mozo Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 59 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said: Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place. Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do. What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible. The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points! Sorry buddy, but you probably said this last year and you were wrong. There's nothing wrong with forecasting based on precedent and evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy1968 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, ChippenhamRed said: Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place. Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do. What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible. The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points! We have to play the four teams directly below us, at least three of which would probably overtake us the moment they beat us. So, that's four defeats we'd need to avoid for a start. Add another two 'avoid defeats' for Forest and Preston (if we want to maintain pace with them) and the for practical purposes doing better than all those teams on average in our other games (i.e. not against them) until the end of the season (which means wins), it's pretty clear to me that we need to win most of our remaining games to have a realistic chance of a top six finish. Given how things are going I'd be extremely happy if it came down to a must win against Preston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marksy Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Clutching at straws I'm afraid. It seems to happen quite regularly, we get ourselves in a good position and then it all goes belly up. A bit cheesed off with it if I'm honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently. Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6. We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row! We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, mozo said: Sorry buddy, but you probably said this last year and you were wrong. There's nothing wrong with forecasting based on precedent and evidence. Classic OTIB. Being told you’re “wrong” for something you “probably” said a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said: Classic OTIB. Being told you’re “wrong” for something you “probably” said a year ago. Well I only say that because I recall we've discussed something similar before. I generally agree with what you post but I'm sure we've had this debate before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, JonDolman said: People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently. Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6. We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row! We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others. Sorry Jon but the way we play now makes very depressing watching. It's not just the top 2 who have outplayed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie BCFC Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 9 hours ago, JoeAman08 said: We will be finishing closer to 15th than 6th. Once you get forget playoffs maybe it will become slightly more enjoyable 3 points off 4th. Why would we forget about playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, mozo said: Well I only say that because I recall we've discussed something similar before. I generally agree with what you post but I'm sure we've had this debate before? Oh OK, fair enough - yes entirely possibly we’ve been around this loop before, and before that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said: Oh OK, fair enough - yes entirely possibly we’ve been around this loop before, and before that! Yeah but if it turns out you're right and I'm wrong it doesn't count Look, you can't predict the weather, but you can forecast it based on trends and conditions. Equally, the bookies can't be certain that West Brom would beat City away, but they will set the odds to cover their backs for the most likely outcome. I believe that setting a target of 75 points is not perfect, but it is sensible given what we know. And proposing that we should apply extra importance to beating Huddersfield, than say West Brom makes perfect sense given we know 1.That we are more likely to collect points away than at home, and 2. We are more likely to beat teams in the bottom half than the top half. This is all based on evidence. We are de facto 4 points off play offs, and whilst some will say "anything can happen", I'd argue you're being daft if you don't appreciate that every game that we don't win makes the uphill road a little steeper. I admire your ability to be philosophical, but I would expect you to understand why others would apply some context to our situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, marmite said: Sorry Jon but the way we play now makes very depressing watching. It's not just the top 2 who have outplayed us. My point is though that you and others would have said the exact same sort of thing before Wigan game. But we then won 4 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, JonDolman said: People say it isn't going to happen. Well, fair enough it might not. But we won 4 games in a row recently. Win 4 in a row now and people will be saying we are in a good position to make the top 6. We won't win 4 in a row now? Well people would have said that before last time we won 4 in a row! We just lost to the two best teams in the league. Does not make us incapable of beating the others. I agree in a sense, but the sand is passing through the hourglass and the timeframes are becoming urgent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, JonDolman said: My point is though that you and others would have said the exact same sort of thing before Wigan game. But we then won 4 in a row. I agree thats perfectly feasible but our current form and the teams we have to play makes it unlikely in my view. I do hope you are right though and on this occasion I will be happy to eat humble pie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robin_unreliant Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Charlie BCFC said: 3 points off 4th. Why would we forget about playoffs? I find it difficult to believe that a team which concedes more than it scores over two thirds of a season is good enough to make the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie BCFC Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said: I find it difficult to believe that a team which concedes more than it scores over two thirds of a season is good enough to make the play offs. Does it matter? The fact is we are just outside and 3 points below Brentford and Forest. Therefore why should we just forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said: Does it matter? The fact is we are just outside and 3 points below Brentford and Forest. Therefore why should we just forget about it We arent good enough. We have a manager that still doesnt know his best team or formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveInSA Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 4 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said: Never understood why people insist on putting this artificial “we must win X from X” targets in place. Truth is it’s the Championship, where everyone beats everyone, and we don’t know how our rivals will do. What we do know is we need to get four more points than any one of three teams (Brentford, Forest, Preston) with 36 points still available. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it’s more than possible. The most bemusing thing about all this is how Brentford’s GD is 28 better than ours for only 3 more points! Not that bemusing @ChippenhamRed, our defending is appalling. Note, not our defence. The players are disorganised and lack leadership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notbarrymanc Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 People in recruitment really are there pits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie BCFC Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Super said: We arent good enough. We have a manager that still doesnt know his best team or formation. That’s still not the point. Whether we’re good enough or not we still have an opportunity so why would we forget about playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, DaveInSA said: Not that bemusing @ChippenhamRed, our defending is appalling. Note, not our defence. The players are disorganised and lack leadership. That’s rather besides the point; it’s still odd that a goal difference 28 superior has only yielded Brentford 3 more points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said: I find it difficult to believe that a team which concedes more than it scores over two thirds of a season is good enough to make the play offs. Huddersfield were promoted with a negative goal difference and went on to survive their first season in the top flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 6 hours ago, FramptonRed said: I admire your optimism but Preston dont have a soft underbelly like us and i can see them getting something from Wba and especially Fulham.Hope i’m proved wrong though. Yes, we are very soft when we meet better teams. Preston probably make it more difficault for their opponents. Still 36 points to play for, so, he he, Im optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon bristol Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 I was out and about with my kids yesterday, one of which is 10 and loves his football and of course is a city fan. We were without signal until about half 4, at which point i asked for his prediction of the city v wba score. He correctly guessed we would be losing 3-0. Ive got 30 odd years of seeing bristol city failing and i knew as well exactly what would happen in that game, hes got 5 years or so, and he knew it too. If there is a way for bristol city to **** things up spectacularly, they will do it. And for that reason, i cant believe we will make the top 6,,,, and if we did, how can anyone realistically think we would actually win them when we barely have a shot against the better teams in the championship! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveInSA Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 6 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said: That’s rather besides the point; it’s still odd that a goal difference 28 superior has only yielded Brentford 3 more points. let me be more specific We win games by one goal. And often lose by 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeAman08 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 11 hours ago, Charlie BCFC said: 3 points off 4th. Why would we forget about playoffs? Because we aren’t going to be top 6 in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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