Jump to content

Welcome to One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums

Welcome to One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums, like most online communities you must register to view or post in our community, but don't worry this is a simple free process that requires minimal information for you to signup. Be a part of One Team in Bristol - Bristol City Forums by signing in or creating an account.

  • Start new topics and reply to others
  • Full access to all forums (not all viewable as guest)
  • Subscribe to topics and forums to get email updates
  • Get your own profile page and make new friends
  • Send personal messages to other members.
  • Support OTIB with a premium membership

Loderingo

The Coronavirus and its impact on sport

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, havanatopia said:

Here is the background to your question:-

the latest figures from the Robert Koch Institute show that the country has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.3 per cent, while the World Health Organisation (WHO) figures from Italy seem to show a CFR of 9 per cent? To say there is a vast gulf between those figures is an understatement. If nine per cent of people who catch Covid-19 are going to die from it we are facing a calamity beyond parallel in the modern world. If only 0.3 per cent of people who catch it die from it, this pandemic may yet turn out to be no worse than seasonal flu which it is estimated, by the US Centers for Disease Control, to kill between 291,000 and 646,000 people a year without the world really noticing. According to John Hopkins University, which is collating fatalities data, 15,308 have died to date.

and the probable reason...

So which is closer to the real situation, Italy’s experience or Germany’s? Various theories have been put forward for Germany’s low death rate: for example that many of those who have tested positive for Covid-19 are young people who had returned from skiing holidays in Italy. The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy. Some have expressed the fear that young German skiers will slowly infect their parents and grandparents’ generation, and that the death rate will steadily rise as the disease works its way through more vulnerable elderly people.

Germany is almost certainly behind Italy in this epidemic. But the main difference between Germany and Italy lies in those countries’ respective attitudes towards testing. Germany has carried out far more enthusiastic testing of the general population – there does not seem to be a central figure for this, but the German Doctors’ Association has estimated that 200,000 people across the country have been tested. In Britain, it is 64,000 people. On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.

This matters hugely to the Case Fatality Rate for each country. CFR is not to be confused with the genuine Mortality Rate. The former is simply the number of deaths divided by the number of recorded cases. The latter is the number of deaths divided by the actual number of people who have been infected by the disease. Trouble is, nobody knows the latter figure because no country has tested its entire population to see who has or has had the disease. What we do know is that large numbers of people who have been confirmed as having the disease only have mild symptoms – 45 per cent according to Italy’s National Institute for Health. One in 10 have no symptoms at all. There must be many others who have been infected but haven’t been tested and therefore who do now show up as confirmed cases.

It stands to reason that the more people who are tested, the more accurate a picture we will have of the mortality rate, the transmission rate and other metrics which will determine the eventual path of this pandemic. To underline the uncertainties behind the data from which policy is currently being made, the Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the other day estimated the number of people in Britain who already have or have had Covid-19 at between 6,000 and 23 million. That is a pretty broad spread with hugely different implications. If only 6,000 have the disease in Britain, socially-distancing the population or locking down society might have a purpose. If 23 million have the disease, it is pointless – it already has ripped its way through the population but without killing more than a tiny percentage.

What we really need is a huge effort to test a large randomised sample of the population to see how widespread the infection is. Hopefully, that will soon happen. But in the meantime, I am minded to think that the more accurate picture of Covid-19 comes from the country which has conducted the most tests: Germany.

In summary, and what I have said from early on, the ultimate death rate will be no more than 0.5% of those who contract it or, in the case of current data from Germany, even less. Still a ways to go but all the data, reliably being gathered, is pointing toward that. Flu, remember, is about 0.1%. The burning question then will be has it been worth it trashing the world's economies. The answer will probably be 'did we have any choice' ? But that will leave us with a thousand lessons to learn, worldwide, and hopefully next time, because there will for sure be others, the whole world will not need to shut down.

 

Interesting, have you got a link to this please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

As I told a client once, after dealing with a support case, "there's no such thing as a stupid question, just stupid people who ask them."

I always used to say to my staff :

There are no stupid questions. Just inquisitive idiots. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Ta, I'm supposed to be working, so trying not to read every post......  might have to take the forum offline during office hours 😀

toilet rolls.png

  • Haha 9
  • Flames 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wayne allisons tongues said:

There death figures don’t include Post Mortem results. 
If they say your in for a heart problem and die they don’t check for Covid 19.

Other countries do test, which is why figures around the world are so confusing/don’t make sense.

I wonder when or if,  they will start including deaths indirectly caused by the virus. People are still having heart attacks, strokes and serious car accidents etc, and if the resources arent available to save them, when they otherwise probably would be, thats a CV related death surely. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ska Junkie said:

Dear god above. What a moronic woman.

