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The “we are 7th” argument...


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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s not desperation.  You tell me why I feel so deflated after yesterday, when we sit in 7th position.  I like to think I’m as rational as the next bloke, others feel the same way, who are decent posters on OTIB too.  This isn’t just a swarming (no busy bee pun intended) of “LJ Out’ers”....it’s genuine concern.

What are the positives?  We got a point yesterday?  Any others?

If that was a “performance we can build on”, we’ve lowered the bar massively.

Had he said “that was a result we can build on” I could get my head around that.  But if he thinks “a performance to build on” is creating hardly any changes, hardly keeping the ball (beyond playing it around the back 4 to increase our possession stats to 49%) whilst allowing a team like MIllwall to create endless pressure, then I can’t agree.

Why not provide the counter-argument, persuade me to alter my opinion, rather than just poo-pooh our posts?

Don’t quite have the time for long lengthy posts I’m afraid. The OP said we were 7th through luck, which is what I was responding too. That is frankly nonsense. No team is in a position through luck in March.  

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10 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Indeed HRH

What does amaze me on here is the number of people who cite Brentford and what they have acheived on a small budget (is it still 3 points difference ?). Perceived by many on here as being a "minnow" of a club but who also forget they are currently building a new stadium etc etc so not hard to see where a lot of their money is being spent. No doubt some of the money made from transfers is being funnelled into this.  Add to that the income they will receive from selling Griffin Park (lets remember we made diddly squat from selling AG) and I imagine they are doing quite nicely thank you very much. In my tiny mind they come across as a club very similar to ourselves.

Those 3 points difference in a league of “fine margins” isn’t the full argument imho.  The fuller argument is that they have achieved 3 more points and a 28 goal difference swing (so might as well call it 4 points) on a lower income and lower cost base than us.  They have been more efficient with their 8.33% points per game difference over us.  They too are constrained by finances, more constrained than us because of turnover.  That’s why we talk positively about them.  Are they perfect no.  But if you gave me 57 points and a +26 goal difference on their budget and their style of play, LJ would be getting a lot of praise from me.  And it’s not just LJ too....it’s not all him.  SL and MA...and the players too.

6 minutes ago, RedDave said:

Don’t quite have the time for long lengthy posts I’m afraid. The OP said we were 7th through luck, which is what I was responding too. That is frankly nonsense. No team is in a position through luck in March.  

Just bullet point a few then?

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Those 3 points difference in a league of “fine margins” isn’t the full argument imho.  The fuller argument is that they have achieved 3 more points and a 28 goal difference swing (so might as well call it 4 points) on a lower income and lower cost base than us.  They have been more efficient with their 8.33% points per game difference over us.  They too are constrained by finances, more constrained than us because of turnover.  That’s why we talk positively about them.  Are they perfect no.  But if you gave me 57 points and a +26 goal difference on their budget and their style of play, LJ would be getting a lot of praise from me.  And it’s not just LJ too....it’s not all him.  SL and MA...and the players too.

Just bullet point a few then?

The desperation is shown when people put our league position down to luck 

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7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Whether you hate LJ or not, you don't get to 7th with 2 months left through luck! ?

You get there cause the rest of the league is poor.

It's our fault that it's harder to win games, not the rest of the championship's. 

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7th = Also Rans

7th = Losers

If staying in the Championship is regarded as 'success' aim to finish 21st. Do so cheaply as possible, don't lose £36m a year, or pay over inflated wages for dross, or sign so many players one is unable to keep track of them.

 

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Is the league poor?

The teams that came up are 20th, 23rd and 24th.

The teams that came down are 3rd 11th and 17th.

We have  tendency to describe things as poor if they're even.I look at the quality of players in this league as improving generally year on year.

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1 hour ago, Shtanley said:

You get there cause the rest of the league is poor.

It's our fault that it's harder to win games, not the rest of the championship's. 

Point 1 is bollox 

Point 2 is pretty much spot on

The fact is we are in 7th due our own form / performance.

 

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The Championship does seem to have to more ‘shock’ results this season tho. The top team losing at home to Wigan yesterday. Iirc they lost at home to Stoke as well.......

Even us losing at Huddersfield was seen as a shock to other Championship clubs.

The bottom line is that any team in the  Championship can beat any other team and I can’t remember this league being as unpredictable as it it this season,

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Despite LJ's meddling, we are 7th.

If he could learn to stop meddling, stop over thinking it, we'd be higher.

Strangely, I like Lee, but if he doesn't do better next season (it could be sooner if he really f's up the rest of the season), I suspect he's days are numbered.

