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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


Loderingo

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8 minutes ago, Riaz said:

Around 2% of people who got the virus in china died. Thats about the same as flu no?

Either way, vast majority of people recover.

It's a lot higher than flu but that's because there is widespread vaccination against flu and particularly within vulnerable groups.

The majority of people who died of CV in China were 70+ with pre-existing medical conditions especially breathing problems; they would have been vaccinated against flu but there is no vaccine for CV as yet (maybe a year away).

The fatality rate would be about the same IMO if there was a non-predicted flu strain that wasn't in the vaccination so I entirely agree with your point if all things were equal.

The lack of a vaccine is obviously terrible news for somebody in a vulnerable group but is also bad for the rest of us because it is the widepsread vaccination against flu that serves to prevent it spreading.

Without a vaccine it's quarantine, stop flights etc. as the only way to stop it spreading.  Which per my previous post has been highly successful to date in the UK and in Singapore (I'm not excluding any other countries but I know that these for two have done a very good job).

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5 minutes ago, The Journalist said:

Didn't realise there were so many Coronavirus experts on here. Very impressive, guys.

Don’t think anyone would claim to be an expert but there is certainly a lot of concern.  Not necessarily from a plague point of view but from a business one.  Opinions and advice from all quarters are being sought.  Look at the stock market. 

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2 hours ago, Loderingo said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/02/28/no-guarantee-liverpool-would-crowned-premier-league-champions/

 

There is no guarantee Liverpool would be crowned Premier League champions if the season was curtailed by the coronavirus, Telegraph Sport can reveal.

There is also no guarantee the bottom three clubs would not be relegated, with no specific regulation in place governing such a scenario.

The rapid spread of the virus has raised the prospect of the Government ordering the cancellation of all sporting events in the UK for more than two months, something that could mean some fixtures never being played.

Were the Premier League season not completed, it is likely crisis talks would take place to determine whether previous results would be allowed to stand or whether the entire campaign was rendered null and void.

Any final ruling could depend on how many fixtures had been played, similar to the results of abandoned matches in some sporting competitions being allowed to stand if a certain percentage of them have been completed.

Depriving Liverpool of their first Premier League title given they are 22 points clear at the top and need only four more wins to be crowned champions would be hugely controversial.

But it would be equally controversial to relegate the bottom three if they are not already doomed when a halt is called to the season given the hundreds of millions of pounds at stake.

The same would apply to European qualification places and also promotion spots in the Championship, which also has play-offs for the final Premier League place.

The piss boiling from the red part of Merseyside would be hilarious if they missed out on the title. 

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25 minutes ago, The Journalist said:

Didn't realise there were so many Coronavirus experts on here. Very impressive, guys.

Most study consist of reading various sources, evaluating them, and then combining them in a work of synthesis.

As a journalist you should know that; original datum points inofthemselves are of little use wthout their being accumulated, set into context and interpreted.

Which is something we can all do.  If I read a dozen books on the American Civil War I would be an expert upon it in that I would know more about it than 99.999% of people.

I'm not espousing the DIY ethic above all other but knowledge has ceased to be bounden by the trades union of the universities ever since the movable type face was invented.

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You're welcome:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak.

Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is not an iron clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can still penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is the main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re just walking around town and not in close contact with others, wearing a mask is unlikely to make any difference.

Claim: ‘You need to be with an infected person for 10 minutes’

For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer. However, it is possible to be infected with shorter interactions or even by picking the virus up from contaminated surfaces, although this is thought to be a less common route of transmission.

Claim: ‘A vaccine could be ready within a few months’

Scientists were quick out of the gates in beginning development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus, helped by the early release of the genetic sequence by Chinese researchers. The development of a viable vaccine continues apace, with several teams now testing candidates in animal experiments. However, the incremental trials required before a commercial vaccine could be rolled out are still a lengthy undertaking – and an essential one to ensure that even rare side-effects are spotted. A commercially available vaccine within a year would be quick.

Claim: ‘If a pandemic is declared, there is nothing more we can do to stop the spread’

A pandemic is defined as worldwide spread of a new disease – but the exact threshold for declaring one is quite vague. In practice, the actions being taken would not change whether or not a pandemic is declared. Containment measures are not simply about eliminating the disease altogether. Delaying the onset of an outbreak or decreasing the peak is crucial in allowing health systems to cope with a sudden influx of patients.

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23 minutes ago, elhombrecito said:

You're welcome:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak.

Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is not an iron clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can still penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is the main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re just walking around town and not in close contact with others, wearing a mask is unlikely to make any difference.

Claim: ‘You need to be with an infected person for 10 minutes’

For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer. However, it is possible to be infected with shorter interactions or even by picking the virus up from contaminated surfaces, although this is thought to be a less common route of transmission.

Claim: ‘A vaccine could be ready within a few months’

Scientists were quick out of the gates in beginning development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus, helped by the early release of the genetic sequence by Chinese researchers. The development of a viable vaccine continues apace, with several teams now testing candidates in animal experiments. However, the incremental trials required before a commercial vaccine could be rolled out are still a lengthy undertaking – and an essential one to ensure that even rare side-effects are spotted. A commercially available vaccine within a year would be quick.