I'm genuinely staggered by that. 

What a f*ckwit.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Following brexit me and Mrs F refuse to go to Spoons.....I hope a lot more people do the same now.

A bit petty in my opinion, just because you didn't get your way in the vote, I like to think if the vote had gone the other way I would not have been so childish. I admit the bloke can be a bit abrasive but to refuse to use a pub just because his political opinion is different to yours is a bit daft, you would have to boycott half the businesses in the country if that was the case.

Edited by pillred
Add comment
  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, pillred said:

A bit petty in my opinion, just because you didn't get your way in the vote, I like to think if the vote had gone the other way I would not have been so childish.

What the hell  is that got to do with the Brexit Vote, he is ****ng his staff about, the same staff that make him money, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

What hope have we got 🤔 or are they all macho men the virus wouldn't touch !!!!!!! these people are putting yours and my families life at risk, see references to Germany's figures and I bet this wont be happening there

Edited by oldstandrobin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

What the hell  is that got to do with the Brexit Vote, he is ****ng his staff about, the same staff that make him money, 

Read the effin post properly, he said he boycotted spoons because of Brexit not for what he has recently done that's what it's got to do with Brexit he had already boycotted the place before this, if you had read what he said you would have realised that.

Edited by pillred
Add comment
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, pillred said:

Read the effin post properly, he said he boycotted spoons because of the Brexit vote not for what he has recently done that's what it's got to do with Brexit he had already boycotted the place before this if you had read what he said you would have realised that.

Sorry your lordship, forelock tugging you are obviously getting stir crazy already pal, try and calm down if yo

u dont like others opinions

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, oldstandrobin said:

Sorry your lordship, forelock tugging you are obviously getting stir crazy already pal, try and calm down if yo

u dont like others opinions

I think the phrase pots and kettles comes to mind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, pillred said:

I think the phrase pots and kettles comes to mind.

What pub did you run, I was a publican for 10 years and the bloke is a tw*t, dont accuse me of calling pot and kettle, you come across as an aggressive poster who always wants his own way

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UK fatalities up 87 to 422 today.

Big jump and very sad but not as bad as I thought it might be given the trajectory of other countries.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, oldstandrobin said:

What pub did you run, I was a publican for 10 years and the bloke is a tw*t, dont accuse me of calling pot and kettle, you come across as an aggressive poster who always wants his own way

I didn't say the bloke wasn't a **** just that to boycott a place because the owner supported Brexit is childish. I can see why with the way he is treating staff someone might not want to patronise the place but not just because he supported leaving the EU that was my point which you seem to have overlooked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

UK fatalities up 87 to 422 today.

Big jump and very sad but not as bad as I thought it might be given the trajectory of other countries.

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

 

24 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

What hope have we got 🤔 or are they all macho men the virus wouldn't touch !!!!!!! these people are putting yours and my families life at risk, see references to Germany's figures and I bet this wont be happening there

Perhaps they are all Ukrainians from Chernobyl. Hardly matters then does it. 🤐

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, One Team In Keynsham said:

I see these tweets and continue to hope they are fake, and then consider the number of c>nts out there.

 

I see these tweets and continue to hope they are fake, and then consider the number of c>nts out there.

 

Probably more than we get for an average Home match

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

If you do not have an account with the Spectator that link will only let you read so far I believe which is why I copied a lot of it verbatum and just added my thoughts at the end. I should have added the source. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, pillred said:

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.

It will tell when the cases over flow the NHS bed capacity. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

It will tell when the cases over flow the NHS bed capacity. 

What I can't understand is in my experience with my wife and father in law is that even before this outbreak there didn't seem to be enough beds already so we are in trouble from day one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, pillred said:

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, QuedgeRed said:

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

Very true butfortunately we have a different demographic to Italy.

When did Italy bring in their lockdown - I understand that they did it twice as the first time it didn't work ?

Hopefully we don't go down the same route.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

Edited by bcfc01

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Fortunately we have a different demographic to Italy.

When did Italy bring in their lockdown - I understand that they did it twice as the first time it didn't work ?

Hopefully we don't go down the same route.

Didn`t they try and lock down one region (Lombardy?) but news got out and thousands legged it to other parts of the country? Mind you, it seems so long ago now that I could be mistaken.

Edited by Lanterne Rouge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

UK fatalities up 87 to 422 today.

Big jump and very sad but not as bad as I thought it might be given the trajectory of other countries.

Out of interest I just had a quick look at the death rate per day in the UK, for the last 100 years it's averaged 1450 per day, I wonder how significant this figure is in the overall picture. (obviously significant for those that died), but in a statistical view, could this just be a blip in years to come?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Maesknoll Red said:

Out of interest I just had a quick look at the death rate per day in the UK, for the last 100 years it's averaged 1450 per day, I wonder how significant this figure is in the overall picture. (obviously significant for those that died), but in a statistical view, could this just be a blip in years to come?

