The race to 75

[mozo]

Normally 75 points will secure a play off place.

This would require City (and Preston) to earn another 22 points.

6 wins, 4 draws and only 4 more losses would achieve that.

Can we do it?

And is 75 a reasonable target (for us fans)?

On paper, the most winnable games remaining are in my opinion:

Huddersfield (a)

Sheffield Wednesday (h)

Hull (h)

Middlesbrough (a)

And Stoke (h)

That's 5 wins prior to the potential ultimate 6 pointer, Preston at home, final day. 

PS, when is our big list going to arrive at OTIB with the varied points landmarks? Please?!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Normally 75 points will secure a play off place.

This would require City (and Preston) to earn another 22 points.

6 wins, 4 draws and only 4 more losses would achieve that.

Can we do it?

And is 75 a reasonable target (for us fans)?

On paper, the most winnable games remaining are in my opinion:

Huddersfield (a)

Sheffield Wednesday (h)

Hull (h)

Middlesbrough (a)

And Stoke (h)

That's 5 wins prior to the potential ultimate 6 pointer, Preston at home, final day. 

PS, when is our big list going to arrive at OTIB with the varied points landmarks? Please?!

I’ll do the real league table sometime soon 

[cidercity1987]

On track to miss out with 76 points at the moment. Our fixtures until just before Easter look horrid. We've had an easier run since Sheff Wed away but on paper this little lot doesn't throw up anything straightforward:

Leeds A

WBA H

Huddersfield A

Millwall A

Fulham H

Blackburn A

Sheff W H

Forest A

Cardiff H

 

Last season we did well against the upper midtable sides away from home (Boro W, Forest W, Swansea W, Brentford W, Blackburn W). I reckon we need to do similar looking specifically at Milwall, Blackburn, even Forest in that run above to stay in contention.

[mozo]

@bcfc01 illustrated on another thread that City were on the same points at the same stage of the last 2 seasons 53 points.

Well 2017 saw us gain 14 points from our last 14 games.

In 2018, we managed 17 points.

Both times short of the 75 needed (and short of gd)

 

[bcfc01]

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

@bcfc01 illustrated on another thread that City were on the same points at the same stage of the last 2 seasons 53 points.

Well 2017 saw us gain 14 points from our last 14 games.

In 2018, we managed 17 points.

Both times short of the 75 needed (and short of gd)

 

This may be better placed here;

Bristol City after 32 matches in the same league / division
	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts *	Comparison
2019-2020	32	15	8	9	48	45	53	-
2018-2019	32	15	8	9	42	33	53	0 pts
2017-2018	32	14	11	7	47	38	53	0 pts
2016-2017	32	9	5	18	42	48	32	+ 21 pts
2015-2016	32	8	10	14	29	48	34	+ 19 pts
2012-2013	32	9	4	19	45	60	31	+ 22 pts
2011-2012	32	8	7	17	27	49	31	+ 22 pts
2010-2011	32	9	8	15	36	48	35	+ 18 pts

[mozo]

4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

This may be better placed here;

Bristol City after 32 matches in the same league / division
	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts *	Comparison
2019-2020	32	15	8	9	48	45	53	-
2018-2019	32	15	8	9	42	33	53	0 pts
2017-2018	32	14	11	7	47	38	53	0 pts
2016-2017	32	9	5	18	42	48	32	+ 21 pts
2015-2016	32	8	10	14	29	48	34	+ 19 pts
2012-2013	32	9	4	19	45	60	31	+ 22 pts
2011-2012	32	8	7	17	27	49	31	+ 22 pts
2010-2011	32	9	8	15	36	48	35	+ 18 pts

Thanks buddy.

In 2017-18 we won 3 more games after this point. 

In 2018-19 we won 4 more games after this point. 

I would guess that we need to win 6 more games...

By the way, I did these win countdown posts last season and it was really frustrating!!

[bcfc01]

8 minutes ago, mozo said:

Thanks buddy.

In 2017-18 we won 3 more games after this point. 

In 2018-19 we won 4 more games after this point. 

I would guess that we need to win 6 more games...

By the way, I did these win countdown posts last season and it was really frustrating!!

This stat illustrates quite simply how teams are performing - if we can keep to our average of 1.66 ppg then 76 points is achievable;

Relative Form

		GP	Pts	Points Per Game (PPG)		Relative Form
				last 8 matches	all matches	(PPG last 8 - PPG all matches)
1	West Brom	32	62	1.38	1.94		-0.56
2	Leeds Utd	32	56	1.00	1.75		-0.75
3	Fulham	32	56	2.13	1.75		+0.38
4	Brentford	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
5	Nottm Forest	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
6	Preston	32	53	1.75	1.66		+0.09
7	Bristol City	32	53	2.25	1.66		+0.59
8	Cardiff City	32	49	1.88	1.53		+0.35
9	Blackburn	32	47	1.38	1.47		-0.09
10	Swansea City	32	47	1.25	1.47		-0.22
11	Millwall	32	46	1.50	1.44		+0.06
12	Sheffield Wed	32	44	0.63	1.38		-0.75
13	Derby County	32	43	2.00	1.34		+0.66
14	Birmingham City	32	43	1.75	1.34		+0.41
15	Hull City	32	40	0.88	1.25		-0.37
16	Reading	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
17	QP Rangers	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
18	Middlesbrough	32	37	1.25	1.16		+0.09
19	Charlton	32	36	1.00	1.13		-0.13
20	Huddersfield	32	35	1.25	1.09		+0.16
21	Stoke City	32	34	1.63	1.06		+0.57
22	Wigan Athletic	32	30	1.25	0.94		+0.31
23	Luton Town	32	27	0.75	0.84		-0.09
24	Barnsley	32	25	0.63	0.78		-0.15

