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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


Loderingo

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17 minutes ago, SX227 said:

To put this in perspective

The last pandemics were

SARS (thanfully stopped)

AIDS

Spanish Flu (up to 100 million dead)

Black Death (50% of Europe died)

Smallpox

 

The difference with this bad boy is a long 'incubation period' up to 27 days with no symptoms in extreme cases.And it is quickly mutating.

You are able to re-contract it

High mortality rate (currently tracking at 3% on reported cases to death ratio, Iran is very bad) - seasonal flu kills 0.4 - 0.5% of people.

Ratio of infection is about 1:4 (one person gives it to 4 others)

The whole world will eventually get it - there is no way to vaccinate in time.

It affects anyone, but yes pre-existing conditions such as smoking, diabetes, being fat, high alcohol, poor diet, cancer etc etc mean you are at much higher risk. BUT completely healthy 30-40 yr olds are dying as well.

This could kill 3-5% of the worlds population, as while places like the US, Australia,Canada have incredibly advanced health systems - Pakistan,India Iran South America Africa etc etc do not, and they will be hit very hard.

Iran being the prime example at the moment - 34 deaths out of 388 cases (as of 10.30am  29/02/2020) - that's 9% Death rate.

This isn't a sniffle - this pandemic - because that's what it is - even if it kills 2% world wide means upward of 140,000,000 deaths.

So yes, in Western Europe, you will mostly be fine - but 1% - 2% of you will die

The lesser developed nations will suffer very badly indeed.

Agreed. Although we have had recent scares about SARS, Swine flu, MERS & Ebola, the worry is that this virus has the perfect combination of being novel, so no one has immunity or has been vaccinated, highly infectious and with what seems a long incubation period with minimal symptoms, so many people will catch it, and lethal enough to kill a significant percentage, but not so many that people die before spreading it.

Out of 7 billion people on the planet, if even only 1 billion are infected, a 1% mortality rate equals 10 million deaths worldwide. The reality is that many more people will catch this virus in the next year, because of the virus characteristics and the fact that the world is so interconnected these days. And although many deaths will be among the older and less well, there have been plenty of reports of younger people dying, especially health workers or anyone who has had potential multiple exposures.

The NHS is taking this very seriously indeed, and the risk of hospitals being swamped with cases is not a scare tactic. It is a genuine concern.

Realistically the season is unlikely to be cancelled, but there is likely to be an impact on anything where large numbers of people meet, particularly sporting fixtures, which will either be postponed (such as 6 Nations games), played behind closed doors, or even in some cases, like the Chinese Grand Prix, cancelled. On that basis, both Euro 2020 and the Tokyo Olympics are at serious risk of just not taking place, because if the virus still spreads as readily in warmer temperatures, as per the other coronaviruses that infect humans, then the summer could be the start of the peak infective period running into next winter and beyond..

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On 23/02/2020 at 11:42, Loderingo said:

The Italians cancelled all games in Lombardy and Veneto regions today including Inter vs Sampdoria to try and contain an outbreak of Coronavirus.

Unfortunately, it looks like the efforts to contain this virus globally have failed and it is only a matter of time until we get a major outbreak here. I suspect we could also see games being cancelled to try and contain any outbreak here. 

This could be a big issue for the football authorities (as well as the NHS of course and the Government). If the season isn’t cancelled, I could see games being held behind closed doors.

 

I dont think football matches in England will be played behind closed doors. 

Look at China they seem to now be getting it under control a little. Italy will do the same and so will all the other countries around the world that have a decent health care systems . (Waiting now for the NHS critics)

Australia at the moment only have a hand full of cases and its under control. 

There will obviously be  cases coming up in the UK. Apparently you have to have other chronic illnesses along with the Coronavirus to un fortunately kick the bucket..

 

 

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44 minutes ago, City oz said:

I dont think football matches in England will be played behind closed doors. 

Look at China they seem to now be getting it under control a little. Italy will do the same and so will all the other countries around the world that have a decent health care systems . (Waiting now for the NHS critics)

Australia at the moment only have a hand full of cases and its under control. 

