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Loderingo

The Coronavirus and its impact on sport

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Tbh @wood_red while I won't criticise the Government here, thes things do seem to follow a pattern. Ideally you want to get ahead of the curve.

Yet countries in a lot of cases seem to have followed a similar sequence of events. I see similarities elsewhere with Governments taking decisions too late, or dallying, or hesitating.

I'm not an expert at all but it feels to me that as a country ie a population, as a Government you have to be very quick out of the blocks when faced with this sort of thing. Have we been? Time will tell. I credit them for recent steps and am loathe to criticise, but I still have doubts. 

I look abroad at places far less equipped- Africa, plus in the subcontinent the big 3 of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and think 'Not at all quick enough'. Bits of Latin America too.

Interesting article on the patterns etc. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/01/is-britain-prepared-for-a-possible-coronavirus-pandemic-the-signs-are-not-good

This was written 1st March 2020 or maybe published then so say end of February.

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If I die my wife and my daughters will be sad I trust. 

Apart from that I hopefully once or twice get a mentioning. 

Fine with me.   

Edited by bristolcitysweden
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@Mr PopodopolousMy point is you, or any of us don't know the huge knock on effect of every single decision made (small or big). All countries will have different things in place or not, be more well equipped or not. Just shutting schools 2, 3, 4 weeks ago would have had a massive knock on effect - it may seem like an easy decision now but back then their would be calculated risks for every decision made. 

I said in another post why didn't we just close the borders months ago (simple isn't it)? Stop flights/boats etc even coming in, unless every single person was tested and cleared? The answer is it just wasn't feasible imo, and if it would have happened everyone would be moaning it was way over the top with hardly any cases being reported here.

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51 minutes ago, bristolcitysweden said:

2000 years since Christ. 3 generations per 100 years= 6 000  people and they are all dead. No one has complained. Now we are striked by a slight breeze. I don't give s shit. 

Well that's one person that won't be stockpiling loo paper! 

:D

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2 hours ago, wood_red said:

Some "experts" have indeed, some "experts" haven't. Are you saying then that (take Boris out of it for a moment), that we as a country have poor advisers advising the Government, and all the expert advisers who aren't advising them are in a better position without having all of the facts that contribute to each decision that changes by the hour? The trouble with this virus is so many people have differing opinions (and it is usually people without all the facts, the same as all of us). You can go searching news stories and find people saying schools should have been shut a month ago, and also find people saying they shouldn't be shut now. 

It is just too easy for anyone to find the information they want to hear to suit themselves, and have a dig, and vice versa.

It won't stop though.

Their "experts" are better than our "experts".

Of course they are.....

I'm glad we don't have the experts in some parts of Europe tbh - we'd be in a much worse state than we are at present.

Obviously its going to get worse - but that is to be expected. Some people think they have the solution from behind their keyboard but they don't, they're clueless same as all of us.

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15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quick question for any experts on this. Thinking IIRC @SX227 and @Dr Balls especially appear to know their stuff. 

How does this compare to the Spanish flu- any ideas? 1918-1919 in the main- should we treat it as seriously- as lethal?

Is there any difference to saying: How does this compare to the Black Death?

I believe that comparison is meaningless because the whole understanding of such conditions has changed, healthcare is fundamentally different, housing is different, communication is different, society is different etc.

The similarities are probably:
Invisible
Hard to defend against
It kills people
Transferred by proximity to infected people
Is causing fear, uncertainty, doubt and is leading to people to make irrational decisions
Decision paralysis
Proves to a certain extent that you can't rely on government to protect you
You have to look at what government is telling you and act accordingly. In a democracy, governments will do their best to provide guidance but it really is for individuals to act on it (all this shit looking to blame the current government for acting quickly etc. is about political point scoring and not about addressing the problem)
Etc.

Differences (talking UK):
Society is, supposedly, more educated
Healthcare is improved, universal and free at point of entry
More (on the whole) disposable income
TV, Internet, media outlets
Communication is easier
Vastly improved access to shops
The government safety net.
Socialisation, in the sense that due to more disposable income, we are mixing more
Etc.

