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The stats: Are we flat track bullies?


Fordy62

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A recent opinion I’ve formulated is that we rely on our better players to win us games, rather than a team ethic to guide us through. Yes, there are anomalies, but on very few occasions have we been impressive while gathering three points - they’ve been more scraped (Or lucky) than they have been swashbuckling or dominant. 
 

I decided to have a little look at the stats behind it and they’re not great for what lies ahead for the rest of the season.

 

We've played 34 games this season and won 53 points from those games. That’s an average of 1.56 ppg. 
 

Against the teams in the current bottom 12, we’ve played 20 games and won 43 points. An average of 2.15 ppg. 
 

Results against the top half of the table don’t make for good reading, played 14, points won 10. An average of 0.71 ppg. 
 

The conclusion? Where as were seemingly very good at beating the lesser teams in the league, We need to be better against our rivals. Because not only are we not beating them, we’re generally not stopping them from beating us. 
 

Are we flat track bullies who thrive on beating the weaker teams in the league? The stats would suggest the answer is an alarming yes. 

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This simply suggests that we are better than the teams in the bottom half, and not as good as the teams in the top half. 
Which actually makes our current 7th position to be punching above our weight. 
We’re a mid table squad. 

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We were 7th, and three points, was it, behind Leeds (2nd) a few days ago, and the gulf between 2nd and 7th was glaring, yawning. Undeniable. The same for all 4 games v the top two sides this season.

When we (just outside the play-offs) have played the bottom three Barnsley, Wigan and Luton (6 games), I reckon we have looked a class above in only one of those games (Luton, home). 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

It might do if it played together as a team. 

And typically, the sum of the parts has pulled us through in the past.

32 minutes ago, Harry said:

This simply suggests that we are better than the teams in the bottom half, and not as good as the teams in the top half. 
Which actually makes our current 7th position to be punching above our weight. 
We’re a mid table squad. 

I don’t believe we are a mid-table squad on paper (yeah, yeah, game ain’t played on paper, I know!), but we have a squad that I think are 5th-8th ability wise.

Keeper - recent mistakes aside, been one of the best this season.

Left Back - one of the best in the division.

Centre Backs - one got promoted twice and cost £7m. Another, when fit, has almost 100 games in the Premier, and has been playing really well this season.  We’ve just loaned an £11m player too.

Centre Forward - we now have one of the top scorers in the league, alongside a reasonable target man

Midfield centrally we have been a right mixed bag, but potential there with the likes of Palmer and Paterson (as good as many technically in this division).

Wing - Eliasson highly rated by lots.

Have Blackburn, Cardiff, MIllwall, etc (the teams below us) got better squads than us?  Not in my opinion.

Have Preston, Brentford, Forest?  There ain’t a lot in it. Leeds, West Brom and Fulham definitely have better squads imho.

I don’t think we are making the most of what we have.  Whether that is through muddied recruitment or tactics on the pitch, we will all have our views.  In Preston, Brentford and Forest’s case I see cohesion, even if you don’t always get the results you expect.

I appreciate 5-8th ain’t much different than saying 9th-14th for example, but I think we have all the tools to be top 6th...and the fact that we are 7th isn’t over-achievement imho.  I will be disappointed if we finish 7th/8th, but accept it if it’s a tight run thing, even if it comes down to last game v Preston and we ultimately don’t get the right result.  Finishing 9th or lower with a whimper, will be a lot worse.

Big 12 games.  I’ve not lost hope.  But it will take improvement.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Maltshoveller said:

We win against teams below us

We lose against teams above us

That makes things simple -we are not good enough to be a top team in this league

Its when a team gets up for big games and win but get beat buy lesser teams which piss me off

thats shows bad attitude 

Well surely the stats suggest we have a good attitude but just aren’t very good in that case?

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well, decent question  "Are we flat track bullies?"

The thing is we haven't bullied anyone this season, even against Huddersfield  we won 5-2
possession was 41/59 in their favour
Shots 12/11 
On target 8/5
Corners 4/4

Hull 3-1
possession was 47/53 in their favour
Shots 16/10 
On target 4/6
Corners 6/9

QPR 2-0
possession was 44/56 in their favour
Shots 9/15 
On target 3/2
Corners 3/6

I think the only other game we won by more than one goal was Luton, where the stats look more like a 3-0 game. My point being we can't be flat track bullies if we don't actually bully teams. What we do is find it easier to hang onto a lead against poorer sides, Reading and QPR away were like the Alamo for the last 15 minutes, those moments did show at least the team can give everything to defend for each other. What we don't do is dominate, retain possession and pass through teams like the good sides do.

