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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport/Fans Return (Merged)


Loderingo

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8 minutes ago, S25loyal said:

As long as your ok that’s fine, don’t worry about others.

What a lovely world we live in. 

If that is the case with your theory on November/December why has there only been a surge of deaths across Europe the last couple of months? 

We keep hearing about second spike don’t we?

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8 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Somebody in my office had what was in retrospect classic CV19 with loss of sesne of taste and smell; this was January I think.

She was in all through the three weeks that she would have had it so that would mean everyone in that office got it and then passed it on at home, at football games and then onto schools.

I genuinely expect that the majority of people of working age and below have had it because it was widely circulating well before lockdown.  Maybe 70 - 80%; and the majority of those without feeling particularly unwell.

The people who didn't get it would have been those who weren't having this close daily contact with other people - primarily the elderly and infirm.

 

Whilst this is in the category of "I reckon" a random US sampling of 100 people found that a third had hit.  That's not enough to be statistically significant but I await wider testing with interest as I would say that the much vaunted "herd immunity" was achieved in January - March for the working age population but that there was a second wave amongst a more isolated subsection of the population, the elderly, that took much longer to take off and in that subsection became big news because it was a much more serious infection for them.

The only way to know for sure is testing either testing the entire population and properly quarantining those who test positive and then life can continue as normal or the antibody testing we keep hearing about to see just how many people have already had it 

It does seem like the government are listening to just one team of scientists who are stubbornly insisting coronavirus started in March and lockdown is the only solution (even though the architect of this policy then broke it to invite some woman he was casually seeing to his house) rather than taking into account increasing evidence that it started much earlier and we could already have seen the dreaded second wave 

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13 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Somebody in my office had what was in retrospect classic CV19 with loss of sesne of taste and smell; this was January I think.

She was in all through the three weeks that she would have had it so that would mean everyone in that office got it and then passed it on at home, at football games and then onto schools.

I genuinely expect that the majority of people of working age and below have had it because it was widely circulating well before lockdown.  Maybe 70 - 80%; and the majority of those without feeling particularly unwell.

The people who didn't get it would have been those who weren't having this close daily contact with other people - primarily the elderly and infirm.

 

Whilst this is in the category of "I reckon" a random US sampling of 100 people found that a third had hit.  That's not enough to be statistically significant but I await wider testing with interest as I would say that the much vaunted "herd immunity" was achieved in January - March for the working age population but that there was a second wave amongst a more isolated subsection of the population, the elderly, that took much longer to take off and in that subsection became big news because it was a much more serious infection for them.

My wife and I both had an illness similar to COVID over a year ago (Jan 2019), I was ill for about 3 days then my wife started off the same as me and it turned into pneumonia and she was very ill for weeks and also had other symptoms associated with COVID, I'm hoping we'll get an antibody test at some stage then we'll know more. When they investigate this once it's over I think they'll find it's been around for ages but people would have thought they'd had some sort of flu, maybe it mutated at some stage so it became easier to catch and that's when it got noticed. 

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7 minutes ago, S25loyal said:

Yes, you could be right then. Hopefully you are and this is the second wave if not a lot will die from the stats that’s obvious. 

Despite what it may seem I’m not one for conspiracy theories, i don’t really care if it started in a lab or someone ate undercooked bat and then coughed in someone’s face, but as someone who had all those symptoms at Christmas and ended up in hospital a month later and have since tested negative for coronavirus albeit a couple of months after, lots of what the government are saying doesn’t make sense and it seems like they stubbornly believe one narrative and one narrative only 

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2 minutes ago, walnutroof said:

Despite what it may seem I’m not one for conspiracy theories, i don’t really care if it started in a lab or someone ate undercooked bat and then coughed in someone’s face, but as someone who had all those symptoms at Christmas and ended up in hospital a month later and have since tested negative for coronavirus albeit a couple of months after, lots of what the government are saying doesn’t make sense and it seems like they stubbornly believe one narrative and one narrative only 

I hope you are fully recovered now if it was covid or not, hopefully an antibody test does appear and people do become immune that way longer lasting. 