What can be said to be a common factor is Globalisation:
Black Death probably happened as a consequence of world trading
Spanish flu came just after WW1 and people returning from conflicts elsewhere in the world
Coronavirus is happening due to the ease of travel
 

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2 minutes ago, bcfcfinker said:

Is there any difference to saying: How does this compare to the Black Death?

I believe that comparison is meaningless because the whole understanding of such conditions has changed, healthcare is fundamentally different, housing is different, communication is different, society is different etc.

The similarities are probably:
Invisible
Hard to defend against
It kills people
Transferred by proximity to infected people
Is causing fear, uncertainty, doubt and is leading to people to make irrational decisions
Decision paralysis
Proves to a certain extent that you can't rely on government to protect you
You have to look at what government is telling you and act accordingly. In a democracy, governments will do their best to provide guidance but it really is for individuals to act on it (all this shit looking to blame the current government for acting quickly etc. is about political point scoring and not about addressing the problem)
Etc.

Differences (talking UK):
Society is, supposedly, more educated
Healthcare is improved, universal and free at point of entry
More (on the whole) disposable income
TV, Internet, media outlets
Communication is easier
Vastly improved access to shops
The government safety net.
Socialisation, in the sense that due to more disposable income, we are mixing more
Etc.

What can be said to be a common factor is Globalisation:
Black Death probably happened as a consequence of world trading
Spanish flu came just after WW1 and people returning from conflicts elsewhere in the world
Coronavirus is happening due to the ease of travel
 

You've done it now!

Expect shops to run out of  Rat Poison now you've mentioned the Black Death in connection with coronavirus.

 

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42 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quick question for any experts on this. Thinking IIRC @SX227 and @Dr Balls especially appear to know their stuff. 

How does this compare to the Spanish flu- any ideas? 1918-1919 in the main- should we treat it as seriously- as lethal?

Spanish flu actually had a bias to killing non-old people.

It was thought for a long time that it was a special type of flu that actually strengthened with a stronger immune system so the younger and helathier you were the more it killed you.

More recent thinking is that was more likely to have a been a variant of a particular strain of flu that had not been seen for a long time - maybe fifty years - so anyone under 50 would not have had the previous version so had no immunity whereas older people may well have caught that previous milder version so still had the antibodies to fight it off.

Whether you regard Coronavirus as worse or better therefore depends upon how old you are!

 

As an interesting aside to this when you have your annual flu jub with the four strains that were selected as being likely for that year not only are you protected from those strains that year but indefinitely.  So if you have been having flu jabs for the last twenty years you now have immunity to eighty strains of flu built up.  Obviously that immunity will slowly weaken over time but if the latter theory is correct for Spanish flu then you have at least fifty years protection from those eighty strains.  The jabs are definitely worth having.

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22 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

It won't stop though.

Their "experts" are better than our "experts".

Of course they are.....

I'm glad we don't have the experts in some parts of Europe tbh - we'd be in a much worse state than we are at present.

Obviously its going to get worse - but that is to be expected. Some people think they have the solution from behind their keyboard but they don't, they're clueless same as all of us.

Who knows which experts are best. I'm not saying I lack confidence in ours but some comparison of how our strategy is significantly superior (in your opinion possibly?) opinion v fact etc, would be illuminating for use rest of us. 

Should we not learn from others errors. For example, Italy- their lockdown of Lombardy leaked out and there was a mass exodus,

I fear the same with London. There's a spike of cases in Wales...would be interesting how much was linked to rich Londoners fleeing.

They also reopened bars in late February, early March for a while.

Both if these were significant errors, pieces of misfortune or both for Italy- we can certainly learn.

I hope the steps taken here have been quick enough.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/rugby/bristol-bears-players-agree-take-3969372

It's unclear though just how much choice they got in this matter. IMO of course. Given it's happening at various clubs I wonder...mentions PRL video conference. 

Contractual law @Bristol Rob ? 

Edited by Mr Popodopolous

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1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

So despite Italy being two weeks ahead of us we learnt nothing in those two weeks and are now tracking them. Great

That is the concern...still too blasé (selfish) imho.  Last night’s pub openings wasn’t a final opportunity for a mass get together, it was just to give those businesses a small window to react.  I’m not gonna mention Tim Martin....arghhh (okay, I just did)!!

