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Loderingo

The Coronavirus and its impact on sport

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The mortality rate in Italy is about 5% so nobody should play down the risks. Even if you don't care because you are young and fit, you don't want to be giving it to your older friends and relatives (or anyone else for that matter).

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2 minutes ago, wendyredredrobin said:

The mortality rate in Italy is about 5% so nobody should play down the risks. Even if you don't care because you are young and fit, you don't want to be giving it to your older friends and relatives (or anyone else for that matter).

I agree fully with the last sentence however it is worth noting that Italy has the oldest population in Europe and the second oldest in the world. That mortality rate doesn’t represent the wider number 

Edited by Bouncearoundtheground
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7 minutes ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

I agree fully with the last sentence however it is worth noting that Italy has the oldest population in Europe and the second oldest in the world. That mortality rate doesn’t represent the wider number 

Yep, something to be said for a diet of pasta, fish, olives tomatos and salad swilled down with a glass of Chianti or two, I think.

Edited by wendyredredrobin
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Average age of those who have died of coronavirus in Italy I believe stands at 81.

About the age that vulnerable people start to die anyway.

I bet I get that gas emoji from the same poster again, but this is a fact.

This will all blow over (oops, not the best phrase)

 

 

Edited by AppyDAZE

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2 minutes ago, AppyDAZE said:

Average age of those who have died of coronavirus in Italy I believe stands at 81.

About the age that vulnerable people start to die anyway.

I bet I get the gas emoji from the same poster again, but this is a fact.

This will all blow over (oops, not the best phrase)

 

 

I assume that you are not 81 then 😀

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3 minutes ago, wendyredredrobin said:

I assume that you are not 81 then 😀

No but i am in the "vulnerable" group we keep hearing about (type 1 diabetes). Everybody has their own way of dealing with this.

Mine is MINE.

Edited by AppyDAZE
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UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.”

Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.”

The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada. The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.”

They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years. The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.”

The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “Its not us”

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33 minutes ago, AppyDAZE said:

Average age of those who have died of coronavirus in Italy I believe stands at 81.

About the age that vulnerable people start to die anyway.

I bet I get that gas emoji from the same poster again, but this is a fact.

This will all blow over (oops, not the best phrase)

 

 

This may be true but a lot of people over 80 having potentially fatal illnesses at the same time puts a huge amount of pressure on hospitals and gp surgeries. Even if you take the human emotion out, the fact is that people like you and I - who have underlying medical conditions but are not at the extreme end of the “at risk” groups - may still find are health negatively impacted by an inability to get medical supplies, hospital appointments or GP appointments. There is medical equipment I am screwed without and GP services and hospitals being overwhelmed could create a lot of dangerous problems.

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7 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

This may be true but a lot of people over 80 having potentially fatal illnesses at the same time puts a huge amount of pressure on hospitals and gp surgeries. Even if you take the human emotion out, the fact is that people like you and I - who have underlying medical conditions but are not at the extreme end of the “at risk” groups - may still find are health negatively impacted by an inability to get medical supplies, hospital appointments or GP appointments. There is medical equipment I am screwed without and GP services and hospitals being overwhelmed could create a lot of dangerous problems.

Which i am totally in agreement with you on.. What i won't do though, is spend a single second WORRYING about it, which a lot of the media seems to be wanting us to do.

Worrying about ANYTHING is the most useless thing a person can do. Be hygienic YES, take measures YES, bang on about it ALL ******* day long NO.

Edited by AppyDAZE
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2 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Some simple Maths lead me to the conclusion that the effect on the health of the UK from Coronavirus will not be anything like as bad as the media suggest.

We can probably all agree that China, where it originated , has been hit the hardest with 80,761 people having contracted the Virus and  3,136 deaths, The virus now seems to be under control in China with only 26 new cases yesterday in a population of 1 billion,400 million people.

