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Loderingo

The Coronavirus and its impact on sport

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One interesting question I would pose from those stats is that perhaps in 'normal' times a bit more self distancing of flu sufferers could save a few hundred lives a year. It will be interesting to see if we come out of this and maintain some more sensible habits.

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6 minutes ago, pillred said:

Death toll up 53 today to a total of 233.

Exactly the same number as Italy 14 days ago. 2 days later they went into full lockdown.

Edited by Northern Red
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1 minute ago, pillred said:

Death toll up 53 today to a total of 233.

As a percentage of total fatalities, that is quite a jump.

Would imagine it'll be at least 3 weeks before we see any trends forming following the closure of restaurants and pubs.

I hope it does inspire a trend, as this is likely to give people some confidence that the measures are working.

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14 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

Last time I looked we were the 4th highest testing country in the World. We are also ramping up our testing and developing an antibody test to show who has already recovered.

Jesus Christ, man: don’t use facts to back up your argument. Be like the majority: uninformed bigoted armchair scientists. 

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4 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

So despite Italy being two weeks ahead of us we learnt nothing in those two weeks and are now tracking them. Great

Could be worse I suppose. Trump and his cronies had an even slower response to this and as a result the US infection rate per capita has just overtaken ours. Worried about my family out there.

3 hours ago, Eddie Hitler said:

As an interesting aside to this when you have your annual flu jub with the four strains that were selected as being likely for that year not only are you protected from those strains that year but indefinitely.  So if you have been having flu jabs for the last twenty years you now have immunity to eighty strains of flu built up.  Obviously that immunity will slowly weaken over time but if the latter theory is correct for Spanish flu then you have at least fifty years protection from those eighty strains.  The jabs are definitely worth having.

Thanks for this info, Ed. I genuinely didn't know this - and have been turning down flu jabs for years. Will take it next time it's offered.

 

On another point, the panic buyers are still at it and silly things are scarce now. Fresh veg, eggs, meat - even bloody pickles.  Supermarkets I've been to are permanently rammed and the shortages mean you often have to go to more than one to get basics. Meaning you probably encounter about 1000 times the number of potentially infected people than if the pubs were still open. I wonder if it's time to start scoping bringing back ration books?

This is a war. Just against an invisible enemy.

Edited by Red-Robbo
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17 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

And UK still isn’t testing....incredibly people happy with BJ and gang 

 

7 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

If they were doing all they can then I wouldn’t mention it would i.  More testing please Boris and gang. Unless they want people to get it I guess 

What happened in the 10mins between these 2 posts; first we arent testing then you are asking for more testing; which means we are testing but not enough? is that what you meant to say?

did you listen to the last Boris broadcast when he/the panel clearly answered the question of testing...several times🤔

So many seem to know the right thing to do, hows that then? been here before ?

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3 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

As a percentage of total fatalities, that is quite a jump.

Would imagine it'll be at least 3 weeks before we see any trends forming following the closure of restaurants and pubs.

I hope it does inspire a trend, as this is likely to give people some confidence that the measures are working.

We are exactly the same as Italy in stats and also in the public’s relaxed attitude to isolation and social distancing. Italian people now talk of regret in their early actions. The UK People are copying those early actions 

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2 minutes ago, pillred said:

It was a news flash 5 minutes ago.

 

2 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

That's without the figures from England.

Fair play chaps. It's moving all the time.

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2 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

Could be worse I suppose. Trump and his cronies had an even slower response to this and as a result the US infection rate per capita has just overtaken ours. Worried about my family out there.

Thanks for this info, Ed. I genuinely didn't know this - and have been turning down flu jabs for years. Will take it next time it's offered.

 

On another point, the panic buyers are still at it and silly things are scarce now. Fresh veg, eggs, meat - even bloody pickles.  Supermarkets I've been too are permanently rammed and the shortages mean you often have to go to more than one to get basics. Meaning you probably encounter about 1000 times the number of potentially infected people than if the pubs were still open. I wonder if it's time to start scoping bringing back ration books?

This is a war. Just against an invisible enemy.

Army will be out soon you can guarantee it. People are just not listening. They need it imposed on them if the cannot act sensibly 

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22 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

It is interesting but I’d want to know how much that figure fluctuates from year to year. If it is higher than 2019 but comparable to previous years then it may mean nothing but if January 2020 was significantly higher than other recent years then it could be significant.