I’m sat here with a vulnerable child and as a result we are self-isolating as a family....for 12 weeks.

Why can’t (some) people see the seriousness of this?

[are you RedDave in disguise?]

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5 hours ago, mozo said:

I don't have an issue with the phased approach of the move towards lockdown. But I have felt all along the government were too slow to get started and would have protected more people had they looked at what was going on and acted quickly. There was that pointless business as usual phase.

I agree to an extent, but wish we’d started a week earlier.

Interesting how some people on social media were all:

”eff Coronavirus, I’m still going to Cheltenham, it’s all hysterical media exaggeration”

last week, and now they’ve been impacted by Coronavirus, either the illness itself, or school closures etc etc are now:

“stay indoors, don’t be selfish efftards”

Argghhhh.

.

Edited by Davefevs
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7 hours ago, RedM said:

Yes, of course. I just assumed that was a given. More online slots should be made available and processed quickly. I think people are finding though that there are no slots, or a long wait for one and having to physically shop anyway, and many online orders are missing the vital things people need

I work as a picker in Asda.   Manic now as you would imagine, starting at 4 or 5 in the mornings. don't think it's possible to have any more slots as were picking 20,000 items a day in the store as opposed to a norm of probably 7 or 8,000.   Plus we don't have the vans to cover anymore slots, it's not like you could hire any old van to do the job.

As for keeping the shelves full it's impossible The store opened a 8 this morning to give us a chance, a lot of idiots were waiting outside before six!!!

Once in they had stripped the chilled section of Chicken, Mince and Pork within two hours.

Still feeling pretty protected now as the ****** maniacs come charging in as my  wife ordered me a box of latex gloves😷😮

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https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/marcus-rashford-teams-up-fareshare-21723414

Something good here, which I found when I was searching for news about this charity, which I’ve just started volunteering for one day a week.

Well done Marcus R.

Along with the Gary Neville/Ryan Giggs hotel news it almost makes it difficult to dislike Man United.

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1 hour ago, downendcity said:

You've done it now!

Expect shops to run out of  Rat Poison now you've mentioned the Black Death in connection with coronavirus.

 

If you could get it at Tesco, it would be sold out.

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8 minutes ago, bristolcitysweden said:

if we die we die. No one gives a toss.

Go on with life people. We can't close down society. Pure stupidity..

Is that because you're looking forward to the big IKEA in the sky?!

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17 minutes ago, bristolcitysweden said:

if we die we die. No one gives a toss.

Go on with life people. We can't close down society. Pure stupidity..

What the **** is wrong with you ?????

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22 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@BTRFTG won't be liking this.

Some of his posts in the week have far from aged well.

If you're going to use my name in vain state what it is you suppose I might not like and be explicit as to which aspects of my posts haven't aged well.

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17 minutes ago, mozo said:

Is that because you're looking forward to the big IKEA in the sky?!

You think our Swedish friend is going to Purgatory?

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16 minutes ago, stephenkibby. said:

I work as a picker in Asda.   Manic now as you would imagine, starting at 4 or 5 in the mornings. don't think it's possible to have any more slots as were picking 20,000 items a day in the store as opposed to a norm of probably 7 or 8,000.   Plus we don't have the vans to cover anymore slots, it's not like you could hire any old van to do the job.

As for keeping the shelves full it's impossible The store opened a 8 this morning to give us a chance, a lot of idiots were waiting outside before six!!!

Once in they had stripped the chilled section of Chicken, Mince and Pork within two hours.

Still feeling pretty protected now as the ****** maniacs come charging in as my  wife ordered me a box of latex gloves😷😮

Oh I fully understand, I really do. All the best to you and stay safe. It’s easy to be sucked into the manic world that is food retail right now and exhaust yourself mentally and physically. 

Good point about the availability of the specialised delivery vans, I admit I know little about this service as I have never used it and don’t deal with it.  What’s the earliest/latest slots normally available, maybe these could be extended  an hour or two each end of the day, and have two shifts for drivers? Maybe if most people are off the roads the traffic situation will be much easier, making the runs quicker, so a couple more deliveries could be added each day?