  • The % of the Chinese population who  tested positive for Coronavirus is only 0.006 %. This in the worst affected country. 
  • Lets assume  worst case , 1 % of UK  testing positive,. Almost 200 times higher infection rate than  China
  • 1% of the UK 67 million population represents 670,000 people who would get the Virus (currently 321)
  • Assuming current death rate in UK of 1.87%  dying from the virus 
  • Therefore expected deaths in UK from the Coronavirus could be around  12,529. (currently 5)
  • Highly unlikely we would get 4 times as many deaths as China in  a UK  population a fraction of the size
  • Using the Chinese Data ,  the number of UK infections drops to 4,020 and deaths drop to less than 100 !
  • Bear in mind that 616,014 people die every year in the UK,
  • 11,848 UK  deaths every week so you can perhaps see why I believe we are significantly  exaggerating the impact of Coronavirus on the UK . 

The economic damage caused by the panic is in my opinion far more dangerous in the long term to our economy and national prosperity 

implying that china aren't fiddling the numbers, germany are already and thats why there are only 2 deaths currently, they're not counting people dying with pre existing conditions.

 

The economic damage is a mix of China having no one to produce anything at the very beginning, the trade war of sorts between Russia and the Middle East and the correction that was long overdue

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2 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Some simple Maths lead me to the conclusion that the effect on the health of the UK from Coronavirus will not be anything like as bad as the media suggest.

We can probably all agree that China, where it originated , has been hit the hardest with 80,761 people having contracted the Virus and  3,136 deaths, The virus now seems to be under control in China with only 26 new cases yesterday in a population of 1 billion,400 million people.

  • The % of the Chinese population who  tested positive for Coronavirus is only 0.006 %. This in the worst affected country. 
  • Lets assume  worst case , 1 % of UK  testing positive,. Almost 200 times higher infection rate than  China
  • 1% of the UK 67 million population represents 670,000 people who would get the Virus (currently 321)
  • Assuming current death rate in UK of 1.87%  dying from the virus 
  • Therefore expected deaths in UK from the Coronavirus could be around  12,529. (currently 5)
  • Highly unlikely we would get 4 times as many deaths as China in  a UK  population a fraction of the size
  • Using the Chinese Data ,  the number of UK infections drops to 4,020 and deaths drop to less than 100 !
  • Bear in mind that 616,014 people die every year in the UK,
  • 11,848 UK  deaths every week so you can perhaps see why I believe we are significantly  exaggerating the impact of Coronavirus on the UK . 

The economic damage caused by the panic is in my opinion far more dangerous in the long term to our economy and national prosperity 

I think the flaw with your figure for number of infections in China is how enormous China is and how comparatively tiny the UK is. I think a fairer comparison would either be the % of cases in China relative to population v the number of cases in Europe relative to population or the number of cases in Hubei v the Uk . Otherwise it just is not a like for like comparison.

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Do we have any information as to the people in the U.K. who’ve sadly died. 6 now I understand. 
Information such as, how do we think they contracted it? Had they all been to China or Italy or other infected area recently, or had any of their friends or relatives been in such places. 
It would be beneficial, I believe, for the public to know HOW these people contracted it. 
We seem to be lacking any true, useful information. 

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1 hour ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

Would anyone actually want to see city go up on the tele in an empty Wembley?

Who said you need to watch it on the TV?

Image result for hazmat suit football

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1 hour ago, wendyredredrobin said:

I assume that you are not 81 then 😀

What’s upset me most about this whole Corona Virus episode  has been the dismissal of older people and those more vulnerable by lots of younger people. Don’t they have older relatives ? Don’t they know anybody who has diabetes, heart disease, etc ? 
For me it’s really confirmed what I had feared about society , that it’s become selfish in a way that it’s never been before. 

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1 hour ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

Would anyone actually want to see city go up on the tele in an empty Wembley?

If there wasn't any fans, would they bother having it at Wembley?

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3 minutes ago, redapple said:

What’s upset me most about this whole Corona Virus episode  has been the dismissal of older people and those more vulnerable by lots of younger people. Don’t they have older relatives ? Don’t they know anybody who has diabetes, heart disease, etc ? 
For me it’s really confirmed what I had feared about society , that it’s become selfish in a way that it’s never been before. 

