes ago, Mr Hankey said:

So what do you suggest should be the cut off age for an elite level player in this division? 24, 25, 26? 3 years ago he would never of considered joining us.

When he left bradford was when we should have gone for him.

wells is good but hes not elite level,,, thats gayle, bowen, watkins level. And at least 2 of them we should have signed 5 years ago when we had the chance

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1 minute ago, Top Robin said:

Blimey just seen that he's only 5ft 7....I thought he was a big un. No wonder Lee is in for him.....they'll be able to communicate on a similar level

Yeah he's more the Lita, Maynard, Baldock type. 

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35 minutes ago, Ryan_BCFC said:

No mention of the fee, I’d be surprised if it is much more than they paid (5m) for him.

He's only got six months left on his contract - if Burnley activate their additional year option, I think they would need to then pay his contract up as he's not asked for a transfer?

Would therefore suggest that's his fee is likely to be somewhere between £3m & £4m

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If we did manage to get him on the roof, surely it wouldn't be such a good idea to play him against QPR?

Is he really going to bust a gut against a club and fans he has a lot of time for.

And maybe then getting off on the wrong foot with his new fans.

Save him for Brum and hit the ground running I'd say!

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24 minutes ago, RedDave said:

 

 

The younger the player the less the risk. This is a panic buy

My god how wrong can you be, 

younger players are more risk much much more,

they may not develop, they lack experience and situational awareness for a start,

it’s like you argue for the sake of it,

we could be signing Tammy and you’d post a reason not too

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1 minute ago, Simon bristol said:

When he left bradford was when we should have gone for him.

wells is good but hes not elite level,,, thats gayle, bowen, watkins level. And at least 2 of them we should have signed 5 years ago when we had the chance

A lot of fans I speak to are very frustrated that we let Watkins who was practically on our doorstep go to Brentford. Still LJ said we got Eliasson instead did he not?

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