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31 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

Somebody in my office had what was in retrospect classic CV19 with loss of sesne of taste and smell; this was January I think.

She was in all through the three weeks that she would have had it so that would mean everyone in that office got it and then passed it on at home, at football games and then onto schools.

I genuinely expect that the majority of people of working age and below have had it because it was widely circulating well before lockdown.  Maybe 70 - 80%; and the majority of those without feeling particularly unwell.

The people who didn't get it would have been those who weren't having this close daily contact with other people - primarily the elderly and infirm.

 

Whilst this is in the category of "I reckon" a random US sampling of 100 people found that a third had hit.  That's not enough to be statistically significant but I await wider testing with interest as I would say that the much vaunted "herd immunity" was achieved in January - March for the working age population but that there was a second wave amongst a more isolated subsection of the population, the elderly, that took much longer to take off and in that subsection became big news because it was a much more serious infection for them.

Like many I expect several of us have already had it. A colleague of mine back in February said she had never had ‘Flu’ like it and was prescribed antibiotics for a chest infection. We won’t really know until there is an antibody test, rather than a test for whether or not we have it now. 

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42 minutes ago, S25loyal said:

I hope you are fully recovered now if it was covid or not, hopefully an antibody test does appear and people do become immune that way longer lasting. 

Yeah and as an essential worker have worked throughout the whole thing, have actually been more bemused by the minority thinking they’re on holiday than having to work myself 

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10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Out of interest when Charlton had played 23, had everyone else also played 23....seem to recall Forest having a game to catch up from earlier in the season?

A thought on this a while ago, perhaps rules on fixture lists can be changed so everyone must play everyone by the half way point in the season ie gameweek 23 or 20 for the prem, so in circumstances like this in future the season could be wound back to the half way stage?

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44 minutes ago, walnutroof said:

The only way to know for sure is testing either testing the entire population and properly quarantining those who test positive and then life can continue as normal or the antibody testing we keep hearing about to see just how many people have already had it 

It does seem like the government are listening to just one team of scientists who are stubbornly insisting coronavirus started in March and lockdown is the only solution (even though the architect of this policy then broke it to invite some woman he was casually seeing to his house) rather than taking into account increasing evidence that it started much earlier and we could already have seen the dreaded second wave 

 

42 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

My wife and I both had an illness similar to COVID over a year ago (Jan 2019), I was ill for about 3 days then my wife started off the same as me and it turned into pneumonia and she was very ill for weeks and also had other symptoms associated with COVID, I'm hoping we'll get an antibody test at some stage then we'll know more. When they investigate this once it's over I think they'll find it's been around for ages but people would have thought they'd had some sort of flu, maybe it mutated at some stage so it became easier to catch and that's when it got noticed. 

 

26 minutes ago, E.G.Red said:

Like many I expect several of us have already had it. A colleague of mine back in February said she had never had ‘Flu’ like it and was prescribed antibiotics for a chest infection. We won’t really know until there is an antibody test, rather than a test for whether or not we have it now. 

 

Agree with all of that.  In the absence of a vaccine, and I suspect one may never be achieved despits the timetables given - vaccines are extremely hard things to develop and there are no guarantees - then it comes down to mass testing and immunity certificates.

The big problem is the vulnerable self-isolating groups because if we had a simple return to normal today with their continuing to isolate then there wouldn't IMO be any kind of lift of in deaths because you have to be incredibly unlucky if you're not already in a risk group to die from this.

If you however do that what do you then do about the self-isolating groups because they are being cut off indefinitely with all the mental health problems that will bring?

Personally I would however do that, keep self-isolation for the vulnerable, and pour the money that we're wasting on keeping people idle at home on furlough into coming up with a decent antibody test (i.e. have had CV19 and are immune* rather than have it at present) and have mass testing.

