How bad does it have to get

[Bristol Oil Services]

15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

That for me is it in a nutshell.  He frustrates the hell out of me at times, but it’s because I’m an outsider.  At other times I get some real insight from him that brings me into the inside (virtually) and I can see some rationale.  But those flaws (from my perspective) keep biting him on the bum.  He is no mug, by the nature of forums is probably 60:40 biased to criticism.  Even as a 7th placed team we’ve failed to win 56% of games, so that lends itself to negativity.

I’m still hopeful we can put a run together, or capture enough points to overhaul one of the teams above us.  I ain’t giving up, no matter how disappointed I get by individual matches.

It is a very good question Bob.  Even the wonderful “net spend” you could argue is partly down to the “inflationary” effect Tv money has had, and the normality of being able to lose £13m a year has.

If we look at players like Webster and Brownhill, we’ve moved them on for fantastic fees (nobody can dispute that).  But compare that to buying Mo Eisa, who does bugger all for us, and yet you can still sell him for a profit.  To me that says that (huge generalisation don’t get me wrong), if you buy predominantly young players you can’t fail to make a profit.  Generally they are on their upward development curve and the fact that they get better means they are likely to be worth more.  If that is our model, I’m fine with it, but then you can’t moan when we sell players either.

That’s not to undermine the successes of our transfer dealings, but it’s just a question mark against the argument that it’s all down to Lee (and the coaches).  Of course he has had an effect on players, I just think it’s fair to ask “what went wrong with the ones that didn’t work out” and not accept that those were the ones Mark Ashton signed!!

If he does want to be like Wilder, then he needs to find his blueprint and stick with it.  Perhaps that blueprint was the 4-4-2 (4-6-0) of Reid and Pato of 17/18.  Focus on what made that so good, and why it stopped working.  Perhaps all it really needed was another Brownhill or Pack type to rotate the midfield?

This is a big fear for me.  I watched the following TedTalk about a year ago and it stuck with me.  Worth a watch, watch the whole thing.  I thought we had to improve our goal difference from +6 to +16/18, to make the play-offs, an increase of 10/12.  I didn’t care whether it came from more goals scored or less goals against or both.  We sit here today on -1.  The Points Column is obviously the most important, but GD has a massive correlation too.

 

Fascinating stuff, Dave - the Ted talk - and food for thought, and perhaps geniune cause for concern, or critical scrutiny might be better, of and for our performance. And future prospects.

I don't imagine those saying "but Brentford are only three points ahead" have watched this.

While going from 18th to 17th, then 11th to 8th  (and now 7th) in the table our GD under Lee has been:

-6

+9

+6

-1

But I don't know what we make of this?! Can't help but be impressed/fascinated by Brentford /Benham at the moment, though. What would they/he do with us/LJ right now?

 

 

[Alessandro]

15 hours ago, publandlord said:

would you say he has improved Massengo, or Nagy  or even Kalas?

would you say Taylor Moore and Liam Walsh are more likely to improve away from Ashton Gate?

 

The first paragraph - I think it’s far too soon to be talking about Massengo or Nagy. Nagy has been injured for much of the season and has documented the fact it’s taken him time to settle here. Massengo, not only is he 18, he is in his first full season. New country, new intensity of football. It’s no surprise to me that he’s dropped off as the season has gone on and it’s the usual pattern in a lot of young players development. If you’re  making these sort of statements, I’ll say one word to you, Eliasson, because he was for some time another unimproved, waste of money, Johnson flop.

The second paragraph - Who knows? Perhaps and it’s dependant on their specific needs to develop, every player is different and there are many paths.

IMO you can’t use it as a stick to beat the manager or club though. Let’s take Tammy Abraham for example, now in the Chelsea first team and an England international, when virtually his whole development was at other clubs. I’m sure Chelsea don’t care though.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

Fascinating stuff, Dave - the Ted talk - and food for thought, and perhaps geniune cause for concern, or critical scrutiny might be better, of and for our performance. And future prospects.

I don't imagine those saying "but Brentford are only three points ahead" have watched this.

While going from 18th to 17th, then 11th to 8th  (and now 7th) in the table our GD under Lee has been:

-6

+9

+6

-1

But I don't know what we make of this?! Can't help but be impressed/fascinated by Brentford /Benham at the moment, though. What would they/he do with us/LJ right now?

 

 

After @Kid in the Riot’s post I went back and had a deeper look at Brentford’s financial activity.

They have spent quite a lot in the last 4 years whilst recouping good transfer profits too. So you could argue their activity ain’t much difference to ours.

The distinguishing thing is they’re doing that on a lower income / turnover with lower costs. Those lower costs come from lower operational costs and lower amortisation of contracts, suggesting they aren’t spending as much on transfers and not recouping quite as much too.

If we take comparable years accounts 2016/17/18 (BFC not published 2019 yet), then they’ve made £12.9m loss versus ours of £20.9m. So £8m better off than us.

In summary, I would subjectively say they are performing better / more efficiently than us based on 50% of our turnover, but if you look at pure transfers profit AMOUNT there isn’t much difference.

If you look at it as Transfer Receipts divided by Transfers Paid, they are probably doing a tad better.

Not a lot in it, and let’s wait until the end of the season!!!

[BrizzleRed]

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

After @Kid in the Riot’s post I went back and had a deeper look at Brentford’s financial activity.

They have spent quite a lot in the last 4 years whilst recouping good transfer profits too. So you could argue their activity ain’t much difference to ours.

The distinguishing thing is they’re doing that on a lower income / turnover with lower costs. Those lower costs come from lower operational costs and lower amortisation of contracts, suggesting they aren’t spending as much on transfers and not recouping quite as much too.