It can certainly look that way, but perhaps if there'd been internet when you were a lad (or lass)... people would have said stupid things on online message boards - things they didn't really think about or mean - back then too. Don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing what you're saying, just offering another explanation.

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3 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Some simple Maths lead me to the conclusion that the effect on the health of the UK from Coronavirus will not be anything like as bad as the media suggest.

We can probably all agree that China, where it originated , has been hit the hardest with 80,761 people having contracted the Virus and  3,136 deaths, The virus now seems to be under control in China with only 26 new cases yesterday in a population of 1 billion,400 million people.

  • The % of the Chinese population who  tested positive for Coronavirus is only 0.006 %. This in the worst affected country. 
  • Lets assume  worst case , 1 % of UK  testing positive,. Almost 200 times higher infection rate than  China
  • 1% of the UK 67 million population represents 670,000 people who would get the Virus (currently 321)
  • Assuming current death rate in UK of 1.87%  dying from the virus 
  • Therefore expected deaths in UK from the Coronavirus could be around  12,529. (currently 5)
  • Highly unlikely we would get 4 times as many deaths as China in  a UK  population a fraction of the size
  • Using the Chinese Data ,  the number of UK infections drops to 4,020 and deaths drop to less than 100 !
  • Bear in mind that 616,014 people die every year in the UK,
  • 11,848 UK  deaths every week so you can perhaps see why I believe we are significantly  exaggerating the impact of Coronavirus on the UK . 

The economic damage caused by the panic is in my opinion far more dangerous in the long term to our economy and national prosperity 

While I share your concern about the economic damage, I can’t get behind your simple maths. The problem is they’re too simple, and don’t account for a huge number of variables, and the broadly unpredictable nature of the spread of the virus itself.

A few things off the top of my head:

- The virus in China was predominantly centred around Wuhan, rather than evenly distributed across the country.

- China is geographically huge, and far less densely populated than the UK (365 people per square mile in China, 671 in the UK).

- China took drastic measures, shutting down an entire city. We’ve responded with a few posters on washing your hands.

- Travel patterns in a country are linked to the culture, demographic and wealth of its people; the way people move around China may not be directly comparable to Western Europe.

- The nature of reporting itself has a large margin of error. It’s possible many more died who weren’t reported or whose deaths weren’t attributed to Coronavirus.

I’m sure there are other variables, but these are just a few examples that spring to mind.

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1 minute ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

It can certainly look that way, but perhaps if there'd been internet when you were a lad (or lass)... people would have said stupid things on online message boards - things they didn't really think about or mean - back then too. Don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing what you're saying, just offering another explanation.

I think that’s a fair comment, and it’s not right to generalise about a generation but comments I’ve seen and heard over the last few weeks come across as seriously “I’m alright Jack”. Personally I’m self-employed and worried about the economic impact but I’m more than a little concerned about my elderly relatives as well as my partner whose due surgery next week. 

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11 minutes ago, wendyredredrobin said:

May as well have it at the Mem then.

Oddly, that wouldn't work.

The reason the Fewers are on telly so infrequently (especially at home) is apparently due to their floodlights being as shoddy as the rest of the stadium, so that's more income they are missing out on!

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3 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

Oddly, that wouldn't work.

The reason the Fewers are on telly so infrequently (especially at home) is apparently due to their floodlights being as shoddy as the rest of the stadium, so that's more income they are missing out on!

Just as well, otherwise it would be a tense affair.

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@redapple

First I made an assumption about your age which was wrong - sorry for that!

Second, you may be right that young people are more selfish now, but I think that's really hard to know. And these people may just be reacting carelessly - it's the same point I made above and hardly worth re-saying.

Third, good luck with your partner's operation. My wife had an operation a couple of weeks ago (which went well). I think looking at the rate of change in the number of UK cases, it seems unlikely that the situation by next week is going to be so serious as to affect planned operations. But as I say, good luck.

image.thumb.png.42b33e2abc4533089a5577cd25d3c515.png

 

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One thing that seems to be confusing people on this thread is that Coronavirus is NOT what is killing these people. 