 

* The idea that you can repeatedly catch this stems from false positives in early testing; unless you have a very weak immune system in which case you can repeatedly catch this or, for that matter, anything.

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Saw online they were thinking of working out table PPG but calculated using home average and away average.

Trouble with that is all depend who you have played so far. We have payed the top 4 HandA so will our average be lower than other teams who have not played them.

if you do normal PPG same would apply for averages could be low, high depending on who you have played.

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7 minutes ago, wayne allisons tongues said:

Saw online they were thinking of working out table PPG but calculated using home average and away average.

Trouble with that is all depend who you have played so far. We have payed the top 4 HandA so will our average be lower than other teams who have not played them.

if you do normal PPG same would apply for averages could be low, high depending on who you have played.

Problem is professional statisticians and modelers who could provide a more 'accurate' prediction for the outcome gets dismissed as fantasy and hoodoo and whoever it doesn't benefit complains

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I think the Championship will be given maximum opportunity to justify resumption, on the basis that such a huge windfall is at stake.

The EFL can essentially see what the Premier League lands on and then examine whether that can be replicated in the Champ. If not, PPG would presumably be Plan B.

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10 hours ago, hodge said:

After game week 23 everyone had played the same games, however everyone won't have played everyone. Charlton had played us and I think Derby twice by this stage, so there's potentially teams who have played say Leeds/West Brom/Fulham/Brentford twice but may not have played the bottom 3 at the time, so whats less fair that or having completed 75% of the season. Charlton have a bitter taste in their mouth as it was their loss to Middlesbrough 6 days before the season was postponed that dropped them into the bottom 3 and Middlesbrough climbed out. He's calling it a travesty if they went down, but you hear of teams dropping in only on the last day, or great escapes where teams get out last day. Yes those situations have been played to conclusion but to say 'relegation is wrong as we've only been in there 6 days' seems weak on its own.

That was gonna be my next Q....because our 24th game wasn't Leeds, so I suspect some were out of sequence.

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3 hours ago, formerly known as ivan said:

I was listening to something on this the other day and the feeling was that players OOC wouldn’t risk continuing to play after their contract end date as it would risk injury. Say you are 30 years old and hoping for one last big contract but you break your leg playing in a game on the 10th July. That would be your career pretty much over at a decent level.

The advice to players was walk away (apparently they get a month’s severance pay through to the end of July anyway which I didn’t know was the case) take that months pay and get a new club by August.

Certainly the higher you go, I can see players foregoing a 1 our 2 month deal to wait for the proper window.  Lower down the leagues some might be grateful for a couple of months to keep themselves in the shop window.  Delicate times though.

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40 minutes ago, hodge said:

A thought on this a while ago, perhaps rules on fixture lists can be changed so everyone must play everyone by the half way point in the season ie gameweek 23 or 20 for the prem, so in circumstances like this in future the season could be wound back to the half way stage?

yep, although you'll then have people moaning the 12v11 home v away.  Nightmare

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2 hours ago, walnutroof said:

Oxford University are now estimating that there’s 140,000 people in the uk infected with coronavirus which is 0.24% of the population, it could be that lockdown has brought that number down dramatically although that isn’t really reflected in the governments own data or it’s like how i said at the start that it started in November/December and that millions have already had it 

It would be tragic if it’s the latter people would’ve needlessly lost their livelihoods while cases of mental health issues and domestic violence have rocketed 

Obviously finding those 140,000 is like looking for a needle in a haystack but it does beg the question whether a vaccine is necessary 

Agree a vaccine is necessary. I’m a bit concerned though that people posting they think they had the covet 19 in January are only making things worse. There is no proof of this. I had family visiting us in March and April in OZ and had basic flu symptoms, guess what they had the bloody flu after visiting the doctor.

there are some scaremongers on here that make things worse and not better. Lets please be positive.