As I said I don’t have the answers but if home delivery is to be relied on going forward it has to be reworked somehow. 

 

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11 minutes ago, lager loud said:

You think our Swedish friend is going to Purgatory?

Have they got toilet rolls in stock at Purgatory?

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14 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Have they got toilet rolls in stock at Purgatory?

Just kitchen roll, but it’ll do in an emergency.

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12 minutes ago, RedM said:

Oh I fully understand, I really do. All the best to you and stay safe. It’s easy to be sucked into the manic world that is food retail right now and exhaust yourself mentally and physically. 

Good point about the availability of the specialised delivery vans, I admit I know little about this service as I have never used it and don’t deal with it.  What’s the earliest/latest slots normally available, maybe these could be extended  an hour or two each end of the day, and have two shifts for drivers? Maybe if most people are off the roads the traffic situation will be much easier, making the runs quicker, so a couple more deliveries could be added each day?

As I said I don’t have the answers but if home delivery is to be relied on going forward it has to be reworked somehow. 

 

The vans go out first at about 08.00 but it takes a while to scan and load all the tote box's of coarse. I think the 2nd shift of drivers are out to 21.30,22.00.

The main problem with getting stuff out much earlier  is that we would have to be picking through the night when all the isles are full of people stacking shelves and pallets everywhere witch makes it slow and difficult to get round.

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I agree to an extent, but wish we’d started a week earlier.

Interesting how some people on social media were all:

”eff Coronavirus, I’m still going to Cheltenham, it’s all hysterical media exaggeration”

last week, and now they’ve been impacted by Coronavirus, either the illness itself, or school closures etc etc are now:

“stay indoors, don’t be selfish efftards”

Argghhhh.

.

Had to take Mrs D to hospital this morning as she has an eye problem.  Went to collect her prescription from nearest Boots, which is in a small shopping area with a Sainsbury and Aldi.

Couldn't believe the number of families ( Mum, Dad and 2 children) out shopping together. Why can't one of the parents get whatever shopping they need and the other stay at home with the children.

I went to Aldi to pick up shopping we need. I tried to keep well away from other shoppers, but it seems that most are oblivious to trying to keep apart. When it came to check out, it didn't matter that I tried to keep a good distance from the person in front of me, the chap behind couldn't get any closer if he tried. The other thing I noticed was that Aldi had tills 1,2,3 & 4 open so it didn't matter if my queue kept 6 feet distance from the shopper in front and behind because  you were still about a foot from the person in the next queue. A bit of common sense by the store would have opened alternate tills to help keep more distance, although common sense is another commodity in short supply at the moment!

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

That is the concern...still too blasé (selfish) imho.  Last night’s pub openings wasn’t a final opportunity for a mass get together, it was just to give those businesses a small window to react.  I’m not gonna mention Tim Martin....arghhh (okay, I just did)!!

I’m sat here with a vulnerable child and as a result we are self-isolating as a family....for 12 weeks.

Why can’t (some) people see the seriousness of this?

[are you RedDave in disguise?]

All the best Dave I take a special needs 15 year old girl to Baytree School in Worle from Draycott. Last week her mother decided to keep her home as she has many underlying problems and we applauded that even though we would lose pay from Somerset CC. Baytree closed Wednesday and since the Government have now closed schools from yesterday, we will be paid while she is off, so the pressure on us financially  has been lifted somewhat but if we didnt get paid I had the option of Pension Credits.

People like yourself have massive respect from me because daily I see children who sadly are disabled and are vulnerable members of society.

Since this problem started getting worse we have witnessed selfish people who should hang their heads in shame because their little worlds have to change for a while ( how upsetting !!)

 

Best of luck mate and see you in 12 weeks at the other end, just as missus and I go to Corfu on hols 🤞

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25 minutes ago, stephenkibby. said:

The vans go out first at about 08.00 but it takes a while to scan and load all the tote box's of coarse. I think the 2nd shift of drivers are out to 21.30,22.00.