People ARE getting Coronavirus but it is COVID-19 that is killing people there IS a difference 

Coronavirus has been around for decades with many people being infected like now 

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2 hours ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

I agree fully with the last sentence however it is worth noting that Italy has the oldest population in Europe and the second oldest in the world. That mortality rate doesn’t represent the wider number 

As I posted on here yesterday, South Korea have a similar number of cases to Italy, however they’ve tested over 150,000 people (far more than Italy). As a result they’ve found more cases including people who have mild or even no symptoms. This means the case fatality rate in South Korea is far lower (below 0.7%).

Basically, the true number of cases in Italy could well be far higher than what the official figures state, the plus side to this is that the true percentage of deaths due to complications could actually be far lower than the 5% quoted.

 

Edited by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan
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54 minutes ago, redapple said:

What’s upset me most about this whole Corona Virus episode  has been the dismissal of older people and those more vulnerable by lots of younger people. Don’t they have older relatives ? Don’t they know anybody who has diabetes, heart disease, etc ? 
For me it’s really confirmed what I had feared about society , that it’s become selfish in a way that it’s never been before. 

You're a bit late to the party.. this started with Thatcher.

Boris Johnson strolls to victory in the election, and you are surprised that we are living in selfish Britain.  Come on .

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2 minutes ago, AppyDAZE said:

You're a bit late to the party.. this started with Thatcher.

Boris Johnson strolls to victory in the election, and you are surprised that we are living in selfish Britain.  Come on .

Undoubtedly true, but Blair didn’t exactly change society for the better either. 

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50 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

While I share your concern about the economic damage, I can’t get behind your simple maths. The problem is they’re too simple, and don’t account for a huge number of variables, and the broadly unpredictable nature of the spread of the virus itself.

A few things off the top of my head:

- The virus in China was predominantly centred around Wuhan, rather than evenly distributed across the country.

- China is geographically huge, and far less densely populated than the UK (365 people per square mile in China, 671 in the UK).

- China took drastic measures, shutting down an entire city. We’ve responded with a few posters on washing your hands.

- Travel patterns in a country are linked to the culture, demographic and wealth of its people; the way people move around China may not be directly comparable to Western Europe.

- The nature of reporting itself has a large margin of error. It’s possible many more died who weren’t reported or whose deaths weren’t attributed to Coronavirus.

I’m sure there are other variables, but these are just a few examples that spring to mind.

Appreciate your considered response.

However the comments you make about China are exactly why I suggested an infection rate of 1 % for the UK as opposed to 0.006 % identified in China. Cant 'see how we are going to get 4 times the deaths which have occurred in China which is the predicted number using UK  infection of 1% with  1.87 % dying from the virus.

People forecasting 80 % of the  UK population having the Coronavirus are simply scaremongering and causing unnecessary concern and panic. Italy today has 0.02 % of it's population with the virus for example.

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6 hours ago, Port Said Red said:

. That's 5 days where you can be contagious without realising it yourself.

 

I don't think that is right. I have seen that researchers believe you are not contagious until the symptoms show.

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8 minutes ago, Drew Peacock said:

I don't think that is right. I have seen that researchers believe you are not contagious until the symptoms show.

Im not sure thats right

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2 minutes ago, Super said:

Im not sure thats right

Prof Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said the study confirmed that for the vast majority of cases, the incubation and therefore quarantine period for new coronavirus, will be up to 14 days.

And, encouragingly: "There is little if any evidence that people can routinely transmit virus during the asymptomatic period."

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2 hours ago, Harry said:

Do we have any information as to the people in the U.K. who’ve sadly died. 6 now I understand. 
Information such as, how do we think they contracted it? Had they all been to China or Italy or other infected area recently, or had any of their friends or relatives been in such places. 
It would be beneficial, I believe, for the public to know HOW these people contracted it. 
We seem to be lacking any true, useful information. 

Agree. When I was in Singapore recently the media would produce a family tree type illustration, they hadn't had any deaths so it was of everyone who had been tested positive.

You could check out every cluster, most cases came in clusters, like churches, a business convention and a couple of large workplaces. Surprisingly very few if any got it by just going about every day life, like commuting or shopping.