It certainly could but so far the evidence suggests there is reasons that it could not.

Deaths have so far been increasing an average of 30% a day. Today we had 87 deaths, up on 54 yesterday, which is actually a bigger jump than that.

The next week will tell quite a lot. If we get 30% rises each day again, we will be up to around 390 deaths a day. At that point it clearly goes beyond the blip. It all depends on how it increases. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

This is probably a totally stupid question but does anyone know if takeaways/chippies are exempt from the closures?

I went to one earlier that was operating a system of only 4 customers allowed in at a time, was in East London though 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, walnutroof said:

I went to one earlier that was operating a system of only 4 customers allowed in at a time, was in East London though 

 

19 minutes ago, joe jordans teeth said:

Most have closed,only a few will be doing deliveries 

Thanks chaps. We live in the middle of nowhere so didn`t want to drive eight miles just to find out they`re shut. I`ll assume they are I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, BCFC Grim said:

Another 743 in Italy in the last 24 hours.

New cases have gone down 2 days in a row maybe a glimmer. Hopefully anyway

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Super said:

New cases have gone down 2 days in a row maybe a glimmer. Hopefully anyway

4,789 new cases yesterday. 
5,239 new cases today. 
They’ve increased today by 450. 
Unless the site I’m using is wrong, they’re not coming down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Harry said:

4,789 new cases yesterday. 
5,239 new cases today. 
They’ve increased today by 450. 
Unless the site I’m using is wrong, they’re not coming down. 

I just heard on bbc news. Maybe they are wrong then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Harry said:

4,789 new cases yesterday. 
5,239 new cases today. 
They’ve increased today by 450. 
Unless the site I’m using is wrong, they’re not coming down. 

Pasted from BBC just now.

 

Posted at 18:03

Italy looks closely at infection rates

For the third day in a row, the infection rate here is slowing.

Some 54,030 people in Italy are confirmed to have coronavirus – that’s an increase of just over 7% on Monday's figures. It’s the slowest rise since the outbreak began and is now starting to look like a downward trend in new infections.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'Confused, dangerous, flippant': rest of world pans PM's handling of coronavirus

The international verdict on Boris Johnson and his zigzag handling of the pandemic has been damning, with responses ranging from bafflement and disbelief to anger.

Many consider the prime minister’s initial laissez-faire approach to the crisis, followed by contradictory signals about his government’s strategy, as an inexplicable bout of British exceptionalism.

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

On Sunday, Singapore’s national development minister, Lawrence Wong, said the UK and Switzerland had “abandoned any measure to contain or restrain the virus”.

The New York Times accused Johnson of sowing confusion. “He has seemed like a leader acting under duress ... playing catch-up to a private sector that had already acted on its own.”

Politicians, scientists and commentators greeted the prime minister’s U-turn on Monday night, when he ordered a UK-wide lockdown, as a belated but welcome decision to join the rest of Europe, and much of the world, in a necessary strategy.

The mystery is why it took so long.

Last week Ireland, which shares a land border with the UK, struggled to understand Downing Street’s hesitation. “Boris Johnson is gambling with the health of his citizens,” said the Irish Times.

On Tuesday, after the prime minister’s sudden reversal, one official in Dublin expressed relief. “The Brits were doing their own thing and it looked like we were going to have to live with it. They got there in the end.”

It was a variation of an observation attributed to Winston Churchill about America doing the right thing after exhausting all other options.

Foreign observers had become accustomed to Johnson’s breezy pronouncements on Britain steering its own course during Brexit showdowns last year but they winced at hearing the same tone in the context of a global health emergency.

He appeared at press conferences alongside the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, but instead of reassurance Vallance caused consternation by appearing to endorse the idea of allowing much of the population to become infected to develop “herd immunity”.

Last week the prime minister made an initial concession to physical distancing – a key tactic to slow contagion – by asking people to avoid pubs. But he did not close them and many people, including his own father, Stanley, cheerily said they still planned to go out for a drink. Nevertheless, Johnson expressed confidence such limited measures were working and could “turn the tide” within 12 weeks.

Many outsiders were aghast. The pandemic was out of control in Italy and Spain, killing thousands, and surging across the globe, prompting a scramble to emulate Chinese-style lockdowns.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, reportedly threatened to close France’s border with Britain last Friday if it did not intensify measures.

Others worried about the fate of friends and relatives in Britain. Giorgio Gori, the mayor of Bergamo, the city hardest hit by Italy’s coronavirus outbreak, flew his two daughters out of the UK, deeming them safer at home.