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22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

yep, although you'll then have people moaning the 12v11 home v away.  Nightmare

There needs to be a new official last resort cut off though rather than all this discussion of how to end it. If clubs went into a season with that as a stipulation everyone knows the rules and would not probably be the fairest way. Anything under 50% of the season played and it can be null and voided, similar to how cricket matches can be null and voided if x % of a game isn’t played. Yes it’s a comparison of a season to a one off game but we’re hopping taking a once (or twice in one go if it impacts next season) in a generation event so easier to have something in place.

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3 hours ago, daored said:

I think this is going to come down to player power , Villa have already said they will have three players who won’t be able to play due to health issues. 
 

Sterling has come out with concerns about returning (reported he has lost a family member to Covid), Aguero has also said he’s ‘scared’ to return and Danny Rose has spoken out about the return of football. These are the players we know of. 
 

Football bodies won't buy it. Thats what squads are for. 

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4 hours ago, daored said:

I think this is going to come down to player power , Villa have already said they will have three players who won’t be able to play due to health issues. 
 

Sterling has come out with concerns about returning (reported he has lost a family member to Covid), Aguero has also said he’s ‘scared’ to return and Danny Rose has spoken out about the return of football. These are the players we know of. 
 

Just to scrutinise this a bit...

What is Aguero afraid of? He's not only in a low risk demographic, but he has elite level health and fitness. We know his family (inc wife and child) live in Argentina. What are the chances of anything perilous befalling either him or his family?

I think that's a fair question. 

Even Danny Rose... fair enough he might not want to catch the virus off an opponent and then spread it round his household, but not only will players be tested prior to competing, they will also be able to diagnose and treat infection almost immediately. That's VIP treatment that the rest of us won't get. The bricklayers on a construction site are going to be far more at risk. 

Rose also said that numbers need to be down before we think about football. Well that's  the whole point; the numbers are projected to be down in mid June. Hence we're talking about resumption.

I'm sure the concerns of these few players is genuine, but I'm not quite convinced they need to be so worried. The problem for me is more a practicality issue.

I half joked to someone on the weekend that the players questioning whether the season should resume will be the players that wear gloves during games when it's cold. It's a harsh and probably insensitive joke, but I almost expect players to have a careless (perhaps foolish) desire to compete.

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Just a random thought. If the Government say that football can resume behind closed doors from, say, mid-June that will only apply in England. If the Welsh Government (who have been much stricter throughout all this) say it can`t where does that leave Cardiff, Swansea & Newport? Neutral venues for their `home` games?

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46 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Just a random thought. If the Government say that football can resume behind closed doors from, say, mid-June that will only apply in England. If the Welsh Government (who have been much stricter throughout all this) say it can`t where does that leave Cardiff, Swansea & Newport? Neutral venues for their `home` games?

Does Westminster retain the right to overrule devolved government on certain issues?

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1 hour ago, hodge said:

Does Westminster retain the right to overrule devolved government on certain issues?

They keep saying that in matters relating to the pandemic that the devolved Governments have the final say on everything - the relaxed travel restrictions being a case in point where Wales haven`t changed theirs (and have said they won`t be) despite yesterday`s announcements.

I suppose the Heddlu could in theory turn the City bus around on the M4 and send it back to Bristol saying that the team travelling to Swansea to play football did not constitute essential travel under Welsh Government rules!

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2 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

They keep saying that in matters relating to the pandemic that the devolved Governments have the final say on everything - the relaxed travel restrictions being a case in point where Wales haven`t changed theirs (and have said they won`t be) despite yesterday`s announcements.

I suppose the Heddlu could in theory turn the City bus around on the M4 and send it back to Bristol saying that the team travelling to Swansea to play football did not constitute essential travel under Welsh Government rules!