There will obviously be  cases coming up in the UK. Apparently you have to have other chronic illnesses along with the Coronavirus to un fortunately kick the bucket..

 

 

I posted too soon. As of 0900 WAST time Australia are now implementing travel bans in to Australia from Italy, Korea and Iran. There are very large communities of Italians across Australia and most reside in the suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, it is estimated there are over 135,000.00 of them in these two areas alone. There are thousands each week from Italy that fly in to Australia to stay with family friends. 

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34 minutes ago, City oz said:

I posted too soon. 

Too many people are mate (nothing personal!)

This impact of this disease if this laisse-faire attitude continues will be devastating.

Just reading this thread shows self-quarantine will never work in some sections of the community.

Refresh this frequently to keep up to date:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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4 minutes ago, SX227 said:

Too many people are mate (nothing personal!)

This impact of this disease if this laisse-faire attitude continues will be devastating.

Just reading this thread shows self-quarantine will never work in some sections of the community.

Refresh this frequently to keep up to date:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Great web site and very informative. There is a positive over 39,000 have recovered.

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1 hour ago, City oz said:

I dont think football matches in England will be played behind closed doors. 

Yes, they will - if played at all

Look at China they seem to now be getting it under control a little. Italy will do the same and so will all the other countries around the world that have a decent health care systems . (Waiting now for the NHS critics)

You believe Chinese data?

Australia at the moment only have a hand full of cases and its under control. 

Growing, and only just controlled due to banning of entry - which is being circumvented by 50 - 100,000 chinese students hopping to a 3rd destination country to beat the no-fly ban. 

There will obviously be  cases coming up in the UK. Apparently you have to have other chronic illnesses along with the Coronavirus to un fortunately kick the bucket..

Nope, healthy 30yr old have died.A 27 yr old woman got it twice, and now a DOG in Hong Kong has tested positive - so it's now mutated to Animal-Human-Animal

 

 

 

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It is somewhat more dangerous than flu no doubt but the media are something else. They need stories to survive themselves and a worldwide pandemic is high on the list of scary and shock stories for people to read and grip them. If you've watched any of Charlie Brookers old material you'll know fear is one of their greatest tools. 

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4 hours ago, TheCulturalBomb said:

It is somewhat more dangerous than flu no doubt but the media are something else. They need stories to survive themselves and a worldwide pandemic is high on the list of scary and shock stories for people to read and grip them. If you've watched any of Charlie Brookers old material you'll know fear is one of their greatest tools. 

It's considerably more dangerous than flu, and more contagious. 

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On 26/02/2020 at 15:01, Super said:

Ireland v Italy in the rugby called off. Wonder if some of the European football games will go the same way.

Apparently the rugby was called off because an estimated 5000 Italians have booked flights and accommodation. Considering that insurance companies are not paying out for cancellations due to the virus, it seems a rather bizarre decision. Do they think those Italians will just stay at home? Of course they won't!

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As a species we're going to have to accept the existence of this virus and live with it, or cower and hide in fear.  I don't see the point in stopping normal life and sporting events, it's going to ultimately spread around the world anyway - it's impossible to stop people from having contact with others and spreading the contagion.

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10 hours ago, MattWSM said:

This will all go away and be forgotten very soon. 

200 years ago we had the Black Plague (oops shouldn’t have said that) the Flu, Cancer, Heart attacks, also kills millions across the world every year and we still ain’t got needles for them have we. Ok  this new virus is highly contagious but lets see what happens over the next few months. I hope it doesn’t drag out like Brexit did.

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it will soon be so prevalent that whether you go to sports fixtures or not will make little difference.  80% of the population will have it or get it and for most it will be mild.  At the moment containment will have some effect but by May it will be way beyond that point.  I really don't believe that this virus is stoppable.

The worrying bit is the 2% mortality rate, though normal flu is probably 1% isn't it.  I doubt that a vaccine will be available until the next flu season and because of the type of virus it is, I doubt whether it is going to burn itself out.