The whole of Singapore was a model of how things should be done a number of experts have said. A bit wierd to get back to Heathrow and not see or speak to a single airport official between the plane and my car. Just an automated passport machine.

 

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1 hour ago, redapple said:

What’s upset me most about this whole Corona Virus episode  has been the dismissal of older people and those more vulnerable by lots of younger people. Don’t they have older relatives ? Don’t they know anybody who has diabetes, heart disease, etc ? 
For me it’s really confirmed what I had feared about society , that it’s become selfish in a way that it’s never been before. 

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

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2 hours ago, Super said:

168 deaths in past 24 hours in Italy.

I think you're right to be concerned. Along with a number of other figures coming out of Italy

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39 minutes ago, phantom said:

One thing that seems to be confusing people on this thread is that Coronavirus is NOT what is killing these people. 

People ARE getting Coronavirus but it is COVID-19 that is killing people there IS a difference 

Coronavirus has been around for decades with many people being infected like now 

I thought Coronavirus is a group of viruses. Generally that causes respiratory tract infections.

COVID-19 is a coronavirus. As is SARS, swine flu and the common cold.

Either way Its actually annoyed me the way the media has kept calling it coronavirus as when the next one comes along lots of people are going to think it's the same one.

The stats on this particular one are worrying.

4 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

It's very sad. And sadly you are right.

Many will only begin to care when it effects them directly, either by a friend/family member becoming I'll or like you say financially.

The impact it could have on the nhs should also not be understated. Thousands more people showing up in need of urgent care to an already underfunded and overstretched service.

 

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5 minutes ago, cider-manc said:

I thought Coronavirus is a group of viruses. Generally that causes respiratory tract infections.

COVID-19 is a coronavirus. As is SARS, swine flu and the common cold.

Either way Its actually annoyed me the way the media has kept calling it coronavirus as when the next one comes along lots of people are going to think it's the same one.

The stats on this particular one are worrying.

It's very sad. And sadly you are right.

Many will only begin to care when it effects them directly, either by a friend/family member becoming I'll or like you say financially.

The impact it could have on the nhs should also not be understated. Thousands more people showing up in need of urgent care to an already underfunded and overstretched service.

 

Yes that's something I'd fully agree with. 

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5 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Perhaps you could expand on your comments. These are all facts.

I won't go into massive detail, but you've ignored several things.

Population demographic, ability to and quality of testing, population density, reliability of data.

There's so many variables.

Listen to experts, not media or your own assumptions.

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16 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

I won't go into massive detail, but you've ignored several things.

Population demographic, ability to and quality of testing, population density, reliability of data.

There's so many variables.

Listen to experts, not media or your own assumptions.

My concern here is our experts appear to know more than the experts in every other first world country. New York about to go into lock down. 

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25 minutes ago, reddoc said:

My concern here is our experts appear to know more than the experts in every other first world country. New York about to go into lock down. 

The US are handling it awfully and will be one of the worst affected countries in my opinion. I'm certainly no fan of Boris Johnson or the Tories but I think we're actually doing the right thing so far.

They're waiting to implement a full lockdown as I understand it at it's a massive step and you can't do it for long - if you do it too early you lose the positive effect of it as after a while people get restless, break it, and it spreads worse than before. It has to be carefully timed to hit around the start of the peak as far as I'm aware, if you're going to do it.

The point isn't to stop new infections which is almost impossible, but to "flatten the curve" to spread infections out over a longer period so the services aren't hit as hard.

 A really interesting article about South Korea: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without their cases have fallen for 5 days straight now. 500 a day for the last 2 weeks, now down to 131. The test more than anywhere else (10k / day) for free in drive-thrus. 200k tests done, 7.5k cases, 54 deaths.

No lockdown as far as I'm aware there, but lots of people on their way in have to register and are monitored, people tested positive are tracked with mobile phone and credit card payment details to warn others who came in contact, masks on people in shops.