“When I saw what the English government was thinking about this problem, I decided to bring them back, because I think that even if we are at the centre of the epidemic, probably they are more secure here than in England, because I don’t understand why the government didn’t decide in time to protect their citizens,” he told Sky News.

Greece, an early adopter of draconian measures, also became alarmed. It has one of the largest overseas student communities in the UK, much of which has been repatriated and ordered into a 14-day quarantine. Athens suspended all flights to Britain on Monday until 15 April.

Not everyone lamented the UK’s foot-dragging.

On Monday, before Johnson’s U-turn, a son of Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, defended his father’s much-criticised response to the pandemic by citing Johnson.

Eduardo Bolsonaro tweeted a 22 March video of Johnson encouraging British citizens to use local parks. “Coronavirus is very serious but the country cannot stop,” he said. “The British prime minister advised his people to take exercise in public parks.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/confused-dangerous-flippant-worlds-media-pans-pms-handling-of-coronavirus-boris-johnson

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

On 10th march 14 days ago Italy had 631 deaths so a lot more than us at the same stage. our number increased 87 from yesterday the previous days figure in Italy 9th March was 168 lower so their increase was nearly twice ours we are no longer on the same trajectory it seems.

Edited by pillred
Add comments

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Stortz said:

'Confused, dangerous, flippant': rest of world pans PM's handling of coronavirus

The international verdict on Boris Johnson and his zigzag handling of the pandemic has been damning, with responses ranging from bafflement and disbelief to anger.

Many consider the prime minister’s initial laissez-faire approach to the crisis, followed by contradictory signals about his government’s strategy, as an inexplicable bout of British exceptionalism.

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

On Sunday, Singapore’s national development minister, Lawrence Wong, said the UK and Switzerland had “abandoned any measure to contain or restrain the virus”.

The New York Times accused Johnson of sowing confusion. “He has seemed like a leader acting under duress ... playing catch-up to a private sector that had already acted on its own.”

Politicians, scientists and commentators greeted the prime minister’s U-turn on Monday night, when he ordered a UK-wide lockdown, as a belated but welcome decision to join the rest of Europe, and much of the world, in a necessary strategy.

The mystery is why it took so long.

Last week Ireland, which shares a land border with the UK, struggled to understand Downing Street’s hesitation. “Boris Johnson is gambling with the health of his citizens,” said the Irish Times.

On Tuesday, after the prime minister’s sudden reversal, one official in Dublin expressed relief. “The Brits were doing their own thing and it looked like we were going to have to live with it. They got there in the end.”

It was a variation of an observation attributed to Winston Churchill about America doing the right thing after exhausting all other options.

Foreign observers had become accustomed to Johnson’s breezy pronouncements on Britain steering its own course during Brexit showdowns last year but they winced at hearing the same tone in the context of a global health emergency.

He appeared at press conferences alongside the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, but instead of reassurance Vallance caused consternation by appearing to endorse the idea of allowing much of the population to become infected to develop “herd immunity”.

Last week the prime minister made an initial concession to physical distancing – a key tactic to slow contagion – by asking people to avoid pubs. But he did not close them and many people, including his own father, Stanley, cheerily said they still planned to go out for a drink. Nevertheless, Johnson expressed confidence such limited measures were working and could “turn the tide” within 12 weeks.

Many outsiders were aghast. The pandemic was out of control in Italy and Spain, killing thousands, and surging across the globe, prompting a scramble to emulate Chinese-style lockdowns.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, reportedly threatened to close France’s border with Britain last Friday if it did not intensify measures.

Others worried about the fate of friends and relatives in Britain. Giorgio Gori, the mayor of Bergamo, the city hardest hit by Italy’s coronavirus outbreak, flew his two daughters out of the UK, deeming them safer at home.

“When I saw what the English government was thinking about this problem, I decided to bring them back, because I think that even if we are at the centre of the epidemic, probably they are more secure here than in England, because I don’t understand why the government didn’t decide in time to protect their citizens,” he told Sky News.

Greece, an early adopter of draconian measures, also became alarmed. It has one of the largest overseas student communities in the UK, much of which has been repatriated and ordered into a 14-day quarantine. Athens suspended all flights to Britain on Monday until 15 April.

Not everyone lamented the UK’s foot-dragging.

On Monday, before Johnson’s U-turn, a son of Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, defended his father’s much-criticised response to the pandemic by citing Johnson.

Eduardo Bolsonaro tweeted a 22 March video of Johnson encouraging British citizens to use local parks. “Coronavirus is very serious but the country cannot stop,” he said. “The British prime minister advised his people to take exercise in public parks.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/confused-dangerous-flippant-worlds-media-pans-pms-handling-of-coronavirus-boris-johnson

image.png

Oh the irony......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...