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The most efficient attacking team in the division


REDOXO

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12 hours ago, REDOXO said:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/forget-leeds-united-west-brom-3767225
 

Yep Weimann and Diehdou are clearly crap. 
 

We need a ball winner in midfield and a forward to compete with the current two plus a returning Afobe. Or so the stats say!

efficient yes, creative no,

we are in the bottom 3 for creating chances, it just goes to show how good our strikers have been really

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12 hours ago, REDOXO said:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/forget-leeds-united-west-brom-3767225
 

Yep Weimann and Diehdou are clearly crap. 
 

We need a ball winner in midfield and a forward to compete with the current two plus a returning Afobe. Or so the stats say!

Worrying really isnt it. Obviously great we are scoring such a high percentage of our chances at the moment but if the conversion rate of our forwards dips, not looking promising.

On a plus note, how many would diedhiou have at a team creating double the chances? 

On a disappointing note, it does appear our issue is not strikers but lack of creativity. I think this is why fans arent happy with Johnson. We dont create a lot, scrape wins by the single goal and we are forever bringing in class creative players like Tomlin, palmer, paterson but we are still unable to get it quite right 

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Being a striker is not just about scoring goals. You need a striker who can hold the ball up and bring your team/midfield up the field - this is probably why we've conceded so many this season as the ball doesn't stick up top and comes straight back. Big Dave needs someone similar to Bobby Reid who can makes the in behind runs but also clever to know when to get it to feet and when to run in behind.

Unfortunately, whilst Weimann may have scored a few this season as a whole his game is poor. Great that he's willing to press but often it's headless chicken style when he should in fact conserve his energy (Also there's a reason it's never worked out at any other club for him).

I think bringing in one striker plus a creative midfielder would put us in those play off positions so lets see where we are at the end of this transfer window.

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2 minutes ago, Red 90 said:

Being a striker is not just about scoring goals. You need a striker who can hold the ball up and bring your team/midfield up the field - this is probably why we've conceded so many this season as the ball doesn't stick up top and comes straight back. Big Dave needs someone similar to Bobby Reid who can makes the in behind runs but also clever to know when to get it to feet and when to run in behind.

Unfortunately, whilst Weimann may have scored a few this season as a whole his game is poor. Great that he's willing to press but often it's headless chicken style when he should in fact conserve his energy (Also there's a reason it's never worked out at any other club for him).

I think bringing in one striker plus a creative midfielder would put us in those play off positions so lets see where we are at the end of this transfer window.

we've conceded not because Fammy (Not dave) can't hold the ball (he can and does it well when played to feet) but because our midfield doesn't tackle or win headers and have a habit of passing it to anyone but our players,

We also don't need to bring a creative midfielder in we have Nik (the most creative player in the league) pato palmer brownhill, what we need to do is stop trying to play on the counter it stops our creativity as we are sitting back waiting,

A decent ball winning defensive midfielder is what the team needs above anyone else, we just don't have one and haven't had one for 4 or 5 years

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1 hour ago, archie andrews said:

Goals pay the rent....... 

Can't keep up the conversion rate at one end, the save rate at the other and the relative lack of possession in between and keep performing well...surely?

@Monkeh Still think Rowe could be worth a go, Rowe with say Nagy and Smith with maybe Brownhill higher on the right, Eliasson left and whoever we stick up front.

Creativity, avoid being overrun numerically, his experience and edge (Rowe's) can help the others- Smith is Smith but interchange with Massengo as neither of them are for different reasons start every week right now IMO, Brownhill higher up may chip in a goal or 2 as well, plus the fact he can support full back attacking and defensively...problems with this are a) What of Palmer and b) Would it be Weimann, Diedhiou or A.N Other up top?

Oh and forgot about Paterson too!

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4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Can't keep up the conversion rate at one end, the save rate at the other and the relative lack of possession in between and keep performing well...surely?

@Monkeh Still think Rowe could be worth a go, Rowe with say Nagy and Smith with maybe Brownhill higher on the right, Eliasson left and whoever we stick up front.

Creativity, avoid being overrun numerically, his experience and edge (Rowe's) can help the others- Smith is Smith but interchange with Massengo as neither of them are for different reasons start every week right now IMO, Brownhill higher up may chip in a goal or 2 as well, plus the fact he can support full back attacking and defensively...problems with this are a) What of Palmer and b) Would it be Weimann, Diedhiou or A.N Other up top?

I agree, we were alot more creative against Barnsley and would of won 4-2 on another day with better finishing, and I believe that was mainly down to a 5 man midfield

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Utterly pointless stat, brings Disraeli to mind and demonstrates the poverty of journalism and analysis found at The Evil these days.

So who scores the most goals: the team who converts 15% of the 60 chances they create or the side who converts 20% of the 10 chances they create?

Static and Flappy receive shocking service but that's in addition and not despite the fact they're lower quality strikers and with a poor conversion rate.