From the article:

Quote

Despite these facilities, Kim said it would be difficult for an open society such as South Korea or other OECD countries, to enforce lockdowns as seen in China. This was highlighted when Hong Ik-pyo was forced to resign as the chief spokesman of the ruling Democratic Party after he came under fire over his remarks that Daegu City, the epicentre of the recent outbreak, should be locked down.

Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts.

 

Edited by IAmNick
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1 hour ago, ralphindevon said:

Agree. When I was in Singapore recently the media would produce a family tree type illustration, they hadn't had any deaths so it was of everyone who had been tested positive.

You could check out every cluster, most cases came in clusters, like churches, a business convention and a couple of large workplaces. Surprisingly very few if any got it by just going about every day life, like commuting or shopping.

The whole of Singapore was a model of how things should be done a number of experts have said. A bit wierd to get back to Heathrow and not see or speak to a single airport official between the plane and my car. Just an automated passport machine.

 

Exactly this Ralph. 
I’d have expected information exactly like the family-tree style you refer to. 
Person A has died. They are connected to Person B who tested positive and attended a business conference in London on 25th Feb. Also present at the conference was Person C who tested positive but has now recovered, who had recently returned from Venice on 20th Feb. 
Would be good to get this kind of detail so that the general public could understand that you won’t get this just by walking along the street (or by shopping for toilet roll!) 

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1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I'm in full agreement with you, and I say that as a "younger" person. From the media to the man/woman on the street there seems to be this horrible attitude that old people are simply "expendable" in a pandemic.

Even sadder, the same people that are so dismissive of the older generation will certainly start to care a whole lot more about the virus when the global economy inevitably tanks and they can't afford their mortgage repayments/rent because they can't go to work. 

We are in a new "me" generation, unfortunately. A lot of people don't know the true value of what's really important. 

Strange. I was led to believe that it was only us older folk that were selfish and cared only about themselves. Ummm.

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11 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

The US are handling it awfully and will be one of the worst affected countries in my opinion. I'm certainly no fan of Boris Johnson or the Tories but I think we're actually doing the right thing so far.

They're waiting to implement a full lockdown as I understand it at it's a massive step and you can't do it for long - if you do it too early you lose the positive effect of it as after a while people get restless, break it, and it spreads worse than before. It has to be carefully timed to hit around the start of the peak as far as I'm aware, if you're going to do it.

The point isn't to stop new infections which is almost impossible, but to "flatten the curve" to spread infections out over a longer period so the services aren't hit as hard.

 A really interesting article about South Korea: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without their cases have fallen for 5 days straight now. 500 a day for the last 2 weeks, now down to 131. The test more than anywhere else (10k / day) for free in drive-thrus. 200k tests done, 7.5k cases, 54 deaths.

No lockdown as far as I'm aware there, but lots of people on their way in have to register and are monitored, people tested positive are tracked with mobile phone and credit card payment details to warn others who came in contact, masks on people in shops.

From the article:

 

That's interesting, thanks, although as with all the information we're being given , over a very short period of time. My concern is over a lack of consensus and the fact that we are desperately unprepared for a situation such as Italy finds itself in despite being given a couple of weeks notice. Things are about to get significantly worse and we currently do not seen to have any coherent strategy in place to deal with it. Or maybe I'm just not getting those emails.

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2 hours ago, Marlborough Red said:

Appreciate your considered response.

However the comments you make about China are exactly why I suggested an infection rate of 1 % for the UK as opposed to 0.006 % identified in China. Cant 'see how we are going to get 4 times the deaths which have occurred in China which is the predicted number using UK  infection of 1% with  1.87 % dying from the virus.

People forecasting 80 % of the  UK population having the Coronavirus are simply scaremongering and causing unnecessary concern and panic. Italy today has 0.02 % of it's population with the virus for example.

I agree it seems unlikely we will end up with that many deaths.

However, the “people” you refer to are the UK chief medical officer - and it’s not a forecast as such, it’s a reasonable worst-case scenario and one he said was unlikely.

That’s not “scaremongering”, that’s one of the most qualified medical experts in the country making a statement based on considered analysis.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/80-people-uk-catch-coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-12339867/amp/

Edited by ChippenhamRed
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