I’m not an expert but a quick search brings back figures of around 600,000 deaths per year. Winter months around 45000 to 60000 deaths per month, falling to mid to high 30,000’s in the summer months. Looking back at last decade January deaths are anywhere between 45,000 and 60,000, this year was a spike though. But Is does go up and the last winter flu epidemic looks like it claimed 10,000 ish 

 

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2 minutes ago, TRL said:

Army will be out soon you can guarantee it. People are just not listening. They need it imposed on them if the cannot act sensibly 

Good. Drove down Gloucester Road today. Packed 

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2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

We are exactly the same as Italy in stats and also in the public’s relaxed attitude to isolation and social distancing. Italian people now talk of regret in their early actions. The UK People are copying those early actions 

Germany's stats hugely stand out. 4 times the cases of the UK with about 40% of the deaths. 

I think these stats are going to be all over the place until we are well past it because the testing is at different points of the graph.

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1 minute ago, havanatopia said:

 

Fair play chaps. It's moving all the time.

Yeah, the 4 countries of the UK annouce their figures separately, with England usually last.

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22 minutes ago, Lew-T said:

They’re doing all they can

No they are not, and they haven't been.  That's why people are complaining. The standard of leadership from the top has been pathetic, and unsurprising considering Bozo's record in public office. Don't be naive.

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Defeating Coronavirus will be a marathon not a sprint. Comparing Italy two weeks ago with UK is nonsense and shows people up to be narrow minded bigots whose only interest is to take a dig at the government in a time of national emergency. This country is full of point scoring show ponies. When at ‘war’ you have to acknowledge that you will lose some battles. But winning the war is what it’s all about. 

Edited by DSTAF
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1 minute ago, And Its Smith said:

Good. Drove down Gloucester Road today. Packed 

Agreed. I'd go so far as to say seizure of bought goods if it gets too stupid. 

 

People just don't seem to be getting it. I just really wonder how ******* thick some people are in this country.

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6 minutes ago, gl1 said:

I’m not an expert but a quick search brings back figures of around 600,000 deaths per year. Winter months around 45000 to 60000 deaths per month, falling to mid to high 30,000’s in the summer months. Looking back at last decade January deaths are anywhere between 45,000 and 60,000, this year was a spike though. But Is does go up and the last winter flu epidemic looks like it claimed 10,000 ish 

 

World numbers range from 300k to 600k.

4 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

No they are not, and they haven't been.  That's why people are complaining. The standard of leadership from the top has been pathetic, and unsurprising considering Bozo's record in public office. Don't be naive.

Keeping the red flag flying I see. 

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3 minutes ago, TRL said:

Agreed. I'd go so far as to say seizure of bought goods if it gets too stupid. 

 

People just don't seem to be getting it. I just really wonder how ******* thick some people are in this country.

Correlation of the people not getting it and people who voted Brexit must be quite high I’d say 

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2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Correlation of the people not getting it and people who voted Brexit must be quite high I’d say 

I doubt it. I would think either side of that divide are equally as thick all for their own selfish reasons.

Selfishness is the common denominator not political leanings from my experience 

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Just now, Roger Red Hat said:

Maybe something to do with his lamentable response to it?

Lamentable in your opinion. Not in mine. There is no modern precedent for tackling a crises such as this, and I'm happy with the government's performance so far. 

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3 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

Maybe something to do with his lamentable response to it?

I presume you think the performance of the Chief Medical and Chief Scientist are lamentable too?  As that's where Boris is getting his advice from.

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3 minutes ago, cityloyal473 said:

I presume you think the performance of the Chief Medical and Chief Scientist are lamentable too?  As that's where Boris is getting his advice from.

That is who he has been arguing with you mean 

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Mrs LR popped out to Tesco`s in Launceston this morning and managed to get everything she wanted - mince, cheese, sausages, fresh veg and even some rice ( she only got one of everything, not twenty!). It was all stuff we would have bought every week normally.

I really think the limit on purchases is working PROVIDED it`s being enforced. I also think in smaller towns with only one supermarket there`s an element of `I know what you did` where people acting like selfish idiots can easily be spotted by folks that know them and they`re shamed into acting a bit more considerately.

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7 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

That is who he has been arguing with you mean 

You are coming across like a bit of dick in this m8, let it go . The government is acting on the scientific advice what the **** else are they meant to do. They're politicians and they genuinely don't want people to die. Vote Labour in 4 years if it makes you feel better.

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6 minutes ago, cityloyal473 said:

I presume you think the performance of the Chief Medical and Chief Scientist are lamentable too?  As that's where Boris is getting his advice from.

 

To be fair, a number of other eminent virologists and pandemic experts had criticised the UK's approach - including the Editor of The Lancet, and the World Health Organisation.