 

 

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Strikers / forwards carry at least as much responsibility as midfielders for creating if not more. Movement is a huge part of it as is awareness and touch. When we play wih Fam as a targetman our creativity suffers and this is not because of our quality in midfield but rather because of the direct pattern of play we adopt where we have no runs being made by wingers and forwards. Afobe made chances with intelligent movement.

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5 minutes ago, Shtanley said:

LJ has said himself he doesn’t like pot shots from the edge of the box. 

Presumably that explains why no player ever wants to shoot.

Presume, too, with all his coaching badges he's never come across the age old adages that:

If you don't shoot, you don't score;

Never criticise a player for daring to shoot;

Goals from deflections and rebounds count the same as those who fly straight into the net......

 

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1 hour ago, City18 said:

This is also where Johnsons s**thousery in interviews frustrates me. Comments like those blaming diedhiou missing chances in Shrewsbury game. Another championship side would have created more chances against a poor league one side

Sack Johnson and all these ridiculous posts will go away and give us something better to post about.

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56 minutes ago, Red 90 said:

Being a striker is not just about scoring goals. You need a striker who can hold the ball up and bring your team/midfield up the field - this is probably why we've conceded so many this season as the ball doesn't stick up top and comes straight back. Big Dave needs someone similar to Bobby Reid who can makes the in behind runs but also clever to know when to get it to feet and when to run in behind.

Unfortunately, whilst Weimann may have scored a few this season as a whole his game is poor. Great that he's willing to press but often it's headless chicken style when he should in fact conserve his energy (Also there's a reason it's never worked out at any other club for him).

I think bringing in one striker plus a creative midfielder would put us in those play off positions so lets see where we are at the end of this transfer window.

 

28 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Strikers / forwards carry at least as much responsibility as midfielders for creating if not more. Movement is a huge part of it as is awareness and touch. When we play wih Fam as a targetman our creativity suffers and this is not because of our quality in midfield but rather because of the direct pattern of play we adopt where we have no runs being made by wingers and forwards. Afobe made chances with intelligent movement.

All over the pitch you need partnerships / combinations.  Fam and Andi has rarely looked like being one, despite on paper it looking like it should’ve been Benteke / Weimann version 2.0.

Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and have fashioned 18 goals split evenly between them.

And you don’t just need your front two in isolation to work together, it’s elsewhere too, they need to link with midfield, they need to link with full-backs for balls into the channel.

We don’t have a cohesive team full stop.  Even basic things like having a set play / drill from a throw-in, we don’t have.  No wonder we don’t keep the ball, no wonder we don’t create pressure through territory (sounds like rugby lingo, sorry). We are becoming reliant on flashes of inspiration, e.g. Eliasson wizardry, Dasilva lung-busting runs, etc.  We are seeing less goals / goal action from stuff that looks like its come from a plan.

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

 

All over the pitch you need partnerships / combinations.  Fam and Andi has rarely looked like being one, despite on paper it looking like it should’ve been Benteke / Weimann version 2.0.

Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and have fashioned 18 goals split evenly between them.

And you don’t just need your front two in isolation to work together, it’s elsewhere too, they need to link with midfield, they need to link with full-backs for balls into the channel.

We don’t have a cohesive team full stop.  Even basic things like having a set play / drill from a throw-in, we don’t have.  No wonder we don’t keep the ball, no wonder we don’t create pressure through territory (sounds like rugby lingo, sorry). We are becoming reliant on flashes of inspiration, e.g. Eliasson wizardry, Dasilva lung-busting runs, etc.  We are seeing less goals / goal action from stuff that looks like its come from a plan.

And that’s come from chopping and changing every season, we sign too many players

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52 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Static and Flappy receive shocking service but that's in addition and not despite the fact they're lower quality strikers and with a poor conversion rate.

Numbers show they have the best conversion rate in the league ... Someone still comments they have a poor conversion rate ... At least I know I'm definitely in the right place, classic OTIB. ?

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45 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

 

All over the pitch you need partnerships / combinations.  Fam and Andi has rarely looked like being one, despite on paper it looking like it should’ve been Benteke / Weimann version 2.0.

Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and have fashioned 18 goals split evenly between them.

And you don’t just need your front two in isolation to work together, it’s elsewhere too, they need to link with midfield, they need to link with full-backs for balls into the channel.

We don’t have a cohesive team full stop.  Even basic things like having a set play / drill from a throw-in, we don’t have.  No wonder we don’t keep the ball, no wonder we don’t create pressure through territory (sounds like rugby lingo, sorry). We are becoming reliant on flashes of inspiration, e.g. Eliasson wizardry, Dasilva lung-busting runs, etc.  We are seeing less goals / goal action from stuff that looks like its come from a plan.

Tend to agree with that.  Weiman looks much more like a forward to me when played without Famara, as he's more central and trying to get in behind and on the end of balls into the box more.  Having everyone play off a focal point like Fam is a pattern I think is quite limiting, nothing against him personally as I think he's as good as we could expect to get at that role.  It's the role I don't like much as it sucks the movement out of the team and the knock on effects of that are felt everywhere right back to how we keep the ball after the keeper releases it.