The main problem with getting stuff out much earlier  is that we would have to be picking through the night when all the isles are full of people stacking shelves and pallets everywhere witch makes it slow and difficult to get round.

Don’t think my plan will work then 😦 

Also it’s the least of the concerns at this time but there is always someone who would complain about any additional noise made  out of normal hours.

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Death count

In January there was an increase of over 2900 deaths compared to jan 2019. 
9000 more deaths than December 

56000 deaths in January in total

 

looks like coronavirus has already claimed a few thousand in jan. I know there was no recorded cases but I don’t think there was testing was there?

So if the curve of deaths follow Italy and we lose 4000 in a month, there would be a lift of 8% on presumption that none of the 4000 would have died anyway


not sure what to feel about these figures. Your Thoughts?

 

2A1B7F45-2211-4D64-B82D-D57DE40B8DF3.jpeg

Edited by gl1

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17 minutes ago, gl1 said:

Death count

In January there was an increase of over 2900 deaths compared to jan 2019. 
9000 more deaths than December 

56000 deaths in January in total

 

looks like coronavirus has already claimed a few thousand in jan. I know there was no recorded cases but I don’t think there was testing was there?

So if the curve of deaths follow Italy and we lose 4000 in a month, there would be a lift of 8% on presumption that none of the 4000 would have died anyway


not sure what to feel about these figures. Your Thoughts?

 

2A1B7F45-2211-4D64-B82D-D57DE40B8DF3.jpeg

It is interesting but I’d want to know how much that figure fluctuates from year to year. If it is higher than 2019 but comparable to previous years then it may mean nothing but if January 2020 was significantly higher than other recent years then it could be significant.

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5 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

And UK still isn’t testing....incredibly people happy with BJ and gang 

Stop talking political bollocks. It’s so tiresome. They’re doing all they can and no different to what any other party could do in their position.

Can we leave out the politics? Had ******* 3 years of it...

Edited by Lew-T
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Italy will have been in lockdown for 2 weeks on Monday, it'll probably be another few days before the effects of that are reflected in the number of deaths.

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8 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

And UK still isn’t testing....incredibly people happy with BJ and gang 

Last time I looked we were the 4th highest testing country in the World. We are also ramping up our testing and developing an antibody test to show who has already recovered.

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6 minutes ago, Lew-T said:

Stop talking political bollocks. It’s so tiresome. They’re doing all they can and no different to what any other party could do in their position.

Can we leave out the politics? Had ******* 3 years of it...

If they were doing all they can then I wouldn’t mention it would i.  More testing please Boris and gang. Unless they want people to get it I guess 

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6 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

And UK still isn’t testing....incredibly people happy with BJ and gang 

Do we have enough kits to test everyone?

If not, where do we get them all from?

Do you want us to test every person within the UK?

If so when, where and how many staff are required to test everyone safely?

I have had a bad cough for a week, but no temperature, so I may well have it but with milder symptoms - where would I go in the queue for testing? Is it safe for me to go and get tested? 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, gl1 said:

Death count

In January there was an increase of over 2900 deaths compared to jan 2019. 
9000 more deaths than December 

56000 deaths in January in total

 

looks like coronavirus has already claimed a few thousand in jan. I know there was no recorded cases but I don’t think there was testing was there?

So if the curve of deaths follow Italy and we lose 4000 in a month, there would be a lift of 8% on presumption that none of the 4000 would have died anyway


not sure what to feel about these figures. Your Thoughts?

 

2A1B7F45-2211-4D64-B82D-D57DE40B8DF3.jpeg


From Coffee House @ The Spectator
By Ross Clark
Could measures we’ve taken to stop Covid-19 already be saving lives?
20 March 2020, 12:15am
Text
Comments

Perspective is a bit in short supply at the moment but if you want a brief respite from the onslaught of bad news, take a look at these statistics. They are Office for National Statistics figures for the total numbers of deaths from respiratory diseases in England and Wales for February this year, compared with last year.

2019    2020
7 February    1,918    1,572 (-346)
14 February    1,931    1,586 (-345)
21 February    1,890    1,587 (-303)
28 February    1,786    1,517 (-269)

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