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6 hours ago, bcfcfinker said:

Despite LJ's meddling, we are 7th.

If he could learn to stop meddling, stop over thinking it, we'd be higher.

Strangely, I like Lee, but if he doesn't do better next season (it could be sooner if he really f's up the rest of the season), I suspect he's days are numbered.

If we do not make the play offs this season then next season he will be not doing better next season at Ashton gate as he will be with another club. Probably one close to the relegation spot in this seasons championship. He will then get this other club up to a good quality mid table championship side as lets face it he is only as good as that. A good manager but not a great manager.

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7 hours ago, bcfcfinker said:

Despite LJ's meddling, we are 7th.

If he could learn to stop meddling, stop over thinking it, we'd be higher.

Strangely, I like Lee, but if he doesn't do better next season (it could be sooner if he really f's up the rest of the season), I suspect he's days are numbered.

Yep, I also like LJ and really want him to succeed. Think lots of the criticism he's receiving at the moment is fair and understandable.

For me - I expect playoffs this season; especially as he's been backed in Jan. At the start of Feb I decided this will be my barometer.

  1. Make playoffs (regardless whether we win them or lose) - LJ in for 20/21
  2. Slip out of playoffs BUT we start playing entertaining football with a clear 'identity', Wells starts scoring, Afobe comes back in looking good and things look a bit better - LJ in for 20/21.
  3. Slip out of the playoffs - football remains poor, new signings not performing/not being picked, rumours of dressing room disharmony, no clear 'identity' in how we play - LJ out for 20/21

At the moment, sadly, we're performing like option 3. I really hope he can turn it round though. Have a feeling we might beat Fulham for some reason.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Yep, I also like LJ and really want him to succeed. Think lots of the criticism he's receiving at the moment is fair and understandable.

For me - I expect playoffs this season; especially as he's been backed in Jan. At the start of Feb I decided this will be my barometer.

  1. Make playoffs (regardless whether we win them or lose) - LJ in for 20/21
  2. Slip out of playoffs BUT we start playing entertaining football with a clear 'identity', Wells starts scoring, Afobe comes back in looking good and things look a bit better - LJ in for 20/21.
  3. Slip out of the playoffs - football remains poor, new signings not performing/not being picked, rumours of dressing room disharmony, no clear 'identity' in how we play - LJ out for 20/21

At the moment, sadly, we're performing like option 3. I really hope he can turn it round though. Have a feeling we might beat Fulham for some reason.

 

The majority would agree with you I think on options 1 and 2 and option 1 as the ultimate. Option 3 though unfortunately is more likely as it started to go down hill since I was back in the UK at the home match against Blackburn.

lets hope we do pull the rabbit out of the hat and beat  Fulham. If we do though we are still not consistent to keep the winning momentum going.

Theres probably an option 5,6,7 and 8 as well. One of which LJ does not stay for the remainder of the season and things turn around dramatically. I might be dreaming  but if this an option and we end up undertaking an unbeaten streak to the end of the season finish 3rd and get promoted by winning the play off final then that’s the option for me.

 

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18 hours ago, RedDave said:

The desperation to find as many sticks to hit LJ with is laughable. And any positives are being regularly excused.  

I agree I don't care who manages the club but people need to remember thr Steve Copple master stroke, we were dreadful for ages after all the churn that caused.  

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The league is starting to develop a familiar shape now, with the top teams starting to get some consistency and City dropping further behind. I imagine we'll end up missing out by around 4pts, which will keep LJ in a job and have people banging on about year on year progress, when in actual fact it will have been a disappointing season. 

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3 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

I thought we ARE 7th. No argument about it - it’s fact. 
There are 17 teams in a worse league position - again, fact. You can’t argue with the table. 
 

Now, form and trends are different..........

Agreed the table is the table. I would like to ask you though what position do you think we would be in if we did not throw stupid performances. I think we should be more like 9 points in the positive. Form and trends are out the window with city since late November.

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The 'anyone can beat anyone in this league' argument is objectively correct, but it seems to ignore other facts like...

West Brom have only lost 5 games so most teams can beat them, but don't. Because, presumably, West Brom are a superior outfit.

Equally, Fulham and Leeds win more than 50% of their games. So whilst any team can beat them, half the time teams lose to them.

So when people say 'anyone can...' I wonder why they are pretending that all teams are equal. They're not. Some are better than others.

The question remains then, are City better than most (eg top 6), or just average (mid-table)?

Our current position is so close to both that it's natural that we're still trying to figure that out and disputing strong claims either way.

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