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1 hour ago, Shtanley said:

We focus on high quality chances. LJ has said himself he doesn’t like pot shots from the edge of the box. 

To be fair to him it seems to be working. We've scored a decent number of goals. The worry is that we still allow the opposition to take pot shots form anywhere they fancy.

On the clinical side of things - @Davefevs put some nice stats on the Benik Afobe thread showing that both Fam and Andi are scoring at a rate consistent with the quality of shots they are taking. Weimann's expected rate is lower than Diedhiou's; about 1 in 4 compared to Diedhiou's just about 1 in 2.8, but neither are massively underperforming (across the season as a whole - recent form may be a different matter). However both take far, far fewer shots than the other top strikers playing for top teams.

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Can't keep up the conversion rate at one end, the save rate at the other and the relative lack of possession in between and keep performing well...surely?

 

The conversion rate and Bentley's save rate are actually both quite unremarkable. I'd suggest it's more than possible that we'll maintain both for the rest of the season. what needs to improve is shutting down the raw quantity of shots we allow. As @BTRFTG alludes to further up - there's no point Bentley having the highest number of saves if he's also faced the most shots. The bloke is good but to parody LJ if he was brilliant he wouldn't be with us - he'd be in the prem. Make his job easier - that starts in midfield with an effective screening of the defence. 

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58 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

Numbers show they have the best conversion rate in the league ... Someone still comments they have a poor conversion rate ... At least I know I'm definitely in the right place, classic OTIB. ?

Then I'd love you know what the hell counts as a 'conversion'? Clearly with our rabble it's 2 points over the bar, as review of any recent highlights demonstrate is where the ball ends up.

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7 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The conversion rate and Bentley's save rate are actually both quite unremarkable. I'd suggest it's more than possible that we'll maintain both for the rest of the season. what needs to improve is shutting down the raw quantity of shots we allow. As @BTRFTG alludes to further up - there's no point Bentley having the highest number of saves if he's also faced the most shots. The bloke is good but to parody LJ if he was brilliant he wouldn't be with us - he'd be in the prem. Make his job easier - that starts in midfield with an effective screening of the defence. 

Possible my stats outdated but earlier in the season, we were overperforming in both areas, the divisional average I believe.

Agree, we need to stop the flow of shots. Fielding a midfield setup as we do, doesn't help! Paterson in a '3' if we use standard full backs etc, doesn't work! Nothing against Paterson, more the system...standard 3 and with the right combination especially offers more protection than our current hybrid!

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4 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Then I'd love you know what the hell counts as a 'conversion'? Clearly with our rabble it's 2 points over the bar, as review of any recent highlights demonstrate is where the ball ends up.

Conversion rate- there's a number of methods.

Crudest- total shots/total goals.

Maybe then shots on target/total goals.

Shots/shots on target.

Own goals are weighted differently, or not at all quite possibly. Penalties are weighted as something like 0.8- or 80%, in that example it would mean that the divisional average=80% of penalties converted and therefore there's an 80% chance of a goal in that scenario.

It's absolutely imperfect but can be a useful guide- or indicator of trends!

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39F60E7E-214E-43B8-8ED7-C801D3740066.jpeg5E485703-2038-4FE7-80D3-8120022990AC.jpeg

With full credit to @Davefevs and his wyscout account - you can clearly see that Fam is converting at a decent enough rate, just shy of 18%. It's not bad but it's some way off the guys at the top of the goalscoring charts. Weimann is a couple of points lower at 16%. However look at their respective xG figures and you can see that Weimann has scored slightly more goals than you might expect him to given the quality of chances he's taken, and Fam has cored ever so slightly fewer. But it's marginal. Neither of them look drastically worse than the others on this list. Have a gander at Bamford's figures if you want to see a bloke having a terrible season.

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3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Conversion rate- there's a number of methods.

Crudest- total shots/total goals.

Maybe then shots on target/total goals.

Shots/shots on target.

 

Then it's no surprise we appear high in the efficiency league given our 'shots on target' is invariably in the range 0-2. Off target we aren't much better.

All of which counts for the square root of zip. So there's the conundrum that we don't create much yet score more than most which again matters not if we're shipping more goals than most and invariably more than we score.

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9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's not bad but it's some way off the guys at the top of the goalscoring charts. Weimann is a couple of points lower at 16%.

Absolutely pointless stats. How are headers counted, as if like bookies they aren't shots but count as goals?

Slightly blurred but from what I can make out Flappy's had 56 shots, 36% of which were on target. In which case and with 9 goals he converts just under every other shot he gets on target. It also attests 2/3rds of his shots are off target and he's a relatively low number of those to start with. With 54% more shots, a higher conversion rate (for what that's worth) and 11% more goals I'll take the underperforming Banford any day for if his conversion rate increases cf Flappy he'll proportionately score a greater number of goals.

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