Bloody hell I'm down, had a lovely weekend with the inlays down and a drunken weekend for a niece's 21st Birthday with one stain/blight in the middle. Ah well football eh? Bring on Tuesday :sad26:???

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5 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Are we flat track bullies who thrive on beating the weaker teams in the league? The stats would suggest the answer is an alarming yes. 

A very interesting take on our performances this season. It's strange because simultaneously we're better against teams that constrict us and limit out possession yet we've got the results against the supposed weaker teams.

Maybe it says more about the evolution of football in general but I mean it when I say we're a proper enigma of a squad.

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1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

well, decent question  "Are we flat track bullies?"

The thing is we haven't bullied anyone this season, even against Huddersfield  we won 5-2
possession was 41/59 in their favour
Shots 12/11 
On target 8/5
Corners 4/4

Hull 3-1
possession was 47/53 in their favour
Shots 16/10 
On target 4/6
Corners 6/9

QPR 2-0
possession was 44/56 in their favour
Shots 9/15 
On target 3/2
Corners 3/6

I think the only other game we won by more than one goal was Luton, where the stats look more like a 3-0 game. My point being we can't be flat track bullies if we don't actually bully teams. What we do is find it easier to hang onto a lead against poorer sides, Reading and QPR away were like the Alamo for the last 15 minutes, those moments did show at least the team can give everything to defend for each other. What we don't do is dominate, retain possession and pass through teams like the good sides do.

Bloody hell I'm down, had a lovely weekend with the inlays down and a drunken weekend for a niece's 21st Birthday with one stain/blight in the middle. Ah well football eh? Bring on Tuesday :sad26:???

Jeez only read this after I posted. So true. We are a team designed for a thesis by any student of football statistics. We are bizarre, predictable yet unascertainable, steady yet utterly random. I know what I expect from these final 12 games yet not a single £ of my money is going anywhere near them. 

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3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

And typically, the sum of the parts has pulled us through in the past.

I don’t believe we are a mid-table squad on paper (yeah, yeah, game ain’t played on paper, I know!), but we have a squad that I think are 5th-8th ability wise.

Keeper - recent mistakes aside, been one of the best this season.

Left Back - one of the best in the division.

Centre Backs - one got promoted twice and cost £7m. Another, when fit, has almost 100 games in the Premier, and has been playing really well this season.  We’ve just loaned an £11m player too.

Centre Forward - we now have one of the top scorers in the league, alongside a reasonable target man

Midfield centrally we have been a right mixed bag, but potential there with the likes of Palmer and Paterson (as good as many technically in this division).

Wing - Eliasson highly rated by lots.

Have Blackburn, Cardiff, MIllwall, etc (the teams below us) got better squads than us?  Not in my opinion.

Have Preston, Brentford, Forest?  There ain’t a lot in it. Leeds, West Brom and Fulham definitely have better squads imho.

I don’t think we are making the most of what we have.  Whether that is through muddied recruitment or tactics on the pitch, we will all have our views.  In Preston, Brentford and Forest’s case I see cohesion, even if you don’t always get the results you expect.

I appreciate 5-8th ain’t much different than saying 9th-14th for example, but I think we have all the tools to be top 6th...and the fact that we are 7th isn’t over-achievement imho.  I will be disappointed if we finish 7th/8th, but accept it if it’s a tight run thing, even if it comes down to last game v Preston and we ultimately don’t get the right result.  Finishing 9th or lower with a whimper, will be a lot worse.

Big 12 games.  I’ve not lost hope.  But it will take improvement.

 

 

God I should have read this whole thread before posting. 

@Fordy62 I may well be pissed but I think this is my favourite thread of the season. You've asked the key question that underpins our season.

The answer informs everything. Why is our xG mental? How can Fam be POTY? How is LJ simultaneously a genius and a fraud? How is Baker such an important player? Eliasson?

As @1960maaan says: ah well football eh?

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