If we take comparable years accounts 2016/17/18 (BFC not published 2019 yet), then they’ve made £12.9m loss versus ours of £20.9m. So £8m better off than us.

In summary, I would subjectively say they are performing better / more efficiently than us based on 50% of our turnover, but if you look at pure transfers profit AMOUNT there isn’t much difference.

If you look at it as Transfer Receipts divided by Transfers Paid, they are probably doing a tad better.

Not a lot in it, and let’s wait until the end of the season!!!

One big difference though Dave, is they have an ‘identity’ and trademark playing style, whereas we clearly don’t.  

 

I bet they aren’t regularly bleating about not having the right players to fit their system and even though they are also known for selling players, they seem to have a very effective recruitment policy to keep bringing in new players to fit their style.

 

If SL really is serious about us being sustainable and successful I hope he’s watching Brentford very carefully.  They may not be that far from us in the table, but I’d love to watch their brand of football every week, as opposed to ours.

[REDOXO]

16 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

Yeah but our players were all ill and couldn’t even train that week. 

Yes didn’t help....What was the problem for the last couple of years at home?

[Swede]

On ‎24‎/‎02‎/‎2020 at 10:05, Clutton Caveman said:

I just wonder how bad things have to get before some sort of pressure comes onto LJ by the owners Its a results lead business. Now is not the time to make changes. It will be reviewed at the end of the season.

Week after week we see the same problems There have been so many changes in key positions brought about by transfers & injuries. Dasilva, Kalas, Smith & of course Afobe. All that have had a major impact on our season, yet we're still 7th.

No movement off the ball so we pass sideways or backwards or hoof it towards Fam. That's down to available personnel. Dhiedhiou is never going to run in behind and make the sort of diagonal runs that Afobe does. The loss of Brownhill has also impacted on the movement. Henriksen is a different type of player.

Constantly out muscled in midfield winning almost no 50-50 balls and nothing in the air. (finally our genius coach says "we lacked physicality in midfield) How can he be surprised when he buys and plays midgets. How he can pick Nagy is beyond me. What does he offer? and why can he not pass. Surely Joe Morrel could add more than this journeyman. Henriksen is quite tall and physical but hasn't played this season. Everyone was waxing lyrical about Nagy, he then picks up an ankle injury that requires an operation probably at the end of the season otherwise if he had it now he would miss the rest of the run in. I believe he is 24 and along with Henriksen [27] are full internationals for their respective countries and have played at higher levels than the Championship, so hardly "journeymen." Both were way below their best against WBA. I am not sure [given their experience and the type of players they undoubtedly are], I can't see how our astute Head Coach can be blamed for that. As for Joe Morrell, he is a really good prospect currently gaining experience in League 1 which is the level below our current level. I can see him making an impact for us next season.

We play DeSilva and Eliasson on one side which is an invitation for the opposition to load a big guy out there and walk past us Dasilva is remarkably good in the air for his height. Joe Bryan was always susceptible to the long diagonal ball. Playing as a wing back [further forward] there will often be space in behind. Elliason is improving but offers little from a defensive point of view at the moment.

When was the last time we saw a free kick routine from the training ground Like the majority of us I don't see the free kick routines that are practiced.

When was the last time we saw our players using black arts like the "tactical foul" that all teams employ against us Jack Hunt's done this on a few occasions [Birmingham away for example] Nathan Baker enjoys a tackle or two too!

How often do we get a ball out wide in advanced positions only to find that our player out there is isolated and his team mates show no inclination to bust a gut to get up in support That's up to formations. I've often seen Jack Hunt helping Elliason and Dasilva too.

How often do we see our players look up, see nobody showing for a pass and after hitting it long, then show massive frustration asking for options That's down to the club's philosophy of selling affects the continuity on the pitch but we're still 7th.

On Saturday we saw Eliasson stay on the centre circle for WBA corners keeping 2 tall players out of the game. How did he then for the next corners come back into his box bring one giant with him and another just outside of the box. Perhaps that's down to Elliason anticipating danger.

How often do we see away teams at AG leave nobody up for our corners. I can't recall.

Each week we see opposition managers fully engaged with there team, encouraging, instructing and having an influence where our man prefers to winge to the 4th official. He's there encouraging the players, believe me.

I played football for 28 years, I have watched City for far longer I for me it is obvious that this coach has run his cycle, run out of ideas, run out of energy, run out of self belief and run out of credibility with his players and the fans. I disagree with that. We have improved our League position on a consistent basis and have increased attendances and whilst the football this season hasn't hit the heights of the cup semi final season the injuries and personnel changes have definitely affected the continuity on the pitch.

All of the above problems have existed for months yet do we see anything happening to correct them? I have rarely seen a BCFC team p[lay with so little belief at AG. I think there is a lot of work being done. We were in the game for the first 20 - 25 minutes on Saturday but you can't legislate for individual errors. We are constantly having to re evaluate  our position and style.

So again I ask JUST HOW BAD DOES IT HAVE TO GET BEFORE LJ IS REPLACED. That's easy to answer, remember the Derek McWinless era, that was full of journeymen [McManus & Bates] and "quite small people" [Jody Morris] 

 

I could go on for pages and I challenge anyone to write 10 positive points that LJ is currently bring to the team.

Its all about opinions and there are in my view, some valid points but we're still in a good position. What we all want is a really good end to the season and we all want the same thing which is success for Bristol City.

Its just putting that run together. Save for the top three or four teams the rest are beating each other and that includes teams with parachute payments.

Keep the faith.