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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


Loderingo

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28 minutes ago, havanatopia said:

Here is the background to your question:-

the latest figures from the Robert Koch Institute show that the country has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.3 per cent, while the World Health Organisation (WHO) figures from Italy seem to show a CFR of 9 per cent? To say there is a vast gulf between those figures is an understatement. If nine per cent of people who catch Covid-19 are going to die from it we are facing a calamity beyond parallel in the modern world. If only 0.3 per cent of people who catch it die from it, this pandemic may yet turn out to be no worse than seasonal flu which it is estimated, by the US Centers for Disease Control, to kill between 291,000 and 646,000 people a year without the world really noticing. According to John Hopkins University, which is collating fatalities data, 15,308 have died to date.

and the probable reason...

So which is closer to the real situation, Italy’s experience or Germany’s? Various theories have been put forward for Germany’s low death rate: for example that many of those who have tested positive for Covid-19 are young people who had returned from skiing holidays in Italy. The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy. Some have expressed the fear that young German skiers will slowly infect their parents and grandparents’ generation, and that the death rate will steadily rise as the disease works its way through more vulnerable elderly people.

Germany is almost certainly behind Italy in this epidemic. But the main difference between Germany and Italy lies in those countries’ respective attitudes towards testing. Germany has carried out far more enthusiastic testing of the general population – there does not seem to be a central figure for this, but the German Doctors’ Association has estimated that 200,000 people across the country have been tested. In Britain, it is 64,000 people. On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.

This matters hugely to the Case Fatality Rate for each country. CFR is not to be confused with the genuine Mortality Rate. The former is simply the number of deaths divided by the number of recorded cases. The latter is the number of deaths divided by the actual number of people who have been infected by the disease. Trouble is, nobody knows the latter figure because no country has tested its entire population to see who has or has had the disease. What we do know is that large numbers of people who have been confirmed as having the disease only have mild symptoms – 45 per cent according to Italy’s National Institute for Health. One in 10 have no symptoms at all. There must be many others who have been infected but haven’t been tested and therefore who do now show up as confirmed cases.

It stands to reason that the more people who are tested, the more accurate a picture we will have of the mortality rate, the transmission rate and other metrics which will determine the eventual path of this pandemic. To underline the uncertainties behind the data from which policy is currently being made, the Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the other day estimated the number of people in Britain who already have or have had Covid-19 at between 6,000 and 23 million. That is a pretty broad spread with hugely different implications. If only 6,000 have the disease in Britain, socially-distancing the population or locking down society might have a purpose. If 23 million have the disease, it is pointless – it already has ripped its way through the population but without killing more than a tiny percentage.

What we really need is a huge effort to test a large randomised sample of the population to see how widespread the infection is. Hopefully, that will soon happen. But in the meantime, I am minded to think that the more accurate picture of Covid-19 comes from the country which has conducted the most tests: Germany.

In summary, and what I have said from early on, the ultimate death rate will be no more than 0.5% of those who contract it or, in the case of current data from Germany, even less. Still a ways to go but all the data, reliably being gathered, is pointing toward that. Flu, remember, is about 0.1%. The burning question then will be has it been worth it trashing the world's economies. The answer will probably be 'did we have any choice' ? But that will leave us with a thousand lessons to learn, worldwide, and hopefully next time, because there will for sure be others, the whole world will not need to shut down.

 

Interesting, have you got a link to this please.

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1 hour ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

As I told a client once, after dealing with a support case, "there's no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask them."

I always used to say to my staff :

There are no stupid questions. Just inquisitive idiots. 

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3 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Ta, I'm supposed to be working, so trying not to read every post......  might have to take the forum offline during office hours ?

toilet rolls.png

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1 hour ago, wayne allisons tongues said:

There death figures don’t include Post Mortem results. 
If they say your in for a heart problem and die they don’t check for Covid 19.

Other countries do test, which is why figures around the world are so confusing/don’t make sense.

I wonder when or if,  they will start including deaths indirectly caused by the virus. People are still having heart attacks, strokes and serious car accidents etc, and if the resources arent available to save them, when they otherwise probably would be, thats a CV related death surely. 

