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The Coronavirus and its impact on sport


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11 minutes ago, Packman said:

Do people honestly think that nobody is going to test positive, it's bound to happen. We have to either learn to live with it or lock ourselves away for a couple of years and do nothing until a vaccine is found. Doing this will be a lot more damaging however.

Exactly. We're stuck in a half way house at the moment, the two options should be containment or mitigation. The lockdown we have will never achieve containment because its not strict enough and then we are far too tough to be following a mitigation strategy because there is a mentality of 1 case is too one too many still.

 

In the context of football this is going to keep rumbeling on and on and until there becomes an acceptance that there will be cases but we just need to move along taking reasonable precautions then nothing will be able to get started because odd cases will keep popping up.

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3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I guess Bundesliga could push back another week to give them time to complete isolation.

Re Prem League, Steve Parish was on Andrew Marr this morning.  He actually talk sensibly.  He doesn’t say “we must do this”, “we can’t do that”....he just talks about there being options, some of them preferred, some not in his opinion.  Big meeting tomorrow!!!

What are your own thoughts Dave ?          Personally I think they should cancel it. 

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Yesterday literally from nowhere Ferencváros held a training match (team training was allowed from Monday but they trained in small groups on the pitch throughout the whole lockdown, it wasn't forbidden). It wasn't announced and the FA said they won't send referees just for the league games and the bloke in the orange vest definitely doesn't look like a real referee 😆

Anyway I watched the match summary not particularly because of the goals (it ended 4-1) but for seeing how they go into duels, how is man marking, etc. Its interesting because  for me it seems quite moderate and hesitant mentally it will be a long time before they get the same intensity in physical battles as before....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=V4kHMLqDROs&feature=emb_logo

 

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4 minutes ago, Hunsupport said:

Yesterday literally from nowhere Ferencváros held a training match (team training was allowed from Monday but they trained in small groups on the pitch throughout the whole lockdown, it wasn't forbidden). It wasn't announced and the FA said they won't send referees just for the league games and the bloke in the orange vest definitely doesn't look like a real referee 😆

Anyway I watched the match summary not particularly because of the goals (it ended 4-1) but for seeing how they go into duels, how is man marking, etc. Its interesting because  for me it seems quite moderate and hesitant mentally it will be a long time before they get the same intensity in physical battles as before....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=V4kHMLqDROs&feature=emb_logo

 

Hopefully at least,it should end the ridiculous marking at corners. 

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57 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I guess Bundesliga could push back another week to give them time to complete isolation.

Re Prem League, Steve Parish was on Andrew Marr this morning.  He actually talk sensibly.  He doesn’t say “we must do this”, “we can’t do that”....he just talks about there being options, some of them preferred, some not in his opinion.  Big meeting tomorrow!!!

Saw him interviewed last week and he spoke very well then as well. Palace are probably 90% safe though so I guess it’s easier to speak more sensibly from that position. 

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1 hour ago, Packman said:

Do people honestly think that nobody is going to test positive, it's bound to happen. We have to either learn to live with it or lock ourselves away for a couple of years and do nothing until a vaccine is found. Doing this will be a lot more damaging however.

Let's just assume the odd player tests positive. If the teams are all isolating, away from their families, just how much of a risk is this? 

According to the statistician on Marr this morning anyone under 25 has an infinitesimal chance of dying. Something like 1 in 2 million. So why would they be particularly worried about it? As long as you can create a 'bubble' and prevent any contact with outsiders the overwhelming odds are that no-one will get more than a mild illness. 

If the players refuse to take that risk, which should be totally within their rights, then they shouldn't expect to carry on getting paid £millions. Either play or choose not to and don't get paid until you go back to work. 

I guess some managers and staff will be in an older age group and there it all starts to get more complicated. However I don't see how the football fraternity can expect to carry on drawing mega salaries while refusing to do their job. I suspect if you told them they wouldn't be getting more than the furlough scheme limit of £2,500 they'd all be back out on a pitch lickety split. 

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1 hour ago, Vincent Vega said:

What are your own thoughts Dave ?          Personally I think they should cancel it. 

I firmly believe that “null and void” is last resort....75% of the season played.  Plus financially a disaster if broadcasters clawback £millions already advanced.  If it comes to that, football will not be 4 divisions, 91/92 clubs.

Assuming games cannot resume (looking pretty likely imho), then unless there a better / fairer statistical model out there, then home and away adjusted points per game should be used across PL / EFL.  That sorts out final league positions....including relegation spots.

Once that is done, onto the playoff positions.  If no games are possible, then I would give promotion to the team in highest position.

I did think about using head to head between the four playoffs teams, but as they won’t have played each other home and away, that’s gonna be contentious, so as above.

Is it unfair, yes, but nothing is gonna be perfect....but it provides a solution....and it overcomes:

  • 30.06 contract issues (inc loan player issues)...we are getting too close, clubs are already releasing players early
  • how do you get on with next season 

I’m glad it doesn’t bias our own position, which too many fans have built their own solutions on.

In terms of next season, assuming that can kick on in September behind closed doors I’d consider breaking into two (initially)....north and south.  You play the 11 other teams home and away behind closed doors to make sure it’s fair.  By 2021, when hopefully stadiums are open, you then play the other 12 teams home and away, so nobody turns around and says we had to play x at home with no fans, but then had to play them at their place in front of 25k.  I’m sure it’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s a potential concept.

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16 minutes ago, S25loyal said:

When a vaccine is found or we have 0 cases like New Zealand. 

Maybe we shouldn't play until measles cases are down to 0....or not play if there is a bad flu season this winter. Previous record for flu is around 28k deaths in one season. Where do you draw the line on public health priorities. There is a vaccination for both these diseases but that doesn't eliminate any risk. 