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

This stat illustrates quite simply how teams are performing - if we can keep to our average of 1.66 ppg then 76 points is achievable;

Relative Form

		GP	Pts	Points Per Game (PPG)		Relative Form
				last 8 matches	all matches	(PPG last 8 - PPG all matches)
1	West Brom	32	62	1.38	1.94		-0.56
2	Leeds Utd	32	56	1.00	1.75		-0.75
3	Fulham	32	56	2.13	1.75		+0.38
4	Brentford	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
5	Nottm Forest	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
6	Preston	32	53	1.75	1.66		+0.09
7	Bristol City	32	53	2.25	1.66		+0.59
8	Cardiff City	32	49	1.88	1.53		+0.35
9	Blackburn	32	47	1.38	1.47		-0.09
10	Swansea City	32	47	1.25	1.47		-0.22
11	Millwall	32	46	1.50	1.44		+0.06
12	Sheffield Wed	32	44	0.63	1.38		-0.75
13	Derby County	32	43	2.00	1.34		+0.66
14	Birmingham City	32	43	1.75	1.34		+0.41
15	Hull City	32	40	0.88	1.25		-0.37
16	Reading	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
17	QP Rangers	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
18	Middlesbrough	32	37	1.25	1.16		+0.09
19	Charlton	32	36	1.00	1.13		-0.13
20	Huddersfield	32	35	1.25	1.09		+0.16
21	Stoke City	32	34	1.63	1.06		+0.57
22	Wigan Athletic	32	30	1.25	0.94		+0.31
23	Luton Town	32	27	0.75	0.84		-0.09
24	Barnsley	32	25	0.63	0.78		-0.15

I love this site and this table they produce. Always think it's better than the raw form table. The margins here are so, so fine. Everyone from 3rd to 8th is performing well at the moment and any of them could occupy a top six place come the final day. Even Blackburn and Swansea will have some optimistic fans hoping for a surge in the run-in. Hopefully we saw last night that we can perform at home...so long as we pretend we are away.

[LondonBristolian]

I really hope it doesn't come down to Preston at home. I hate us playing Preston...

[mozo]

31 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

This stat illustrates quite simply how teams are performing - if we can keep to our average of 1.66 ppg then 76 points is achievable;

Relative Form

		GP	Pts	Points Per Game (PPG)		Relative Form
				last 8 matches	all matches	(PPG last 8 - PPG all matches)
1	West Brom	32	62	1.38	1.94		-0.56
2	Leeds Utd	32	56	1.00	1.75		-0.75
3	Fulham	32	56	2.13	1.75		+0.38
4	Brentford	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
5	Nottm Forest	32	54	1.75	1.69		+0.06
6	Preston	32	53	1.75	1.66		+0.09
7	Bristol City	32	53	2.25	1.66		+0.59
8	Cardiff City	32	49	1.88	1.53		+0.35
9	Blackburn	32	47	1.38	1.47		-0.09
10	Swansea City	32	47	1.25	1.47		-0.22
11	Millwall	32	46	1.50	1.44		+0.06
12	Sheffield Wed	32	44	0.63	1.38		-0.75
13	Derby County	32	43	2.00	1.34		+0.66
14	Birmingham City	32	43	1.75	1.34		+0.41
15	Hull City	32	40	0.88	1.25		-0.37
16	Reading	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
17	QP Rangers	32	39	0.88	1.22		-0.34
18	Middlesbrough	32	37	1.25	1.16		+0.09
19	Charlton	32	36	1.00	1.13		-0.13
20	Huddersfield	32	35	1.25	1.09		+0.16
21	Stoke City	32	34	1.63	1.06		+0.57
22	Wigan Athletic	32	30	1.25	0.94		+0.31
23	Luton Town	32	27	0.75	0.84		-0.09
24	Barnsley	32	25	0.63	0.78		-0.15

Didn't someone illustrate on another thread that the difficulty of our remaining games is relatively higher than the games we have played so far? That would mean that we need to improve our performances just to maintain the current form (1.66 ppg)?

[Eastside Moonwalker]

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Didn't someone illustrate on another thread that the difficulty of our remaining games is relatively higher than the games we have played so far? That would mean that we need to improve our performances just to maintain the current form (1.66 ppg)?