And to be even more fair to Chris Witty and Patrick Vallence, we don't know for sure that government policy was shaped 100% by their advice, or if they deliberately delayed the more draconian measures because they thought it would damage the economy too much.

There are a lot of things we'll only know after all this blows over. My criticism is muted until then.

But I think we can safely say that most people - B Johnson included - didn't take it really seriously until it was too late. The virus was here and circulating when Bongo told everyone he had shaken hands with everyone in a hospital which housed Covid-19 sufferers. Of course, like most things he claims, he hadn't actually done that, but it was a daft thing to say nonetheless and shows our early complacency.

 

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4 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

You are coming across like a bit of dick in this m8, let it go . The government is acting on the scientific advice what the **** else are they meant to do. They're politicians and they genuinely don't want people to die. Vote Labour in 4 years if it makes you feel better.

You’re coming across as naive 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

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25 minutes ago, DSTAF said:

Defeating Coronavirus will be a marathon not a sprint. Comparing Italy two weeks ago with UK is nonsense and shows people up to be narrow minded bigots whose only interest is to take a dig at the government in a time of national emergency. This country is full of point scoring show ponies. When at ‘war’ you have to acknowledge that you will lose some battles. But winning the war is what it’s all about. 


It’s likely to be a repeat of WWI. Incompetent ruling class get hundreds of thousands needlessly killed but all is forgotten because we “commemorate” the fallen every year for winning the war. 

 

19 minutes ago, cityloyal473 said:

I presume you think the performance of the Chief Medical and Chief Scientist are lamentable too?  As that's where Boris is getting his advice from.

The Chief Scientific adviser has ****** up and will also be accountable for his lamentable actions. The advice and decision for heard immunity won’t go away considering they thought it was a good decision to just let everyone get infected only a week ago. There’s no way around that fatal mistake.

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6 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

To be fair, a number of other eminent virologists and pandemic experts had criticised the UK's approach - including the Editor of The Lancet, and the World Health Organisation.

And to be even more fair to Chris Witty and Patrick Vallence, we don't know for sure that government policy was shaped 100% by their advice, or if they deliberately delayed the more draconian measures because they thought it would damage the economy too much.

There are a lot of things we'll only know after all this blows over. My criticism is muted until then.

But I think we can safely say that most people - B Johnson included - didn't take it really seriously until it was too late. The virus was here and circulating when Bongo told everyone he had shaken hands with everyone in a hospital which housed Covid-19 sufferers. Of course, like most things he claims, he hadn't actually done that, but it was a daft thing to say nonetheless and shows our early complacency.

 

How much experience in dealing with the Coronavirus do the editor of the Lancet and the WHO have?  I’ll tell you how much: the same as every other swinging dick out there. 
 

The response by the government to COVID can only really be judged when this has finished. 

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10 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Mrs LR popped out to Tesco`s in Launceston this morning and managed to get everything she wanted - mince, cheese, sausages, fresh veg and even some rice ( she only got one of everything, not twenty!). It was all stuff we would have bought every week normally.

I really think the limit on purchases is working PROVIDED it`s being enforced. I also think in smaller towns with only one supermarket there`s an element of `I know what you did` where people acting like selfish idiots can easily be spotted by folks that know them and they`re shamed into acting a bit more considerately.

It also depends on timing.

I was lucky enough today to arrive at the co-op as they had a delivery.

Got everything we needed, chicken, mince, tomatoes, bog roll, kitchen roll - one of everything was plenty enough for us as we have a regular home delivery of basics tomorrow anyway.

Lady got stuff taken off her in the queue, not sure what but they told her others need it as well.

Aldi, Lidl, Co-op, all seemed fine - didn't bother with Asda and won't be bothering any more with that place, and I'm leaning towards not going there again after this is all over. Too many selfish idiots allowed to get away with stripping the shelves. The smaller outlets seem fine and I think we'll be using them in future.

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3 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

That's it then , best have an election. 

If you think that Johnson goes up to the scientists and says “what is our policy then?’ And they tell him what’s best and he says “okay, thanks. We will do that then”, you are woefully naive.  

2 minutes ago, DSTAF said:

How much experience in dealing with the Coronavirus do the editor of the Lancet and the WHO have?  I’ll tell you how much: the same as every other swinging dick out there. 
 

The response by the government to COVID can only really be judged when this has finished. 

Or you can say we are on course to repeat Italy despite having two weeks on them!!