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12 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

Maybe we shouldn't play until measles cases are down to 0....or not play if there is a bad flu season this winter. Previous record for flu is around 28k deaths in one season. Where do you draw the line on public health priorities. There is a vaccination for both these diseases but that doesn't eliminate any risk. 

It’s clear that covid risks a lot more than flu does, also like you said there are vaccines for those. 

Measles for example is normally 0 or 1 deaths per a year in the uk. 

Flu kills around 10k a year in the uk, we have hit triple that With covid in a few months with absolutely no clear sign when or how it will end. 

If football starts again without a vaccine and fans attending there will be quite a lot of people who simply won’t go. Someone with it sitting in a stand could infect a load of people. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, S25loyal said:

It’s clear that covid risks a lot more than flu does, also like you said there are vaccines for those. 

Measles for example is normally 0 or 1 deaths per a year in the uk. 

Flu kills around 10k a year in the uk, we have hit triple that With covid in a few months with absolutely no clear sign when or how it will end. 

If football starts again without a vaccine and fans attending there will be quite a lot of people who simply won’t go. Someone with it sitting in a stand could infect a load of people. 

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hit-highest-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/amp/

According to this article there were around 50,000 excess UK deaths in one winter due to flu. That was only a couple of years ago. I agree Covid could be much higher than that if we get this badly wrong but also we need to balance the effect on public health of shutting down the rest of the NHS and a significant financial recession. 

In this context though football really isn't important at all. 

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The government did a very effective job in scaring people in order to keep them at home, unfortunately it’s been so effective that people have been led to believe that they won’t be safe until there’s a vaccine, but it’s worth noting the mortality rate from coronavirus is 0.04% of the population, that’s not much consolation to their families i admit but it’s unrealistic to stop all of life’s activities until a vaccine has been found 

To answer the original question of when football should return, there’s no real right or wrong answer to that but this season is probably a write off as it’s just too complex with too little time to get it up and running again anytime soon

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14 minutes ago, walnutroof said:

The government did a very effective job in scaring people in order to keep them at home, unfortunately it’s been so effective that people have been led to believe that they won’t be safe until there’s a vaccine, but it’s worth noting the mortality rate from coronavirus is 0.04% of the population, that’s not much consolation to their families i admit but it’s unrealistic to stop all of life’s activities until a vaccine has been found 

To answer the original question of when football should return, there’s no real right or wrong answer to that but this season is probably a write off as it’s just too complex with too little time to get it up and running again anytime soon

That’s interesting.

What source are you using for the 0.04% mortality rate of covid-19?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
 

John Hopkins suggests the mortality rate of the virus is far higher.

If you are referring to just the rate per 100k of the population, then any medical professional will tell you that’s not how you judge the threat.

 

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Spain extends the state of emergency as the death toll starts to rise when lockdown was lifted (a little)

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1278489/Spain-coronavirus-latest-state-of-emergency-pedro-sanchez?fbclid=IwAR183BJE1MH1tVuP95ypPSSaZIq06OyAeWv6W5w6uwBCdbqd800G_nqkkmY

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19 minutes ago, 054123 said:

That’s interesting.

What source are you using for the 0.04% mortality rate of covid-19?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
 

John Hopkins suggests the mortality rate of the virus is far higher.

If you are referring to just the rate per 100k of the population, then any medical professional will tell you that’s not how you judge the threat.

 

Is just a basic calculation of the published total death rate which around 35000ish divided by the population which is around 66,500,000 so is nothing particularly scientific 

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11 minutes ago, daored said:

A June restart is now out of the question 

I think you`re right. If there was any chance it would have at least been hinted at tonight with more detail in tomorrow`s document.

I suspect the PL/EFL have already made a decision not to complete the season (not my preference TBF) and have advised the Government accordingly. We`ll hear something around midweek to give the clubs time to get their refund policies in order I imagine.

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29 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

I think you`re right. If there was any chance it would have at least been hinted at tonight with more detail in tomorrow`s document.

I suspect the PL/EFL have already made a decision not to complete the season (not my preference TBF) and have advised the Government accordingly. We`ll hear something around midweek to give the clubs time to get their refund policies in order I imagine.

 If the FA can come up with a plan which is acceptable to the Govt then they will be given the go ahead. Thought this was already general knowledge? I certainly wasn't expecting him to make any further comment on that point tonight. 

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17 hours ago, GlastonburyRed said:

Pubs typically don't tend to attract multi-thousand crowds...

No, Oktoberfest is about as close as it comes!

I thought we had all accepted that football will be behind closed doors for the rest of year minimum?

So the point stands that if a pub can open, with people shoulder to shoulder, from July perhaps, then a bunch of blokes who adhere to social distancing guidelines should be able to play a game of footy.

 

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8 minutes ago, hodge said:

Sport behind closed doors in principle allowed in June....

I'm sure the Premier League will try and finish the season like the Bundesliga and La Liga, but the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 are surely over now. 

Regarding the Bundesliga, La Liga and Premier League it is clear that the players are not going to agree to being in team isolation for the seven weeks required to finish the season. This means that during the time set aside to complete the season, the players and staff will still be living at home and therefore be exposed to the virus through contact in the community. This will almost certainly result in players testing positive for the virus during the season as has already happened at Brighton and Dresden. 

Once a player or member of staff tests positive then that entire club needs to go into self-isolation for two weeks; how does that club then fulfill its fixtures? It can't. What if it comes out of isolation after two weeks only for another player to test positive a few days later? Another two weeks of isolation.

The thought that this could actually work in practice is mad. The chances of any of these three divisions being completed must be tiny. 

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