Any match where we are in the left column of the scoresheet is a difficult game

[The Bard]

When you think about it, it really shouldn't be that difficult for our current squad to not just maintain the PPG ration but improve it.  We have collapsed like a pack of cards the last 2 seasons. leading to us missing out.  Hopefully with a stronger mentality we can look at getting 80+ points and chasing down the top 2 rather than thinking about 75 points and the last game vs Preston.

It is all in the head..

 

[Alessandro]

38 minutes ago, mozo said:

Didn't someone illustrate on another thread that the difficulty of our remaining games is relatively higher than the games we have played so far? That would mean that we need to improve our performances just to maintain the current form (1.66 ppg)?

Hopefully that’s where Wells, Benkovic, Kalas, Henriksen and even Afobe come into it....

[BigTone]

3 hours ago, TomF said:

I’ll do the real league table sometime soon 

You mean the death pool ?

[1960maaan]

With how we play, and how the League is , who knows how it will go. We have tough games, but everyone beats each other , that's why Cgarlton can beat Forest. In our favour? We are closer to second than we have been over the last couple of years. 

 

8 and 4 points off of 2nd place, currently 3 points off.....

 

Also the teams at the top have been in indifferent form lately. Cardiff ( 29 from 14 ) and Wolves ( 28 from 14 ) managed (near enough) the magic 2 points a game in the run in.

 

 

Norwich and Sheff U did even better ( 34 and 31 points from 14 games )

 

As things stand, I don't see many making that sort of run , maybe WBA possibly. IMO it will be a lot closer from 2nd to 8th , we need to literally up our game at home while sustaining an impressive away record. ALL the remaining games are important, but consistency is key and managing more than the 1 point a game run in we have had before.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Didn't someone illustrate on another thread that the difficulty of our remaining games is relatively higher than the games we have played so far? That would mean that we need to improve our performances just to maintain the current form (1.66 ppg)?

Soccerstats.com is again your source for this. Blue column is the average points per game achieved by each team's remaining opponents. Ours isn't the highest but it is certainly one of the highest and is higher than Preston and Cardiff's by a good margin (0.1 is quite a big difference). Our next four opponents are averaging 1.73 - as most of us know 1.75 is generally more than enough for a final play off position (1.75 x 46 = 81 points). So yes, we've a tricky run in compared to those around us, and an exceptionally difficult next four games.

Edit: just read your actual question - yes it is. The column to the right of the blue column illustrates that our remaining opponents have an average of 0.17 more ppg than our preceding 32. So yes technically you'd expect us to have to up our game in order to maintain our current ludicrous form of 2.25 ppg.

From this chart you'd say you could actually expect Preston to move up to 5th with us fighting Forest for 6th. However don't discount Cardiff who with their relatively easy run-in could stealthily nick 6th themselves. Blackburn and Swansea will need an unbelievable surge to catch us. But that's just from the chart: football is mad and really anything could happen.

FYI this is basically why that recent thread about lumping on to us to win the league at 150/1 was madness, even if we were "only" 6 points off top at the time (IIRC).

Sorry, it is actually worth reading the methodology to understand exactly how these numbers have been decided.

[AppyDAZE]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

@bcfc01 illustrated on another thread that City were on the same points at the same stage of the last 2 seasons 53 points.

Well 2017 saw us gain 14 points from our last 14 games.

In 2018, we managed 17 points.

Both times short of the 75 needed (and short of gd)

 

Bloody spoiler alerts plz

[mozo]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

With how we play, and how the League is , who knows how it will go. We have tough games, but everyone beats each other , that's why Cgarlton can beat Forest. In our favour? We are closer to second than we have been over the last couple of years. 

 

8 and 4 points off of 2nd place, currently 3 points off.....

 

Also the teams at the top have been in indifferent form lately. Cardiff ( 29 from 14 ) and Wolves ( 28 from 14 ) managed (near enough) the magic 2 points a game in the run in.

 

 

Norwich and Sheff U did even better ( 34 and 31 points from 14 games )

 

As things stand, I don't see many making that sort of run , maybe WBA possibly. IMO it will be a lot closer from 2nd to 8th , we need to literally up our game at home while sustaining an impressive away record. ALL the remaining games are important, but consistency is key and managing more than the 1 point a game run in we have had before.

Thanks for that! I think you proved that some of my figures from earlier were wrong but I'm not the stats guy here so it's fine...

Teams like Blades, Wolves and Cardiff scum were all well-oiled machines in those seasons. They had a formula that worked and clicked into gear. 

I don't feel like that's us. More likely the Boro or Derby of those examples, lurking near the play offs and doing enough to pinch a spot (and ultimately unsuccessful in the playoffs).

But that's what we should be at this stage of our evolution. Nicking a playoff place is fine.

[1960maaan]

2 hours ago, mozo said:

Nicking a playoff place is fine.

Yep, in my opinion that's all we can hope to do. TBF first job is just to get in the PO's, worry about everything else after.
While we do go on those very good runs, we never dominate and actually have the look of a top side. If we do make the Playoff's I think we we stumble over the line, and that may well be good enough. Lots of twists and turns to come, and with luck others will continue to stumble too.