While we are in the containment phase, many events will be cancelled, but by May there will probably be no point.

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55 minutes ago, City oz said:

200 years ago we had the Black Plague (oops shouldn’t have said that) the Flu, Cancer, Heart attacks, also kills millions across the world every year and we still ain’t got needles for them have we. Ok  this new virus is highly contagious but lets see what happens over the next few months. I hope it doesn’t drag out like Brexit did.

You do realise cancer and heart attacks aren't contagious?

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2 hours ago, Miah Dennehy said:

Apparently the rugby was called off because an estimated 5000 Italians have booked flights and accommodation. Considering that insurance companies are not paying out for cancellations due to the virus, it seems a rather bizarre decision. Do they think those Italians will just stay at home? Of course they won't!

Not sure there are 5 000 selfish brain dead Italians 

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11 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

It probably will, but it won’t be forgotten by the families of the poor souls who died after contracting this virus - your comment was a bit heartless and cold if I may say so ...

No worries, that definitely wasnt my intention as hopefully you realise.... but if that is how it seems then it's taken out of context and my point is lost. 

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57 minutes ago, wendyredredrobin said:

it will soon be so prevalent that whether you go to sports fixtures or not will make little difference.  80% of the population will have it or get it and for most it will be mild.  At the moment containment will have some effect but by May it will be way beyond that point.  I really don't believe that this virus is stoppable.

The worrying bit is the 2% mortality rate, though normal flu is probably 1% isn't it.  I doubt that a vaccine will be available until the next flu season and because of the type of virus it is, I doubt whether it is going to burn itself out.

While we are in the containment phase, many events will be cancelled, but by May there will probably be no point.

Awful lot of misinformation and guess work here.

Fatality rate currently appears to be around 1%, which makes it 10 times more deadly than ordinary flu, in addition to being substantially more contagious, and without the protection of the flu vaccine that vulnerable members of our society in the UK benefit from.

This means the threat is very substantially greater than flu, with the prospect of killing far more people and overwhelming our health services.

So the dismissive comments further up this thread might well be misguided.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks

 

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13 hours ago, PhilC said:

 

 

I certainly think discussions will be taking place as early as next month. I would imagine there could potentially be a reduction in the number of host cities as you say, if that's feasible.

 

I also wonder how long it will take the British Media to say "It could be the first 'home' tournament since '96 because we already have the infrastructure in place, best stadiums, etc etc..."

 

Personally I would suggest reducing the number of host cities would just condense fans into a smaller number of larger groups which wouldn’t help anything. Likewise any single nation offering to host.

I suspect the tournament will either happen as planned, or not at all. It the situation continues to worsen it would seem inconceivable that it could take place, but then again June is still a way off.

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11 hours ago, The Bard said:

It's extremely contagious which suggests it won't go away until someone finds a vaccine for it. 


 

Is it tho? First case found on new years eve.. Incubation period of 14 days so most likely started mid December... Hubei was locked down on the 23rd of January.. That's nearly 40 days of it being around without anyone doing anything to stop it in an insanely densely populated area and it has effected less then 100k people... 

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1 hour ago, bristolcitysweden said:

 

Liverpool will be crowned champions and the European spots will be taken by the teams in that position once the season is cancelled but no team will be relegated from the PL and no team will be promoted from the Championship. All self evident. The same goes further down the fodder chain.  

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1 hour ago, bristolcitysweden said:

Not sure there are 5 000 selfish brain dead Italians 

I'm willing to bet that most people on this forum, faced with losing a holiday that probably cost around £2K, with no possibility of recompense , would still go on that holiday after considering what would appear to be a minimal health risk to themselves.

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2 hours ago, City oz said:

Oh. Is the flu not contagious. Cancer and heart attacks kill more people every day than the corona virus does at his present time 

I'm guessing I am completely missing your point. Yes they may kill more people but if you isolated people with cancer or heart problems it wouldn't stop others getting it, where as you stop people with a virus it helps to contain it.

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