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5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Quick question for any experts on this. Thinking IIRC @SX227 and @Dr Balls especially appear to know their stuff. 

How does this compare to the Spanish flu- any ideas? 1918-1919 in the main- should we treat it as seriously- as lethal?

Comparisons are a bit irrelevant. That said this is the the biggest since then and ultimately will be bigger than 1918. It’s what we have been fearing for some time. My quick calculation a couple of weeks back was at least 60 million deaths worldwide by the end of this, so we are only really at the very beginning. The estimates for the UK vary but 250,000 dead over a year or so is at the lower end. If 80% of the population catch it and 1% die that’s roughly 450,000 dead.

There are no clear game changers on the near horizon. Antiviral drugs are months away at best and a vaccine even further than that. The important thing is to limit the numbers ill at any one time to stop the health service being overwhelmed, otherwise the number of deaths will be even greater.

Since Wednesday, I have been out as little as possible. I have been at home or walked the 5 mins to work and back again that’s it. I must be washing my hands 20+ times per day even on non-clinical days, plus alcohol gel in between. As soon as I get in the house, I wash my hands.

Today I had to go to the shops for essentials but even though a few other people were trying to keep an appropriate distance, I was amazed how few were. And there were a lot of people out on the Downs, although to be fair most were in separate family groups. I know it’s going to be hard to keep kids inside on sunny days, but if you have a garden keep to that. My garden will hopefully be looking fantastic this summer, plus I am hoping to grow some vegetables in case things get really tough!

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48 minutes ago, pillred said:

Death toll up 53 today to a total of 233.

Its too many but I expected a hell of a lot more given the pattern of this bastard.

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3 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

If you think that Johnson goes up to the scientists and says “what is our policy then?’ And they tell him what’s best and he says “okay, thanks. We will do that then”, you are woefully naive.  

Or you can say we are on course to repeat Italy despite having two weeks on them!!

I'll stand by my original comment. 

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1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

And UK still isn’t testing....incredibly people happy with BJ and gang 

Do we have enough kits to test everyone?

If not, where do we get them all from?

Do you want us to test every person within the UK?

If so when, where and how many staff are required to test everyone safely?

I have had a bad cough for a week, but no temperature, so I may well have it but with milder symptoms - where would I go in the queue for testing? Is it safe for me to go and get tested? 

 

Any chance of a reply to these questions @And Its Smith

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2 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Its too many but I expected a hell of a lot more given the pattern of this bastard.

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic but unless things get much much worse I can't see the final death toll being anywhere the figure some of the more excitable posters on here are proposing, figures of tens even hundreds of thousands being bandied about.

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Was out earlier doing some shopping (normal not panic). 

Was surprised to see people not socially distancing correctly. In a supermarket it's difficult to do so when others are not in somewhere like a supermarket though.

Found what was looking for eventually but had to shop around. 

More generally, people walking down road together, holding hands in various cases- I fear the message is not getting through to as many as it should.

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4 minutes ago, pillred said:

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic but unless things get much much worse I can't see the final death toll being anywhere the figure some of the more excitable posters on here are proposing, figures of tens even hundreds of thousands being bandied about.

Ignore it.

Hundreds of thousands is total bollux.

Here they come........

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2 minutes ago, pillred said:

even hundreds of thousands being bandied about.

The figure (250,000, I believe) in the modelling that scared Bozo and his cabal to change tack on their 'do very little' approach, when they tried to claim the science had changed! It hadn't.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Was out earlier doing some shopping (normal not panic). 

Was surprised to see people not socially distancing correctly. In a supermarket it's difficult to do so when others are not in somewhere like a supermarket though.

Found what was looking for eventually but had to shop around. 

More generally, people walking down road together, holding hands in various cases- I fear the message is not getting through to as many as it should.

If you have a partner, it seems to me quite natural for people to hold hands - why the hell not ?

 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

The figure (250,000, I believe) in the modelling that scared Bozo and his cabal to change tack on their 'do very little' approach, when they tried to claim the science had changed! It hadn't.

No.

Once again, his advisors (Chief medic and Vallance) said its possible that 20k-50k could die and anything under 20k would be a result.

They have never mentioned 250k.

That is someone else.

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1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

If they were doing all they can then I wouldn’t mention it would i.  More testing please Boris and gang. Unless they want people to get it I guess 

I suspect there are many of us on here who wouldn’t mind knowing whether the illness we had over Xmas / New Year was Coronavirus, so we can keep our family, friends and work colleagues safe.  I know that isn’t possible at the mo’, but testing should be high up the priority list.

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