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4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Following brexit me and Mrs F refuse to go to Spoons.....I hope a lot more people do the same now.

A bit petty in my opinion, just because you didn't get your way in the vote, I like to think if the vote had gone the other way I would not have been so childish. I admit the bloke can be a bit abrasive but to refuse to use a pub just because his political opinion is different to yours is a bit daft, you would have to boycott half the businesses in the country if that was the case.

Edited by pillred
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5 minutes ago, pillred said:

A bit petty in my opinion, just because you didn't get your way in the vote, I like to think if the vote had gone the other way I would not have been so childish.

What the hell  is that got to do with the Brexit Vote, he is ****ng his staff about, the same staff that make him money, 

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7 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

What hope have we got ? or are they all macho men the virus wouldn't touch !!!!!!! these people are putting yours and my families life at risk, see references to Germany's figures and I bet this wont be happening there

Edited by oldstandrobin
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8 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

What the hell  is that got to do with the Brexit Vote, he is ****ng his staff about, the same staff that make him money, 

Read the effin post properly, he said he boycotted spoons because of Brexit not for what he has recently done that's what it's got to do with Brexit he had already boycotted the place before this, if you had read what he said you would have realised that.

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2 minutes ago, pillred said:

Read the effin post properly, he said he boycotted spoons because of the Brexit vote not for what he has recently done that's what it's got to do with Brexit he had already boycotted the place before this if you had read what he said you would have realised that.

Sorry your lordship, forelock tugging you are obviously getting stir crazy already pal, try and calm down if yo

u dont like others opinions

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2 minutes ago, pillred said:

I think the phrase pots and kettles comes to mind.

What pub did you run, I was a publican for 10 years and the bloke is a tw*t, dont accuse me of calling pot and kettle, you come across as an aggressive poster who always wants his own way

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1 minute ago, oldstandrobin said:

What pub did you run, I was a publican for 10 years and the bloke is a tw*t, dont accuse me of calling pot and kettle, you come across as an aggressive poster who always wants his own way

I didn't say the bloke wasn't a **** just that to boycott a place because the owner supported Brexit is childish. I can see why with the way he is treating staff someone might not want to patronise the place but not just because he supported leaving the EU that was my point which you seem to have overlooked.

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4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

UK fatalities up 87 to 422 today.

Big jump and very sad but not as bad as I thought it might be given the trajectory of other countries.

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.

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29 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

 

24 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

What hope have we got ? or are they all macho men the virus wouldn't touch !!!!!!! these people are putting yours and my families life at risk, see references to Germany's figures and I bet this wont be happening there

Perhaps they are all Ukrainians from Chernobyl. Hardly matters then does it. ?

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10 minutes ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

I see these tweets and continue to hope they are fake, and then consider the number of c>nts out there.

 

I see these tweets and continue to hope they are fake, and then consider the number of c>nts out there.

 

Probably more than we get for an average Home match

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56 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

If you do not have an account with the Spectator that link will only let you read so far I believe which is why I copied a lot of it verbatum and just added my thoughts at the end. I should have added the source. 

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2 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

It will tell when the cases over flow the NHS bed capacity. 

What I can't understand is in my experience with my wife and father in law is that even before this outbreak there didn't seem to be enough beds already so we are in trouble from day one.

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28 minutes ago, pillred said:

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

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9 minutes ago, QuedgeRed said:

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

Very true butfortunately we have a different demographic to Italy.

When did Italy bring in their lockdown - I understand that they did it twice as the first time it didn't work ?

Hopefully we don't go down the same route.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

Edited by bcfc01
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6 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Fortunately we have a different demographic to Italy.

When did Italy bring in their lockdown - I understand that they did it twice as the first time it didn't work ?

Hopefully we don't go down the same route.

Didn`t they try and lock down one region (Lombardy?) but news got out and thousands legged it to other parts of the country? Mind you, it seems so long ago now that I could be mistaken.

Edited by Lanterne Rouge
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