Claim: ‘If a pandemic is declared, there is nothing more we can do to stop the spread’

A pandemic is defined as worldwide spread of a new disease – but the exact threshold for declaring one is quite vague. In practice, the actions being taken would not change whether or not a pandemic is declared. Containment measures are not simply about eliminating the disease altogether. Delaying the onset of an outbreak or decreasing the peak is crucial in allowing health systems to cope with a sudden influx of patients.

Noticed a lot of other forums have banned virus talk until fixtures etc are confirmed to be cancelled to stop hysteria and scaremongering. Liverpool being one. Might be an idea to do so here and leave your post pinned? Just a thought 

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46 minutes ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

The piss boiling from the red part of Merseyside would be hilarious if they missed out on the title. 

It would indeed. Although given that they'd never, ever shut up whining about it, I'd almost rather we let everyone snuff it.

 

Edited by Northern Red
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2 hours ago, elhombrecito said:

You're welcome:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak.

Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is not an iron clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can still penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is the main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly five-fold protection versus no barrier. If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re just walking around town and not in close contact with others, wearing a mask is unlikely to make any difference.

Claim: ‘You need to be with an infected person for 10 minutes’

For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer. However, it is possible to be infected with shorter interactions or even by picking the virus up from contaminated surfaces, although this is thought to be a less common route of transmission.

Claim: ‘A vaccine could be ready within a few months’

Scientists were quick out of the gates in beginning development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus, helped by the early release of the genetic sequence by Chinese researchers. The development of a viable vaccine continues apace, with several teams now testing candidates in animal experiments. However, the incremental trials required before a commercial vaccine could be rolled out are still a lengthy undertaking – and an essential one to ensure that even rare side-effects are spotted. A commercially available vaccine within a year would be quick.

Claim: ‘If a pandemic is declared, there is nothing more we can do to stop the spread’

A pandemic is defined as worldwide spread of a new disease – but the exact threshold for declaring one is quite vague. In practice, the actions being taken would not change whether or not a pandemic is declared. Containment measures are not simply about eliminating the disease altogether. Delaying the onset of an outbreak or decreasing the peak is crucial in allowing health systems to cope with a sudden influx of patients.

By that reckoning up to 6,500,000 people could die annually sorry but can't see that happening.

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Reading about that the Olympics may be postponed or canceled all together if there is no improvement by May. 

Do we think this might have a similar impact on the Euro's? Italian football has already been effected by it - could it lead to a delay/cancellation? Or a reduction in the number of countries hosting?

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41 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

Reading about that the Olympics may be postponed or canceled all together if there is no improvement by May. 

Do we think this might have a similar impact on the Euro's? Italian football has already been effected by it - could it lead to a delay/cancellation? Or a reduction in the number of countries hosting?

 

I certainly think discussions will be taking place as early as next month. I would imagine there could potentially be a reduction in the number of host cities as you say, if that's feasible.

 

I also wonder how long it will take the British Media to say "It could be the first 'home' tournament since '96 because we already have the infrastructure in place, best stadiums, etc etc..."

 

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I haven’t read all of this thread so please forgive me if I repeat stuff that’s already been posted. 
my eldest daughter is in China (Shenzhen to be precise). She tells me that the Chinese government has instructed all factories and schools to close and to still pay their workers - and the government will reimburse the cost. 
I’m 53 years old and I honestly can’t remember hype of this scale - SARS, various flu epidemics - never on the scale of this. 
something has spooked the authorities and yet they are telling us to carry on as normal? 
I’m lucky enough to have a wholesaler card so I’m stocking up this weekend. It’s not a panic - I will use the stuff anyway over time - just a precaution. 
 

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To put this in perspective

The last pandemics were

SARS (thanfully stopped)

AIDS

Spanish Flu (up to 100 million dead)

Black Death (50% of Europe died)

Smallpox

 

The difference with this bad boy is a long 'incubation period' up to 27 days with no symptoms in extreme cases.And it is quickly mutating.

You are able to re-contract it

High mortality rate (currently tracking at 3% on reported cases to death ratio, Iran is very bad) - seasonal flu kills 0.4 - 0.5% of people.

Ratio of infection is about 1:4 (one person gives it to 4 others)

The whole world will eventually get it - there is no way to vaccinate in time.

It affects anyone, but yes pre-existing conditions such as smoking, diabetes, being fat, high alcohol, poor diet, cancer etc etc mean you are at much higher risk. BUT completely healthy 30-40 yr olds are dying as well.

This could kill 3-5% of the worlds population, as while places like the US, Australia,Canada have incredibly advanced health systems - Pakistan,India Iran South America Africa etc etc do not, and they will be hit very hard.

Iran being the prime example at the moment - 34 deaths out of 388 cases (as of 10.30am  29/02/2020) - that's 9% Death rate.

This isn't a sniffle - this pandemic - because that's what it is - even if it kills 2% world wide means upward of 140,000,000 deaths.

So yes, in Western Europe, you will mostly be fine - but 1% - 2% of you will die

The lesser developed nations will suffer very badly indeed.

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