Yeah its another sticky situation, public would cry foul if a football team was given permission to travel into wales to play

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2 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Just a random thought. If the Government say that football can resume behind closed doors from, say, mid-June that will only apply in England. If the Welsh Government (who have been much stricter throughout all this) say it can`t where does that leave Cardiff, Swansea & Newport? Neutral venues for their `home` games?

Just threaten them with relegation that'll sort it. 

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1 minute ago, hodge said:

Yeah its another sticky situation, public would cry foul if a football team was given permission to travel into wales to play

It would be and what about overnight accommodation? It wouldn`t apply to us as we could and probably would travel on the day  but if the opposition were Middlesbrough or Preston say they would expect to stay at a hotel the night before (which is against Welsh rules as they`re supposed to be closed) and if football was seen to be getting special privileges...……….

In fact, the whole overnight thing could well be a problem even in England - all hotels are supposed to be closed to guests. Some have opened to house key workers but that`s all.

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1 minute ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

It would be and what about overnight accommodation? It wouldn`t apply to us as we could and probably would travel on the day  but if the opposition were Middlesbrough or Preston say they would expect to stay at a hotel the night before (which is against Welsh rules as they`re supposed to be closed) and if football was seen to be getting special privileges...……….

In fact, the whole overnight thing could well be a problem even in England - all hotels are supposed to be closed to guests. Some have opened to house key workers but that`s all.

Something I proposed a while ago was opponents with over a certain distance to travel being able to request kick off being moved back to a certain to to allow travel, the FA would deem if the time taken and the travel arranged were reasonable to allow. For us we have to go to Boro and Blackburn, but I expect we would fly private charter (if possible) where possible reducing the time. 

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2 hours ago, mozo said:

Just to scrutinise this a bit...

What is Aguero afraid of? He's not only in a low risk demographic, but he has elite level health and fitness. We know his family (inc wife and child) live in Argentina. What are the chances of anything perilous befalling either him or his family?

I think that's a fair question. 

Even Danny Rose... fair enough he might not want to catch the virus off an opponent and then spread it round his household, but not only will players be tested prior to competing, they will also be able to diagnose and treat infection almost immediately. That's VIP treatment that the rest of us won't get. The bricklayers on a construction site are going to be far more at risk. 

Rose also said that numbers need to be down before we think about football. Well that's  the whole point; the numbers are projected to be down in mid June. Hence we're talking about resumption.

I'm sure the concerns of these few players is genuine, but I'm not quite convinced they need to be so worried. The problem for me is more a practicality issue.

I half joked to someone on the weekend that the players questioning whether the season should resume will be the players that wear gloves during games when it's cold. It's a harsh and probably insensitive joke, but I almost expect players to have a careless (perhaps foolish) desire to compete.

My dislike of Danny Rose started during his "I don't to be here" loan spell with us and continues through his shocking England performances (how many caps?) and everytime he decides to open his mouth basically.  

The likes of him and Rooney really don't get how massively privileged they are as Mozo points out. I have to visit people as part of my job, including the vulnerable and elderly and I am lucky to have been able to get 3 pairs of PPE gloves and 1 mask to last me. The danger to him and the other players will be greater when they are at home rather than when they are away playing football. By all means let them withdraw from playing, but don't pay them at all if they do. 

 

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19 minutes ago, hodge said:

Yeah its another sticky situation, public would cry foul if a football team was given permission to travel into wales to play

NO they wouldn't.  People are still travelling to Wales to work as would the players. 

 

The travel be is intended to stop people trying to go camping on the Gower or mountaineering in the Black Mountains or Snowdonia

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2 minutes ago, The Bard said:

NO they wouldn't.  People are still travelling to Wales to work as would the players. 

 

The travel be is intended to stop people trying to go camping on the Gower or mountaineering in the Black Mountains or Snowdonia

I'm not talking from a practical sense for work, I'm talking about general public (who don't like sport) saying 'why can footballers travel to Wales when I can't go over the border to see my relative/friend...

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